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OGLE-2018-BLG-0022: First Prediction of an Astrometric Microlensing Signal from a Photometric Microlensing Event

In this work, we present the analysis of the binary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0022 that is detected toward the Galactic bulge field. The dense and continuous coverage with the high-quality photometry data from ground-based observations combined with the space-based Spitzer observations of this long timescale event enables us to uniquely determine the masses M1=0.40 ± 0.05Me and M2=0.13 ± 0.01Me of the individual lens components. Because the lens-source relative parallax and the vector lens-source relative proper motion are unambiguously determined, we can likewise unambiguously predict the astrometric offset between the light centroid of the magnified images (as observed by the Gaia satellite) and the true position of the source. This prediction can be tested when the individual-epoch Gaia astrometric measurements are released.

Han, Cheongho

OGLE-2018-BLG-0022: First Prediction of an Astrometric Microlensing Signal from a Photometric Microlensing Event

In this work, we present the analysis of the binary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0022 that is detected toward the Galactic bulge field. The dense and continuous coverage with the high-quality photometry data from ground-based observations combined with the space-based Spitzer observations of this long timescale event enables us to uniquely determine the masses M 1 = 0.40 ± 0.05 M ⊙ and M 2 = 0.13 ± 0.01 M ⊙ of the individual lens components. Because the lens-source relative parallax and the vector lens-source relative proper motion are unambiguously determined, we can likewise unambiguously predict the astrometric offset between the light centroid of the magnified images (as observed by the Gaia satellite) and the true position of the source. This prediction can be tested when the individual-epoch Gaia astrometric measurements are released.

Cheongho Han

popclass: A Python Package for Classifying Microlensing Events

popclass is a Python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. Gravitational microlensing occurs when a massive foreground object (e.g., a star, white dwarf or black hole) passes in front of and lenses the light from a distant background source. This causes an apparent brightening, and shift in position, of the background source. In most cases, characteristics of the microlensing signal do not contain enough information to definitively identify the lens type. Different lens types lie in different but overlapping regions of the characteristics of the microlensing signal. For example, black holes tend to be more massive than stars and therefore cause microlensing signals that are longer. Current Galactic simulations enable us to predict where different lens types lie in the observational space and can therefore be used to classify events (e.g., Lam et al., 2020). popclass allows the user to match the characteristics of a microlensing signal with a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for the event (see Figure 1). Constraints on any microlensing signal properties and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to ArviZ (Kumar et al., 2019) and PyMultiNest (Buchner et al., 2014) for microlensing signal constraints, as well as pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and methods to quantify the classification uncertainty. The probabilistic framework for popclass was developed in Perkins et al. (2024), used in Fardeen et al. (2024) and has been applied to classifying events in Kaczmarek et al. (2025).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Spectroscopic Characterisation of Microlensing Events: Towards a New Interpretation of OGLE-2011-BLG-0417

The microlensing event OGLE-2011-BLG-0417 is an exceptionally bright lens binary that was predicted to present radial velocity variation at the level of several km s1. Pioneer radial velocity follow-up observations with the UVES spectrograph at the ESOVLT of this system clearly ruled out the large radial velocity variation, leaving a discrepancy between the observation and the prediction. In this paper, we further characterise the microlensing system by analysing its spectral energy distribution (SED) derived using the UVES spectrum and new observations with the ARCoIRIS (CTIO) near-infrared spectrograph and the Keck adaptive optics instrumentNIRC2 in the J, H, and Ks-bands. We determine the mass and distance of the stars independently from the microlensing modelling. We find that the SED is compatible with a giant star in the Galactic bulge and a foreground star with a mass of 0.94 +/- 0.09 M solar mass at a distance of 1.07 +/- 0.24 kpc. We find that this foreground star is likely the lens. Its parameters are not compatible with the onespreviously reported in the literature (0.52 +/- 0.04 M solar mass at 0.95 +/- 0.06 kpc), based on the microlensing light curve. A thoughtful reanalysis of the microlensing event is mandatory to fully understand the reason of this new discrepancy. More importantly, this paper demonstrates that spectroscopic follow-up observations of microlensing events are possible and provide independent constraints on the parameters of the lens and source stars, hence breaking some degeneracies in the analysis. UV-to-NIR low-resolution spectrographs like X-shooter (ESOVLT) could substantially contribute to this follow-up efforts, with magnitude limits above all microlensing events detected so far.

microlensing event OGLE-2011-BLG-0417

Stellar, Remnant, Planetary, and Dark-Object Masses from Astrometric Microlensing

The primary goal of our project is to make a complete census of the stellar population of the Galaxy. We are broadening the term stellar here to include both ordinary stars and dark stars. Ordinary stars, burning their nuclear fuel and shining, can perhaps best be studied with traditional astronomical techniques, but dark stars, by which we include old brown dwarfs, black holes, old white dwarfs, neutron stars, and perhaps exotic objects such as mirror matter stars or primordial black holes, can only be studied by their gravitational effects. Traditionally, these objects have been probed in binaries, and thus selected in a way that may or may not be representative of their respective field populations. The only way to examine the field population of these stars is through microlensing, the deflection of light from a visible star in the background by an object (dark or not) in the foreground. When lensed, there are two images of the background star. Although these images cannot be resolved when the lens has a stellar mass, the lensing effect can be detected in two ways: photometrically, i.e. by measuring the magnification of the source by the lens, and astrometrically, i.e. by measuring the shift in the centroid of the two images. Photometric microlensing experiments have detected hundreds of microlensing events over the past decade. Despite its successes, photometric microlensing has so far been somewhat frustrating because these events are difficult to interpret. Almost nothing is known about the masses of individual lenses and very little is known about the statistical properties of the lenses treated as a whole, such as their average mass. Although probably over 100 of the lenses are in fact dark objects, we can't determine which they are, let alone investigate finer details such as what their masses are, and where they are in the Galaxy. With SIM, we will break the microlensing degeneracy, and allow detailed interpretation of individual microlensing events. We will thus develop a detailed census of the dark and luminous stellar population of the Galaxy.

Gould, Andrew P.

The Frequency of Snowline-Region Planets from Four Years of OGLE-MOA-Wise Second-Generation Microlensing

We present a statistical analysis of the first four seasons from a second-generation microlensing survey for extrasolar planets, consisting of near-continuous time coverage of 8 deg to the 2nd power of the Galactic bulge by the Optical Gravitational Lens Experiment (OGLE), Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA), and Wise microlensing surveys. During this period, 224 microlensing events were observed by all three groups. Over 12% of the events showed a deviation from single-lens microlensing, and for approx. 1/3 of those the anomaly is likely caused by a planetary companion. For each of the 224 events, we have performed numerical ray-tracing simulations to calculate the detection efficiency of possible companions as a function of companion-to-host mass ratio and separation. Accounting for the detection efficiency, we find that 55 +34 -22%of microlensed stars host a snowline planet. Moreover, we find that Neptune-mass planets are approx.10 times more common than Jupiter-mass planets. The companion-to-host mass-ratio distribution shows a deficit at q approx. 10 (exp -2), separating the distribution into two companion populations, analogous to the stellar-companion and planet populations, seen in radial-velocity surveys around solar-like stars. Our survey, however, which probes mainly lower mass stars, suggests a minimum in the distribution in the super-Jupiter mass range, and a relatively high occurrence of brown-dwarf companions.

extrasolar planets

Application of Compressive Sensing for Gravitational Microlensing Events

Compressive sensing is a novel mathematical technique for simultaneous data acquisition and compression. This technique is particularly apt for time-series photometric measurements. In this work we apply compressive sensing to time-series photometric measurements specifically obtained due to gravitational microlensing events. We show through simulation modelling the error sensitivity for detecting microlensing event parameters. Particularly, we show the relation of the amount of error and its impact on the microlensing parameters of interest. We derive statistical error bounds to apply those as a baseline for analyzing the effectiveness of compressive sensing application. Our results conclude that for single and binary microlensing events we can obtain error less than 1% over a 3-pixel radius of the center of the microlensing star by using 25% Nyquist rate measurements.

Compressive Sensing

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Gravitational microlensing - The effect of a single lens and the impact of sparse sampling

Topics in gravitational microlensing are examined. One issue is that even in cases in which the surface mass density is quite low, microlensing events cannot be considered as caused by individual stars. Whenever a high-magnification event occurs, the quasar has crossed a caustic. These caustics, however, are complex structures even for low surface-mass densities. This is illustrated by removing a single low-mass star from an ensemble of microlenses. The magnification patterns and light curves are compared with and without this star. The differences are striking and much more complex than expected. The effect of sparse sampling on the perception of microlensed light curves is examined, and attention is given to the influence of poor time coverage on simulated light curves. A regular monitoring program for microlensing candidates (especially 2237 + 0305) with a dedicated telescope is needed to make observations in different wavebands each night.

Wambsganss, Joachim

Probability of Detecting Planets with Microlensing

The proposed research to determine the probability of detecting extra solar planets from the ground with microlensing was completely accomplished during the grant period. A summary of the publications and their abstracts follow below. The publications include: 1) On microlensing rates and optical depth toward the Galactic center; 2) Newly discovered brown dwarfs not seen in microlensing timescale frequency distribution? 3) Probability of detecting a planetary companion during a microlensing event; 4) Comparison of a ground-based microlensing search for planets with a search from space; 5) Secular evolution of hierarchical planetary systems.

Peale, S. J.

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

The First Simultaneous Microlensing Observations by Two Space Telescopes: Spitzer and Swift Reveal a Brown Dwarf in Event OGLE-2015-BLG-1319

Simultaneous observations of microlensing events from multiple locations allow for the breaking of degeneracies between the physical properties of the lensing system, specifically by exploring different regions of the lens plane and by directly measuring the "microlens parallax". We report the discovery of a 30-65M J brown dwarf orbiting a K dwarf in the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1319. The system is located at a distance of approximately 5 kpc toward the Galactic Bulge. The event was observed by several ground-based groups as well as by Spitzer and Swift, allowing a measurement of the physical properties. However, the event is still subject to an eight-fold degeneracy, in particular the well-known close-wide degeneracy, and thus the projected separation between the two lens components is either approximately 0.25 au or approximately 45 au. This is the first microlensing event observed by Swift, with the UVOT camera. We study the region of microlensing parameter space to which Swift is sensitive, finding that though Swift could not measure the microlens parallax with respect to ground-based observations for this event, it can be important for other events. Specifically, it is important for detecting nearby brown dwarfs and free-floating planets in high magnification events.

microlensing events

Compressive Sensing Based Space Flight Instrument Constellation for Measuring Gravitational Microlensing Parallax

In this work, we provide a compressive sensing architecture for implementing on a space based observatory for detecting transient photometric parallax caused by gravitational microlensing events. Compressive sensing (CS) is a simultaneous data acquisition and compression technique, which can greatly reduce on-board resources required for space flight data storage and ground transmission. We simulate microlensing parallax observations using a space observatory constellation, based on CS detectors. Our results show that average CS error is less than 0.5% using 25% Nyquist rate samples. The error at peak magnification time is significantly lower than the error for distinguishing any two microlensing parallax curves at their peak magnification. Thus, CS is an enabling technology for detecting microlensing parallax, without causing any loss in detection accuracy.

compressive sensing

An Isolated Mass-gap Black Hole or Neutron Star Detected with Astrometric Microlensing

We present the analysis of five black hole candidates identified from gravitational microlensing surveys. Hubble Space Telescope astrometric data and densely sampled light curves from ground-based microlensing surveys are fit with a single-source, single-lens microlensing model in order to measure the mass and luminosity of each lens and determine if it is a black hole. One of the five targets (OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 or OB110462 for short) shows a significant >1 mas coherent astrometric shift, little to no lens flux, and has an inferred lens mass of 1.6–4.4 M ⨀ . This makes OB110462 the first definitive discovery of a compact object through astrometric microlensing and it is most likely either a neutron star or a low-mass black hole. This compact-object lens is relatively nearby (0.70–1.92 kpc) and has a slow transverse motion of <30 kms -1 . OB110462 shows significant tension between models well fit to photometry versus astrometry, making it currently difficult to distinguish between a neutron star and a black hole. Additional observations and modeling with more complex system geometries, such as binary sources, are needed to resolve the puzzling nature of this object. For the remaining four candidates, the lens masses are <2M ⨀ , and they are unlikely to be black holes; two of the four are likely white dwarfs or neutron stars. We compare the full sample of five candidates to theoretical expectations on the number of black holes in the Milky Way (∼10 8 ) and find reasonable agreement given the small sample size.

Astrophysical black holes

Gravitational microlensing at large optical depth

A large number of numerical models of gravitational microlensing by stars in the lensing galaxy have been calculated, and properties of the models are described. The expected light intensity variations are more rapid when optical depth to microlensing is large, but the time scale is a few years in the best cases, and much longer in a typical case. However, microlensing introduces considerable scatter, up to two or three orders of magnitude, to the intensity of macroimages expected at any given time, and this may considerably complicate the analysis of the observed lenses. It is shown that macroimage is surrounded with a faint 'halo' made of a large number of microimages from individual stars with average surface brightness falling off as R to the -4th. It is also shown that a high surface mass density of continuously distributed matter may affect very strongly properties of microlensing, making possible very large declines in observed intensity, up to two or three orders of magnitude.

Paczynski, B.

An analytic treatment of gravitational microlensing for sources of finite size at large optical depths

Statistical methods are developed for gravitational lensing in order to obtain analytic expressions for the average surface brightness that include the effects of microlensing by stellar (or other compact) masses within the lensing galaxy. The primary advance here is in utilizing a Markoff technique to obtain expressions that are valid for sources of finite size when the surface density of mass in the lensing galaxy is large. The finite size of the source is probably the key consideration for the occurrence of microlensing by individual stars. For the intensity from a particular location, the parameter which governs the importance of microlensing is determined. Statistical methods are also formulated to assess the time variation of the surface brightness due to the random motion of the masses that cause the microlensing.

Deguchi, Shuji

On the universality of microlensing in quadruple gravitational lenses

It is well known that multiply imaged quasars are likely to be affected by microlensing. Quadruply imaged systems are especially useful laboratories for studying microlensing because their macrolens models are relatively well constrained. We begin with analytical results for a simple family of galaxy models. These results can be used to estimate the magnifications and time delays for the quadruple systems. We compute expected brightness fluctuations due to microlensing in several such systems for a range of source sizes. Among these we treat for the first time the limiting case of a completely unresolved source. For the case of MG 0414+0534 we interpret the discrepant optical-to-radio flux ratios for the different components as the result of microlensing. On the assumption that the lensing galaxy is roughly isothermal this gives a 95% confidence upper limit on the optical source size of 10(exp 16) cm x (mean value of M)/0.1 solar mass(exp 1/2) where (M) is the average stellar mass of the lensing galaxy. For more centrally concentrated macromodels the upper limit is greater. Sufficiently long strings of photometric observations can in principle constrain the degree of concentration.

Witt, Hans J.

Dynamics and Origin of Extra-solar Planetary Systems and Microlensing Detection of Extra-solar Planets

We compare a space-based microlensing search for planets, with a ground based microlensing search originally proposed by D. Tytler (Beichman, et al. 1996). Perturbations of microlensing light curves when the lens star has a planetary companion are sought by one wide angle survey telescope and an array of three or four followup narrow angle telescopes distributed in longitude that follow events with high precision, high time resolution photometry. Alternative ground based programs are considered briefly. With the four 2 meter telescopes distributed in longitude in the southern hemisphere in the Tytler proposal, observational constraints on a ground-based search for planets during microlensing events toward the center of the galaxy are severe. Probably less than 100 events could be monitored per year with high precision, high time resolution photometry with only about 42% coverage on the average regardless of how many events were discovered by the survey telescope. Statistics for the occurrence and properties for Jupiter-mass planets would be meaningful but relatively meager four years after the program was started, and meaningful statistics for Earth-mass planets would be non existent. In contrast, the 14,500 events in a proposed 4 year space based program (GEST = Galactic Exoplanet Survey Telescope) would yield very sound statistics on the occurrence, masses and separations of Jupiter-mass planets, and significant constraints on similar properties for Earth-mass planets. The significance of the Jupiter statistics would be to establish the frequency of planetary systems like our own, where terrestrial planets could exist inside the orbits of the giants.

Peale, S. J.