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At least 19 records

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David↗

Piecewise linear approximation with minimum number of linear segments and minimum error: A fast approach to tighten and warm start the hierarchical mixed integer formulation

In several areas of economics and engineering, it is often necessary to fit discrete data points or approximate nonlinear functions with continuous functions. Piecewise linear (PWL) functions are a convenient way to achieve this. PWL functions can be modeled in mathematical problems using only linear and integer variables. Moreover, there is a computational benefit in using PWL functions that have the least possible number of segments. This work proposes a novel hierarchical mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation that identifies a continuous PWL approximation with minimum number of linear segments for a given target maximum error. The proposed MILP formulation also identifies the solution with the least maximum error among the solutions with minimum number of segments. Then, this work proposes a fast iterative algorithm that identifies non necessarily continuous PWL approximations by solving O(S log N) linear programming (LP) problems, where N is the number of data points and S is the minimum number of segments in the non necessarily continuous case. This work demonstrates that tight bounds for the MILP problem can be derived from these approximations. Next, a fast algorithm is introduced to transform a non necessarily continuous PWL approximation into a continuous one. Finally, the tight bounds and the continuous PWL approximations are used to tighten and warm start the MILP problem. The tightened formulation is shown in experimental results to be more efficient, especially for large data sets, with a solution time that is up to two orders of magnitude less than the existing literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Relaxed states of MHD turbulence - Minimum dissipation or minimum energy?

The results of driven, steady-state MHD computations are described by adapting the principle of minimum energy dissipation rate to MHD. It is argued that there is a variational principle that is as useful for the driven, steady-state problem as the minimum energy principle is for isolated mechanical systems, particularly for fluids and magnetofluids. Driven, dissipative MHD is reexamined from the standpoint of minimum-dissipation-rate principles.

Montgomery, David↗

Minimum-variance reduced-order estimation algorithms from Pontrygin's minimum principle

A uniform derivation of minimum-variance reduced-order (MVRO) filter-smoother algorithms from Pontrygin's Minimum Principle is presented. An appropriate performance index for a general class of reduced order estimation problem is formulated herein to yield optimal results over the entire time interval of estimation. These results provide quantitative criteria for measuring the performance of certain classes of heuristically designed, suboptimal reduced-order estimators as well as explicit guidance to the suboptimal filter design process with both continuous and discrete filter-smoother algorithms being considered. By the duality principle, the algorithms of reduced-order estimation can be easily extended to the deterministic problems of optimal control (i.e., the regulator and linear tracking problem).

Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S.↗

Optimal dual-fuel propulsion for minimum inert weight or minimum fuel cost

An analytical investigation of single-stage vehicles with multiple propulsion phases has been conducted with the phasing optimized to minimize a general cost function. Some results are presented for linearized sizing relationships which indicate that single-stage-to-orbit, dual-fuel rocket vehicles can have lower inert weight than similar single-fuel rocket vehicles and that the advantage of dual-fuel vehicles can be increased if a dual-fuel engine is developed. The results also indicate that the optimum split can vary considerably with the choice of cost function to be minimized.

Martin, J. A.↗

Measurements of the ambient photoelectron spectrum from Atmosphere Explorer. I - AE-E measurements below 300 km during solar minimum conditions. II - AE-E measurements from 300 to 1000 km during solar minimum conditions

A study is presented of the ambient photoelectron spectrum below 300 km which includes 500 AE-E orbits observed from Dec. 13, 1975 to Feb. 24, 1976. The daytime photoelectron spectrum from 1 to 100 eV was illustrated by several spectra; high resolution 10-32 eV spectra show the widths of the photoelectron lines and the variation of the linewidth and intensity with altitude. The photoelectron flux below 300 km is constant over a period of several months; the photoelectron lines between 20 and 30 eV are very sharp when the total plasma density is low, but broaden at high altitudes as the plasma density builds up during the day. The photo-electron flux above 300 km had an intensity and energy spectrum characteristic of the 250-300 km region only in the presence of low plasma density at the satellite altitude. The flux at high altitudes was extremely variable 3 h after sunrise as a result of attenuation and energy loss to thermal plasma along the path of escaping electrons.

Lee, J. S.↗

Achieving spectrum conservation for the minimum-span and minimum-order frequency assignment problems

Effective and efficient solutions of frequency assignment problems assumes increasing importance as the radiofrequency spectrum experiences ever increasing utilization by diverse communications services, requiring that the most efficient use of this resource be achieved. The research presented explores a general approach to the frequency assignment problem, in which such problems are categorized by the appropriate spectrum conserving objective function, and are each treated as an N-job, M-machine scheduling problem appropriate for the objective. Results obtained and presented illustrate that such an approach presents an effective means of achieving spectrum conserving frequency assignments for communications systems in a variety of environments.

Heyward, Ann O.↗

Achieving spectrum conservation for the minimum span and minimum-order frequency assignment problems

Effective and efficient solution of frequency assignment problems assumes increasing importance as the radiofrequency spectrum experiences ever-increasing utilization by diverse communications services, requiring that the most efficient use of this resource be achieved. The research presented explores a general approach to the frequency assignment problem, in which such problems are categorized by the appropriate spectrum-conserving objective function, and are each treated as an N-job, M-machine scheduling problem appropriate for the objective. Results obtained and presented illustrate that such an approach presents an effective means of achieving spectrum-conserving frequency assignments for communications systems in a variety of environments.

Heyward, Ann O.↗

Nonlinear control of the minimum safety factor in tokamaks by optimal allocation of spatially moving electron cyclotron current drive

The minimum value of the safety factor profile is related to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of the plasma confined in a tokamak. Therefore, active control of the minimum safety factor may mitigate MHD instabilities that can degrade or even terminate plasma confinement. Typically, in most tokamak scenarios, the minimum safety factor evolves spatially with time, i.e., the location at which the safety factor achieves the minimum value changes with time. In addition to the inherent nonlinearities in the minimum safety factor evolution, its spatial variation makes the control design challenging. In particular, complexity in control design may arise from the need for time-dependent nonlinear models that account for spatial variation of the minimum safety factor. Furthermore, the minimum safety factor may drift to locations where the actuator authority is low. The problem of minimum safety factor control with target location tracking and moving electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) is addressed in this work. A nonlinear time-dependent model that incorporates the spatial variation of the minimum safety factor is presented. A nonlinear controller based on optimal feedback linearization is developed to track a target minimum safety factor. The proposed controller treats the ECCD position as a controllable variable. In other words, the controller prescribes the ECCD position (in addition to the non-inductive powers) in real time based on an optimal criterion that is defined a priori. This work also presents the steps necessary to integrate the minimum safety factor controller with a total energy controller to achieve multiple control objectives simultaneously. In conclusion, the proposed integrated control algorithm is tested using nonlinear simulations in the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) for a DIII-D tokamak scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

XMM-Newton Observations of the 2003 X-Ray Minimum of Eta Carinae

The XMM-Newton X-ray observatory took part in the multi-wavelength observing campaign of the massive, evolved star Eta Carinae in 2003 during its recent X-ray minimum in June 2003. This paper reports on the first results of these observations, which were performed (1) before the minimum (five times in January, 2003), (2) near the X-ray maximum just before the minimum (two times in June) and (3) during the minimum (four times in July-August). Hard X-ray emission from the point source of Eta Carinae was detected even during the minimum. The observed flux above 3 keV was approx. 3x10(exp -12) ergs cm(exp -2)/s, which is about one percent of the flux before the minimum. Light curves from the individual observations show no time variability on the scale of a few kilo-seconds. Changes in the spectral shape occurred, but these changes were smaller than expected if the minimum is produced solely by an increase of hydrogen column density. Fits of the hard X-Ray source by an absorbed 1T model show a constant plasma temperature at around 5 keV and an increase of column density from 5x10(exp 22) cm(exp -2) to 2x10(exp 23) cm(exp -2). The spectra below 6 keV significantly deviate from the models that fit the higher energy emission. The X-ray minimum seems to be dominated by an apparent decrease of the emission measure, suggesting that the brightest part of the X-ray emitting region is completely obscured during the minimum in the form of an eclipse. Partial covering plasma emission models might be considered for the spectral variation. The spectra also showed strong iron K line emission from both hot and cold gases, and weak line emission from Ni, Ca, Ar, S and Si.

Hamaguchi, K.↗

Minimum time and fuel flight profiles for an F-15 airplane with a Highly Integrated Digital Electronic Control (HIDEC) system

A simulation study was conducted to optimize minimum time and fuel consumption paths for an F-15 airplane powered by two F100 Engine Model Derivative (EMD) engines. The benefits of using variable stall margin (uptrim) to increase performance were also determined. This study supports the NASA Highly Integrated Digital Electronic Control (HIDEC) program. The basis for this comparison was minimum time and fuel used to reach Mach 2 at 13,716 m (45,000 ft) from the initial conditions of Mach 0.15 at 1524 m (5000 ft). Results were also compared to a pilot's estimated minimum time and fuel trajectory determined from the F-15 flight manual and previous experience. The minimum time trajectory took 15 percent less time than the pilot's estimate for the standard EMD engines, while the minimum fuel trajectory used 1 percent less fuel than the pilot's estimate for the minimum fuel trajectory. The F-15 airplane with EMD engines and uptrim, was 23 percent faster than the pilot's estimate. The minimum fuel used was 5 percent less than the estimate.

Haering, E. A., Jr.↗

Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and its Consequences: An Update

This Technical Publication updates estimates for cycle 24 minimum and discusses consequences associated with cycle 23 being a longer than average period cycle and cycle 24 having parametric minimum values smaller (or larger for the case of spotless days) than long term medians. Through December 2007, cycle 23 has persisted 140 mo from its 12-mo moving average (12-mma) minimum monthly mean sunspot number occurrence date (May 1996). Longer than average period cycles of the modern era (since cycle 12) have minimum-to-minimum periods of about 139.0+/-6.3 mo (the 90-percent prediction interval), inferring that cycle 24 s minimum monthly mean sunspot number should be expected before July 2008. The major consequence of this is that, unless cycle 24 is a statistical outlier (like cycle 21), its maximum amplitude (RM) likely will be smaller than previously forecast. If, however, in the course of its rise cycle 24 s 12-mma of the weighted mean latitude (L) of spot groups exceeds 24 deg, then one expects RM >131, and if its 12-mma of highest latitude (H) spot groups exceeds 38 deg, then one expects RM >127. High-latitude new cycle spot groups, while first reported in January 2008, have not, as yet, become the dominant form of spot groups. Minimum values in L and H were observed in mid 2007 and values are now slowly increasing, a precondition for the imminent onset of the new sunspot cycle.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

LDPC Codes with Minimum Distance Proportional to Block Size

Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes characterized by minimum Hamming distances proportional to block sizes have been demonstrated. Like the codes mentioned in the immediately preceding article, the present codes are error-correcting codes suitable for use in a variety of wireless data-communication systems that include noisy channels. The previously mentioned codes have low decoding thresholds and reasonably low error floors. However, the minimum Hamming distances of those codes do not grow linearly with code-block sizes. Codes that have this minimum-distance property exhibit very low error floors. Examples of such codes include regular LDPC codes with variable degrees of at least 3. Unfortunately, the decoding thresholds of regular LDPC codes are high. Hence, there is a need for LDPC codes characterized by both low decoding thresholds and, in order to obtain acceptably low error floors, minimum Hamming distances that are proportional to code-block sizes. The present codes were developed to satisfy this need. The minimum Hamming distances of the present codes have been shown, through consideration of ensemble-average weight enumerators, to be proportional to code block sizes. As in the cases of irregular ensembles, the properties of these codes are sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. A code having too few such nodes tends to have an iterative decoding threshold that is far from the capacity threshold. A code having too many such nodes tends not to exhibit a minimum distance that is proportional to block size. Results of computational simulations have shown that the decoding thresholds of codes of the present type are lower than those of regular LDPC codes. Included in the simulations were a few examples from a family of codes characterized by rates ranging from low to high and by thresholds that adhere closely to their respective channel capacity thresholds; the simulation results from these examples showed that the codes in question have low error floors as well as low decoding thresholds. As an example, the illustration shows the protograph (which represents the blueprint for overall construction) of one proposed code family for code rates greater than or equal to 1.2. Any size LDPC code can be obtained by copying the protograph structure N times, then permuting the edges. The illustration also provides Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) hardware performance simulations for this code family. In addition, the illustration provides minimum signal-to-noise ratios (Eb/No) in decibels (decoding thresholds) to achieve zero error rates as the code block size goes to infinity for various code rates. In comparison with the codes mentioned in the preceding article, these codes have slightly higher decoding thresholds.

Divsalar, Dariush↗

Oxide Solubility Minimum in Liquid Fe-M-O Alloy

The origin of the solubility minimum of oxide (M{sub x}O{sub y}) in liquid Fe-M-O alloy was investigated, and the minimum was predicted based on thermodynamic calculations. Due to the characteristic property of activities of M and O in the liquid, a maximum exists in the product between the two activities if the affinity of M to O is significantly high, as most deoxidizing elements are. A critical activity product is defined, which is an indicator of the solubility minimum of the M{sub x}O{sub y} in the liquid Fe-M-O alloy according to the following relationship: max(a{sub M}{sup x}×a{sub O{sub -}{sup y}})=K{sub M{sub xO{sub y}}}×a{sub M{sub xO{sub y}}}, where the a{sub M{sub xO{sub y}}} is unity if the alloy is in equilibrium with the pure M{sub x}O{sub y}. The origin of the solubility minimum was explained using the change of the activity product by composition. Available CALPHAD assessments for several binary Fe-M liquid alloys and Wagner’s solvation shell model were combined to calculate the activity product in the Fe-M-O alloy, which can be used to predict the solubility minimum of M{sub x}O{sub y}. A favorable agreement was obtained when M=Al, B, Cr, Mn, Nb, Si, Ta, Ti, V, and Zr. The Gibbs energy of dissolution of O in pure liquid M (Δg{sub O{sub -(M)}{sup ∘}}) and the Gibbs energy of the formation of M{sub x}O{sub y} per mole of atoms (Δg{sub M{sub xO{sub y}{sup ∘}}}/(x+y)) play important roles in determining the solubility minimum, as long as an interaction between Fe and M is less significant than the interaction between metal (Fe and M) and O. Predictions of the solubility minima of CaO and MgO were not satisfactory, requiring further improvement of the present analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗