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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death’s ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2015

An algorithm for charge-integration, pulse-shape discrimination and estimation of neutron/photon misclassification in organic scintillators

Organic scintillators are frequently used for measurements that require sensitivity to both photons and fast neutrons because of their pulse shape discrimination capabilities. In these measurement scenarios, particle identification is commonly handled using the charge-integration pulse shape discrimination method. This method works particularly well for high-energy depositions, but is prone to misclassification for relatively low-energy depositions. A novel algorithm has been developed for automatically performing charge-integration pulse shape discrimination in a consistent and repeatable manner. The algorithm is able to estimate the photon and neutron misclassification corresponding to the calculated discrimination parameters, and is capable of doing so using only the information measured by a single organic scintillator. This paper describes the algorithm and assesses its performance by comparing algorithm-estimated misclassification to values computed via a more traditional time-of-flight estimation. A single data set was processed using four different low-energy thresholds: 40, 60, 90, and 120 keVee. Overall, the results compared well between the two methods; in most cases, the algorithm-estimated values fell within the uncertainties of the TOF-estimated values.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Case studies in bias reduction and inference for electronic health record data with selection bias and phenotype misclassification

Electronic health records (EHR) are not designed for population‐based research, but they provide easy and quick access to longitudinal health information for a large number of individuals. Many statistical methods have been proposed to account for selection bias, missing data, phenotyping errors, or other problems that arise in EHR data analysis. However, addressing multiple sources of bias simultaneously is challenging. We developed a methodological framework (R package, SAMBA ) for jointly handling both selection bias and phenotype misclassification in the EHR setting that leverages external data sources. These methods assume factors related to selection and misclassification are fully observed, but these factors may be poorly understood and partially observed in practice. As a follow‐up to the methodological work, we demonstrate how to apply these methods for two real‐world case studies, and we evaluate their performance. In both examples, we use individual patient‐level data collected through the University of Michigan Health System and various external population‐based data sources. In case study (a), we explore the impact of these methods on estimated associations between gender and cancer diagnosis. In case study (b), we compare corrected associations between previously identified genetic loci and age‐related macular degeneration with gold standard external summary estimates. These case studies illustrate how to utilize diverse auxiliary information to achieve less biased inference in EHR‐based research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impact of Misclassification Rates on Compression Efficiency of Red Blood Cell Images of Malaria Infection Using Deep Learning

Malaria is a severe public health problem worldwide, with some developing countries being most affected. Reliable remote diagnosis of malaria infection will benefit from efficient compression of high-resolution microscopic images. This paper addresses a lossless compression of malaria-infected red blood cell images using deep learning. Specifically, we investigate a practical approach where images are first classified before being compressed using stacked autoencoders. We provide probabilistic analysis on the impact of misclassification rates on compression performance in terms of the information-theoretic measure of entropy. We then use malaria infection image datasets to evaluate the relations between misclassification rates and actually obtainable compressed bit rates using Golomb–Rice codes. Simulation results show that the joint pattern classification/compression method provides more efficient compression than several mainstream lossless compression techniques, such as JPEG2000, JPEG-LS, CALIC, and WebP, by exploiting common features extracted by deep learning on large datasets. This study provides new insight into the interplay between classification accuracy and compression bitrates. The proposed compression method can find useful telemedicine applications where efficient storage and rapid transfer of large image datasets is desirable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Improved UTE-based attenuation correction for cranial PET-MR using dynamic magnetic field monitoring

Purpose: Ultrashort echo time (UTE) MRI has been proposed as a way to produce segmented attenuation maps for PET, as it provides contrast between bone, air, and soft tissue. However, UTE sequences require samples to be acquired during rapidly changing gradient fields, which makes the resulting images prone to eddy current artifacts. In this work it is demonstrated that this can lead to misclassification of tissues in segmented attenuation maps (AC maps) and that these effects can be corrected for by measuring the true k-space trajectories using a magnetic field camera. Methods: The k-space trajectories during a dual echo UTE sequence were measured using a dynamic magnetic field camera. UTE images were reconstructed using nominal trajectories and again using the measured trajectories. A numerical phantom was used to demonstrate the effect of reconstructing with incorrect trajectories. Images of an ovine leg phantom were reconstructed and segmented and the resulting attenuation maps were compared to a segmented map derived from a CT scan of the same phantom, using the Dice similarity measure. The feasibility of the proposed method was demonstrated inin vivo cranial imaging in five healthy volunteers. Simulated PET data were generated for one volunteer to show the impact of misclassifications on the PET reconstruction. Results: Images of the numerical phantom exhibited blurring and edge artifacts on the bone–tissue and air–tissue interfaces when nominal k-space trajectories were used, leading to misclassification of soft tissue as bone and misclassification of bone as air. Images of the tissue phantom and thein vivo cranial images exhibited the same artifacts. The artifacts were greatly reduced when the measured trajectories were used. For the tissue phantom, the Dice coefficient for bone in MR relative to CT was 0.616 using the nominal trajectories and 0.814 using the measured trajectories. The Dice coefficients for soft tissue were 0.933 and 0.934 for the nominal and measured cases, respectively. For air the corresponding figures were 0.991 and 0.993. Compared to an unattenuated reference image, the mean error in simulated PET uptake in the brain was 9.16% when AC maps derived from nominal trajectories was used, with errors in the SUV{sub max} for simulated lesions in the range of 7.17%–12.19%. Corresponding figures when AC maps derived from measured trajectories were used were 0.34% (mean error) and −0.21% to +1.81% (lesions). Conclusions: Eddy current artifacts in UTE imaging can be corrected for by measuring the true k-space trajectories during a calibration scan and using them in subsequent image reconstructions. This improves the accuracy of segmented PET attenuation maps derived from UTE sequences and subsequent PET reconstruction.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting nepheline precipitation in waste glasses using ternary submixture model and machine learning

Nepheline precipitation in nuclear waste glasses during vitrification can be detrimental due to its negative effect on chemical durability. Developing models to accurately predict nepheline precipitation from compositions is important to increase waste loading since existing models can be overly conservative. In this study, an expanded dataset containing 955 glasses was compiled from literature data, where 355 glasses are for high-level waste (HLW). Previously developed submixture models were refitted using the new dataset, where a misclassification rate of 7.8% was achieved. Nine machine learning (ML) algorithms (e.g., k-nearest neighbor, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, etc.) were applied to evaluate their ability of predicting nepheline precipitation from compositions. Model accuracy, precision, recall/sensitivity, and F1 score were systemically compared between different ML algorithms and modeling protocols. Good model prediction with an accuracy ~0.9 (misclassification rate of ~10%) was observed with different algorithms under certain protocol. This study evaluated various ML models to predict nepheline precipitations in waste glasses, highlighting the importance of data preparation, modeling protocol, and their effect on model stability and reproducibility. The results provide insights into applying ML to predict glass properties and suggest areas for future research on modeling nepheline precipitations.

Lu, Xiaonan↗
DOE OSTI2018

Discrimination of Anthropogenic Events and Tectonic Earthquakes in Utah Using a Quadratic Discriminant Function Approach with Local Distance Amplitude Ratios

Most of the commonly used seismic discrimination approaches are designed for teleseismic and regional data. To monitor for the smallest events, some of these discriminants have been adapted for local distances (< 200 km), with mixed level of success. For this, we take advantage of the variety of seismic sources, including nontraditionally studied anthropogenic sources and the existence of a dense regional seismic network in the Utah region to evaluate amplitude ratio seismic discrimination at local distances. First, we explored phase-amplitude Pg-to-Sg ratios for multiple frequency bands to classify events in a dataset that comprises populations of single-shot surface explosions, shallow and deep ripple-fired mining blasts, mining-induced events (MIEs), and tectonic earthquakes. We achieved a success rate of about 59%–83%. Then, for the same dataset, we combined the Pg-to-Sg phase-amplitude ratios with Sg-to-Rg spectral amplitude ratios in a multivariate quadratic discriminant function (QDF) approach. For two-category pairwise classification, seven of ten population pairs show misclassification rates of about 20% or less, with five pairs showing rates of about 10% or less. The approach performs best for the pair involving the populations of single-shot explosions and MIEs. By combining both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios in the multivariate QDFs, we are able to achieve an average improvement of about 4%–14% in misclassification rates compared with Pg-to-Sg ratios alone. When all five event populations are considered simultaneously, as expected, the potential for misclassification increases, and our QDF approach using both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios achieves an average success rate of about 74% compared with the rate of about 86% for two-category pairwise classification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modeling Pathologic Response of Esophageal Cancer to Chemoradiation Therapy Using Spatial-Temporal {sup 18}F-FDG PET Features, Clinical Parameters, and Demographics

Purpose: To construct predictive models using comprehensive tumor features for the evaluation of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT) in patients with esophageal cancer. Methods and Materials: This study included 20 patients who underwent trimodality therapy (CRT + surgery) and underwent {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) both before and after CRT. Four groups of tumor features were examined: (1) conventional PET/CT response measures (eg, standardized uptake value [SUV]{sub max}, tumor diameter); (2) clinical parameters (eg, TNM stage, histology) and demographics; (3) spatial-temporal PET features, which characterize tumor SUV intensity distribution, spatial patterns, geometry, and associated changes resulting from CRT; and (4) all features combined. An optimal feature set was identified with recursive feature selection and cross-validations. Support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models were constructed for prediction of pathologic tumor response to CRT, cross-validations being used to avoid model overfitting. Prediction accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and precision was evaluated by confidence intervals (CIs) of AUC. Results: When applied to the 4 groups of tumor features, the LR model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.10), 0.73 (0.07), 0.90 (0.06), and 0.90 (0.06). The SVM model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.56 (0.07), 0.60 (0.06), 0.94 (0.02), and 1.00 (no misclassifications). With the use of spatial-temporal PET features combined with conventional PET/CT measures and clinical parameters, the SVM model achieved very high accuracy (AUC 1.00) and precision (no misclassifications)—results that were significantly better than when conventional PET/CT measures or clinical parameters and demographics alone were used. For groups with many tumor features (groups 3 and 4), the SVM model achieved significantly higher accuracy than did the LR model. Conclusions: The SVM model that used all features including spatial-temporal PET features accurately and precisely predicted pathologic tumor response to CRT in esophageal cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated, scalable and reproducible AI-driven gravitational wave detection

The development of reusable artificial intelligence (AI) models for wider use and rigorous validation by the community promises to unlock new opportunities in multi-messenger astrophysics. Here we develop a workflow that connects the Data and Learning Hub for Science, a repository for publishing AI models, with the Hardware-Accelerated Learning (HAL) cluster, using funcX as a universal distributed computing service. Using this workflow, an ensemble of four openly available AI models can be run on HAL to process an entire month's worth (August 2017) of advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory data in just seven minutes, identifying all four binary black hole mergers previously identified in this dataset and reporting no misclassifications. This approach combines advances in AI, distributed computing and scientific data infrastructure to open new pathways to conduct reproducible, accelerated, data-driven discovery. By combining a repository for artificial intelligence models and a supercomputing cluster, an entire month's worth of advanced LIGO data is analysed in just 7 min, finding all binary black hole mergers previously identified in this dataset and reporting no misclassifications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Submixture model to predict nepheline precipitation in waste glasses

Abstract High‐alumina high‐level waste ( HLW ) glasses are prone to nepheline precipitation during canister‐centerline cooling ( CCC ). If sufficient nepheline forms, the chemical durability of the glass will be significantly impacted. Overly conservative constraints have been developed and used to avoid the deleterious effects of nepheline formation in U.S. HLW glasses. The constraints used have been shown to significantly limit the loading of waste in glass at Hanford and therefore the cost and schedule of cleanup. A 90‐glass study was performed to develop an improved understanding of the impacts of glass composition on the formation of nepheline during CCC . The CCC crystallinity data from these glasses were combined with 657 glasses found in the literature. The trends showed significant effects of Na 2 O, Al 2 O 3 , SiO 2 , B 2 O 3 , CaO, Li 2 O, and potentially K 2 O on the propensity for nepheline formation. A pseudo‐ternary submixture model was proposed to identify the glass composition region prone to nepheline precipitation. This pseudo‐ternary with axes of SiO 2 + 1.98B 2 O 3 , Na 2 O + 0.653Li 2 O + 0.158CaO, and Al 2 O 3 was found to divide glasses that precipitate nepheline during CCC from those that do not. Application of this constraint is anticipated to increase the loading of Hanford high‐alumina HLW s in glass by roughly one‐third.

Vienna, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2014

TU-C-12A-09: Modeling Pathologic Response of Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer to Chemo-Radiotherapy Using Quantitative PET/CT Features, Clinical Parameters and Demographics

Purpose: To develop predictive models using quantitative PET/CT features for the evaluation of tumor response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer. Methods: This study included 20 patients who underwent tri-modality therapy (CRT + surgery) and had {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans before initiation of CRT and 4-6 weeks after completion of CRT but prior to surgery. Four groups of tumor features were examined: (1) conventional PET/CT response measures (SUVmax, tumor diameter, etc.); (2) clinical parameters (TNM stage, histology, etc.) and demographics; (3) spatial-temporal PET features, which characterize tumor SUV intensity distribution, spatial patterns, geometry, and associated changes resulting from CRT; and (4) all features combined. An optimal feature set was identified with recursive feature selection and cross-validations. Support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR) models were constructed for prediction of pathologic tumor response to CRT, using cross-validations to avoid model over-fitting. Prediction accuracy was assessed via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and precision was evaluated via confidence intervals (CIs) of AUC. Results: When applied to the 4 groups of tumor features, the LR model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.10), 0.73 (0.07), 0.90 (0.06), and 0.90 (0.06). The SVM model achieved AUCs (95% CI) of 0.56 (0.07), 0.60 (0.06), 0.94 (0.02), and 1.00 (no misclassifications). Using spatial-temporal PET features combined with conventional PET/CT measures and clinical parameters, the SVM model achieved very high accuracy (AUC 1.00) and precision (no misclassifications), significantly better than using conventional PET/CT measures or clinical parameters and demographics alone. For groups with a large number of tumor features (groups 3 and 4), the SVM model achieved significantly higher accuracy than the LR model. Conclusion: The SVM model using all features including quantitative PET/CT features accurately and precisely predicted pathologic tumor response to CRT in esophageal cancer. This work was supported in part by National Cancer Institute Grant R21 CA131979 and R01 CA172638. Shan Tan was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 60971112 and 61375018, and by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities 2012QN086.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inference-Optimized AI and High Performance Computing for Gravitational Wave Detection at Scale

We introduce an ensemble of artificial intelligence models for gravitational wave detection that we trained in the Summit supercomputer using 32 nodes, equivalent to 192 NVIDIA V100 GPUs, within 2 h. Once fully trained, we optimized these models for accelerated inference using NVIDIA TensorRT. We deployed our inference-optimized AI ensemble in the ThetaGPU supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computer Facility to conduct distributed inference. Using the entire ThetaGPU supercomputer, consisting of 20 nodes each of which has 8 NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPUs and 2 AMD Rome CPUs, our NVIDIA TensorRT-optimized AI ensemble processed an entire month of advanced LIGO data (including Hanford and Livingston data streams) within 50 s. Our inference-optimized AI ensemble retains the same sensitivity of traditional AI models, namely, it identifies all known binary black hole mergers previously identified in this advanced LIGO dataset and reports no misclassifications, while also providing a 3X inference speedup compared to traditional artificial intelligence models. We used time slides to quantify the performance of our AI ensemble to process up to 5 years worth of advanced LIGO data. In this synthetically enhanced dataset, our AI ensemble reports an average of one misclassification for every month of searched advanced LIGO data. We also present the receiver operating characteristic curve of our AI ensemble using this 5 year long advanced LIGO dataset. This approach provides the required tools to conduct accelerated, AI-driven gravitational wave detection at scale.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗