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NASA NTRS2006

Life Support and Habitation and Planetary Protection Workshop

A workshop entitled "Life Support and Habitation and Planetary Protection Workshop" was held in Houston, Texas on April 27-29, 2005 to facilitate the development of planetary protection guidelines for future human Mars exploration missions and to identify the potential effects of these guidelines on the design and selection of related human life support, extravehicular activity and monitoring and control systems. This report provides a summary of the workshop organization, starting assumptions, working group results and recommendations. Specific result topics include the identification of research and technology development gaps, potential forward and back contaminants and pathways, mitigation alternatives, and planetary protection requirements definition needs. Participants concluded that planetary protection and science-based requirements potentially affect system design, technology trade options, development costs and mission architecture. Therefore early and regular coordination between the planetary protection, scientific, planning, engineering, operations and medical communities is needed to develop workable and effective designs for human exploration of Mars.

Hogan, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change andCO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

Arneth, A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

There is strong evidence climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi‐model ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LEIA: An Investigation of Radiation Risks to Biology at the Lunar South Pole

Radiation and reduced gravity pose biological risks to crewed deep space exploration. At the cellular level, radiation damage can be amplified by reduced gravity. Empirical evidence on cellular responses to beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO) environments is imperative to develop effective countermeasures for crew health and in-space biomanufacturing. The Lunar Explorer Instrument for Space Biology Applications (LEIA) project is developing an instrument suite to be delivered to the south polar region of the Moon by the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. This presentation will provide an overview of the LEIA hardware, experiments, and mission timeline. The LEIA instruments include the BioSensor, the ARES charged particle detector, and the Mini-FND. The BioSensor is an autonomous light emitting diode (LED)-based spectrophotometer and microfluidic incubator. The BioSensor activates yeast cultures and can measure cell growth, metabolic activity, and carotenoid production. The ARES is a Timepix-based charged particle radiation detector that measures dose, dose rate, and linear energy transfer spectra. The Mini-FND is a fast neutron detector that measures albedo neutron flux and energy spectra. Combined, these instruments will be used for yeast genetics experiments to quantify growth, metabolism, and synthetic biology-enabled production of human nutrients, while taking real time measurements of biologically relevant radiation exposure on the lunar surface. These data will be used to test the importance of selected DNA damage repair and reactive oxygen species defense pathways in mitigating cellular damage from lunar surface radiation.

Yeast↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Engineered Yeast to Test Risks for Human Exploration of the Lunar Surface

Jessica W. Chau, Natalie N. Ball, Aditya Hindupur, Sandra T. Vu, Jennifer Gil Acevedo, Lauren C. Liddell, Chinmayee Govinda Raj, Gentry, Sergio R. Santa Maria, A. Mark Settles Crewed exploration of the Moon carries risks of long duration exposure to reduced gravity and to deep space radiation. The Lunar Explorer Instrument for space biology Applications (LEIA) investigates the effects of increased radiation and reduced gravity on yeast viability and growth in a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) surface mission to the south polar region. LEIA conducts yeast genetics experiments to quantify growth, metabolism, and synthetic biology-enabled production of human nutrients, while taking real time measurements of biologically relevant radiation exposure on the lunar surface. We have engineered beta-carotene producing yeast strains to test the importance of selected DNA damage repair and reactive oxygen species (ROS) defense pathways in mitigating cellular damage from lunar surface radiation. Carotenoids are important dietary antioxidants, and beta-carotene is pro-vitamin A, which is needed for vision and immune function. Carotenoids are sensitive to ROS produced by ionizing radiation and NASA is testing on-demand production of carotenoids from yeast in the BioNutrients space flight experiments. In LEIA, we test the effects of deep space on carotenoid yield in engineered yeast strains. The LEIA team uses CRISPR-Cas9 to engineer yeast to express carotenoids as well as to generate loss-of-function mutations. We are generating mutations in the RAD51 DNA damage repair locus and three genes that function to reduce oxidative damage to the cell: SOD1, SOD2, and TSA1. These strains are tested for carotenoid production using microfluidics and LED spectroscopy to allow remote sensing of cellular growth and carotenoid levels. Keywords: synthetic biology, oxidative stress tolerance, biosensors, space radiation, beyond low Earth orbit, lunar surface, CRISPR/Cas9, gene editing, desiccation, carotenoids.

synthetic biology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LEIA: An Investigation of Radiation Risks to Biology at the Lunar South Pole

Yeast↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

B Complex 5-Methyltetrahydrofolate, Riboflavin, Pyridoxine, and Methylcobalamin Supplementation as a Non-Mechanical Countermeasure to Mitigate Optic Disc Edema Changes During Strict 6º Head-Down Tilt Bed Rest

A subset of astronauts on International Space Station missions have experienced optic disc edema, part of what is characterized as Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS). While the precise cause of SANS is unknown, it is likely that there are multiple contributing factors, including genetic and environmental factors. Our recent work has shown that crewmembers with SANS have higher concentrations of metabolic biomarkers of impairments in the one-carbon metabolic pathway compared to unaffected astronauts - before, during, and after f light (1). B-vitamin status and the presence of one-carbon pathway single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants predicted the incidence of SANS pathologies, including optic disc edema (2). Specifically, the G allele of methionine synthase reductase (MTRR) A66G and the C allele of serine hydroxymethyltransferase-1 (SHMT1) C1420T were associated with increased incidence of SANS pathologies (2). In a recent 30-d bed rest head-down tilt study with 0.5% CO2 exposure, 5 of 11 subjects developed optic disc edema (4) and the same SHMT1 C1420T and MTRR A66G genetic variants were associated with a larger increase in total retina thickness, a quantitative measure of optic disc edema (5). We published a multi-hit hypothesis of how genetics represents an indispensable element of SANS, which is a multifactorial problem (6). In brief: endothelial dysfunction secondary to genetic, biochemical/nutritional, and physiological (e.g., cardiovascular/fluid shift) f actors could lead to optic disc edema and the other ocular changes that occur in SANS. We expanded this hypothesis to include the possibility that genetic effects on B-vitamin status can alter nitric oxide synthesis and oxidative stress in the endothelium. This in turn could alter the turnover of structural components of the sclera, making it more susceptible to pathologic changes when faced with stressors related to the unrelenting headward fluid shift that occurs in weightlessness and strict head-down tilt bed rest (5). If the relationships that we have observed in flight and ground-based research hold true for the SANS Countermeasure Study, these genetic factors could predict who will be more susceptible to the development of SANS, and more importantly could also provide countermeasure options. As has been shown extensively in the literature, vitamin supplementation can serve to overcome genetic hindrances to one-carbon biochemistry and vascular physiology. Thus, based on our findings, publications, and hypotheses, supported by extensive supporting literature, we had hoped to test in the SANS Countermeasure Study the efficacy of a bioactive B-vitamin complex as a countermeasure to optimize function of the one-carbon pathway and prevent or mitigate optic disc edema during strict 6-degree head down tilt bed rest, and ultimately in space f light. While the supplement is no longer planned to be tested in the SANS Countermeasure Study because of laws regulating supplementation studies like this costing much more than initially planned, we will assess the contribution of one-carbon pathway genetics and B-vitamin status to SANS risk.

S R Zwart↗

NASA NTRS2021

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Health, Labor, and Crop Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in the United States

Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primarily from air quality improvements, which are realized rapidly, and include human health, labor productivity, and crop yield benefits. Benefits from reduced heat exposure become large around 2060, thereafter often dominating over those from improved air quality. Monetized benefits are in the tens of trillions of dollars for avoided deaths and tens of billions for labor productivity and crop yield increases and reduced hospital expenditures. Total monetized benefits this century are dominated by health and are much larger than in previous analyses due to improved understanding of the human health impacts of exposure to both heat and air pollution. Benefit–cost ratios are therefore much larger than in prior studies, especially those that neglected clean air benefits. Specifically, benefits from clean air exceed costs in the first decade, whereas benefits from climate alone exceed costs in the latter half of the century. Furthermore, monetized US benefits largely stem from US emissions reductions. Increased emphasis on the localized, near-term air quality–related impacts would better align policies with societal benefits and, by reducing the mismatch between perception of climate as a risk distant in space and time and the need for rapid action to mitigate long-term climate change, might help increase acceptance of mitigation policies.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2023

SUBSLAB SOIL GAS SAMPLING PLAN FOR COMMUNICATION, MAINTENANCE, AND STORAGE, SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT UNIT (SWMU) 082

HydroGeoLogic, Inc. (HGL) prepared this Subslab Soil Gas (SSSG) Sampling Plan for Communications, Maintenance, and Storage (CM&S), Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 082 for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida, under Contract Number 80KSC019D0012, Task Order 80KSC021F0097 technical directive #1, awarded on September 26, 2022. As described herein, all SSSG sampling and evaluations will be completed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA), OSWER Technical Guide for Assessing and Mitigating the Vapor Intrusion Pathway from Subsurface Vapor Sources to Indoor Air (EPA, 2015).

Jason J Bublitz↗

NASA NTRS2018

Action Pathways for Transforming Cities

Transformation is required for cities to fulfil their leadership potential on climate change. Five action pathways can guide them: integrate mitigation and adaptation; coordinate risk reduction and climate adaptation; cogenerate risk information; focus on disadvantaged populations; and improve governance and knowledge networks.

Civil engineering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Atg12 Maintains Skeletal Integrity by Modulating Pro-Osteoclastogenic Signals and Chondrocyte Differentiation

Weightlessness and radiation, two unique elements of space, profoundly decreases bone mass. This bone loss is attributed to increased activity of bone-resorbing osteoclasts and functional changes in bone-forming osteoblasts, cells that give rise to mature osteocytes. Our long-term goal is to identify signaling pathways that may be targeted to mitigate bone loss in scenarios of space exploration, radiotherapy and accidental radiation exposure. We have previously shown that exposure of MLO-Y4 osteocyte-like cells to simulated space radiation (56Fe) increased the expression of the pro-osteoclastogenic gene rankl and decreased protein levels of LC3B-II, a key player in autophagy. In this current study, we aimed to further elucidate the role of autophagy in maintaining structural integrity of the skeleton. We hypothesize that loss of autophagy in bone leads to an imbalance in pro-osteoclastogenic and pro-osteogenic signals, resulting in net bone loss. To test our hypothesis we performed global postnatal deletion of Atg12 using tamoxifeninducible Cre recombinase under the control of the CAG promoter. Six-week-old CAGCreERT2/ FloxAtg12 animals were treated daily with Tamoxifen or Vehicle (Control, oil only) for five days and euthanasia performed two weeks after the onset of treatment. Percent change in body weights (prior to treatment and at euthanasia) was not significantly different between treatment groups within the same gender. Compared to Vehicle (Control) groups, Tamoxifen (Atg12 iKO) groups showed decreased LC3B-I to II conversion and increased p62 protein levels, consistent with loss of autophagy. Quantitative PCR revealed increased expression of proosteoclastogenic cytokines mcp1 and rankl in bone and marrow respectively in male iKOs compared to male controls. Expression levels of these genes were not significantly altered in the Atg12 iKO females compared to females controls. Microcomputed tomography of tibiae revealed decreased cortical bone volume, cortical thickness and periosteal perimeter consistent with bone loss; and a longer primary spongiosa in male Atg12 iKOs display compared to male controls. These decrements were less pronounced in the female Atg12 iKOs. Cancellous bone structure was not significantly different between iKOs and controls in both genders. Histological analysis also revealed that compared to male controls, male iKOs showed a profound increase in chondrocyte column length of the growth plate with hyper-expansion of both proliferating and hypertrophic zones. Taken together, these findings indicate that autophagy plays an important role in the maintenance of bone structural integrity by mediating the production of proosteoclastogenic signals and regulating chondrocyte proliferation and differentiation.

autophagy↗

NASA NTRS2024

Long-term effects of acute irradiation and isolation on crew age-matched mice

The future of space missions beyond low-Earth orbit presents exciting opportunities but may come with formidable health challenges. Astronauts face a unique combination of space stressors capable of exerting effects on the central nervous system (CNS) with possible sex-dependent differences. The interaction of these combined spaceflight stressors may induce oxidative stress, thereby altering brain integrity and behavioral performance. Understanding these changes is critical for safeguarding astronaut health and enabling successful exploration. By understanding the physiological responses to the combined effects of ionizing radiation (IR) and social isolation in the brain through immunohistochemistry (IHC), proteomics and cytokine expression analyses, we aim to identify CNS pathways ripe for countermeasure development to mitigate adverse brain changes with future deep space exploration. Here, we study the combined effects of simulated 5-ion galactic cosmic radiation (GCRsim) at acute dosage (5, 15, and 50 cGy) and social isolation on crew age-matched male and female mice at 124 days post-irradiation. We conducted analyses of hippocampal cytokine biomarkers and proteomic profiling on hippocampal lysates. Our findings reveal sex-specific regulation of hippocampal cytokines and proteomic profiles. Ongoing immunohistochemistry findings on the hippocampus will provide qualitative information regarding key protein expression and cellular changes such as microglial activation, blood brain barrier integrity, and neuroinflammation. With future plans for long-duration space missions, such as Mars exploration, understanding CNS changes over extended periods in mice can provide insights into potential long-term health impacts on astronauts. This project will provide us with valuable insights into sex-differences in neurobiological processes and disease mechanisms impacting men and women in space.

space radiation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Anthropogenic Pathways for Modeling and Managing Future Arctic Fires

Wildland fires, including extreme fire events and seasons, are becoming more common in the boreal and Arctic regions due to climate change. Current climate modeling approaches do not include country- or region-specific socioeconomic pathways that specifically address the drivers of and potential mitigation techniques for wildland fires. Forest management, energy extraction, and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness as well as fuels treatment, can have a significant impact on future wildland fire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of anthropogenic factors and to align with previous work done on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), climate pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 were created for the states that compose the original Arctic Council countries: Canada, the United States, the Kingdom of Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and Finland as well as the Russian Federation (with whom the other seven countries withdrew participation from in May 2022 due to the invasion and ongoing war in Ukraine). High and low fire activity and risk pathways for all states comprising the Arctic were made, with expert ‘best guess’ pathways for each state created separately to represent the middle of road. The low activity and low fire risk pathways, named “We Got This”, assume active fire suppression via citizenry participation and official land management, efficient and extensive fuel treatments, and consistent and active wildland firefighting for each new ignition. The high activity and high fire risk pathways, named “Let It Burn”, assume nearly the opposite, due to lack of government and community response and no action on climate change drivers that increase wildland fire risk. The ‘best guess’ pathway, named “The Fire Will Come”, indicates that some countries are currently on the pathway for less fire compared to other Arctic and Boreal states but not a ‘no-fire’ future. For example, in the Nordic countries, human ignition sources from tourism, timber and energy extraction, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In North America, these same risks will apply but also may see an expansion of agriculture that increases the likelihood of open burning in croplands. Drier fuel condition and extreme heat events due to climate change create favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic and boreal lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra fires in addition to forest fires in hard-to-reach locations that are more difficult to coordinate and execute wildland firefighting. To move the future Arctic fire SSPs forward, several short-term and long-term actions must be completed. Certain data needs are required, like a harmonized pan-Arctic and pan-boreal fuels geospatial product, while also a need to refine and socialize current definitions of fire seasons and fire management – including developing an open-source system to track and share innovation, mitigation, and adaptation strategies across Arctic states.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Idea Evolution ... What's Next?

No research project lasts forever. Even the most wildly successful programs will eventually come to an end. The challenge in that moment, when a project ends, is how to take what was learned in that project and apply it to the next research activity you undertake. Although not always possible, information and insights from a project that is underway or coming to a close can be leveraged to identify a new research direction and advance existing tangentially related activities. In this presentation, a common thread will be followed through a series of sequential research projects where lessons learned in each activity were built into the next enabling each new research project to advance further and faster. Initial research focused on lunar dust adhesion mitigation coalesced into two major contributors to adhesion interactions; which were, not surprisingly, surface chemistry and topography. This knowledge was applied to addressing insect residue adhesion mitigation on commercial aircraft leading edge surfaces. Composite epoxy coatings formulated with controlled surface chemistry and topography were evaluated and led to identification of additional relevant considerations: dynamics and surface morphology. Collectively, these considerations were applied to address impact ice adhesion mitigation where further properties were elucidated: surface mechanical properties and durability. Seeking commonality between these research endeavors led to greater understanding of each new research objective and ultimately, identification of robust, viable pathways toward meaningful results.

Adhesion Mitigation↗

NASA NTRS2023

Differential Saccade-Pursuit Coordination Under Sleep Loss and Low-Dose Alcohol

Introduction: Ocular tracking of a moving object requires tight coordination between smooth pursuit and saccadic eye movements. Normally, pursuit drives gaze velocity to closely match target velocity, with residual position offsets corrected by catch-up saccades. However, how/if common stressors affect this coordination is largely unknown. This study seeks to elucidate the effects of acute and chronic sleep loss, and low-dose alcohol, on saccade-pursuit coordination, as well as that of caffeine. Methods: We used an ocular tracking paradigm to assess three metrics of tracking (pursuit gain, saccade rate, saccade amplitude) and to compute “ground lost” (from reductions in steady-state pursuit gain) and “ground recouped” (from increases in steady-state saccade rate and/or amplitude). We emphasize that these are measures of relative changes in positional offsets, and not absolute offset from the fovea. Results: Under low-dose alcohol and acute sleep loss, ground lost was similarly large. However, under the former, it was nearly completely recouped by saccades, whereas under the latter, compensation was at best partial. Under chronic sleep restriction and acute sleep loss with a caffeine countermeasure, the pursuit deficit was dramatically smaller, yet saccadic behavior remained altered from baseline. In particular, saccadic rate remained significantly elevated, despite the fact that ground lost was minimal. Discussion: This constellation of findings demonstrates differential impacts on saccade-pursuit coordination with low-dose alcohol impacting only pursuit, likely through extrastriate cortical pathways, while acute sleep loss not only disrupts pursuit but also undermines saccadic compensation, likely through midbrain/brainstem pathways. Furthermore, while chronic sleep loss and caffeine-mitigated acute sleep loss show little residual pursuit deficit, consistent with uncompromised cortical visual processing, they nonetheless show an elevated saccade rate, suggesting residual midbrain and/or brainstem impacts.

smooth pursuit↗