Mixed Effects Random Forest Model for Maintenance Cost Estimation in Heavy-Duty Vehicles Using Diesel and Alternative Fuels
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33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
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Dynamic Ensemble Prediction of Cognitive Performance in Space
Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.
Danni Tu↗
Revised (Mixed-Effects) Estimation for Forest Burning Emissions of Gases and Smoke, Fire/Emission Factor Typology, and Potential Remote Sensing Classification of Types for Ozone and Black-Carbon Simulation
We summarize recent progress (a) in correcting biomass burning emissions factors deduced from airborne sampling of forest fire plumes, (b) in understanding the variability in reactivity of the fresh plumes sampled in ARCTAS (2008), DC3 (2012), and SEAC4RS (2013) airborne missions, and (c) in a consequent search for remotely sensed quantities that help classify forest-fire plumes. Particle properties, chemical speciation, and smoke radiative properties are related and mutually informative, as pictures below suggest (slopes of lines of same color are similar). (a) Mixed-effects (random-effects) statistical modeling provides estimates of both emission factors and a reasonable description of carbon-burned simultaneously. Different fire plumes will have very different contributions to volatile organic carbon reactivity; this may help explain differences of free NOx(both gas- and particle-phase), and also of ozone production, that have been noted for forest-fire plumes in California. Our evaluations check or correct emission factors based on sequential measurements (e.g., the Normalized Ratio Enhancement and similar methods). We stress the dangers of methods relying on emission-ratios to CO. (b) This work confirms and extends many reports of great situational variability in emissions factors. VOCs vary in OH reactivity and NOx-binding. Reasons for variability are not only fuel composition, fuel condition, etc., but are confused somewhat by rapid transformation and mixing of emissions. We use "unmixing" (distinct from mixed-effects) statistics and compare briefly to approaches like neural nets. We focus on one particularly intense fire the notorious Yosemite Rim Fire of 2013. In some samples, NOx activity was not so suppressed by binding into nitrates as in other fires. While our fire-typing is evolving and subject to debate, the carbon-burned delta(CO2+CO) estimates that arise from mixed effects models, free of confusion by background-CO2 variation, should provide a solid base for discussion. (c) We report progress using promising links we find between emissions-related "fire types" and promising features deducible from remote observations of plumes, e.g., single scatter albedo, Angstrom exponent of scattering, Angstrom exponent of absorption, (CO column density)/(aerosol optical depth).
Remote sensing↗
Differential Organic Carbon Mineralization Responses to Soil Moisture in Three Different Soil Orders Under Mixed Forested System: Supporting Data
This data contains data from 90-day long incubation study which aimed to look at the soil moisture-texture relationship on soil organic carbon (SOC) cycling. Soils were collected from three distinct soil textures from mixed forests in 2017: sandy (Georgia, 2017-05-01), loamy (Missouri, 2017-06-14) and clayey (Texas, December 2017) were incubated at different soil moisture levels (air-dried, 25% water holding capacity (WHC), 50% WHC, 100% WHC and 175% WHC) at room temperature for a period of 90 days. Files contain microbial respiration, active and slow SOC pools, and their respective mineralization rates, extractable organic carbon (C), and C-acquiring extracellular enzymes. Findings from these data were used in Singh et al. (2021). This study aimed to examine the interactive effect of soil moisture and texture on SOC mineralization. Soil samples of three distinct textures (sandy, loamy, and clayey) were collected from mixed forests of Georgia, Missouri, and Texas, respectively. Soil cores of 5 cm diameter were collected from numerous random locations at each site from 0-15 cm depth after scraping the litter layer and mixed thoroughly to obtain a composite sample per site. Three additional soil cores were collected to determine the WHC using pressure plate extractors. Soil samples were composited, and triplicate soil samples were incubated in mason jars for a period of 90 days at room temperature under different moisture regimes: air dried, 25% WHC, 50% WHC, at WHC and 100% saturation. Soil respiration was measured weekly, and destructive sampling was conducted at 1, 15, 60, and 90 days to determine extractable organic C, C acquiring enzyme activity, and active and slow SOC pools with their respective mineralization rates. The C acquiring enzyme activity was the total activity of α-glucosidase, β-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, and β-xylosidase enzymes. Gas samples for microbial respiration measurements were collected from headspace of incubation jars through the sampling ports on the lids and then analyzed using a Shimadzu Gas Chromatograph (GC-2014). Prior to sampling, the vials were evacuated. Blank correction was also done by collecting gas samples from empty incubation jars. Double pool exponential decay model was used in SigmaPlot to determine the active and slow SOC pools and their mineralization rates (Farrar et al., 2012; Jagadamma et al., 2014). The C-acquiring extracellular enzymes were measured using the microplate method by German et al., (2011). Microbial community structure was determined using the phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) and neutral lipid fatty acid (NLFA) analyses (Buyer and Sasser, 2012). This dataset has seven data files provided in comma-separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: seven data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.
Carbon acquiring enzyme activity↗
Machine Learning–Augmented Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for Spectral Discrimination of Iron Oxalates
Enhanced characterization and phase identification of post-PUREX Pu Oxalates (PuOXA) are pivotal for nonproliferation and pre-detonation nuclear forensics. Despite significant advances in the characterization of PuO 2 samples, little is known about the impact of both the chemical structure and oxidation states of PuOXA (i.e., Pu(III) and Pu(IV)) have on optical emission signatures. Here, we demonstrate the analytical capabilities of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) applied to Fe(II) and Fe(III) oxalate samples as surrogates for PuOXA, highlighting the discriminating features in the LIBS emission spectra arising from differences in the oxidation states within mixed FeOXA samples. We report the enhancement of spectral feature selection using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which enables the analytical superiority of machine learning algorithms such as Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest Regression (RFR) over conventional univariate techniques for phase discrimination and chemometric analysis. Cluster analysis revealed how both matrix effects and laser ablation influence cluster separability by introducing spectral artifacts that misdirect the maximization of variance. PCA-selected emission lines were used in the regression models, demonstrating that both univariate and multivariate linear regression models (i.e., PLSR and SVR) can achieve acceptable performance, with machine learning models outperforming conventional calibration regressions. Furthermore, the application of non-linearly activated PCA-selected emission lines illustrates how simplifying the data while retaining captured variance enables the use of less complex and more computationally efficient models. Furthermore, this is particularly evident in the underperformance of RFR, which suffers from increased computational costs and overfitting owing to its high complexity.
Oxalates↗
Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading
In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.
In situ biogas upgrading↗
A Radiative Transfer Model for Patchy Landscapes Based on Stochastic Radiative Transfer Theory
The availability of global high-resolution land cover maps provides promising a priori knowledge for characterizing subpixel heterogeneity and improving predictions of directional reflectance of coarse-resolution pixels. Due to mutual shadowing and sheltering effects between the adjacent forest and cropland patches, the spectral nonlinear mixing of patchy ecotones is significant, especially when the sun illuminates the ecotone from the forest side with high solar zenith angle. The spectral linear mixture (SLM) approach leads to overestimation of the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) in the red band in the principal plane (PP), with a maximum absolute error (MAE) of 0.0063 and a maximum relative error (MRE) of 52.5%, and to underestimation in the near-infrared band in PP with an MAE of 0.0940 and an MRE of 14.5%. In a scenario with randomly distributed boundary orientations, the overestimation of SLM increases with the degree of fragmentation and the view zenith angle. We propose a Radiative Transfer model for patchy ECotones (RTEC). which improves R² from 0.61 to 0.94 in the red band of Landsat-8 directional reflectance at the validation site. The RTEC model provides an efficient and analytical approach for directional reflectance predictions over heterogeneous patchy landscapes at coarse resolution and will be used for biophysical parameter retrievals [e.g., the leaf area index (LAI)] in future applications.
Zeng, Yelu↗
Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression
Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Geospatial Method for Computing Supplemental Multi-Decadal U.S. Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Classification Products, Using Landsat Data and C-CAP Products
This paper discusses the development and implementation of a geospatial data processing method and multi-decadal Landsat time series for computing general coastal U.S. land-use and land-cover (LULC) classifications and change products consisting of seven classes (water, barren, upland herbaceous, non-woody wetland, woody upland, woody wetland, and urban). Use of this approach extends the observational period of the NOAA-generated Coastal Change and Analysis Program (C-CAP) products by almost two decades, assuming the availability of one cloud free Landsat scene from any season for each targeted year. The Mobile Bay region in Alabama was used as a study area to develop, demonstrate, and validate the method that was applied to derive LULC products for nine dates at approximate five year intervals across a 34-year time span, using single dates of data for each classification in which forests were either leaf-on, leaf-off, or mixed senescent conditions. Classifications were computed and refined using decision rules in conjunction with unsupervised classification of Landsat data and C-CAP value-added products. Each classification's overall accuracy was assessed by comparing stratified random locations to available reference data, including higher spatial resolution satellite and aerial imagery, field survey data, and raw Landsat RGBs. Overall classification accuracies ranged from 83 to 91% with overall Kappa statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.89. The accuracies are comparable to those from similar, generalized LULC products derived from C-CAP data. The Landsat MSS-based LULC product accuracies are similar to those from Landsat TM or ETM+ data. Accurate classifications were computed for all nine dates, yielding effective results regardless of season. This classification method yielded products that were used to compute LULC change products via additive GIS overlay techniques.
Spruce, J. P.↗
An Observational Comparison of Level of Neutral Buoyancy and Level of Maximum Detrainment in Tropical Deep Convective Clouds
Tropical deep convective clouds are important drivers of large-scale atmospheric circulation representing the main vertical transport pathway through the depth of the troposphere for heat, momentum, water, and chemical species. The strength and depth of this transport are impacted by the convective updraft size and intensity that are driven by buoyancy, dynamical forcing, and mixing of environmental air, i.e., entrainment. In this paper, we identify tropical deep convective systems with well-defined forward anvils using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ground-based profiling radars, at three ARM fixed-sites in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP; i.e., Manus, Nauru, Darwin) and three ARM Mobile Facility deployments in Niamey, Niger; Gan Island, Maldives; and Manacapuru, Brazil. We use the difference between the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) and the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) as a proxy for the effective bulk convective entrainment (εproxy). The LNB, the theoretical height that a parcel raised above the level of free convection would reach with no mixing, is calculated based on pre-convection radiosonde measurements using parcel theory. The LMD is the height of the maximum reflectivity observed in forward anvil clouds by profiling radars. Deep convective systems over the TWP show higher LNBs that extend to 16.3 km on average and larger εproxy (median LNB minus LMD up to 6.5 km) compared to their continental counterparts in the Amazon and West Africa. Oceanic conditions show larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) coupled with higher moisture at low levels which favors larger εproxy. In contrast, continental cases initiate and develop under high convective inhibition, steeper environmental lapse rate, and high wind shear conditions, which show smaller offset between LNB and LMD. Deep convective cases that promote significant cold pools at the surface experience less εproxy. Using a Random Forest regression algorithm, CAPE is associated with the highest feature importance score for predicting convective εproxy, followed by low-level relative humidity. For continental cases, the low-level wind shear also indicates higher importance.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assimilation of MODIS Snow Cover Through the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Community Land Model Version 4
To improve snowpack estimates in Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) was assimilated into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) via the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The interface between CLM4 and DART is a flexible, extensible approach to land surface data assimilation. This data assimilation system has a large ensemble (80-member) atmospheric forcing that facilitates ensemble-based land data assimilation. We use 40 randomly chosen forcing members to drive 40 CLM members as a compromise between computational cost and the data assimilation performance. The localization distance, a parameter in DART, was tuned to optimize the data assimilation performance at the global scale. Snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth are adjusted via the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, particularly in regions with large SCF variability. The root-mean-square error of the forecast SCF against MODIS SCF is largely reduced. In DJF (December-January-February), the discrepancy between MODIS and CLM4 is broadly ameliorated in the lower-middle latitudes (2345N). Only minimal modifications are made in the higher-middle (4566N) and high latitudes, part of which is due to the agreement between model and observation when snow cover is nearly 100. In some regions it also reveals that CLM4-modeled snow cover lacks heterogeneous features compared to MODIS. In MAM (March-April-May), adjustments to snowmove poleward mainly due to the northward movement of the snowline (i.e., where largest SCF uncertainty is and SCF assimilation has the greatest impact). The effectiveness of data assimilation also varies with vegetation types, with mixed performance over forest regions and consistently good performance over grass, which can partly be explained by the linearity of the relationship between SCF and SWE in the model ensembles. The updated snow depth was compared to the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) data. Differences between CMC and CLM4 are generally reduced in densely monitored regions.
data assimilation↗
RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework
This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh
Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem
Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗