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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2022

Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by –93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the minimal bias model

Here, we present cosmological parameter constraints from a blind joint analysis of three two-point correlation functions measured from the Year 3 Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC-Y3) imaging data, covering about 416 deg 2 , and the SDSS DR11 spectroscopic galaxies spanning the redshift range [0.15, 0.70]. We subdivide the SDSS galaxies into three luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited samples separated in redshift, each of which acts as a large-scale structure tracer characterized by the measurement of the projected correlation function, w p ⁡(R). We also use the measurements of the galaxy-galaxy weak-lensing signal Δ⁢Σ⁡(R) for each of these SDSS samples which act as lenses for a secure sample of source galaxies selected from the HSC-Y3 shape catalog based on their photometric redshifts. We combine these measurements with the cosmic shear correlation functions, ξ ± ⁡($\vartheta$) measured for our HSC source sample. We model these observables with the minimal bias model of the galaxy clustering observables in the context of a flat Λ⁢CDM cosmology. We use conservative scale cuts, R >12 and 8⁢ℎ -1 Mpc for Δ⁢Σ and w p , respectively, where the minimal bias model is valid, in addition to conservative prior on the residual bias in the mean redshift of the HSC photometric source galaxies. We present various validation tests of our model as well as analysis methods. Our baseline analysis yields S 8 = $0.77⁢5^{+0.043}_{-0.038}$ (68% C.I.) for the Λ⁢CDM model, after marginalizing over uncertainties in other parameters. Our value of S 8 is consistent with that from the Planck 2018 data, but the credible interval of our result is still relatively large. We show that various internal consistency tests based on different splits of the data are passed. Our results are statistically consistent with those of a companion paper, which extends this analysis to smaller scales with an emulator-based halo model, using Δ⁢Σ⁡(R) and w p ⁡(R) down to R >3 and 2⁢ℎ -1 Mpc, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A fully Lagrangian, non-parametric bias model for dark matter halos

Here, we present a non-parametric Lagrangian biasing model and fit the ratio of the halo and mass densities at the field level using the mass-weighted halo field in the AbacusSummit simulations at z=0.5. Unlike the perturbative halo bias model that has been widely used in interpreting the observed large-scale structure traced by galaxies, we find a non-negative halo-to-mass ratio that increases monotonically with the linear overdensity δ 1 in the initial Lagrangian space. The bias expansion, however, does not guarantee non-negativity of the halo counts, and may lead to rising halo number counts at negative overdensities. The shape of the halo-to-mass ratio is unlikely to be described by a polynomial function of δ 1 and other quantities. Especially for massive halos with 6×10 12 h -1 M ⊙ , the halo-to-mass ratio starts soaring up at δ 1 >0, substantially different from the predictions of the bias expansion. We show that for the halo masses we consider (M>3×10 11 h -1 M ⊙ ) a non-parametric halo-to-mass ratio as a function of δ 1 and its local derivative ∇^2δ 1 can recover the halo power spectra to sub-percent level accuracy for wavenumbers k=0.01-0.1 h Mpc -1 given a proper smoothing scale to filter the initial density field, even though we do not fit the power spectrum directly. However, there is mild dependence of the recovery of the halo power spectrum on the smoothing scale and other input parameters. At k<0.01 h Mpc -1 and for massive halos with M>6x10 12 h -1 M ⊙ , our non-parametric model leads to a few percent overestimation of the halo power spectrum, indicating the need for larger or multiple smoothing scales. The halo-to-mass ratios obtained qualitatively agree with intuitions from extended Press-Schechter theory. We compare our framework to the bias expansion and discuss possible extensions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback

Abstract How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: an Application to Xco2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

segmentation algorithm↗
NASA NTRS1973

A biased model for calculating the evolution in solar absorptance.

A biased model is proposed to account for the smooth curve type of degradation experienced by spacecraft environmental interfacing materials. Because the space environment is nondestructive, the solar absorptance (alpha) must reach its maximum value in finite time, monotonically, without inflection points and be single valued, viz., alpha equals alpha-zero plus (Bt - D) exp (-At). A simple procedure is also included for the parametric calculation of A, B, and D with respect to solar intensity, particle flux, and temperature. The suitability of the model is discussed with regard to destructive testing, and a more general equation proposed. Use of the model for alpha calculations appropriate to the HELIOS missions is outlined.

Schutt, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Average Versus High Surface Ozone Levels over the Continental USA: Model Bias, Background Influences, and Interannual Variability

US background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the USA, from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background sources versus US anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over 10 continental US regions from 2004 to 2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0-19ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern USA. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to excessive regional O3 production (e.g., US anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the 10 highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), US anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5-11ppb and by less than 2ppb in the eastern versus western USA. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1-7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2ppb higher on average versus on O3_top10obs_JJA days. During the summers of 2004-2012, monthly regional mean US background O3 MDA8 levels vary by up to 15ppb from year to year. Observed and simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004-2006 to 2010-2012, reflecting rising US background (+2ppb) and declining US anthropogenic O3 emissions (6ppb) in the model. The model attributes interannual variability in US background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a 3-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3 on the highest observed O3 days.

Guo, Jean J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: An Application to XCO2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

Calle, Leonardo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Salinity Under Transitioning Ice Cover in the Canada Basin: Climate Model Biases Linked to Vertical Distribution of Fresh Water

Abstract The Canada Basin has exhibited a significant trend toward a fresher surface layer and thus a more stratified upper‐ocean over the past three decades. State‐of‐the‐art ice‐ocean models, by contrast, tend to simulate a surface layer that is saltier and less stratified than observed. Here, we examine decadal changes to seasonal processes that may contribute to this wide‐reaching model bias using climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model and below‐ice observations from the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment in 1975 and Ice Tethered Profilers in 2006–2012. In contrast to the observations, the models simulate salinity profiles that show relatively little variation between 1975 and 2012. We demonstrate that this bias can be mainly attributed to unrealistically deep vertical mixing in the model, creating a surface layer that is saltier than observed. The results provide insight for climate model improvement with broad implications for Arctic sea ice and ecosystem dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model bias in simulating major chemical components of PM 2.5 in China

High concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in China have caused severe visibility degradation. Accurate simulations of PM 2.5 and its chemical components are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control strategies and the health and climate impacts of air pollution. In this study, we compared the GEOS-Chem model simulations with comprehensive datasets for organic aerosol (OA), sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in China. Model results are evaluated spatially and temporally against observations. The new OA scheme with a simplified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) parameterization significantly improves the OA simulations in polluted urban areas, highlighting the important contributions of anthropogenic SOA from semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds. The model underestimates sulfate and overestimates nitrate for most of the sites throughout the year. More significant underestimation of sulfate occurs in winter, while the overestimation of nitrate is extremely large in summer. The model is unable to capture some of the main features in the diurnal pattern of the PM 2.5 chemical components, suggesting inaccuracies in the presented processes. Potential model adjustments that may lead to a better representation of the boundary layer height, the precursor emissions, hydroxyl radical concentrations, the heterogeneous formation of sulfate and nitrate, and the wet deposition of nitric acid and nitrate have been tested in the sensitivity analysis. The results show that uncertainties in chemistry perhaps dominate the model biases. The proper implementation of heterogeneous sulfate formation and the good estimates of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide, hydroxyl radical, and aerosol liquid water are essential for the improvement of the sulfate simulation. The update of the heterogeneous uptake coefficient of nitrogen dioxide significantly reduces the modeled concentrations of nitrate. However, the large overestimation of nitrate concentrations remains in summer for all tested cases. The possible bias in the chemical production and the wet deposition of nitrate cannot fully explain the model overestimation of nitrate, suggesting issues related to the atmospheric removal of nitric acid and nitrate. A better understanding of the atmospheric nitrogen budget, in particular, the role of the photolysis of particulate nitrate, is needed for future model developments. Moreover, the results suggest that the remaining underestimation of OA in the model is associated with the underrepresented production of SOA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Systematic Approach to Isolating the Causes and Impacts of Climate Model Bias Employing Analysis Increments

One of the most promising approaches to isolating the causes and understanding the impacts of climate model formulation errors is through the utilization of information contained in short-term forecast errors. The underlying assumption being that by capturing the errors at the very early stages of growth (before nonlinearities develop), we should be able to associate those errors with specific deficiencies in the model's formulation of the relevant physical processes. Here, we provide an example of utilizing the long-term mean of the 6-hourly analysis increments (first guess forecast minus analysis) produced by MERRA-2 to correct the NASA/GEOS AGCM over well-defined regions, thereby allowing us to quantify how the reduced tendency errors in these regions manifest themselves both locally and remotely through large-scale teleconnections to reduce the model's climatological biases. We extend previous work (focused on boreal summer) to address the full annual cycle of model bias. A key result is the large seasonality of the errors over the Tibet region and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere jet biases, and related precipitation and temperature biases over North American. Attempts to correct the phase and amplitude errors of the climatological boreal winter ridge over western North America (a likely key requirement for improving winter climate forecasts over North America) reveal a surprising complexity in the sources of the errors in what is otherwise manifest as a rather simple PNA-like bias structure.

Schubert, S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Constraints on cosmological parameters and galaxy bias models from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the redMaGiC sample

We constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias parameters using the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 data. We describe our modeling framework and choice of scales analyzed, validating their robustness to theoretical uncertainties in small-scale clustering by analyzing simulated data. Using a linear galaxy bias model and redMaGiC galaxy sample, we obtain constraints on the matter content of the universe to be $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.325^{+0.033}_{-0.034}$. We also implement a non-linear galaxy bias model to probe smaller scales that includes parameterizations based on hybrid perturbation theory, and find that it leads to a 17% gain in cosmological constraining power. Using the redMaGiC galaxy sample as foreground lens galaxies, we find the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to exhibit significant signals akin to decorrelation between galaxies and mass on large scales, which is not expected in any current models. This likely systematic measurement error biases our constraints on galaxy bias and the $S_8$ parameter. We find that a scale-, redshift- and sky-area-independent phenomenological decorrelation parameter can effectively capture this inconsistency between the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. We perform robustness tests of our methodology pipeline and demonstrate stability of the constraints to changes in the theory model. After accounting for this decorrelation, we infer the constraints on the mean host halo mass of the redMaGiC galaxies from the large-scale bias constraints, finding the galaxies occupy halos of mass approximately $1.5 \times 10^{13} M_{\odot}/h$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: Constraints on cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias models from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the redMaGiC sample

We constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias parameters using the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) year-3 data. We describe our modeling framework and choice of scales analyzed, validating their robustness to theoretical uncertainties in small-scale clustering by analyzing simulated data. Using a linear galaxy-bias model and redMaGiC galaxy sample, we obtain 10% constraints on the matter density of the Universe. Here, we also implement a nonlinear galaxy-bias model to probe smaller scales that includes parametrization based on hybrid perturbation theory and find that it leads to a 17% gain in cosmological constraining power. We perform robustness tests of our methodology pipeline and demonstrate stability of the constraints to changes in the theory model. Using the redMaGiC galaxy sample as foreground lens galaxies and adopting the best-fitting cosmological parameters from DES year-1 data, we find the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to exhibit significant signals akin to decorrelation between galaxies and mass on large scales, which is not expected in any current models. This likely systematic measurement error biases our constraints on galaxy bias and the S 8 parameter. We find that a scale-, redshift- and sky-area-independent phenomenological decorrelation parameter can effectively capture this inconsistency between the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. We trace the source of this correlation to a color-dependent photometric issue and minimize its impact on our result by changing the selection criteria of redMaGiC galaxies. Using this new sample, our constraints on the S 8 parameter are consistent with previous studies and we find a small shift in the Ω m constraints compared to the fiducial redMaGiC sample. We infer the constraints on the mean host-halo mass of the redMaGiC galaxies in this new sample from the large-scale bias constraints, finding the galaxies occupy halos of mass approximately 1.6 × 10 13 M ⊙ /h.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

Abstract We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.

Ding, Hui↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Causes of Model Biases in Simulating Inorganic Aerosol Composition During KORUS-AQ and Implications for the Estimate of Transboundary Pollution

East Asia is a region of increasing economic growth which has led to severe PM2.5 pollution in urban areas. The joint NASA-NIER Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May-June 2016 provided an extensive dataset of ground, airborne, and remote sensing observations to test model simulations of PM2.5 pollution transport and potential control measures. During KORUS-AQ, a period of haze was observed in which PM2.5 rapidly increased to the highest levels observed during the campaign. This increase is associated with increasing inorganic aerosol. While a portion of this increase is due to long-range transport, there is observational evidence that aerosol formation from local precursors was also enhanced. This suggests that domestic policy measures could have a greater than expected influence on controlling PM2.5. However, models have difficulty reproducing PM2.5 levels, particularly the composition of secondary inorganic aerosol. Models generally underestimate sulfate and overestimate nitrate and fail to represent the peak levels of PM2.5 during haze events. These biases have been chiefly attributed to errors in chemical mechanisms and model meteorology, not issues with underlying emissions inventories. Here, we use observations from KORUS-AQ interpreted by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve the model’s ability to reproduce secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations during the campaign and explore mechanisms to improve model biases during the haze event. We assess the fraction of inorganic aerosol from the improved model simulation that results from transboundary transport during KORUS-AQ and test the model sensitivity to potential emission reduction measures that could improve air quality in Seoul during different meteorological periods including haze episodes.

Katie Travis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗