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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling aerosol bolus inhalations in the human lung with the multiple path particle deposition model: Comparison with experimental data

Existing one-dimensional (1D) models of aerosol dosimetry often ignore mixing mechanisms of inhaled aerosols during their transport in the lung. This mixing or aerosol dispersion results from different physical mechanisms in different regions of the lung. It is a higher order effect, which cannot be directly captured in 1D modeling approaches, and thus is sometimes modeled as a diffusive process. Here, in this study, we improved our recently developed alveolar mixing module incorporated in the multiple path particle dosimetry model (MPPD) to account for flow irreversibility and particle trapping in the alveolar spaces, as well as mixing occurring in the tracheobronchial region. This new version of MPPD was coupled with CFPD-based predictions of aerosol bolus dispersion in the oral airway. The model was used to predict the deposition, dispersion, and mode shift of aerosol bolus inhaled at different penetration depths within the lung for breathing patterns and particle size matching those used in a previous experimental study (Darquenne et al., 2016). Even though a quite simplified approach was used, the computations appear to describe subject-specific and test-specific experimental data reasonably well. The proposed combined dispersion-deposition model can be a useful tool for targeted drug delivery and also for exposure health risk assessment.

MPPD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High- and Mid-Fidelity Modeling Comparison for a Floating Marine Turbine System

There is a lack of suitable numerical tools, particularly open-source tools, that can be used for designing and optimizing marine turbine systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has added features to their widely used mid-fidelity wind turbine modeling code, OpenFAST, to enable modeling of axial-flow marine turbines. This necessitated the addition of several physical effects relevant to marine turbines that are neglected for wind turbines. These include buoyancy, added mass and inertial loads, wave-current superposition, and changes to the coordinate systems. This updated version of OpenFAST allows for the modeling of both fixed and floating marine turbines at a speed comparable to real time. While efficient for large sets of load cases and design studies, mid-fidelity codes make simplifying assumptions that may impact their accuracy. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can capture more flow effects with fewer assumptions and provide detailed body pressure mapping and flow-field information. It is important to compare predictions between mid-fidelity and high-fidelity codes, both to verify the models and to understand the limitations. A floating marine turbine system was modeled both with OpenFAST and with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. The CFD model used a three-dimensional unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver for a volume-of-fluid numerical wave and current tank. The blade-resolved simulations used the sliding-interface technique for the spinning rotor and an overset grid to accommodate the rigid-body motion of the floating system. The mooring system was modeled with a custom coupling of the CFD solver with the open-source code MoorDyn. This improves upon the existing quasi-static catenary solver in STAR-CCM+, which lacks seabed contact or line-to-line connections. Simulation results for a floating marine turbine are compared between OpenFAST and CFD, highlighting the capabilities of the mid-fidelity code and identifying the areas where a high-fidelity approach is needed.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Classification of compact objects and model comparison using EOS knowledge

Nuclear theory and experiments, alongside astrophysical observations, constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supranuclear-dense matter. Conversely, knowledge of the EOS allows an improved interpretation of nuclear or astrophysical data. In this article, we use several established constraints on the EOS and the new NICER measurement of PSR J0437-4715 to comment on the nature of the primary companion in GW230529 and the companion of PSR J0514-4002E. We find that, with a probability of ≳84% and ≳68%, respectively, both objects are black holes. These likelihoods increase to above 95% when one uses GW170817’s remnant as an upper limit on the TOV mass. We also demonstrate that the current knowledge of the EOS substantially disfavors high masses and radii for PSR J⁢0030+0451, inferred recently when combining NICER with XMM-Newton background data and using particular hot-spot models. Lastly, we also use our obtained EOS knowledge to comment on measurements of the nuclear symmetry energy, finding that the large value predicted by the PREX-II measurement displays some mild tension with other constraints on the EOS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Achilles and GENIE Model Comparisons Between Quasi-Elastic Proton Exclusive Events in DUNE PRISM ND-LAr

In this study, we analyze simulated CCQE proton exclusive events in DUNE s ND-LAr using Achilles and GENIE Monte Carlo event generators. We generate events using muon neutrino exclusive flux files of DUNE s on-axis and 20m off-axis PRISM positions and compare various kinematics of proton exclusive events between the event generators. Events are further analyzed in categories according to the number of final-state protons. This study was motivated by QE s dominance in statistics for off-axis events over other channels in which off-axis events are very useful for characterizing DUNE s flux. Furthermore, our motivation for comparing results between generators is driven by off-axis QE neutrino spectra peaking below 1 GeV. In this region, many low-energy proton events are produced in which models have been shown to have disagreements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deriving the Infrared Complex Refractive Indices of Organic Powders for Optical Modeling: Comparison of Methods

Identification of solids via infrared reflection spectroscopy requires a spectral library of all solids likely to be encountered. A confounding factor in populating such a spectral library is that the reflectance spectra of solids vary with their form, including particle size, film thickness, and substrate. To reduce the efforts of experimentally constructing such a library, an alternate strategy is to use the wavelength-dependent optical constants, n and k, of a solid to calculate a series of reflectance spectra corresponding to each scenario or morphology. Because most n/k measurements are best performed on mm-sized crystals, however, the challenge of determining the optical constants increases when a solid is only readily available as a powder, as is often the case. Some organic solids, such as caffeine, are both unavailable in large crystals and difficult to press into pellets. In this study, the infrared optical constants, or complex refractive indices, of caffeine were determined using three different methods: single-angle reflectance, infrared spectroscopic ellipsometry, and quantitative absorbance measurements of KBr pellets. The n and k values derived through each method were used to model the hyperspectral imaging reflectance spectrum of a caffeine film on a steel planchet. Over 1,110 – 870 cm-1, the single-angle reflectance-derived n and k had the best correlation with the experimental spectrum. These results suggest different organic solids may require different methods to determine the most accurate infrared complex refractive indices for synthetic spectral libraries.

FTIR, hyperspectral imaging, infrared, infrared (I↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introduction to opacity model comparison talks

I'm just giving necessary information to introduce a presentation at Z Fundamental Science Workshop Laboratory-Astrophysics Breakout session. All information are either non-technical or previously published.

Nagayama, Taisuke [Sandia National Laboratories (S↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. In conclusion, we recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Taweret: a Python package for Bayesian model mixing

Uncertainty quantification using Bayesian methods is a growing area of research. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a recent development which combines the predictions from multiple models such that the fidelity of each model is preserved in the final result. Practical tools and analysis suites that facilitate such methods are therefore needed. Taweret introduces BMM to existing Bayesian uncertainty quantification efforts. Currently, Taweret contains three individual Bayesian model mixing techniques, each pertaining to a different type of problem structure; we encourage the future inclusion of user-developed mixing methods. Taweret’s first use case is in nuclear physics, but the package has been structured such that it should be adaptable to any research engaged in model comparison or model mixing.

Ingles, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Model for Photovoltaic Generation: Comparison with Physical Models Using a Microgrid in Puerto Rico

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is a critical component of microgrids, but its accurate modeling is challenging due to the complex and dynamic interactions between solar irradiance, temperature, and PV system installation. This paper develops a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model that inputs solar irradiance and temperature to estimate the PV generation, and it compares the proposed data-driven model’s performance to two well-known physical models: the single-diode model and the inverter model. The results demonstrate that all the models can reach high levels of accuracy. However, the MLP model outperforms the physical models on average by 4.5 to 6.6 percent in R squared scores and 220 to 290 Watts in RMSE scores, and it does not require physical system parameters. Moreover, the data-driven model can overcome the limitations of the lack of real-time PV generation data.

R pesante colón, Marcos↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗