Complex modeling for the quantification of nanoscale disorder using genetic algorithms, density functional theory and line-profile analysis
Abstract not provided
Koch, Robert J.↗
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The development and application of composite complexity models and a relative complexity metric in a software maintenance environment
A great deal of effort is now being devoted to the study, analysis, prediction, and minimization of software maintenance expected cost, long before software is delivered to users or customers. It has been estimated that, on the average, the effort spent on software maintenance is as costly as the effort spent on all other software costs. Software design methods should be the starting point to aid in alleviating the problems of software maintenance complexity and high costs. Two aspects of maintenance deserve attention: (1) protocols for locating and rectifying defects, and for ensuring that noe new defects are introduced in the development phase of the software process; and (2) protocols for modification, enhancement, and upgrading. This article focuses primarily on the second aspect, the development of protocols to help increase the quality and reduce the costs associated with modifications, enhancements, and upgrades of existing software. This study developed parsimonious models and a relative complexity metric for complexity measurement of software that were used to rank the modules in the system relative to one another. Some success was achieved in using the models and the relative metric to identify maintenance-prone modules.
Hops, J. M.↗
Reduction of Model Complexity by Active Control
The mathematical models of many dynamic systems of interest in the aerospace industry are inherently complex and of high order. Rather than grapple with the full-complexity models for such systems, the control designers often elect to derive low-order, reduced-complexity models for which a control system can be designed. The subject of model-order reduction has received a significant amount of attention in control engineering literature. This paper describes and demonstrates a novel active-control methodology that can be used to design a control system that automatically forces the original system to behave like a chosen reduced-complexity model by treating the effects of the original complexity-related terms as disturbances acting on the reduced-complexity system. The method is demonstrated by several worked examples involving both linear and nonlinear systems, supported by simulation results.
Bukley, Angelia P.↗
Provably conservative approximations to complex reliability models
Complex models can be the bases for derivation of provably conservative and optimistic reliability models that incorporate a reduced state space and fewer transitions; they accordingly possess solutions that are more cost-effective than those of the original complex models. Design space can thereby be extensively explored without incurring the expense of multiple complex model solutions. A conservative-optimistic pair of derived models produces a band that includes the solution to the complex model. Sensitivity analysis can be performed on this pair of models to determine those parameters of the original model that are most sensitive to change and therefore require further expense in obtaining tighter specifications.
Smotherman, M.↗
Development and Application of Composite Complexity Models and a Relative Complexity Metric in a Software Maintenance Environment
A great deal of effort is now being devoted to the study, analysis, prediction and minimization of software maintenance expected cost, long before software is delivered to users or customers.
software↗
Application of community data to surface complexation modeling framework development: Iron oxide protolysis
This study presents a comprehensive community data-driven surface complexation modeling framework for simulating potentiometric titration of mineral surfaces. Compiled community data for ferrihydrite, goethite, hematite, and magnetite are fit to produce representative protolysis constants that can reproduce potentiometric titration data collected from multiple literature sources. Using this framework, the impact of surface complexation model type and surface site density (SSD) on the fit quality and protolysis constants can be readily evaluated. For example, the non-electrostatic model yielded a poor data fit compared to diffuse double layer model and constant capacitance models due to the absence of known surface charge effects. Regardless of the choice of iron oxide mineral, pK a1 decreased with increasing SSD while the opposite tendency was observed for pK a2 . This newly developed framework demonstrates a method to reconcile community data-wide potentiometric titration data using Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable data principles to produce mineral protolysis constants that improve robustness of surface complexation models for applications in metal sorption and reactive transport modeling. The framework is readily expandable (as community data increase) and extensible (as the number of minerals increase). The framework provides a path forward for developing self-consistent, comprehensive, and updateable surface complexation databases for surface complexation and reactive transport modeling.
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Selecting Appropriate Model Complexity: An Example of Tracer Inversion for Thermal Prediction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems
Abstract A major challenge in the inversion of subsurface parameters is the ill‐posedness issue caused by the inherent subsurface complexities and the generally spatially sparse data. Appropriate simplifications of inversion models are thus necessary to make the inversion process tractable and meanwhile preserve the predictive ability of the inversion results. In this study, we investigate the effect of model complexity on fracture aperture inversion and thermal performance prediction in a field‐scale EGS model. Principal component analysis was used to map the aperture field to a low‐dimensional latent space. The complexity of the inversion model was quantitatively represented by the percentage of total variance in the original aperture fields preserved by the latent space. Tracer, pressure and flow rate data were used to invert for fracture aperture through an ensemble‐based inversion method, and the inferred aperture field was used to predict thermal performance. With an over‐simplified aperture model, ensemble collapse occurred. The inverted aperture models failed to resolve necessary flow and transport features, leading to a biased thermal performance prediction. A complex aperture model involved excessive features and was prone to overinterpreting the inversion data. Both the tracer/pressure/flow rate data reproduction and thermal prediction showed significant uncertainties, making it difficult to properly estimate long‐term thermal performance. Fortunately, our results indicate that there exists an appropriate model complexity which can simultaneously match inversion data and predict thermal performance with an acceptable uncertainty. The quality of the fit of tracer data appears to be a useful indicator of such an appropriate model complexity.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Combining pairwise structural similarity and deep learning interface contact prediction to estimate protein complex model accuracy in CASP15
Abstract Estimating the accuracy of quaternary structural models of protein complexes and assemblies (EMA) is important for predicting quaternary structures and applying them to studying protein function and interaction. The pairwise similarity between structural models is proven useful for estimating the quality of protein tertiary structural models, but it has been rarely applied to predicting the quality of quaternary structural models. Moreover, the pairwise similarity approach often fails when many structural models are of low quality and similar to each other. To address the gap, we developed a hybrid method (MULTICOM_qa) combining a pairwise similarity score (PSS) and an interface contact probability score (ICPS) based on the deep learning inter‐chain contact prediction for estimating protein complex model accuracy. It blindly participated in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022 and performed very well in estimating the global structure accuracy of assembly models. The average per‐target correlation coefficient between the model quality scores predicted by MULTICOM_qa and the true quality scores of the models of CASP15 assembly targets is 0.66. The average per‐target ranking loss in using the predicted quality scores to rank the models is 0.14. It was able to select good models for most targets. Moreover, several key factors (i.e., target difficulty, model sampling difficulty, skewness of model quality, and similarity between good/bad models) for EMA are identified and analyzed. The results demonstrate that combining the multi‐model method (PSS) with the complementary single‐model method (ICPS) is a promising approach to EMA.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections
Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modelling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally-based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.
Climate↗
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections
Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling Complex Calorimeters
We have developed a software suite that models complex calorimeters in the time and frequency domain. These models can reproduce all measurements that we currently do in a lab setting, like IV curves, impedance measurements, noise measurements, and pulse generation. Since all these measurements are modeled from one set of parameters, we can fully describe a detector and characterize its behavior. This leads to a model than can be used effectively for engineering and design of detectors for particular applications.
Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali↗
The Influence of Model Complexity on the Impact Response of a Shuttle Leading-Edge Panel Finite Element Simulation
LS-DYNA simulations were conducted to study the influence of model complexity on the response of a typical Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panel to a foam impact at a location approximately midway between the ribs. A structural model comprised of Panels 10, 11, and TSeal 11 was chosen as the baseline model for the study. A simulation was conducted with foam striking Panel 10 at Location 4 at an alpha angle of 10 degrees, with an impact velocity of 1000 ft/sec. A second simulation was conducted after removing Panel 11 from the model, and a third simulation was conducted after removing both Panel 11 and T-Seal 11. All three simulations showed approximately the same response for Panel 10, and the simplified simulation model containing only Panel 10 was shown to be significantly less expensive to execute than the other two more complex models.
Jones, Lisa E.↗
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1°C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2°C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3°C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23°C(±0.12°C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Machine Learning in Environmental Chemistry: Application to Surface Complexation Modeling
Environmental chemistry – or biogeochemistry – is the scientific discipline typically invoked when examining and quantifying groundwater or surface water contamination, and nutrient cycling in the environment. Over the last three decades, there have been significant advances in mechanistic model development to describe and predict these complex biogeochemical processes. In particular, surface complexation models (SCMs) have been developed to describe the rock/soil surface reactions of metals and radionuclides, and their partitioning between various mobile species in the aqueous phase or immobile species sorbed on solid surfaces. Often represented by a simplified linear isotherm constant – Kd – in reactive transport models, these reactions play a critical role in many environmental science applications; particularly in contamination risk assessments and nuclear waste disposal performance assessments. In the past several decades, efforts by various institutions across the world have focused on developing SCMs based on datasets from laboratory measurements, including the identification of key parameters such as equilibrium constants.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Computation of wind tunnel wall effects for complex models using a low-order panel method
A technique for determining wind tunnel wall effects for complex models using the low-order, three dimensional panel method PMARC (Panel Method Ames Research Center) has been developed. Initial validation of the technique was performed using lift-coefficient data in the linear lift range from tests of a large-scale STOVL fighter model in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) facility. The data from these tests served as an ideal database for validating the technique because the same model was tested in two wind tunnel test sections with widely different dimensions. The lift-coefficient data obtained for the same model configuration in the two test sections were different, indicating a significant influence of the presence of the tunnel walls and mounting hardware on the lift coefficient in at least one of the two test sections. The wind tunnel wall effects were computed using PMARC and then subtracted from the measured data to yield corrected lift-coefficient versus angle-of-attack curves. The corrected lift-coefficient curves from the two wind tunnel test sections matched very well. Detailed pressure distributions computed by PMARC on the wing lower surface helped identify the source of large strut interference effects in one of the wind tunnel test sections. Extension of the technique to analysis of wind tunnel wall effects on the lift coefficient in the nonlinear lift range and on drag coefficient will require the addition of boundary-layer and separated-flow models to PMARC.
Ashby, Dale L.↗
Review of "ML for Surface Complexation Model Development"
The presentation given by Jadallah Zouabe on “ML for Surface Complexation Model Development”was extremely informative, but lacked some explanation of details that made the latter half hard to follow as someone outside of the field. He began his presentation with an anecdote to spilling milk or ink on the floor and seeing it spread, cleverly connecting that to the spread of contamination in the real world. He then explained the importance of being able to model contamination, as it allows specialists to see the potential effects on different areas and environments in the coming years. Heal so made it clear that the main issue trying to be addressed here is how expensive modelling is and that their goal is to make computationally cheaper models. The introduction was overall very well formulated and attention-grabbing, but it seemed to take up too much of the presentation time, as after this point the presentation lacked details and explanations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Mechanisms of Zn removal from water by amorphous geopolymer: Molecular-level insights from X-ray absorption spectroscopy, isotope fractionation, and surface complexation modeling
Porous geopolymers have attracted widespread attention as promising heavy metal adsorbents that can be synthesized from aluminosilicate solid wastes. However, the precise microstructural evidence for adsorbed heavy metals on geopolymers remains unclear due to the insensitivity of conventional characterization techniques on minerals with amorphous structure and surface disorder. Batch adsorption and column experiments coupled with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), Zn stable isotope, and surface complexation model (SCM) were employed to reveal the Zn removal mechanisms with coal fly ash porous geopolymer (CFAPG) at a molecular scale. The macroscopic kinetic and isothermal adsorption of Zn on CFAPG were well described by the pseudo-second-order model and Bi_Langmuir equation, respectively, indicating the presence of abundant heterogeneous active sites on the CFAPG surface. Further, two types of active sites on the CFAPG surface were identified by XAS coupled with Zn isotopes in batch experiments at pH <= 6.0: one is pH-dependent and associated with tetrahedral zinc coordi-nation, and the other is pH-insensitive and associated with octahedral zinc coordination; these sites were confirmed by the bidentate SCM as the variable charge site (surface complexation, >S-OH) and the permanent negative charge site (cation exchange, >X - ), respectively. Furthermore, the important contribution of surface co -precipitation besides surface complexation and cation exchange to the Zn adsorption on CFAPG was identified by XAS coupled with SCM in a flow-through column experiment at pH >6.0. These investigations provide a systemic understanding of the Zn adsorption mechanisms on CFAPG and an SCM reference for the application and prediction of geopolymers in heavy metal-contaminated water remediations.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
GDSA framework, a computational framework for complex modeling problems in radioactive waste management
This paper details a computational framework to produce automated, graphical workflows, and how this framework can be deployed to support complex modeling problems like those in nuclear engineering. Key benefits of the framework include: automating previously manual workflows; intuitive construction and communication of workflows through a graphical interface; and automated file transfer and handling for workflows deployed across heterogeneous computing resources. This paper demonstrates the framework's application to probabilistic post-closure performance assessment of systems for deep geologic disposal of nuclear waste. However, the framework is a general capability that can help users running a variety of computational studies.
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