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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

From minimum-viable-products to full models: a step-wise development of diagnostic forward models in support of design, analysis and modelling on the ST40 tokamak

Like most magnetic confined fusion experiments, the ST40 tokamak started off with a small subset of diagnostics and gradually increased the diagnostic set to include more complex and comprehensive systems. To make the most of each operational phase, forward models of various diagnostics are used and developed to aid design, provide consistency-checks during commissioning, test analysis methods, and build workflows to constrain high-level parameters to inform interpretation, theory and modelling. For new models and new analysis workflows, minimum-viable-products are released early, and their complexity is increased in a step-wise manner, facilitating the support of all programme phases on multiple parallel applications, while enabling learning opportunities and feedback loops. In this contribution we review the philosophy, scope and architecture of the framework under development. We discuss the details of some forward models, with examples on how they are used to aid diagnostic design, to investigate analysis methodologies through synthetic data, and how they are embedded in experimental analysis workflows. We compare previously published experimental results with new, more advanced analysis workflows employing more recent, detailed models and new diagnostic data, providing confirmation of the published material from the 2021–22 experimental campaign.

integrated data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1997

Thermal and Hydrologic Signatures of Soil Controls on Evaporation: A Combined Energy and Water Balance Approach with Implications for Remote Sensing of Evaporation

The overall goal of this research is to examine the feasibility of applying a newly developed diagnostic model of soil water evaporation to large land areas using remotely sensed input parameters. The model estimates the rate of soil evaporation during periods when it is limited by the net transport resulting from competing effects of capillary rise and drainage. The critical soil hydraulic properties are implicitly estimated via the intensity and duration of the first stage (energy limited) evaporation, removing a major obstacle in the remote estimation of evaporation over large areas. This duration, or "time to drying" (t(sub d)), is revealed through three signatures detectable in time series of remote sensing variables. The first is a break in soil albedo that occurs as a small vapor transmission zone develops near the surface. The second is a break in either surface to air temperature differences or in the diurnal surface temperature range, both of which indicate increased sensible heat flux (and/or storage) required to balance the decrease in latent heat flux. The third is a break in the temporal pattern of near surface soil moisture. Soil moisture tends to decrease rapidly during stage 1 drying (as water is removed from storage), and then become more or less constant during soil limited, or "stage 2" drying (as water is merely transmitted from deeper soil storage). The research tasks address: (1) improvements in model structure, including extensions to transpiration and aggregation over spatially variable soil and topographic landscape attributes; and (2) applications of the model using remotely sensed input parameters.

Salvucci, Guido D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Thermal and Hydrologic Signatures of Soil Controls on Evaporation: A Combined Energy and Water Balance Approach with Implications for Remote Sensing of Evaporation

The overall goal of this research is to examine the feasibility of applying a newly developed diagnostic model of soil water evaporation to large land areas using remotely sensed input parameters. The model estimates the rate of soil evaporation during periods when it is limited by the net transport resulting from competing effects of capillary rise and drainage. The critical soil hydraulic properties are implicitly estimated via the intensity and duration of the first stage (energy limited) evaporation, removing a major obstacle in the remote estimation of evaporation over large areas. This duration, or 'time to drying' (t(sub d)) is revealed through three signatures detectable in time series of remote sensing variables. The first is a break in soil albedo that occurs as a small vapor transmission zone develops near the surface. The second is a break in either surface to air temperature differences or in the diurnal surface temperature range, both of which indicate increased sensible heat flux (and/or storage) required to balance the decrease in latent heat flux. The third is a break in the temporal pattern of near surface soil moisture. Soil moisture tends to decrease rapidly during stage I drying (as water is removed from storage), and then become more or less constant during soil limited, or 'stage II' drying (as water is merely transmitted from deeper soil storage). The research tasks address: (1) improvements in model structure, including extensions to transpiration and aggregation over spatially variable soil and topographic landscape attributes; and (2) applications of the model using remotely sensed input parameters.

Salvucci, Guido D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The 30-kW ammonia arcjet technology

The technical results are summarized of a 30 kW class ammonia propellant arcjet technology program. Evaluation of previous arcjet thruster performance, including materials analysis of used thruster components, led to the design of an arcjet with improved performance and thermal characteristics. Tests of the new engine demonstrated that engine performance is relatively insensitive to cathode tip geometry. Other data suggested a maximum sustainable arc length for a given thruster configuration, beyond which the arc may reconfigure in a destructive manner. A flow controller calibration error was identified. This error caused previously reported values of specific impulse and thrust efficiency to be 20 percent higher than the real values. Corrected arcjet performance data are given. Duration tests of 413 and 252 hours, and several tests 100 hours in duration, were performed. The cathode tip erosion rate increased with increasing arc current. Elimination of power source ripple did not affect cathode tip whisker growth. Results of arcjet modeling, diagnostic development and mission analyses are also discussed. The 30 kW ammonia arcjet may now be considered ready for development for a flight demonstration, but widespread application of 30 kW class arcjet will require improved efficiency and lifetime.

Deininger, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis

Autonomy is an increasingly important technology for robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft. An important motivation for developing onboard autonomy is to enable quick response to dynamic environment and situations, including fault conditions that a spacecraft may encounter. The reliability of such autonomous capabilities depends on the quality of their knowledge of a spacecraft’s health state. Model-based approaches to fault management, i.e. model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD), is one approach to continuously verify correct behavior in addition to diagnosing symptoms to estimate the spacecraft’s health state. The proper functioning of MBFD is dependent on 1) the quality of the model that is analyzed and compared to the outputs of onboard sensors to estimate the system’s health state, and 2) the correct functioning of the diagnosis engine that interrogates the model and compares its analysis to observed system behavior. We are currently developing Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to provide the necessary confidence that MBFD systems are correctly estimating the health of on-board spacecraft components and systems. Our work is intended to narrow the gap between the rapidly maturing field of ModelBased System Engineering (including MBFD) and the less-well understood area of identifying and applying appropriate V&V techniques to MBFD. Our effort is investigating three areas: 1) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic model, 2) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine in isolation, and 3) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine and model in combination. This paper describes the work we have completed in the first area. We describe our approach to selecting a system to be represented by a model, the approach to modeling the system, the verification approach we developed for the model, and the results of the verification activity. We conclude with a description of the work remaining in the last two areas, which will be addressed over the next two years.

Chung, Seung↗
DOE OSTI2023

Process-Oriented Diagnostics: Principles, Practice, Community Development, and Common Standards

Process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) aim to provide feedback for model developers through model analysis based on physical hypotheses. However, the step from a diagnostic based on relationships among variables, even when hypothesis driven, to specific guidance for revising model formulation or parameterizations can be substantial. The POD may provide more information than a purely performance-based metric, but a gap between POD principles and providing actionable information for specific model revisions can remain. Furthermore, in coordinating diagnostics development, there is a trade-off between freedom for the developer, aiming to capture innovation, and near-term utility to the modeling center. Best practices that allow for the former, while conforming to specifications that aid the latter, are important for community diagnostics development that leads to tangible model improvements. Promising directions to close the gap between principles and practice include the interaction of PODs with perturbed physics experiments and with more quantitative process models as well as the inclusion of personnel from modeling centers in diagnostics development groups for immediate feedback during climate model revisions. Examples are provided, along with best-practice recommendations, based on practical experience from the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF). Common standards for metrics and diagnostics that have arisen from a collaboration between the MDTF and the Department of Energy’s Coordinated Model Evaluation Capability are advocated as a means of uniting community diagnostics efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Overcoming limitations of model-based diagnostic reasoning systems

The development of a model-based diagnostic system to overcome the limitations of model-based reasoning systems is discussed. It is noted that model-based reasoning techniques can be used to analyze the failure behavior and diagnosability of system and circuit designs as part of the system process itself. One goal of current research is the development of a diagnostic algorithm which can reason efficiently about large numbers of diagnostic suspects and can handle both combinational and sequential circuits. A second goal is to address the model-creation problem by developing an approach for using design models to construct the GMODS model in an automated fashion.

Holtzblatt, Lester J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants: 2nd Annual Report

For economic reasons, the nuclear industry is witnessing premature closure of nuclear power plants, despite excellent safety records. Operations and Maintenance (O&M) activities are some of the largest costs in operating legacy light-water plants. By reducing O&M costs, nuclear energy can become more economically competitive with other energy sources. This can be achieved by leveraging machine-learning and artificial intelligence technologies to develop data-driven algorithms to better diagnose potential faults within the system. Improved accuracy of the models can lead to a reduction in unnecessary maintenance, thus reducing costs associated with parts, labor, and unnecessary planned, forced, or extended outages. To address these challenges, the goal of this project is to perform research and development in the area of digital monitoring, i.e., the application of advanced sensor technologies (particularly wireless sensor technologies) and data science based analytic capabilities, to advance online monitoring and predictive maintenance in nuclear plants and improve plant performance (efficiency gain and economic competitiveness). This report summarizes the fiscal year 2020 research progress encompassing (1) different wireless vibration sensor and data indicators used to assess the health of a plant asset; (2) development of diagnostic models for fault detection; and (3) development of prognostic models for estimating the health of the system up to 7 days ahead.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of advanced diagnostic tools, models, and technoeconomic analyses for high-temperature heat transfer coefficient heat exchangers

This is a final technical report of a system designed to image fall particle receivers. High temperature heat is hard to store and move and using low cost materials, similar to sand, are ideal. However, particle-to-particle interactions can impact heat transfer mechanisms in these classes of materials. This report highlights our effects to utilize x-ray imaging to understand these dynamics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Air-Sea Feedbacks to the MJO through Process Evaluation of Observations and Models (Final Report)

The goal of our project was to enhance our understanding of the role of coupling in the simulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in coupled climate models. We developed diagnostics of precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature variability in climate models and investigated how they are related to metrics of MJO simulation performance. We found a relationship between models with a high spatial coherence of precipitation and a good propagation of the MJO through the Maritime Continent region, but no relationship between metrics of precipitation organisation and intensity. Analysis of coupled and uncoupled model simulations from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows that coupling systematically improved the MJO simulation in both metrics that we investigated. We analysed the role of background moisture gradients in the MJO simulation performance following Lim et al. (2018) and found that although the model to model variation in moisture gradients to the west of Indonesia was related to model MJO performance, in general no single moisture gradient was as good at explaining a large fraction of MJO performance across the models as compared to a linear combination of those metrics, which was able to explain a significant fraction of the variance in the MJO performance. Those relationships were much stronger for coupled simulations than uncoupled simulations and stronger for those metrics that measured propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent than for overall MJO activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE 2.4.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications.. Deprecations • Convergence Analysis tool (idaes/core/util/convergence): deprecated in favor of new Parameter Sweep tools. To be removed in v3.0.0. New Beta Capabilities • Parameter Sweep Tool (idaes.core.util.parameter_sweep) o A new API for defining and performing parameter sweep studies on IDAES models has been developed • Diagnostics Tools (idaes.core.util.model_diagnostics) o New methods for identifying duplicate variables and constraints have been added to the diagnostics toolbox o New tools for detecting ill conditioning in Jacobians have been developed and are available in the model_diagnostics module. These provide alternatives to the existing DegeneracyHunter toolbox, and will eventually be merged with this capability, but initial working versions have been provided as beta capabilities for interested users o IpoptConvergenceAnalysis (replaces deprecated Convergence Analysis tool):  A new tool for performing convergence analysis studies that leverages the new Parameter Sweep tools has been developed. This tool allows users to define the input parameters to their model and sampling methods for these (leveraging Pysmo's sampling tools) and to then solve their model across the sampled domains and return a summary of the solver performance (IPOPT only) Improved Models • Thickener model (idaes.models.unit_models.solid_liquid.thickener) o Improved model to include predictive correlations for unit sizing based on settling velocity measurements (steady-state only) • Modular Property Packages o Added general support for calculating critical properties of mixtures using defined Equation of State modules. New API defined for Equation of State modules in order to define the necessary constraints for calculating critical properties (most EoS modules DO NOT support calculation of critical properties (yet)) o Added new methods to Cubic Equation of State module to support calculation of critical properties

DiagnosticsToolbox↗
NASA NTRS1988

A model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone

A model simulation of the rapid development phaser of the Presidents' Day cyclone on February 19, 1979, is studied. Model trajectories and Eulerian analyses show that, during this phase, three airstreams converge into the cyclogenetic region. The evolution of the PJ-trough system and its associated tropopause fold is described, including the simulated surface low and the vertical profile of mass divergence which contributes to the decreasing sea-level pressure. The various terms of the vorticity equation are evaluated to identify the processes contributing to the increase in absolute vorticity. The nature and origin of airstreams entering the low-level circulation associated with rapid cyclogenesis are examined from a Lagrangian perspective.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced fast-ion transport calculations of m = n = 1 fishbone-like instabilities in MAST-U

Fast-ion transport associated with an m = n = 1 fishbone-like burst in MAST-U discharge 47128 is investigated using a reduced guiding-center-based transport model (ORBIT-Kick) constrained by multi-diagnostic measurements. The two-dimensional beam-emission spectroscopy system provides measurements of the core poloidal mode structure and fluctuation amplitude, while EFIT++ reconstructions constrained by the motional Stark effect diagnostic indicate a flat q-profile with q 0 > 1⁠, indicating the absence of a resonant q = 1 surface and supporting a pressure-driven infernal-mode interpretation. Analytic m = n = 1 displacement profiles consistent with the measured core mode structure and equilibrium constraints are used as the mode structure inputs to ORBIT-Kick. The calculations show that the dominant resonances occur between the mode and co-passing fast ions, producing redistribution localized near the magnetic axis. Synthetic neutron camera signals from TRANSP-Kick recover up to 90% of the experimentally observed neutron deficit at the time of peak mode amplitude, indicating that the measured m = n = 1 mode is a dominant contributor to core fast-ion transport. However, the synthetic neutron signals recover rapidly, whereas the measured neutron emission continues to decrease after the peak amplitude. In conclusion, the remaining discrepancy may arise from contributions not included in the present single-harmonic model, including higher-m and higher-n harmonics, multi-harmonic interactions, and additional transport mechanisms, motivating future diagnostic development and modeling efforts to resolve and incorporate these additional contributions.

Wong, Henry H. [University of California, Los Ange↗
NASA NTRS1982

An estimation of the condensation rates in three severe storm systems from satellite observations of the convective mass flux

A technique was developed for estimating the condensation rates of convective storms using satellite measurements of cirrus anvil expansion rates and radiosonde measurements of environmental water vapor. Three cases of severe convection in Oklahoma were studied and a diagnostic model was developed for integrating radiosonde data with satellite data. Two methods were used to measure the anvil expansion rates - the expansion of isotherm contours on infrared images, and the divergent motions of small brightness anomalies tracked on the visible images. The differences between the two methods were large as the storms developed, but these differences became small in the latter stage of all three storms. A comparison between the three storms indicated that the available moisture in the lowest levels greatly affected the rain rates of the storms. This was evident from both the measured rain rates of the storms and the condensation rates estimated by the model. The possibility of using this diagnostic model for estimating the intensities of convective storms also is discussed.

Mack, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Numerical model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone

A mesoscale model simulation of the Presidents' Day cyclone at 1200 GMT 18 February 1979 is presented which captures the upper-tropospheric intrusion of stratospheric air upstream of the East Coast and subsequent development of the surface cyclone. The model simulation is then used to examine the descent of the stratospheric air mass and the interaction of this air mass with a lower-tropospheric potential vorticity maximum associated with an inverted trough and coastal front along the East Coast. The model is also used to examine the processes that contribute to the rapid decrease of sea-level pressure and increase in lower-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity during the explosive development phase of the cyclone.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗