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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Wind ramp events validation in NWP forecast models during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multi-agency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015 - March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This region is well-known for its excellent wind resource. One of the biggest challenges for wind power production is the accurate forecasting of wind ramp events (large changes of generated power over short periods of time). Poor forecasting of the ramps requires large and sudden adjustments in conventional power generation, ultimately increasing the costs of power. A Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) was developed during the first WFIP experiment, held in the U.S. Great Plains (September 2011 - August 2012). The RT&M was designed to explicitly measure the skill of NWP models at forecasting wind ramp events. Here we apply the RT&M to 80-m (turbine hub-height) wind speeds measured by 19 sodars and 3 lidars, and to forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 3-km, and from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST), 750-m horizontal grid spacing, models. The diurnal and seasonal distribution of ramp events are analyzed, finding a noticeable diurnal variability for spring and summer but less for fall and especially winter. Also, winter has fewer ramps compared to the other seasons. The model skill at forecasting ramp events, including the impact of the modification to the model physical parameterizations, was finally investigated.

Djalalova, Irina V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

The relative contributions of increased resolution in the data assimilation and in the forecast model to satellite data impact

Assimilation cycles were carried out with two versions of the GLAS second order GCM: a coarse version with 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude resolution, called the C model, and a fine version with 2.5 deg latitude by 3 deg longitude resolution called the F model. For the two DST-6 cases where the combined influence of satellite data and model resolution are at a maximum at sea level, the relative contributions of increased resolution in the data assimilation and in the forecast models were evaluated. F model forecasts were generated from the C model SAT assimilation interpolated by the F grid, and C model forecasts were generated from the F model SAT assimilation interpolated to the C grid. These forecasts were then compared with the corresponding forecasts which had utilized the same grid resolution in the data assimilation and forecast models, CS and FS.

Atlas, R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Noah-Multiparameterization land-surface Model with Energy Research and Forecasting Model

The Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model is a high-performance atmospheric model built on the AMReX adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework, enabling efficient simulations on heterogeneous computing platforms that combine multicore processors with hardware accelerators. To support land–atmosphere interactions within ERF’s AMR-based environment, a land-surface model must be capable of operating directly on hierarchically refined meshes. In this work, we present a methodology for coupling the Fortran-based Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land-surface model with ERF’s C++ codebase. Rather than rewriting Noah-MP, we construct a Fortran–C interoperability layer using CodeScribe, a tool that leverages large language models (LLMs) to automate the generation of interface code. CodeScribe applies structured prompting techniques to generate bindings that support efficient data exchange and function calls between ERF and Noah-MP. The coupling framework also incorporates AMR-aware data handling strategies, allowing NoahMP to operate seamlessly within ERF’s hierarchical mesh structure. This work provides a structured approach for integrating legacy Fortran models into modern C++-based modeling systems using LLM-assisted code generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Central Role of Air Quality Observations in NASA's GEOS Composition Forecasting Model

The NASA GEOS composition forecast model (GEOS-CF) provides global, high-resolution (25 km) air quality forecasts in near-real time. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest compared to current, publicly-available global composition forecasts.Air quality observations are an indispensable tool to evaluate the model's ability to capture the strong temporal and spatial gradients of air pollutants across the globe. We show how comparisons against near-real time observations available through OpenAQ (www.openaq.org) demonstrate the model's overall success in reproducing surface concentrations of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and PM2.5. This analysis also helps identifying current limitations of the model, for example over South America. The model-observation mismatches are most likely caused by uncertainties in the emissions data. Using the example of Rio de Janeiro, we show how the model skill can be improved by using local, high-resolution emission inventories in combination with air quality data.

Keller, Christoph A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Forecast model applications of retrieved three dimensional liquid water fields

Forecasts are made for tropical storm Emily using heating rates derived from the SSM/I physical retrievals described in chapters 2 and 3. Average values of the latent heating rates from the convective and stratiform cloud simulations, used in the physical retrieval, are obtained for individual 1.1 km thick vertical layers. Then, the layer-mean latent heating rates are regressed against the slant path-integrated liquid and ice precipitation water contents to determine the best fit two parameter regression coefficients for each layer. The regression formulae and retrieved precipitation water contents are utilized to infer the vertical distribution of heating rates for forecast model applications. In the forecast model, diabatic temperature contributions are calculated and used in a diabatic initialization, or in a diabatic initialization combined with a diabatic forcing procedure. Our forecasts show that the time needed to spin-up precipitation processes in tropical storm Emily is greatly accelerated through the application of the data.

Raymond, William H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. Furthermore, the framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model preparation and labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using load forecasting needs and data characteristics as input features, multiple metalearners are used to rank the candidate load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism is proposed to weights recommendations from each meta-leaner and make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different temporal and technical requirements at different load aggregation levels are set up to train, validate, and test the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the meta-learning based approach is satisfactory in both seen and unseen forecasting tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Disease Modeling & Forecasting Center [PowerPoint]

The Global Disease Modeling & Forecasting Center works in union with academia, industry, the US Government and global partners to develop, validate, and operationalize epidemiological models to combat infectious diseases. It's mission is to Apply multi-scale modeling and advanced data science to help the world detect, understand, forecast, prevent, and provide decision support in response to emerging and re-emerging disease outbreaks. The presentation explains LANL's role in more detail.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

Molthan, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1980

A short-range objective nocturnal temperature forecasting model

A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular location and receive an hour-by-hour prediction of surface and air temperatures for that location for an entire night. The user has the option of putting in his own estimates of wind speeds and background sky radiation which are treated as independent variables. An analysis of 141 test runs show that 57.4% of the time the model predicts to within 1 C for the best cases and to within 3 C for 98.0% of all cases.

Sutherland, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72‐hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

Kabuchanga, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmospheric Composition Forecast Model Evaluation Using Ozone Measurements Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar

The Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) is a mobile ground based lidar system based at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia. Between 2022 and 2024, LMOL collected over 2500 hours of ozone measurements for a range of different atmospheric conditions, including calm days, stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. Here, the data is used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of NASA’s Global GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model. GEOS-CF makes daily three-dimensional forecasts of trace gases and aerosol species. Overall, for calm periods, the forecast model predicts lower tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy (within 20%). The model best predicts the timing and extent of stratospheric intrusions but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratio. Among the other types of atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model forecasts. Based on this analysis, model forecasts are utilized to determine future data acquisition opportunities with the goal of providing feedback to the modeling teams, thereby enabling them to better understand the model biases and improve the model forecasts of ozone during these different atmospheric conditions.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRS2012

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Surface Pressure Dependencies in the Geos-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

Carbon Monitoring System↗