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DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Implicit Adaptive Low Rank Time-Stepping Methods for Matrix Differential Equations

In this work, we develop implicit rank-adaptive schemes for time-dependent matrix differential equations. The dynamic low rank approximation (DLRA) is a well-known technique to capture the dynamic low rank structure based on Dirac–Frenkel time-dependent variational principle. In recent years, it has attracted a lot of attention due to its wide applicability. Our schemes are inspired by the three-step procedure used in the rank adaptive version of the unconventional robust integrator (the so called BUG integrator) (Ceruti et al. in BIT Numer Math 62(4):1149–1174, 2022) for DLRA. First, a prediction (basis update) step is made computing the approximate column and row spaces at the next time level. Second, a Galerkin evolution step is invoked using an implicit solves for the small core matrix. Finally, a truncation is made according to a prescribed error threshold. Since the DLRA is evolving the differential equation projected on to the tangent space of the low rank manifold, the error estimate of the BUG integrator contains the tangent projection (modeling) error which cannot be easily controlled by mesh refinement. This can cause convergence issue for equations with cross terms. To address this issue, we propose a simple modification, consisting of merging the row and column spaces from the explicit step truncation method together with the BUG spaces in the prediction step. In addition, we propose an adaptive strategy where the BUG spaces are only computed if the residual for the solution obtained from the prediction space by explicit step truncation method, is too large. Here, we prove stability and estimate the local truncation error of the schemes under assumptions. We benchmark the schemes in several tests, such as anisotropic diffusion, solid body rotation and the combination of the two, to show robust convergence properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-Varying Output Delay Compensation-A Model-Free Approach and its Application on Cooperative On-Ramp Merging

This paper presents a model-free approach to compensate for time-varying output delay in networked control systems. The proposed architecture combines a model-free observer and the Smith predictor. The model-free observer estimates the current state while handling modeling errors and uncertainties of the system. The Smith predictor moves the effect of time delay outside the control closed-loop using the estimated delayed output and the actual output of the plant. The proposed method is applied to a cooperative on-ramp merging problem. First, an ultra-local model predictive control is implemented to provide a computationally efficient online speed planner agnostic to the vehicle dynamics. After that, a model-free observer is designed to estimate the current state. Finally, the proposed architecture is tested against a time-varying output delay with an upper bound of 200 milliseconds. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with improved tracking of intervehicle distance.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

DOE OSTI2025

An adaptive, data-driven multiscale approach for dense granular flows

The accuracy of coarse-grained continuum models of dense granular flows is limited by the lack of high-fidelity closure models for granular rheology. One approach to addressing this issue, referred to as the hierarchical multiscale method, is to use a high-fidelity fine-grained model to compute the closure terms needed by the coarse-grained model. The difficulty with this approach is that the overall model can become computationally intractable due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity model. In this work, we describe a multiscale modeling approach for dense granular flows that utilizes neural networks trained using high-fidelity discrete element method (DEM) simulations to approximate the constitutive granular rheology for a continuum incompressible flow model. Our approach leverages an ensemble of neural networks to estimate predictive uncertainty that allows us to determine whether the rheology at a given point is accurately represented by the neural network model. Additional DEM simulations are only performed when needed, minimizing the number of additional DEM simulations required when updating the rheology. This adaptive coupling significantly reduces the overall computational cost of the approach while controlling the error. In addition, the neural networks are customized to learn regularized rheological behavior to ensure well-posedness of the continuum solution. We first validate the approach using two-dimensional steady-state and decelerating inclined flows. We then demonstrate the efficiency of our approach by modeling three-dimensional sub-aerial granular column collapse for varying initial column aspect ratios, where our multiscale method compares well with the computationally expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-DEM simulation.

Dense granular flows↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design Report on the MiniFuel Instrumented Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects

Most nuclear fuels irradiations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) over the past decade have been conducted using MiniFuel—a static capsule design employing subscale fuel specimens to collect separate-effects irradiated fuel performance data. Irradiation conditions for MiniFuel experiments are predicted pre-test using reactor physics, and thermal models are verified post-irradiation via SiC dilatometry and various spectrometry methods. Relevant fuel performance parameters are also observed post-irradiation in a hot cell, thereby providing a single data point for each parameter representing the cumulative effects of the irradiation conditions. Substantially more data can be harvested from a single test and within a shorter duration by instrumenting irradiation vehicles and measuring desired quantities in situ. This report presents the design and analysis of the MiniFuel INstrumented Irradiation Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects (MINITAURE)—an instrumented test rig based on the separate-effects MiniFuel concept that aims to capture fission gas release (FGR) and thermal conductivity degradation of fuel specimens during irradiation in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). MINITAURE will be integrated with the Materials Irradiation Facility (MIF) located in the HFIR building outside the reactor containment. The MIF will act as the instrumentation and control center for the experiment, enabling real-time feedback from in situ sensors and control of irradiation temperatures via a gas delivery system. Two unique capsule designs were developed to capture each phenomenon: the thermal conductivity capsule, which uses a thermopile method to estimate fuel specimen thermal conductivity, and the fission gas release capsule, which will have continuous flowing gas communication to high-purity germanium detectors that are housed in the MIF for monitoring FGR. This report details the reactor physics and heat transfer modeling activities that were used to inform the experiment design and predict capsule performance. It also describes out-of-pile activities conducted to stand up this new capability and verify the measurement techniques. Modeling efforts to date have demonstrated the feasibility of the in situ measurement techniques and supported the development of the MINITAURE assembly configuration. Out-of-pile testing of the thermal conductivity measurement shows promise in capturing relative changes in thermal conductivity. However, significant errors exist in the measured absolute value, posing a need for further refinement.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Considerations for Estimating Degradation in PV Modules

Carefully controlled laboratory experiments and measurements can enable the determination of acceleration factors suitable for extrapolation to durability and performance of a fielded PV module. Ideally, a single mechanism can be identified with appropriate acceleration factors for extrapolation to the field. However, even with a single mechanism, the inherent uncertainty in these factors leads to uncertainty in the extrapolation which is greater the higher the acceleration factor. This course will explain how because of the wide range of acceleration factors for a given degradation mode, utilizing acceleration factors greater than about 10x will typically lead to unacceptable uncertainty in the results. Therefore, if even just a rank ordering of materials is desired, acceleration factors must be minimized which requires a good general understanding of the scale of the different acceleration factors for the degradation mode of interest. In this tutorial we will discuss what the different purposes are for many of the accelerated stress tests used today. E.g., what is a qualification test, a highly accelerated stress test, a rank ordering test, or a service life prediction test. We will discuss how one can understand the relationship between test results and expected field performance. A single accelerated stress test condition cannot duplicate outdoor exposure for all possible degradation pathways; therefore, one must use targeted evaluation of material properties at different stress levels to determine the relevant acceleration factors and fit it to a model. We will also discuss how to interpret the results of experiments understanding what is relevant/not relevant, or not e valuated in a test. There are many common error people make in their test interpretations because they push the stress levels to be too harsh. This creates biases and can mask the relevant failure modes and mechanisms or will erroneously lead one to over design materials against things that aren't relevant. Several case studies will be presented to illustrate appropriate interpretation of accelerated stress testing results.

degradation↗

DOE OSTI2024

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Videos, photos, and AI-derived grain size data associated with “High-throughput AI Video Surveys Enable Reproducible Multiscale Sediment Size Mapping, with Implications for Hydrobiogeochemical Parameterization”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “High-throughput AI Video Surveys Enable Reproducible Multiscale Sediment Size Mapping, with Implications for Hydrobiogeochemical Parameterization” under review. This data package includes five data types: 1) raw photos and videos from drone survey and walking smartphone surveys; 2) images derived from raw videos; 3) manual labeling of reference scales; 4) metadata for all images and photo resolution derived from artificial intelligence (AI) models or manual labels, 5) grain size data obtained from AI models for all photos, 6) metadata and grain size data after quality control, 7) summaries of sample efficiency for all data, and 8) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data used to support hydro-biogeochemical (HBGC) parameter estimation. Such data is used to 1) demonstrate significant improvements in accuracy, efficiency, and quality control for grain size data collection with the help of AI models, 2) study the spatial heterogeneity of grain size and observation reproducibility based on tens of thousands of data points generated by the AI models, and 3) evaluate the impacts of grain size heterogeneity on key HBGC parameters across sediment-to-reach and hourly-to-yearly scales. In particular, the data package contains 116 folders and 179696 files. The files include 41 videos in .mov format, 64047 photos in .jpg format, 13541 video-derived photos in .png format, 12747 segmentation mask data in .tif format, 12747 segmentation data in .json format, 24771 .csv files that with metadata and grain size for each individual photo as well as water depth and velocity data from CFD and observation, 51791 .txt files of raw AI predicted labels, and 11 flight record data in .srt format. The summary for all metadata and grain size statistics information is included in “Scales_V3_NG.csv” and “Statistics_V3_NG.csv”. The summary for data that pass data quality control (QC) level 0-2 is included in “QCStatistics_V3_NG.csv”. The QC level 0 represents photos whose photo resolution is positive, excluding photos that miss reference scale. The QC level 1 means reference scale circularity uncertainty is less than 5% for smartphone images while representing photo resolution is larger than 0.44 mm/pixel for drone images. The QC level 2 means excluding photos whose grain number is less than 100, a minimum number of grains recommended by classic literature. The summary for each video’s name, length, frame rates, survey area, grain number, survey efficiency, etc. can be found in “QCSummary_V3_NG.csv”. The summary for site name, GPS coordinates, and number of images at each site can be found in “SitesSummary_V3_*.csv” files. Overall computational efficiency summary is reported in Table 4 of accompanying manuscript. Additionally, the nitrate concentration data used in this work was downloaded from an existing dataset published on ESS-DIVE (Boat-Dragged Sensor Hanford Reach.csv; Conner A. et al., 2020). We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Port of Benton, and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the data were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate data collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗