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At least 19 records

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Virtual Synchronous Machine Grid-Forming Inverter Model Specification (REGFM_B1)

This report describes a generic virtual synchronous machine (VSM) grid-forming inverter (GFM) model - REGFM_B1. The initial model specification was proposed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), General Electric (GE), and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) also provided inputs to the specification. The model specification has been revised multiple times based on the discussions between all the contributors listed in this report. This work was funded by the Universal Interoperability for Grid-Forming Inverters (UNIFI) Consortium. This generic model is developed to help the utility industry understand the concept of VSM GFMs. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment mature and improve, generic models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Standard Library Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource Model Specification (REGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library grid-forming (GFM) hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The GFM hybrid control approach implements both a typical GFM control and a typical grid-following (GFL) control inside one single inverter simultaneously, so that it can take advantage of both methods without comprising the benefits of a typical GFM. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control blocks to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Standard Library Plant Controller Model Specification for a Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource (REPCGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library plant controller model to interface with the grid-forming hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control algorithms to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Subject-specific modeling framework for particle deposition using computational fluid dynamics

Quantifying particle deposition and dose in the respiratory tract requires a physiologically realistic representation and reproducible computational workflows. However, existing modeling frameworks, such as the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) compartmental models and the Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) tool, lack detailed deposition profiles and subject-specific capabilities. The combination of advances in computer vision algorithms applied to the respiratory tract and Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics (CFPD) allows high-fidelity simulations of particle behavior in anatomically accurate geometries derived from individual CT scans. The segmentation, preprocessing, and file preparation task for a CFPD simulation was often time-consuming, and no prior studies to-date have yet presented a fully automated framework. This work presents a fully automated workflow to obtain individualized particle deposition profiles in the human respiratory tract. The pipeline starts with segmenting upper and lower airway geometries using morphological and deep learning-based methods, generating three-dimensional (3D) models from CT imaging data. Next, a series of algorithms are presented to quality check and prepare the 3D geometry for a CFD or CFPD simulation. The preprocessing step includes correcting geometric artifacts, enforcing a physically consistent mesh, and automatically identifying and capping multiple outlets, which is required for CFD/CFPD simulations. These processed models are then input into open-source (OpenFOAM) or commercial (StarCCM+) CFD solvers, where flow and transient particle transport equations — including turbulence and particle–wall interactions are solved under realistic breathing conditions. Finally, the resulting particle deposition profiles can be integrated with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes and state-of-the-art computational phantoms to assess organ-specific absorbed doses in scenarios of radioactive aerosol inhalation. The presented work streamlines respiratory tract segmentation, preprocessing for CFD/CFPD simulations, and integration with dose assessment workflows, reducing manual intervention and improving access to high-fidelity, subject-specific modeling. The high precision in predicted particle deposition and dose distributions can improve personalized treatment strategies in respiratory medicine and refine dose estimates for radiation protection.

AI↗

Update on Model Specification Development of Ternary Pumped Storage Technologies [Slides]

T-PSH is an innovative structure of C-PSH that features two turbines, one for pumping and one for generation, replacing the single turbine in C-PSH. These turbines are housed in separate chambers, with an additional set of penstocks connecting the pump turbine to the hydraulic system. This structure enables T-PSH to operate in an HSC mode, allowing for simultaneous pumping and generation, which provides greater operational flexibility compared to C-PSH. To model T-PSH's HSC mode, a user defined turbine and governor system model is required, including the shared penstock model and additional pump turbine model. This specification will focus on the details of the user-defined turbine and governor model, which leverages the HYGOV model.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Exposing new taxonomic variation with inflammation — a murine model-specific genome database for gut microbiome researchers

The murine CBA/J mouse model widely supports immunology and enteric pathogen research. This model has illuminated Salmonella interactions with the gut microbiome since pathogen proliferation does not require disruptive pretreatment of the native microbiota, nor does it become systemic, thereby representing an analog to gastroenteritis disease progression in humans. Despite the value to broad research communities, microbiota in CBA/J mice are not represented in current murine microbiome genome catalogs. Here we present the first microbial and viral genomic catalog of the CBA/J murine gut microbiome. Using fecal microbial communities from untreated and Salmonella-infected, highly inflamed mice, we performed genomic reconstruction to determine the impacts on gut microbiome membership and functional potential. From high depth whole community sequencing (~ 42.4 Gbps/sample), we reconstructed 2281 bacterial and 4516 viral draft genomes. Salmonella challenge significantly altered gut membership in CBA/J mice, revealing 30 genera and 98 species that were conditionally rare and unsampled in non-inflamed mice. Additionally, inflamed communities were depleted in microbial genes that modulate host anti-inflammatory pathways and enriched in genes for respiratory energy generation. Our findings suggest decreases in butyrate concentrations during Salmonella infection corresponded to reductions in the relative abundance in members of the Alistipes. Strain-level comparison of CBA/J microbial genomes to prominent murine gut microbiome databases identified newly sampled lineages in this resource, while comparisons to human gut microbiomes extended the host relevance of dominant CBA/J inflammation-resistant strains. This CBA/J microbiome database provides the first genomic sampling of relevant, uncultivated microorganisms within the gut from this widely used laboratory model. Using this resource, we curated a functional, strain-resolved view on how Salmonella remodels intact murine gut communities, advancing pathobiome understanding beyond inferences from prior amplicon-based approaches. Salmonella-induced inflammation suppressed Alistipes and other dominant members, while rarer commensals like Lactobacillus and Enterococcus endure. The rare and novel species sampled across this inflammation gradient advance the utility of this microbiome resource to benefit the broad research needs of the CBA/J scientific community, and those using murine models for understanding the impact of inflammation on the gut microbiome more generally.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Model Specification of Droop-Controlled, Grid-Forming Inverters (REGFM_A1)

This document describes a positive-sequence model of droop-controlled, grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs). It can be considered as an initial model for evaluating the impacts of GFM IBRs on the transients and dynamics of transmission systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Synthesis of Correct Digital Controller Models from Specifications by Model Transformation (21-0320)

The design of high consequence controllers (in weapons systems, autonomy, etc.) that do what they are supposed to do is a significant challenge. Testing simply does not come close to meeting the requirements for assurance. Today circuit designers at Sandia (and elsewhere) typically capture the core behavior of their components using state models in tools such as STATEFLOW. They then check that their models meet certain requirements (e.g. “The system bus must not deadlock” or “both traffic lights at an intersection must not be green at the same time”) using tools called model checkers. If the model checker returns “yes” then the property is guaranteed to be satisfied by the model. However, there are several drawbacks to this industry practice: (1) there is a lot of detail to get right, this is particularly challenging when there are multiple components requiring complex coordination (2) any errors returned by the model checker have to be traced back through the design and fixed, necessitating rework, (3) there are severe scalability problems with this approach, particularly when dealing with concurrency. All this places high demands on the designers who now face not only an accelerated schedule but also controllers of increasing complexity. This report describes a new and fundamentally different approach to the construction of safety-critical digital controllers. Instead of directly constructing a complete model and then trying to verify it, the designer can start with an initial abstract (think “sketch”) model plus the requirements, from which a correct concrete model is automatically synthesized. There is no need for post-hoc verification of required functional properties. Having tool to carry this out will significantly impact the nation’s ability to ensure the safety of high-consequence digital systems. The approach has been implemented in a prototype tool, along with a suite of examples, including ones that reflect actual problems faced by designers. Our approach operates on a variant of Statecharts developed at Sandia called Qspecs. Statecharts are a widely used formalism for developing concurrent reactive systems, supporting scalability through allowing state models containing composite states, which are the serial or parallel composition of substates which can themselves contain statecharts. Statecharts enable an incremental style of development, in which states are progressively refined to incorporate greater detail in an incremental model of software development. Our approach formulates a set of constraints from the structure of the models and the requirements and propagates these constraints to a fixpoint. The solution to the constraints is an inductive invariant along with guards on the transitions. We also show how our approach extends to implementation refinement, decomposition, composition, and elaboration. We currently handle safety requirements written in LTL (Linear Temporal Logic)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development for Integrated System-Level Analysis Capabilities in SAM for Molten Salt Reactors

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) for their potential advantages compared to reactors that rely on solid fuel. In response to such interest, many methods and codes have been developed to capture the unique features of MSRs. Among them, the System Analysis Module (SAM) is a modern system analysis tool that provides fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analysis capabilities, essential for fast-turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. For liquid-fuel MSRs, the complex physics and chemistry involved in MSR operation—such as reactor kinetics, fluid flow, heat transfer, and salt composition dynamics—pose significant challenges for system-level modeling. Specific modeling capabilities are needed for system-level transient simulation. This paper presents recent advancements in SAM capability enhancements for system-level modeling of MSRs, focusing on improved simulation fidelity, computational efficiency, and multi-physics integration. Key enhancements include the development of species transport, Delayed Neutron Precursor (DNP) drift, modified Point Kinetics Equations (PKE), decay heat modeling, key fission product behavior, salt corrosion, and thermal-hydraulic coupling, as well as code robustness and performance enhancements for MSR applications. The code enhancement allows for better predictive accuracy in safety analysis, transient behavior, and operational optimization, thus supporting the design and licensing of next-generation MSRs. Results from case studies are presented to demonstrate the benefits of these enhancements in accurately capturing key reactor transient behaviors.

Hu, Rui (ORCID:0000000237712920)↗

Scalable Multiphysics Block Preconditioning for Low Mach Number Compressible Resistive MHD with Application to Magnetic Confinement Fusion

This study investigates multiphysics block preconditioners that are critical in devising scalable Newton–Krylov iterative solvers for longer time-scale fully implicit fluid plasma models. The specific model of interest is the visco-resistive, low Mach number, compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model. This model describes the dynamics of conducting fluids in the presence of electromagnetic fields and can be used to study aspects of astrophysical phenomena, important science and technology applications, and basic plasma physics. The specific application of interest that motivates this study is the macroscopic simulation of longer time-scale stability and disruptions of magnetic confinement fusion devices, specifically the ITER Tokamak. The computational solution of the governing balance equations for mass, momentum, heat transfer, and magnetic induction for resistive MHD systems can be extremely challenging. These difficulties arise from both the strong nonlinear, nonsymmetric coupling of fluid and electromagnetic phenomena as well as the significant range of time and length scales that the interactions of these physical mechanisms produce. To handle the range of time and spatial scales of interest, a fully implicit unstructured variational multiscale finite element formulation is employed. For the scalable solution of the Newton linearized systems, fully coupled block preconditioners are designed to leverage algebraic multigrid subsolves. In conclusion, results are presented for the strong and weak scaling of the method as well as the robustness of these techniques for a large range of Lundquist numbers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example

Global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) provide many climate services with environmental relevance. The High Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides model runs of GCMs and ESMs to address regional phenomena. Developing a parsimonious ensemble of CMIP6 requires multiple ensemble methods such as independent-model subset selection, prescreening-based subset selection, and model weighting. The work presented here focuses on application-specific optimal model weighting, with prescreening-based subset selection. As such, independent ensemble members are categorized, selected, and weighted based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are problem-specific. We discuss the strengths and caveats of optimal model weighting using a case study of red tide prediction in the Gulf of Mexico along the West Florida Shelf. Red tide is a common name of specific harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, causing adverse socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Our results indicate the importance of prescreening-based subset selection as optimal model weighting can underplay robust ensemble members by optimizing error cancellation. Prescreening-based subset selection also provides insights about the validity of the model weights. By illustrating the caveats of using non-representative models when optimal model weighting is used, the findings and discussion of this study are pertinent to many other climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗