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This report develops guidance for monitoring, collection, and selection of field measurements for model validation.
Accidental inhalation of plutonium at the workplace is a non-negligible risk, even when rigorous safety standards are in place. The intake and retention of plutonium in the human body may be a source of concern. Thus, if there is a suspicion of a significant intake of plutonium, medical countermeasures such as chelation treatment may be administered to the worker. The present work aimed to interpret the bioassay data of a worker involved in an inhalation incident due to a glovebox breach at Los Alamos National Laboratory’s plutonium facility. The worker was treated with intravenous injections of calcium salts of diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) in an attempt to reduce the amount of plutonium from the body and therefore reduce the internal radiation dose. It is well known in the internal dosimetry field that the administration of chelation treatment poses additional challenges to the dose assessment. Hence, a recently developed chelation model was used for the modeling of the bioassay data. The objectives of this work are to describe the incident, model the chelation-affected and non-affected bioassay data, estimate the plutonium intake, and assess the internal radiation dose.
Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. Project is part of the TEAMER (Testing & Expertise for Marine Energy) RFTS (request for technical support) system of WEC research projects. Testing data can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.
High-quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMUs, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. In this approach, the quality of a model is analyzed by visually comparing measured generator response with the model-based simulated response for large system disturbances. This paper proposes a new set of performance metrics to assess the model validation results to facilitate automation of the model validation process. In the proposed methodology, first, the slow governor response and comparatively faster oscillatory response are separated, and then a separate set of performance metrics is calculated for each of these two components. These proposed metrics quantify the mismatch between the actual and model-based response in a comprehensive manner without missing any information enabling automation of the process. Furthermore, in this paper, we are also proposing that the sensitivity analysis for model calibration be performed with respect to the proposed metrics for the systematic identification of key parameters. In this work, results obtained using both simulated and real-world case-studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics for model validation and their application to the sensitivity analysis for model calibration.
A system for enhanced power system model validation is provided. The system includes a computing device including at least one processor in communication with at least one memory device. The at least one processor is programmed to store a plurality of models for a plurality of devices and a plurality of input files associated with the plurality of models, receive, from a user, a selection of model of the plurality of models to simulate, retrieve one or more input files of the plurality of input files, perform a model validity check on the selected model, if the selected model passed the model validity check, perform a model calibration on the selected model, and if the selected model passed the model calibration, perform a post evaluation on the selected model.
Neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements are needed to improve interaction modeling to meet the precision needs of neutrino experiments in efforts to measure oscillation parameters and search for physics beyond the Standard Model. We review the difficulties associated with modeling neutrino-nucleus interactions that lead to a dependence on event generators in oscillation analyses and cross section measurements alike. We then describe data-driven model validation techniques intended to address this model dependence. The method relies on utilizing various goodness-of-fit tests and the correlations between different observables and channels to probe the model for defects in the phase space relevant for the desired analysis. These techniques shed light on relevant mismodeling, allowing it to be detected before it begins to bias the cross section results. We compare more commonly used model validation methods which directly validate the model against alternative ones to these data-driven techniques and show their efficacy with fake data studies. These studies demonstrate that employing data-driven model validation in cross section measurements represents a reliable strategy to produce robust results that will stimulate the desired improvements to interaction modeling.
Neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements are needed to improve interaction modeling to meet the precision needs of neutrino experiments in efforts to measure oscillation parameters and search for physics beyond the Standard Model. We review the difficulties associated with modeling neutrino-nucleus interactions that lead to a dependence on event generators in oscillation analyses and cross section measurements alike. We then describe data-driven model validation techniques intended to address this model dependence. The method relies on utilizing various goodness-of-fit tests and the correlations between different observables and channels to probe the model for defects in the phase space relevant for the desired analysis. These techniques shed light on relevant mismodeling, allowing it to be detected before it begins to bias the cross section results. We compare more commonly used model validation methods which directly validate the model against alternative ones to these data-driven techniques and show their efficacy with fake data studies. These studies demonstrate that employing data-driven model validation in cross section measurements represents a reliable strategy to produce robust results that will stimulate the desired improvements to interaction modeling.
This paper presents results and new insights gained from a hardware test campaign on a 2 MVA PV inverter for validating its vendor-supplied EMT model. The test campaign was conducted using a 7 MVA grid simulator and a 2 MW PV emulator. It considered both time-domain transient tests and frequency-domain impedance scan tests. The paper highlights the inadequacy of transient tests in capturing all critical resonance modes of the inverter, and the effectiveness of the frequency scan testing in addressing this problem. The paper shows the frequency scan testing as an effective tool for EMT model validation of IBR units which can highlight inaccuracies in the EMT models that are easy to overlook when model validation is performed using only the time-domain transient tests such as voltage ride-through and phase jump tests.
Contains data from the model validation in the 1D Heat Loss Models to Predict the Aquifer Temperature Profile during Hot/Cold Water Injection Project. The data include two COMSOL models (2D axisymmetric benchmark model and 2D Vinsome model), one python code (1D Vinsome based FEM numerical simulation), one matlab main code (1D Newton analytical solution and all results comparison visualization), and output files generated from the above models.
Predictive computational models have been developed to support the technical basis for extended dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in helium-backfilled cannisters. To date, these models have been optimized on a variety of irradiation experiments designed to elucidate the radiation-induced formation of molecular hydrogen gas, a radiolysis product that is potentially problematic for the safe storage of ASNF. However, the yield of nitric acid (HNO3) has not been determined, despite conservative predictions of its formation (300–4000 ppm) in 1% residual air environments irradiated in contact with ASNF. HNO3, another problematic radiolysis product, can lead to enhanced corrosion and potentially compromise storage canister integrity. Thus, to support the validation of predictive computer models, we report the measurement and quantification of HNO3 from the gamma irradiation of aluminum alloy coupons in humid air.
The energy associated with clothes drying makes up 4% of the total residential electrical energy consumption in the US. The cost is high since most clothes dryers use electric resistance heating which is inexpensive but also energy inefficient. State-of-the-art vapor-compression heat pump clothes dryers offer significant energy savings but have limited market penetration in the US. Here, a new configuration of clothes dryer was studied that utilizes a solid-state thermoelectric heat pump with pumped secondary water loops and conventional fin-and-tube water-to-air heat exchangers. Experimental results are presented for the thermoelectric dryer prototype with a combined energy factor of 6.89 lb BDW /kWh (specific moisture extraction rate of 1.71 kg w /kWh) and a dry time of 84 min for a standard load size of 8.45 lb (3.83 kg) with 57.5% starting moisture content. This is a 85% energy efficiency improvement over baseline electric resistance dryers. The efficiency and drying time results achieved are similar to vapor compression heat pump dryers. Compared to previous air-based thermoelectric clothes dryers, the energy efficiency has been increased by 6%, but drying time has been reduced by as much as 47% using secondary pumped loops and separate heat exchangers, which represents a significant advancement in the technology. In addition to the experimental prototype, a model was also developed to study the performance. The model was validated against experimental prototype data and used to identify the range of performance (dry time and efficiency) that could be expected of the design.
Here, the radiation-induced swelling of SiC and its composites, including strong dependencies on temperature and dose, can drive significant lateral bowing in the presence of temperature and/or dose gradients. In recent years, simulations have been performed to assess the extent of bowing in SiC composite light-water reactor (LWR) fuel cladding and boiling water reactor (BWR) channel boxes. However, to date, no integral experimental data exist to validate these models. This work provides the first experimental bowing evaluation of three ∼380 mm long SiC composite specimens irradiated under varying neutron dose gradients (∼50°C–60°C, 0.03–0.06 dpa): two tubes (∼9.8 mm diameter) and a miniature BWR channel box (∼30 mm square). The measured radiation-induced length swelling (∼0.3%–0.7% linear) was consistently 10%–21% higher than values obtained from 3D finite element structural analyses with inputs from 3D radiation transport calculations. This discrepancy could be at least partially explained by differences in dose rate (∼10 -8 dpa/s) compared to the literature data (∼10-6 dpa/s) used to establish the dose-to-swelling correlations in the model. Nevertheless, the modeled bowing magnitudes (<2 mm) obtained from finite element analyses and simple analytical equations were within the bounds of the experimental measurements for all specimens. With improved confidence in the ability to predict the structural response and measure the macroscopic deformations, future experiments will target transient bowing under neutron flux gradients at representative LWR temperatures and assess whether grid spacers can mitigate the tens of millimeters of bowing that would otherwise be expected in ∼4 m long LWR components.
As the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy resources increases in the power grid, especially at the distribution and microgrid levels, the need to accurately represent them in planning studies increases as well. However, due to the lack of well-established standard procedures, and vendor reluctance towards the detailed sharing of proprietary models, automated dynamic model validation and parameter calibration tools for inverter based resources (IBRs) remain scarce. This work presents a model validation and parameter calibration platform for representing IBRs with generic phasor-domain models. Phasor measurements of power system events are used for continuous validation using the data playback method, and model parameters are re-calibrated if a significant mismatch between measurements and model response is observed. Unique features of the proposed platform include- (a) an iterative Bayesian optimization approach towards parameter calibration to address a possible mismatch between the structures of generic models implemented in simulation softwares and actual commercial inverters, (b) error metrics designed to account for a possible mismatch between the time resolution of simulation and measurements, and (c) analysis of the measurement-simulation mismatch to provide guidance to engineering personnel regarding model shortcomings. The performance of the platform has been illustrated using both simulated data and field measurements to validate/calibrate inverter models in GridLAB-D.
This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.
The HYBRID modeling repository is a premier resource for integrated energy systems modeling. HYBRID models have been developed since 2015 to describe the physical operation of tightly coupled thermal systems including power generators, thermal transport systems, thermal storage, thermal-to-electric conversion systems, and other thermal applications. Due to the increased size of the repository, a concise summary matrix of available models is desired. This matrix will consolidate not only the list of available models but also indicate original information sources, publications that have model examples, and level of validation and verification that exists for the models. Validation and verification (V&V) levels begin from simplified algebraic relationship and advance to dynamic data validation. Moving forward, as new models are contributed to HYBRID, their V&V level will be included, updating this matrix.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established a need to understand the thermal-hydraulic properties of dry storage systems for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in response to a shift towards the storage of high-burnup (HBU) fuel (> 45 gigawatt days per metric ton of uranium, or GWd/MTU). This shift raises concerns regarding cladding integrity, which faces increased risk at the higher temperatures within spent fuel assemblies present within HBU fuel compared to low-burnup fuel (≤ 45 GWd/MTU). A dry cask simulator (DCS) was built at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico to produce validation-quality data that can be used to test the accuracy of the modeling used to predict cladding temperatures. These temperatures are critical to evaluating cladding integrity throughout the storage cycle of commercial spent nuclear fuel. A model validation exercise was previously carried out for the DCS in a vertical configuration. Lessons learned during the previous validation exercise have been applied to a new, blind study using a horizontal dry cask simulator (HDCS). Three modeling institutions – the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Empresa Nacional del Uranio, S.A., S.M.E. (ENUSA) – were granted access to the input parameters from the DCS Handbook, SAND2017-13058R, and results from a limited data set from the horizontal BWR dry cask simulator tests reported in the HDCS update report, SAND2019-11688R. With this information, each institution was tasked to calculate peak cladding temperatures and air mass flow rates for ten HDCS test cases. Axial as well as vertical and horizontal transverse temperature profiles were also calculated. These calculations were done using modeling codes (ANSYS/Fluent, STAR-CCM+, or COBRA-SFS), each with their own unique combination of modeling assumptions and boundary conditions. For this validation study, the ten test cases of the horizontal dry cask simulator were defined by three independent variables – fuel assembly decay heat (0.5 kW, 1 kW, 2.5 W, and 5 kW), internal backfill pressure (100 kPa and 800 kPa), and backfill gas (helium and air). The plots provided in Chapter 3 of this report show the axial, vertical, and horizontal temperature profiles obtained from the dry cask simulator experiments in the horizontal configuration and the corresponding models used to describe the thermal-hydraulic behavior of this system. The tables provided in Chapter 3 illustrate the closeness of fit of the model data to the experiment data through root mean square (RMS) calculations of the error in peak cladding temperatures (PCTs), PCT axial locations, axial temperature profiles, vertical and horizontal temperature profiles at two different axial locations, and air mass flow rates for the ten test cases, normalized by the experimental results. The model results are assigned arbitrary model numbers to retain anonymity. Due to the relatively flat axial temperature profiles, small temperature gradients resulted in large deviations of all models’ PCT axial location from the experimental PCT axial location. When the PCT axial location error is excluded in the calculation of the combined RMS of the normalized errors that considers PCT, the temperature profiles, and the air mass flow rates, the model data fits the experimental data to within 5%. When the vault information is excluded, the model data fits the experimental data to within 2.5%. An error analysis was developed further for one model, using the model and experimental uncertainties in each validation parameter to calculate validation uncertainties. The uncertainties for each parameter were used to define quantifiable validation criteria. For this analysis, the model was considered validated for a given comparison metric if the normalized error in that metric divided by the validation uncertainty was less than or equal to 1. When considering the combined RMS of the normalized errors of all metrics divided by their validation uncertainties, the model was found to have satisfied the criterion for model validation.
13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.
In this work, medium scale (30 cm diameter) methanol pool fires were simulated using the latest fire modeling suite implemented in Sierra/Fuego, a low Mach number multiphysics reacting flow code. The sensitivity of model outputs to various model parameters was studied with the objective of providing model validation. This work also assesses model performance relative to other recently published large eddy simulations (LES) of the same validation case. Two pool surface boundary conditions were simulated. The first was a prescribed fuel mass flux and the second used an algorithm to predict mass flux based on a mass and energy balance at the fuel surface. Gray gas radiation model parameters (absorption coefficients and gas radiation sources) were varied to assess radiant heat losses to the surroundings and pool surface. The radiation model was calibrated by comparing the simulated radiant fraction of the plume to experimental data. The effects of mesh resolution were also quantified starting with a grid resolution representative of engineering type fire calculations and then uniformly refining that mesh in the plume region. Simulation data were compared to experimental data collected at the University of Waterloo and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Validation data included plume temperature, radial and axial velocities, velocity temperature turbulent correlations, velocity velocity turbulent correlations, radiant and convective heat fluxes to the pool surface, and plume radiant fraction. Additional analyses were performed in the pool boundary layer to assess simulated flame anchoring and the effect on convective heat fluxes. This work assesses the capability of the latest Fuego physics and chemistry model suite and provides additional insight into pool fire modeling for nonluminous, non-sooting flames.