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Results for “model-data difference analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wave climate and energy resources in American Samoa from a 42-year high-resolution hindcast

Here, this paper presents an analysis of the wave climate and a characterization of the wave energy resources in American Samoa, a U.S. territory covering seven south central Pacific islands and atolls. A numerical wave model based on WAVEWATCH III® and unstructured SWAN was developed, validated, and executed for 1979–2020 to generate a hindcast dataset suitable for resource characterization. Model-data comparisons were performed with measurements collected in situ and from satellite-based altimeters. The model was found to perform well with a bias in significant wave height of -0.14 m and -0.06 m against buoy and altimeters, respectively. The multimodal sea state of American Samoa is investigated by identifying the sources of energy reaching the islands and partitioning the wave spectrum accordingly. The wave resources characterization follows the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specifications to be compatible with studies performed for other U.S. regions. The average omnidirectional wave power at 2 km from shore around Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, is 14 kW/m. Locations east and west of the islands have a more consistent resource throughout the year because the northwest and southwest swells that are dominant during different seasons complement each other.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model data for a watershed-scale study in the Portage River Basin (OH) examining the effects of subsurface drainage on the hydrologic response of an agricultural watershed.

This study builds on Rathore et al. (2024, WRR) and investigates the role of artificial tile-drainage on various aspects of watershed hydrological response, with a particular focus on peakflow. The model-data for the original modeling-focused paper (Rathore et al., 2024, WRR) is archived at Rathore et al. (2024, ESS-DIVE). Hence, this model-data archive provides scripts that are specific to this study that includes model updates, processing and analysis scripts. For details and models files of original model, readers are referred to Rathore et al. (2024, ESS-DIVE). The key difference between the model configuration in this study and Rathore et al. (2024, WRR) is that the tile drains are applied to the entire domain, to study the impact of tile-drains on different aspects of hydrological response. Additional scenario considering intensified precipitation after a dry period was also simulated. The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Response of Coastal Wetlands to Environmental Stresses: Algorithm Comparison of Numerical Models

Coastal wetlands are a critical component of the earth system that strongly influence the global water and biogeochemical cycles. They are also likely important sentinel of climate change. Because eco-geomorphological processes have long been recognized to be important for coastal wetland survival under accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), many eco-geomorphology models have been developed to assess the impact of climate change on coastal wetlands. Although these models differ substantially in complexity and numerical methods, few studies have investigated the algorithm-level uncertainties in these models. In this study, we developed a multiple-algorithm model framework of coastal wetlands that represents coastal hydrodynamics (such as water level, significant wave height and bottom shear stress) and four eco-geomorphological processes: mineral accretion, organic matter accretion, storm surge erosion and landward migration. We validated the model at three representative coastal wetland sites (Venice Lagoon, Plum Island Estuary and Hunter Estuary) for hydrodynamics, mineral accretion and organic matter accretion. Through model-data comparison, we showed that the model can well capture the dynamics of hydrodynamical and eco-geomorphological conditions in the study sites. Importantly, analysis of the multiple-algorithm simulations suggests that differences in the process representation of mineral and organic matter accretion may contribute to the recent contradicting predictions of coastal wetland evolution under accelerated SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

WHONDRS-GUI: a web application for global survey of surface water metabolites

Background The Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) is a consortium that aims to understand complex hydrologic, biogeochemical, and microbial connections within river corridors experiencing perturbations such as dam operations, floods, and droughts. For one ongoing WHONDRS sampling campaign, surface water metabolite and microbiome samples are collected through a global survey to generate knowledge across diverse river corridors. Metabolomics analysis and a suite of geochemical analyses have been performed for collected samples through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL). The obtained knowledge and data package inform mechanistic and data-driven models to enhance predictions of outcomes of hydrologic perturbations and watershed function, one of the most critical components in model-data integration. To support efforts of the multi-domain integration and make the ever-growing data package more accessible for researchers across the world, a Shiny/R Graphical User Interface (GUI) called WHONDRS-GUI was created. Results The web application can be run on any modern web browser without any programming or operational system requirements, thus providing an open, well-structured, discoverable dataset for WHONDRS. Together with a context-aware dynamic user interface, the WHONDRS-GUI has functionality for searching, compiling, integrating, visualizing and exporting different data types that can easily be used by the community. The web application and data package are available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1484811 , which enables users to simultaneously obtain access to the data and code and to subsequently run the web app locally. The WHONDRS-GUI is also available for online use at Shiny Server ( https://xmlin.shinyapps.io/whondrs/ ).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗