Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “model-data integration”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Codesign for Earth System Predictability

Abstract Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper. Significance Statement This study aims to provide perspectives on AI architectures and codesign approaches for Earth system predictability. Such visionary perspectives are essential because AI-enabled model-data integration has shown promise in improving predictions associated with climate change, perturbations, and extreme events. Our forward-looking ideas guide what is next in codesign to enhance Earth system models, observations, and theory using state-of-the-art and futuristic computational infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change

Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on (1) potential for acclimation, (2) response to elevated CO 2 , (3) role of the microbiome, and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mass Spectrometry Sample Submission Portal

Each step in the scientific process generates contextual information about the data that is important to consider when performing data integration, developing models of biological process, or training AI models. We will develop a flexible, template-driven tool that will log biological samples, capture metadata about those samples, and track the type(s) of analysis being performed by researchers providing samples for analysis by mass spectrometry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes

Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is motivating interest in adopting certain farming practices that have the potential to reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon in soil. The related GHG emission (including N 2 O and CH 4 ) and changes in soil carbon stock are defined here as “agricultural carbon outcomes”. Accurate quantification of agricultural carbon outcomes is the basis for achieving emission reductions for agriculture, but existing approaches for measuring carbon outcomes (including direct measurements, emission factors, and process-based modeling) fall short of achieving the required accuracy and scalability necessary to support credible, verifiable, and cost-effective measurement and improvement of these carbon outcomes. Here we propose a foundational and scalable framework to quantify field-level carbon outcomes for farmland, which is based on the holistic carbon balance of the agroecosystem: Agroecosystem Carbon Outcomes = Environment (E) × Management (M) × Crop (C). Following a comprehensive review of the scientific challenges associated with existing approaches, as well as their tradeoffs between cost and accuracy, we propose that the most viable path for the quantification of field-level carbon outcomes in agricultural land is through an effective integration of various approaches (e.g. diverse observations, sensor/in-situ data, and modeling), defined as the “System-of-Systems” solution. Such a “System-of-Systems” solution should simultaneously comprise the following components: (1) scalable collection of ground truth data and cross-scale sensing of environment variables (E), management practices (M), and crop conditions (C) at the local field level; (2) advanced modeling with necessary processes to support the quantification of carbon outcomes; (3) systematic Model-Data Fusion (MDF), i.e. robust and efficient methods to integrate sensing data and models at each local farmland level; (4) high computation efficiency and artificial intelligence (AI) to scale to millions of individual fields with low cost; and (5) robust and multi-tier validation systems and infrastructures to ensure solution fidelity and true scalability, i.e. the ability of a solution to perform robustly with accepted accuracy on all targeted fields. In this regard, we provide here the detailed scientific rationale, current progress, and future research and development (R&D) priorities to achieve different components of the “System-of-Systems” solution, thus accomplishing the Environment×Management×Crop framework to quantify field-level agricultural carbon outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-dominated Watersheds using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model: Datasets, scripts, model files

This model-data archive supports the research paper that demonstrates the integration of agricultural drainage features—specifically, narrow engineered ditches and tile drains—into a fully distributed, basin-scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrology model (ISSHM), Amanzi-ATS. The model employs innovative computational meshes aligned with agricultural ditches and incorporates the physically based Hooghoudt's drainage equation to simulate tile drainage, offering a novel strategy that enhances the accuracy of hydrological simulations.The archived dataset includes input parameters, model configurations, and select simulation outputs for the Amanzi-ATS model that successfully captured the streamflow patterns in the Portage River Watershed as validated by USGS gauge readings. Jupyter notebook for the preparation of model inputs and post-processing of outputs are also included. The model's predictive performance achieved a normalized Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.81, surpassing SWAT without the necessity for site-specific calibration.The Amanzi-ATS model presented in this modeL-data archive allows for numerical experiments to explore the shifts in the flow structure under different drainage scenarios. As a tool for advancing the understanding of distributed hydrological responses and nutrient cycling, this archived model provides valuable insights for researchers, modelers, and decision-makers involved in watershed management and environmental modeling.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model, open-source integrated hydrology, and transport model, are in XML format and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Atmosphere Observing System (AOS): Synergistic Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation Measurement and Modeling Systems

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (ACCP), with the ACCP Study concluding in early 2021. The new mission now in pre-phase A is being referred to as the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), an integral part of NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) strategy. The DS and the ACCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those of the individual DOs. A critical element of the ACCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires comprehensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, atmospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data for advancing operational predictions and to generate expanded hindcasts and reconstruction of the climate record.

Arlindo da Silva↗

Observing System Simulations for the AOS Mission

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) is NASA’s response to the recommendations of the 2017 Earth Sciences Decadal Survey conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The ESO is being conceived as a set of fully integrated missions addressing 4 main Earth science focus areas including aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation (jointly re-ferred to as AOS, the Atmosphere Observing System). ESO ground breaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societally relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitiga-tion, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. A critical element of the AOS observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sen-sors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires compre-hensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, at-mospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of the observing system simulation capabilities being developed for AOS, including global storm resolving nature runs, detailed instrument and retrieval simulators, as well as fast retrieval emulators for instrumenting climate models. This simulation environment, being developed under NASA’s open-source science initiative, will permit us to explore how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data, well before launch.

Arlindo da Silva↗

Model-Data Assimilation of Internal Waves during ASIAEX-2001

In recent Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX), extensive moorings have been deployed around the continental shelf break area in the northeast of South China Sea in May 2001. Simultaneous RADARSAT SAR images have been collected during the field test to integrate with the in-situ measurements from moorings, ship-board sensors, and CTD casts. Besides it provides synoptic information, satellite imagery is very useful for tracking the internal waves, and locating surface fronts and mesoscale features. During ASIAEX in May 2001, many large internal waves were observed at the test area and were the major oceanic features for acoustic volume interaction. Based on the internal wave distribution maps compiled from satellite data, the wave crest can be as long as 200 km with amplitude of 100 m. Environmental parameters have been calculated based on extensive CTD casts data near the ASIAEX area. Nonlinear internal wave models have been applied to integrate and assimilate both SAR and mooring data. Using SAR data in deep water as an initial condition, numerical simulations produce the wave evolution on the continental shelf and compared reasonably well with the mooring measurements at the downstream station. The shoaling, turning, and dissipation of large internal waves on the shelf break, elevation solitons, and wave-wave interaction have been studied and are very important issues for acoustic propagation. The internal wave effects on acoustic modal coupling has been implicated and discussed.

Liu, Antony↗

Information theory optimization of signals from small-angle scattering measurements

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) of particles in solution informs on the conformational states and assemblies of biological macromolecules (bioSAXS) outside of cryo- and solid-state conditions. In bioSAXS, the SAXS measurement under dilute conditions is resolution limited, and through an inverse Fourier transform, the measured SAXS intensities directly relate to the physical space occupied by the particles via the P (r)-distribution. Yet, this inverse transform of SAXS data has been historically cast as an ill-posed, ill-conditioned problem requiring an indirect approach. Here, we show that through the applications of matrix and information theories, the inverse transform of SAXS intensity data is a well-conditioned problem. The so-called ill-conditioning of the inverse problem is directly related to the Shannon number. By exploiting the oversampling enabled by modern detectors, a direct inverse Fourier transform of the SAXS data is possible, provided the recovered information does not exceed the Shannon number. The Shannon limit corresponds to the maximum number of significant singular values that can be recovered in a SAXS experiment, suggesting this relationship is a fundamental property of band-limited inverse integral transform problems. This correspondence reduces the complexity of the inverse problem to the Shannon limit and maximum dimension. We propose a hybrid scoring function using an information theory framework that assesses both the quality of the model-data fit as well as the quality of the recovered P (r)-distribution. The hybrid score utilizes the Akaike information criteria and Durbin-Watson statistic that considers parameter-model complexity, i.e., degrees of freedom, and the randomness of the model-data residuals. The described tests and findings extend the boundaries for bioSAXS by completing the information theory formalism initiated by Peter B. Moore to enable a quantitative measure of resolution in SAXS, robustly determine maximum dimension, and more precisely define the best parameter model appropriately representing the observed scattering data.

Rambo, Robert P. [Science and Technology Facilitie↗

Confronting Future Models with Future Satellite Observations of Clouds and Aerosols

The NASA Aerosol, Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) Study convened a workshop in November 2020 to understand the future of modeling aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation, and how satellite data can contribute to that future. ACCP is a project to define a satellite mission to be launched late in the 2020’s to advance cloud and aerosol science, following the recommendations of the latest NASA Decadal Survey. The ACCP modeling workshop goal was to answer the following questions: 1. What will be the critical science questions for clouds and aerosols in 10 years? 2. Where will simulations of clouds and aerosols across scales of space (process models to global) and time (nowcasting to climate prediction) be in 10 years? 3. What data will be available from space? What data would provide the most benefit? 4. What are the state of the art methods for confronting models with cloud and aerosol observations, including assimilation and climatological analysis techniques? The virtual workshop was anchored by a series of pre-recorded talks. Two days of synchronous sessions focused on discussion of the talks, along with small group breakout exercises. After an introduction to the ACCP concept came a panel discussing the future of modeling clouds and aerosols across scales. Participants were then asked to contribute their ideas. On the second day, there were two panel discussions. First came a discussion of the future of satellite observing systems. Second was a discussion of model-data synthesis methods. Finally, participants were asked to develop their own model-data synthesis proposal. The meeting began with an overview of the ACCP mission concept by Graeme Stephens (NASA-JPL). ACCP is a satellite mission for clouds and aerosols, likely anchored by advanced active lidar and radar systems in space, designed to observe detailed aerosol profile and type information, as well as cloud microphysics and dynamics. ACCP will integrate across sensors and observational types to get multi-spectral views of the same scenes, with better resolution than is available today. Launch is scheduled for 2027 or 2029. ACCP is being thought of as a comprehensive mission that may comprise more than one platform and more than one orbit plane (i.e., inclined and polar), with multiple combinations of sensors.

Future Models↗

Radiative Losses in the Chromosphere During A C-Class Flare

Context. Solar flares release an enormous amount of energy (~10(exp 32) erg) into the corona. A substantial fraction of this energy is transported to the lower atmosphere, which results in chromospheric heating. The mechanisms that transport energy to the lower solar atmosphere during a flare are still not fully understood. Aims. We aim to estimate the temporal evolution of the radiative losses in the chromosphere at the footpoints of a C-class flare, in order to set observational constraints on the electron beam parameters of a RADYN flare simulation. Methods. We estimated the radiative losses from hydrogen, and singly ionized Ca and Mg using semiempirical model atmospheres, which were inferred from a multiline inversion of observed Stokes profiles obtained with the CRISP and CHROMIS instruments on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. The radiative losses were computed taking into account the effect of partial redistribution and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium. To estimate the integrated radiative losses in the chromosphere, the net cooling rates were integrated between the temperature minimum and the height where the temperature reaches 10 kK. We also compared our time series of radiative losses with those from the RADYN flare simulations. Results. We obtained a high spatial-resolution map of integrated radiative losses around the flare peak time. The stratification of the net cooling rate suggests that the Ca IR triplet lines are responsible for most of the radiative losses in the flaring atmosphere. During the flare peak time, the contribution from Ca II H and K and Mgii h and k lines are strong and comparable to the Ca IR triplet (~32kW m(exp -2)). Since our flare is a relatively weak event, the chromosphere is not heated above 11 kK, which in turn yields a subdued Lyα contribution (~7kW m(exp -2)) in the selected limits of the chromosphere. The temporal evolution of total integrated radiative losses exhibits sharply rising losses (0.4kW m(exp -2) (s(exp -1)) and a relatively slow decay (0.23kW m(exp -2) s(exp -1)). The maximum value of total radiative losses is reached around the flare peak time and can go up to 175kWm􀀀2 for a single pixel located at footpoint. After a small parameter study, we find the best model-data consistency in terms of the amplitude of radiative losses and the overall atmospheric structure with a RADYN flare simulation in the injected energy flux of 5 × 10(exp 10) erg s(exp -1) cm(exp -2).

Chromosphere↗

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗

Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-dominated Watersheds using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model: Datasets, code, models files

This model-data archive is for a modeling study focused on the effects of artificial drainage on agriculture-dominated watersheds using a fully distributed integrated hydrology model. This study introduced a novel strategy to represent the effects of tile drains and agricultural ditches in a fully distributed basin-scale integrated hydrology model. The numerical experiments in this study reveal the effects of surface and subsurface drainage on various hydrological states and fluxes. The details about the datasets can be found in the "readme" document attached with the dataset.

Agricultural Watersheds↗

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Comparing Ionospheric Models with Poynting Flux from DMSP Observations

As part to the GEM-CEDAR challenge we are extending the model-data comparisons to electrodynamic in-situ measurements in low-Earth orbit. We use DMSP observations of electric and magnetic fields to compute Poynting Flux values along the satellite track in high latitudes including the auroral zones and the polar cap. Models of the ionosphere that include electrodynamic parameters have been run for five events selected for the GEM-CEDAR modeling challenge for which DMSP data are available for comparison. Combined with a magnetic field model we use the modeled electric fields to compute Poynting Flux and Joule Dissipation values from outputs of CTIPe, TIE-GCM, the ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of the SWMF, LFM and OpenGGCM magnetosphere-ionosphere coupled models, and the Weimer electric field model. The online metrics analysis tool at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has been updated to handle the analysis of separate short segments of available data (high-latitude sections of the satellite orbit) with model outputs to analyze how well auroral patterns are being reproduced by the models. We present initial results from the new analysis tool in terms of model yields (ratio of the difference between maximum and minimum values of model results to the observation), timing/location errors of local maxima in the inbound and outbound auroral crossings as well as cross-correlations for individual passes. We collect the information for many DMSP passes and present an analysis for model performance during quiet and geomagnetically disturbed time periods using half-orbit integrated values as well.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Dynamics Over the Above Domain: an Integrated Analysis Using Aircraft Observations (Arctic-CA) and Model Simulations (GEOS)

The Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project conducted six airborne surveys of Alaska and northwestern Canada between April and November 2017 to capture the spatial and temporal gradients of northern high-latitude carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) as part of NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). The Arctic-CAP sampling strategy involved acquiring vertical profiles of CO2, CH4 and CO from the surface to 5 km altitude at 25 sites around the ABoVE domain on a 4- to 6-week time interval. We observed vertical gradients of CO2, CH4 and CO that vary by eco-region and duration of the sampling period, which spanned the majority of the seasonal cycle. All Arctic-CAP measurements were compared to a global simulation using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system. Comparisons with GEOS simulations of atmospheric CO2, CH4 and CO highlight the potential of these multi-species observations to inform improvements in surface flux estimates and the representation of atmospheric transport. GEOS simulations provide estimates of the near surface average CO2 and CH4 enhancements that are well correlated with aircraft observations (R=0.74 and R=0.60 respectively), suggesting that GEOS has reasonable fidelity over this complex and heterogeneous region. This model-data comparison over the ABoVE domain reveals that while current state-of-the-art models and flux estimates are able to capture broadscale spatial and temporal patterns in near-surface CO2 and CH4 concentrations, more work is needed to resolve fine-scale flux features that are observed. The study also provides a framework for benchmarking a global model at regional scales, which is needed to use climate models as tools to investigate high-latitude carbon-climate feedbacks.

C Sweeney↗