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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Closing the loop: model-predictive control for a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

This article presents a model-predictive controller (MPC) for the maximization of the energy efficiency of a closed-circuit desalination reverse osmosis (CCRO) system. CCRO is a process for producing drinking water that is based on a cyclic operation with the following two phases: (a) filtration and (b) drain. In this article, we test model predictive control for optimal control of this process. The most important features of our approach are as follows: (a) the selection of a model structure that enables reliable forecasts of the filtration phase (up to 3 h), (b) an on-line model calibration strategy that ensures model forecast reliability, and (c) the satisfaction of equipment safety and operational constraints on the selected setpoints. We challenge this through deliberate introduction of changes in the unmeasured feed concentration and the applied constraints. Our results indicate that frequent model parameter updates are critical to maintain model reliability for MPC purposes. In addition, we illustrate that parameter identifiability is not guaranteed and that deliberate variation in flow rates is necessary even though the process never operates in steady state. Finally, MPC can compute flow rate setpoints that maximize the energy efficiency of the CCRO process while satisfying the applicable equipment and safety constraints.

closed-circuit reverse osmosis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prime Time for Model-Predictive Control? Assessing the Technical and Market Readiness of Advanced Controls in Buildings

Despite three decades of extensive research and field testing that have consistently validated the benefits of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in building applications, the technology has seen limited market adoption. This paper evaluates the readiness of MPC for widespread deployment, showcases recent demonstrations and field tests across diverse building types, including residential, small commercial, large commercial, and campus settings. Our results demonstrate that MPC can optimize system operations to achieve load shifting, minimize curtailment of on-site generation, and reduce energy costs by up to 80 %, while maintaining or improving occupant comfort. We also show that MPC can effectively control large assets, such as MW-sized thermal storage systems, and respond to dynamic pricing signals. However, achieving scale remains difficult due to labor-intensive workflows, reliance on a “PhD-in-the-loop” for MPC design and maintenance, susceptibility to fragile data infrastructure, and persistent workforce education and acceptance barriers. To bridge this gap, we outline a transition from bespoke, labor intensive prototypes toward streamlined, segment-targeted deployment strategies that leverage model templates, semantic tools, and generative AI. By automating control configuration and reducing engineering effort, these recommendations provide a pathway for transforming successful research demonstrations into scalable, market ready solutions for MPC-based controls.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗
DOE OSTI2025

Current state and future projections of drying processes in the US food and pulp and paper sectors: Energy, economic, and environmental assessment

The pulp and paper (P/P) and food sectors are the third- and fifth-largest industrial energy consumers in the United States, with total on-site energy consumption of 2,039 TBtu and 1,144 TBtu, respectively. Thermal drying processes for moisture removal, which are energy-intensive, play a critical role in both industries. This study is the first to evaluate state- and national-level US drying energy demand for these sectors from 2020 to 2050. To complete this evaluation, we developed a thermodynamic modeling framework integrated with economic and environmental models to compute product-specific drying energy intensity and estimate the sector-specific costs and emissions profiles associated with drying operations. The model-predicted energy intensity was validated against the literature. Using current and projected annual production volumes in these sectors, we estimated total drying energy use. Results indicate that drying accounts for 22 % of total energy consumption in the P/P sector and 10 % in the food sector. The estimated annual energy cost (2020) to operate thermal dryers is $\$$919 M in the P/P sector and $\$$417 M in the food sector. Additionally, drying contributes to 25 % of total CO 2 e emissions in the P/P sector (including biogenic) and 15 % of emissions in the food sector. Regional performance shows that the Southern US is the leading energy consumer for P/P drying, whereas the Midwest leads in food drying. This study presents both potential solutions to enhance drying efficiency and barriers to implementation. Energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon fuels, and electrification are discussed as key pathways for reducing costs and optimizing industrial drying processes.

3E analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meshfree simulation and prediction of recrystallized grain size in friction stir processed 316L stainless steel

Friction stir processing (FSP) is a promising solid-phase microstructural modification technique that can repair and enhance damaged stainless steel surfaces exposed to harsh environments. The quality of the repaired material is closely correlated to the recrystallized grain size in the stir zone (SZ), which is influenced by the thermomechanical conditions dictated by FSP process parameters. Thus, establishing a reliable relationship between these parameters and recrystallized grain size in the SZ is crucial for optimizing repair quality. However, existing experimental approaches often rely on indirect temperatures measured far from the SZ, along with rough strain rate estimations, which are imprecise and time-consuming. Meanwhile, existing mesh-based modeling methods usually face numerical challenges when dealing with the large material deformations inherent in FSP. Here, to address these issues, this study introduces a meshfree process model for FSP based on the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method, aimed at predicting process conditions under different parameters. The model is validated using experimental data from 11 combinations of tool traverse and rotation speeds on 316 L stainless steel. Correlations between process parameters, material flow, temperature, strain, strain rate, and recrystallized grain size are revealed through SPH simulations and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) imaging. The results show that in situ SZ temperatures range from 1071 to 1322°C, which exceed the tool temperature by over 300°C. Furthermore, SZ temperature, strain rate, and grain size increase monotonically with higher tool temperature and faster traverse speed. A relationship is then established between the model-predicted Zener-Hollomon parameter and the recrystallized grain size based on EBSD data, expressed as ln(d) = -0.364 ln(Z) + 14.673. Finally, this relationship exhibits satisfactory accuracy with errors of less than 26.9% in predicting grain sizes at various SZ locations, which offers valuable insights for optimizing FSP repair processes for 316 L stainless steel.

316L stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical and experimental analysis of mechanically induced failure in electric vehicle battery modules

Mitigating thermal runaway and cell-to-cell propagation is essential for improving the safety of electric and hybrid vehicles. Enhancing digital twin capabilities to predict battery mechanical abuse is particularly critical for automotive and aerospace applications, where crashworthiness is a key concern. Understanding failure conditions and propagation in battery modules during mechanical abuse is complex due to interactions between structural deformation, heat transfer, electrochemical processes, exothermic reactions and mechanical fracture. While prior studies have focused on modeling cell-level behavior, extending these models to module or pack level is necessary for a system level understating of electric vehicle safety. This study develops coupled large deformation finite element models that simultaneously solve for electrochemistry, material failure, internal short circuit and thermal runaway propagation. The models account for mechanical and thermal interactions between lithium-ion cells and other battery components while the contact interfaces are evolving with time. Model-predicted voltage, temperature and force responses are compared with experimental data for validation. The results demonstrate that the approach captures key failure mechanisms, including thermal propagation through heat transfer, electrical propagation from short circuits in parallel-connected cells, and mechanical propagation via penetration and crack formation. These findings show that computational models are valuable tools for understanding battery module failure and providing insight that can reduce the need for extensive experimental testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating Electric Field-Induced Rate Promotion of Brønsted Acid-Catalyzed Alcohol Dehydration

Applied potentials have been demonstrated as a powerful tool to promote heterogeneous Brønsted acid catalysis by orders of magnitude, leveraging interfacial electric fields to stabilize protonated intermediates. However, the use of flat two-dimensional electrodes with inherently low active site densities limits the application of conventional thermochemical characterization techniques that can probe the nature of catalytic active sites. Here, we use kinetic analyses with an electrostatics-based model to elucidate the intricacies of potential-induced rate promotion, employing liquid-phase dehydration of 1-methylcyclopentanol catalyzed by carboxylic acid groups on carbon nanotubes as a probe system. By using a basket electrode to directly polarize catalyst powder, we demonstrate that thermocatalytic reaction rates can be promoted by 100,000-fold, exhibiting a log–linear dependence on applied potential with rate-potential scalings as high as 125 ± 4 mV per 10-fold rate increase. In agreement with model predictions, we show that lower ionic strengths attenuate potential sensitivity, resulting from a weakening of the interfacial electric field that interacts with the acidic proton. Furthermore, we experimentally confirm the model-predicted “isokinetic potential” (at ∼0.6 V vs Ag/AgCl)─the potential at which all rate scaling lines at various ionic strengths intersect, making the rate independent of ionic strength. Base titrations reveal that only ∼8% of the carboxylic acid sites are catalytically active, yet these same active sites are operational at the highest and lowest potentials. Collectively, our results provide a key methodology for modeling catalytic effects of electric fields, quantifying active sites under applied potential, and demonstrating fundamental principles of electric field-induced rate promotion.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data

The radiative effects of wildfires have been traditionally estimated by models using radiative transfer calculations. Assessment of model-predicted radiative effects commonly involves information on observation-based aerosol optical properties. However, lack or incompleteness of this information for dense plumes generated by intense wildfires reduces substantially the applicability of this assessment. Here we introduce a novel method that provides additional observational constraints for such assessments using widely available ground-based measurements of shortwave and spectrally resolved irradiances and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges. We apply our method to quantify the radiative impact of the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in the Western US in September 2020. For our quantification we use integrated ground-based data collected at the Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory in Richland, Washington, USA with a location frequently downwind of wildfires in the Western US. We demonstrate that remarkably dense plumes generated by these wildfires strongly reduced the solar surface irradiance (up to 70% or 450 Wm -2 for total shortwave flux) and almost completely masked the sun from view due to extremely large AOD (above 10 at 500 nm wavelength). We also demonstrate that the plume-induced radiative impact is comparable in magnitude with those produced by a violent volcano eruption occurred in the Western US in 1980 and continental cumuli.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Yield from Iowa’s first commercial miscanthus fields: implications of spatial variability for productivity and sustainability beyond research plots

This dataset contains biomass yield measurements and associated vegetation index data collected from commercial Miscanthus × giganteus fields in eastern Iowa during the 2022–2023 growing seasons. The data support the analyses presented in the article: “Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots.” We collected 105 ground-truth biomass samples from four mature commercial fields (>4 years old) covering 92.81 ha. Samples were taken from 3 m² quadrats that were hand-harvested in alignment with commercial harvest timing. Stem biomass (excluding leaves) was weighed, moisture-corrected, and converted to dry-matter yield expressed in Mg DM ha⁻¹. Sampling locations were selected to capture spatial variability visible in aerial imagery and were recorded using RTK GPS. Each biomass observation was paired with vegetation indices derived from high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery (3 m resolution). Images were acquired throughout the growing season, and indices were calculated to evaluate their ability to predict end-of-season biomass yield. Statistical and machine learning approaches were used to identify key predictors, and a linear regression model based on end-of-July Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) was developed and evaluated. This repository includes the data used in that modeling workflow. Management practices, economic data, full imagery time series, and additional methodological details are described in the associated publication and are not included here. The dataset consists of three comma-separated value (CSV) files: 1. Combine_Groundtruth_Yield_VI_22_23.csv This file contains ground-truth biomass yield measurements and associated key vegetation index values collected during the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons. Rows: 105 observations Columns: Year — Year of observation (2022 or 2023) Field — Field location identifier Sample_number — Unique sample identifier GNDVI_End_Jul — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of July GNDVI_End_Aug — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of August NDRE_End_Aug — Normalized Difference Red Edge index calculated at end of August Biomass_Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (megagrams dry matter per hectare) 2. trainData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the subset of observations used to train the predictive relationship between July GNDVI and biomass yield. Rows: 76 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Observed stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) 3. testData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the test dataset used to evaluate model performance. Rows: 29 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Predicted_Yield_MgDM/ha — Model-predicted stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) Observed_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹)

Potential yield, yield gap, in-field management, y↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Modeling of Nanoparticle Precipitation in Oxide Dispersion-Strengthened Steels Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) enables the efficient production of near-net-shape oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys, which possess superior mechanical properties due to oxide nanoparticles (e.g., yttrium oxide, Y-O, and yttrium-titanium oxide, Y-Ti-O) embedded in the alloy matrix. To better understand the precipitation mechanisms of the oxide nanoparticles and predict their size distribution under LPBF conditions, we developed an innovative physics-based multiscale modeling strategy that incorporates multiple computational approaches. These include a finite volume method model (Flow3D) to analyze the temperature field and cooling rate of the melt pool during the LPBF process, a density functional theory model to calculate the binding energy of Y-O particles and the temperature-dependent diffusivities of Y and O in molten 316L stainless steel (SS), and a cluster dynamics model to evaluate the kinetic evolution and size distribution of Y-O nanoparticles in as-fabricated 316L SS ODS alloys. The model-predicted particle sizes exhibit good agreement with experimental measurements across various LPBF process parameters, i.e., laser power (110–220 W) and scanning speed (150–900 mm/s), demonstrating the reliability and predictive power of the modeling approach. The multiscale approach can be used to guide the future design of experimental process parameters to control oxide nanoparticle characteristics in LPBF-manufactured ODS alloys. Additionally, our approach introduces a novel strategy for understanding and modeling the thermodynamics and kinetics of precipitation in high-temperature systems, particularly molten alloys.

Wang, Zhengming (ORCID:0000000241627112)↗
NASA NTRS1976

A complete model of turbulence

A set of constitutive equations suitable for a priori computation of turbulent shear flows has been developed. Since no properties of a given turbulent flow need be known in advance in order to obtain a solution, the equations comprise a complete model of turbulence. Perturbation analysis shows that the model predicts a composite five-layer structure for an incompressible turbulent boundary layer, viz, a defect layer, a law-of-the-wall layer, a viscous sublayer, a near-surface roughness layer, and a viscous superlayer at the boundary-layer edge. Analysis of the defect layer demonstrates the key improvement of the model over its predecessor, the Saffman-Wilcox two-equation model of turbulence. Examination of model-predicted sublayer structure yields model-parameter boundary conditions appropriate for surfaces with roughness and mass injection. Results of numerical computations of compressible and incompressible equilibrium boundary layers show that, for such flows, the model is as accurate as mixing-length theory. Applications to transitional boundary layers and to nonequilibrium relaxation of a boundary layer passing from a rough to a smooth surface indicate that the model's applicability extends far beyond that of mixing-length theory's.

Wilcox, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Segal, M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Coefficient of restitution for low velocity transverse impact of thin graphite-epoxy laminates

A simple model is presented for the low velocity impact behavior of thin plates composed of T300/5208 graphite/epoxy. The model, which is constructed on the assumption that the plate is inextensible in the fiber direction and that the material is incompressible in the z direction, is able to predict the energy absorbed by the target during an impact event, or the 'coefficient of restitution'. The plate essentially deforms by shear, allowing the model to neglect bending deformations. The coefficient of restitution is predicted to increase with large interlaminar shear strength and low transverse shear modulus of the laminate. The coefficient's experimentally measured values agree with model-predicted values within a reasonable error.

Lal, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The necessity for a new parameterization of an empirical model for wind/ocean scatterometry

Difficulties related to the paucity of weather observation data regarding oceans were potentially alleviated for three summer months in 1978 when NASA's Seasat telemetered data from three wind-measuring instruments. The present study is concerned with one of these instruments, the Seasat A Scatterometer System (SASS). Attention is given to an internal consistency check of the SASS 1 model, comparisons of SASS 1 and other model-predicted winds with in situ winds, and a brief summary of the principal findings. It is found that a new wind retrieval system is required if SASS wind data are to be globally applicable and, at the same time, are to meet the required performance specifications. The sum-of-squares (SOS) technique for inverting SASS NRCS (normalized radar cross section) measurements results in the discarding of valuable data in low-speed areas and for higher incidence angles.

Woiceshyn, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Short range forecasting of sea breeze generated thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center: A real-time experiment using a primitive equation mesoscale numerical model

The operational efficiency of using guidance from a mesoscale numerical model to improve sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts at and around the Shuttle landing strip was assessed. The Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) model, developed as a sea breeze model, reveals a strong correlation between regions of mesoscale convergence and the triggering of sea breeze convection thunderstorms. The P3DM was modified to generate stability parameters familiar to the operational forecaster. In addition to the mesoscale fields of wind, vertical motion, moisture, temperature, a stability indicator, a combination of model-predicted K and Lifted Indices and the maximum grid cell vertical motion, were proposed and tested. Results of blind tests indicate that a forecaster, provided with guidance derived from model output, could improve local thunderstorm forecasts.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Diurnal variation of marine stratocumulus over San Nicolas Island during July 1987

A study is presented of surface measurements made at San Nicolas Island during the intensive field observation marine stratocumulus phase of the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program Regional Experiment, July 1987, to retrieve the average diurnal variation of marine stratocumulus and associated surface variables. The diurnal behavior of the cloud base appears to be consistent with model-predicted uncoupling of the cloud layer and the subcloud layer as the turbulent flux of moisture is limited by solar heating close to the cloud base. Also, variation in surface air temperature is consistent with the limitation of the turbulent flux of heat between the two layers, screening the surface from the effect of longwave cooling from the cloud top.

Blaskovic, Miriam↗
NASA NTRS1992

The present state and the future direction of eddy viscosity models

Information is given in viewgraph form on the present state and future direction of eddy viscosity models. Topics covered include the eddy viscosity dilemma, two-equation models, equations of motion, free shear flows, incompressible free shear flows, model-predicted boundary layer structure, defect layer analysis, the effects of pressure gradients, viscous sublayer structure, wall functions and viscous damping, viscous damping for kappa-omega, the effects of compressibility, perturbation analysis of the wall layer, an alternative compressibility term, unsteady boundary layers, incompressible separation, backstep results, and compressible separation.

Wilcox, David C.↗