Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “modeling and performance analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representations and strategies for transferable machine learning improve model performance in chemical discovery

Strategies for machine-learning (ML)-accelerated discovery that are general across material composition spaces are essential, but demonstrations of ML have been primarily limited to narrow composition variations. By addressing the scarcity of data in promising regions of chemical space for challenging targets such as open-shell transition-metal complexes, general representations and transferable ML models that leverage known relationships in existing data will accelerate discovery. Over a large set (~1000) of isovalent transition-metal complexes, we quantify evident relationships for different properties (i.e., spin-splitting and ligand dissociation) between rows of the Periodic Table (i.e., 3d/4d metals and 2p/3p ligands). We demonstrate an extension to the graph-based revised autocorrelation (RAC) representation (i.e., eRAC) that incorporates the group number alongside the nuclear charge heuristic that otherwise overestimates dissimilarity of isovalent complexes. To address the common challenge of discovery in a new space where data are limited, we introduce a transfer learning approach in which we seed models trained on a large amount of data from one row of the Periodic Table with a small number of data points from the additional row. We demonstrate the synergistic value of the eRACs alongside this transfer learning strategy to consistently improve model performance. Analysis of these models highlights how the approach succeeds by reordering the distances between complexes to be more consistent with the Periodic Table, a property we expect to be broadly useful for other material domains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and analysis of CXL performance models for tightly-coupled heterogeneous computing

Truly heterogeneous systems enable partitioned workloads to be mapped to the hardware that nets the best performance. However, current practice requires that inter-device communication between different vendors' hardware use host memory as an intermediary step. To date, there are no widely adopted solutions that allow accelerators to directly transfer data. A new cache-coherent protocol, CXL, aims to facilitate easier, fine-grained sharing between accelerators. In this work we analyze existing methods for designing heterogeneous applications that target GPUs and FPGAs working collaboratively, followed by an exploration to show the benefits of a CXL-enabled system. Specifically, we develop a test application that utilizes both an NVIDIA P100 GPU and a Xilinx U250 FPGA to show current communication limitations. From this application, we capture overall execution time and throughput measurements on the FPGA and GPU. We use these measurements as inputs to novel CXL performance models to show that using CXL caching instead of host memory results in a 1.31X speedup, while a more tightly-coupled pipelined implementation using CXL-enabled hardware would result in a speedup of 1.45X.

Cabrera, Anthony↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling, Performance Assessment, and Nodal Data Analysis of TRISO-Fueled Systems with Shift

This technical report documents several enhancements to the Shift Monte Carlo (MC) code under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in fiscal year (FY) 2022. Performance enhancements were added to Shift specifically for tristructural isotropic (TRISO)–fueled reactor systems and guided based on performance analysis in FY 2021. For the pebble performance model developed in previous studies, the runtime improved by ~ 91× compared to the original model and ~ 2× compared to the user-optimized model. Compared to Serpent, Shift is ~ 3× slower if Serpent delta-tracking is enabled but ~ 2× faster when delta-tracking is disabled. The multigroup cross section generation was improved through simplifying tally input definitions, porting several post-processing tally operations from Python scripts into the Shift code base, and accounting for production reactions in the scattering multiplicity. Progress was also made on two emerging capabilities: (1) the development of Titan (a Shift reactor physics user interface) and (2) initial investigation into path-length tallies for computing multigroup scattering matrices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Framework for Groundwater Monitoring Using DWT with LSTM and Transformers

Environmental monitoring is critical for safeguarding public health and ecological well-being. Traditional data structuring and workflow monitoring methods consume significant time and effort, hindering timely insights and effective decision-making. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting an AI framework that automates data cleaning, structuring, and modeling processes, specifically targeting applications in groundwater monitoring. By leveraging automation for data processing and model training, our framework establishes a novel and efficient paradigm for environmental monitoring, with its potential application to the vast network of over a hundred Department of Energy Environmental Management (DoE-EM) cleanup sites across the country. It analyzes data streams from a network of groundwater Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors deployed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for prediction modeling. This allows human experts to focus on analysis and decision-making, ultimately leading to better environmental outcomes.The framework employs multivariate time-series forecasting methods to study and model the behavior of varying chemical analytes. The continuous learning process is enabled by utilizing deep learning techniques. It allows the framework to become more nuanced in its analysis over time, adapting to the specific characteristics of the environmental site and the evolving nature of contaminant behavior. Deep learning models known for sequence modeling, LSTM, and Transformers are employed for time series forecasting. Data processing and structuring are essential components significantly impacting the final model's performance. This hypothesis was proven by presenting a comparative analysis of model performance with processed and unprocessed data. The feature engineering approach utilized was the Discrete Wavelet Transform, which works well with time series data.

Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance Modeling of Tandem Photovoltaics: A Yearlong Outdoor Degradation Analysis of a Ga⁢As//Si Minimodule

We present a performance modeling and degradation analysis framework for tandem photovoltaic modules, building upon established procedures for crystalline silicon devices and adapting them to account for the spectral sensitivity of multijunction technologies. The methodology employs filter criteria to select outdoor measurements close to standard test conditions (STC) under stable spectral and ambient conditions, followed by normalization of power production data with corrections for temperature, irradiance, and precipitable water vapor. We demonstrate this framework using a mechanically stacked four-terminal gallium arsenide (Ga⁢As) // silicon (Si) tandem solar minimodule deployed outdoors from October 2019 to January 2021 in Golden, Colorado, USA. We determined degradation rates of −4.1 ±0.2%/year for the Ga⁢As subcell and −2.5 ±0.9%/year for the Si subcell, with analysis of individual performance metrics indicating that packaging degradation, particularly delamination, was the dominant failure mode. Simulations using PVcircuit, an open-source equivalent-circuit solver, confirmed these findings. The presented methodology provides a reproducible foundation for performance modeling and degradation analysis of emerging tandem technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Educating HPC Users in the use of advanced computing technology

We examine a multi-modal approach to educating and training users of an advanced computing technology testbed at the Institute for Advanced Computational Science at Stony Brook University. Ookami provides researchers worldwide with access to 176 Fujitsu A64FX compute nodes, this being the same processor technology powering the Japanese Fugaku supercomputer, the fastest computer in the world since June 2020. However, achieving high-performance on this Arm-based, leadership computing technology requires that users be familiar with details of computer architecture, performance analysis and modeling, and high-performance programming models that are commonly omitted in introductory programming courses. Indeed, regardless of their seniority, many of the testbed users are surprisingly unfamiliar with basic concepts such as vectorization, pipelining, latency/bandwidth, roofline models, computing energy/power, threads, and non-uniform memory access. These same concepts also pervade mainstream x86 technologies, so this is of widespread concern. Due to the national/global nature of our user community that is also very diverse in both discipline and experience, the inability to offer formal classes, and our experience that most people do not tend to read online documentation or training materials in sufficient depth, we have consciously employed multiple approaches that heavily emphasize (online) personal interactions and transfer of skills. Online documentation has been organized around best-practices and FAQs; twice-weekly hackathons and office hours via Zoom enable deep dives by both the team and the user community with multiple broad benefits; a Slack channel provides both real time and archived answers and discussions; and workshops, training and webinars target community needs as they arise. Furthermore, the perspective that these tools are being used in an educational setting rather than just for project communication makes them more effective and contributes to community success.

A64FX↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Performance Metrics and their Application to the Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

High-quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMUs, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. In this approach, the quality of a model is analyzed by visually comparing measured generator response with the model-based simulated response for large system disturbances. This paper proposes a new set of performance metrics to assess the model validation results to facilitate automation of the model validation process. In the proposed methodology, first, the slow governor response and comparatively faster oscillatory response are separated, and then a separate set of performance metrics is calculated for each of these two components. These proposed metrics quantify the mismatch between the actual and model-based response in a comprehensive manner without missing any information enabling automation of the process. Furthermore, in this paper, we are also proposing that the sensitivity analysis for model calibration be performed with respect to the proposed metrics for the systematic identification of key parameters. In this work, results obtained using both simulated and real-world case-studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics for model validation and their application to the sensitivity analysis for model calibration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Model for High Temperature Oxidation of Cr–Ni Austenitic Steels Assisted by Spallation

Abstract Cr–Ni austenitic steels offer significant high temperature corrosion protection by forming a surface oxide layer. However, above critical service conditions (temperature, atmosphere, thermal cycling), oxidized surface can experience intensive degradation because of scale spallation, which could be detrimental to the in-service life. To predict the effect of scale spallation on oxidation kinetics, a simulation was implemented using a stochastic model. The model considers topological parameters and intensity of spallation which can occur, while delivering a true oxidation constant. The experimental procedure identified the amount of formed spalled scale and topology of spallation based on the use of element mapping of the surface. This information was used to determine a true kinetic constant for a corresponding spallation intensity in oxidized Cr–Ni austenitic steel. To illustrate the capability of the stochastic model, a parametric analysis was performed. The model verified how the spallation parameters could change the oxidation processes from parabolic growth of an adhered oxide layer without spallation to a mixed linear-parabolic, or with a constant thickness of residual scale at high spallation intensity. The spallation model will be used in a separate article to characterize high temperature surface degradation of several Cr–Ni austenitic steels during harsh oxidation environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modelling and analysis of nuclear reactor system coupled with a liquid metal battery

Traditionally, nuclear power plants in the U.S. provide baseload power to the power grid because they have less flexibility for ramping their output power than natural gas peaking plants. However, achieving climate goals to reduce the consumption of fossil‐based natural gas places pressure on nuclear power plants and other power generators to ramp up their power output to balance grid generation with demand. This paper presents the modelling and performance analysis of a nuclear reactor system (NRS) coupled to a liquid‐metal battery (LMB) to improve its dynamic response and enable its black start capability. The NRS and LMB thermal behaviour are modelled in Dymola, while the electrical dynamics of the LMB and power grid are modelled in RTDS‐RSCAD. Both simulation platforms are coupled and share their thermal and electrical data using a Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) communication protocol. The dynamic performance of the NRS‐LMB integration is tested on the IEEE 9 bus, which demonstrates its ability to respond and provide frequency and voltage regulation. The black start capability of the NRS‐LMB is also evaluated by simulating a grid outage and using the LMB to supply the auxiliary loads required to bring the NRS back online as soon as possible. The results show that coupling an NRS to an LMB improves the system dynamic performance and enables it to black start after being disconnected from the grid for several days.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.14) (Theory Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of Arrivals on Green at Signalized Intersections Using Stop-Bar Video Detection

Across the world, traffic congestion is increasing with alarming rapidity. Traffic signal control effectiveness, in coordinated networks, is often investigated in relation to the type of vehicle arrivals at the signalized intersections. Recently, several transportation agencies have switched from traditional loop detectors to video detection. When video cameras are accompanied by computer vision, one can extract more information about traffic “dynamics” than by using traditional inductive loop detectors. Collecting arrival times of multiple vehicles after the first arrival at the stop-bar detector might be challenging when using inductive loop detectors (since after the first arrival, detector status is always occupied). However, emerging video detection systems allow tracking of each vehicle’s entrance time in the detection zone, departure time from the detection zone, and the type of vehicle. This information can be used to estimate vehicular arrival and departure times, which then can be fed into machine learning algorithms to estimate arrivals on green (AOG). However, such research ideas have not been documented so far. Thus, this paper presents an estimation model for AOG, which was developed using multigene genetic programming. A robust experimental dataset was collected from a highly calibrated and validated microsimulation model of an 11-intersection corridor in Chattanooga, TN. The results of the model’s performance analysis showed the high accuracy of the training-, testing-, and validation datasets. The practical benefit of this model is that it can be applied to estimate arrival types at intersections where only stop-bar video detection exists.

Engineering↗