Biogeochemical dynamics underlying equilibrium between nitrogen fixation and denitrification and its impact on a coastal marine ecosystem model
Not provided.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “modeling marine ecosystem”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
A New Ecosystem Model for Arctic Phytoplankton Phenology From Ice‐Covered to Open‐Water Periods: Implications for Future Sea Ice Retreat Scenarios
Abstract To predict ecosystem change in the Arctic Ocean, understanding Arctic phytoplankton phenology is essential. We develop a marine ecosystem model focusing on phytoplankton dynamics and the competition for multiple resources based on knowledge from in situ data obtained in the Chukchi Sea. The model is designed to include the unique ecological characteristics of the Arctic Ocean. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model successfully simulating the current paradigm for Arctic phytoplankton phenology, including both under‐ice blooms and succession of phytoplankton groups. Sensitivity experiments show that the dominance of diatoms can be sustained by lateral transport of a high‐silicate water mass (Pacific Winter Water). Experiments for future scenarios show that sea ice retreat drives a decrease in large diatoms and an increase in the other relatively small non‐diatom groups. These results suggest that dominant phytoplankton groups can be shifted from diatoms to non‐diatoms under ongoing Arctic Ocean sea ice retreat.
Choi, Jang‐Geun↗
Simulating Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling With Multiple Plankton Functional Types
Current representations of marine ecosystems in Earth System Models are greatly simplified, neglecting key interactions between dynamic food webs, biogeochemistry, and climate change. We use the Marine Biogeochemistry Library code base within the Community Earth System Model 2.2.2 to create an expanded ecosystem model with eight phytoplankton groups and four zooplankton size classes (MARBL-8P4Z). Incorporating more specific plankton types and size classes has the potential to capture a wider range of possible behaviors of the ecosystem, its complex interactions with biogeochemistry, and its feedback to climate change. It also permits stronger observational constraints, including in situ group-specific biomass and various observational estimates of plankton community composition. MARBL-8P4Z broadly captures observed global-scale patterns in biomass and community composition for both phytoplankton and zooplankton, with a good performance in simulating broad biogeochemistry fields. The model shows comparable spatial patterns and magnitudes to the observed picophytoplankton biomass (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes), and captures the seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass. Picophytoplankton groups and microzooplankton dominate biomass and production in oligotrophic, subtropical regions, while nano-phytoplankton, diatoms and the larger zooplankton groups prevail at higher latitudes and within upwelling zones. The model simulates reasonable energy transfer efficiency through the food web, with tight linkages between the phytoplankton community composition, zooplankton grazing, and carbon export, with the potential to link to fisheries models. Thus, MARBL-8P4Z has the potential to account for key climate-driven ecological shifts in the plankton that will modify ocean biogeochemistry in the future.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL)
Abstract The Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) is a prognostic ocean biogeochemistry model that simulates marine ecosystem dynamics and the coupled cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, silicon, and oxygen. MARBL is a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM); it supports flexible ecosystem configuration of multiple phytoplankton and zooplankton functional types; it is also portable, designed to interface with multiple ocean circulation models. Here, we present scientific documentation of MARBL, describe its configuration in CESM2 experiments included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6), and evaluate its performance against a number of observational data sets. The model simulates present‐day air‐sea CO 2 flux and many aspects of the carbon cycle in good agreement with observations. However, the simulated integrated uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is weak, which we link to poor thermocline ventilation, a feature evident in simulated chlorofluorocarbon distributions. This also contributes to larger‐than‐observed oxygen minimum zones. Moreover, radiocarbon distributions show that the simulated circulation in the deep North Pacific is extremely sluggish, yielding extensive oxygen depletion and nutrient trapping at depth. Surface macronutrient biases are generally positive at low latitudes and negative at high latitudes. CESM2 simulates globally integrated net primary production (NPP) of 48 Pg C yr −1 and particulate export flux at 100 m of 7.1 Pg C yr −1 . The impacts of climate change include an increase in globally integrated NPP, but substantial declines in the North Atlantic. Particulate export is projected to decline globally, attributable to decreasing export efficiency associated with changes in phytoplankton community composition.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Resource Occurrence and Productivity in Existing and Proposed Wind Energy Lease Areas on the Northeast US Shelf
States in the Northeast United States have the ambitious goal of producing more than 22 GW of offshore wind energy in the coming decades. The infrastructure associated with offshore wind energy development is expected to modify marine habitats and potentially alter the ecosystem services. Species distribution models were constructed for a group of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa resident in the Northeast US Continental Shelf marine ecosystem. These models were analyzed to provide baseline context for impact assessment of lease areas in the Middle Atlantic Bight designated for renewable wind energy installations. Using random forest machine learning, models based on occurrence and biomass were constructed for 93 species providing seasonal depictions of their habitat distributions. We developed a scoring index to characterize lease area habitat use for each species. Subsequently, groups of species were identified that reflect varying levels of lease area habitat use ranging across high, moderate, low, and no reliance on the lease area habitats. Among the species with high to moderate reliance were black sea bass ( Centropristis striata ), summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus ), and Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ), which are important fisheries species in the region. Potential for impact was characterized by the number of species with habitat dependencies associated with lease areas and these varied with a number of continuous gradients. Habitats that support high biomass were distributed more to the northeast, while high occupancy habitats appeared to be further from the coast. There was no obvious effect of the size of the lease area on the importance of associated habitats. Model results indicated that physical drivers and lower trophic level indicators might strongly control the habitat distribution of ecologically and commercially important species in the wind lease areas. Therefore, physical and biological oceanography on the continental shelf proximate to wind energy infrastructure development should be monitored for changes in water column structure and the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the effects of these changes on the trophic system.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Drivers of Phytoplankton Variability in and Near the Pearl River Estuary, South China Sea During Typhoon Hato (2017): A Numerical Study
The Pearl River estuary-coastal system in the Northern South China Sea is frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Previous in-situ and remote sensing studies have found typhoons can enhance phytoplankton biomass and induce blooms in this region. However, the mechanistic links between phytoplankton blooms and typhoons have not been well elucidated due to the interplay of multiple processes along the land-ocean-atmosphere interfaces. Unravelling these interactions will have to rely on an integrated modelling system. In this work, we constructed a realistic, 3-dimensional, land-ocean-atmosphere modelling system with the marine ecosystem and sediment components for the China Great Bay Area. By using the integrated modelling system, we quantitatively investigated phytoplankton response to hydrological conditions variations under Typhoon Hato (2017), a strong typhoon case. Passive tracer experiments showed that with high river discharge induced by heavy rainfall, the residence time of Lingding Bay is as short as 15-day, less than half of that under the climatological discharge. The increase in freshwater pulse washed out the phytoplankton biomass within Lingding Bay. While for the offshore region, the source and sink terms analysis showed that the increase of phytoplankton biomass in the first week was because of the uplift of nutrient-rich subsurface water, while in the second week was because of the seaward propagated nearshore high phytoplankton biomass water. While riverine nutrients support phytoplankton growth in the third week, a large part of phytoplankton biomass was lost to zooplankton grazing, showing the system shifted from the bottom-up control to the top-down control.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production
We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production
The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying the Influence of Size, Shape, and Density of Microplastics on Their Transport Modes: A Modeling Approach
Microplastics (MPs) pose significant risks to marine ecosystems and human health, necessitating accurate predictions of their distributions in aquatic environments for effective risk mitigation. However, understanding MP transport dynamics is challenging because of the inadequate representation of MP characteristics such as size, shape, and density in numerical models. Further, the accuracy of the MP vertical profiles in existing models has not been thoroughly validated. Thus, we developed an MP transport model within the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model framework (FVCOM-MP) by integrating MP characteristics. We validated FVCOM-MP against experimental and analytical data, focusing on various MP transport modes and transitions. FVCOM-MP successfully replicates MP profiles in different transport modes, including the bedload, surface-load, suspended-load, and mixed-load modes. Additionally, we introduce phase diagrams for classifying MP transport modes based on particle characteristics, enhancing our understanding of MP dynamics in aquatic systems. The transport modes for a number of real-world MP particles, including fishing line, plastic bag/bottle fragments, synthetic fibers, tire wear particles, polyvinyl chloride and expanded polystyrene pellets, were analyzed with these phase diagrams.
Microplastic transport, Settling velocity, Rising ↗
A Growing Freshwater Lens in the Arctic Ocean With Sustained Climate Warming Disrupts Marine Ecosystem Function
One of the most robust changes in the hydrological cycle predicted by Earth System Models (ESMs) during the remainder of 21st century is an increase in the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E) in arctic and boreal regions. We explore the long-term consequences of this change for marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean using the Community Earth System Model forced with a business as usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. We find that by the year 2300 increases in freshwater delivery considerably reduce Arctic Ocean surface salinity, creating a freshwater lens that has far-reaching impacts on marine biogeochemistry. The expanding freshwater lens limits vertical nutrient supply into the euphotic zone by enhancing vertical stratification and accelerating surface lateral mixing with surface waters in the North Atlantic, which become increasingly nutrient depleted from weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The resulting increase in nutrient stress reduces marine export production in the Arctic Ocean by 53% in 2300 relative to the 1990s and triggers a shift in community composition with small phytoplankton replacing diatoms. At the same time, the seasonal timing of export production undergoes a 2-month forward shift, with the peak advancing from July to May. This suggests that the threat to food webs and higher trophic levels may intensify after the year 2100 as gains in productivity from sea ice loss saturate and freshwater impacts on nutrient stress continue to strengthen. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of changing terrestrial hydrology and land-ocean coupling as drivers of long-term biogeochemical change in the Arctic Ocean and the necessity of multi-century climate change projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A compendium of bacterial and archaeal single-cell amplified genomes from oxygen deficient marine waters
Oxygen-deficient marine waters referred to as oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) or anoxic marine zones (AMZs) are common oceanographic features. They host both cosmopolitan and endemic microorganisms adapted to low oxygen conditions. Microbial metabolic interactions within OMZs and AMZs drive coupled biogeochemical cycles resulting in nitrogen loss and climate active trace gas production and consumption. Global warming is causing oxygen-deficient waters to expand and intensify. Therefore, studies focused on microbial communities inhabiting oxygen-deficient regions are necessary to both monitor and model the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem functions and services. Here we present a compendium of 5,129 single-cell amplified genomes (SAGs) from marine environments encompassing representative OMZ and AMZ geochemical profiles. Of these, 3,570 SAGs have been sequenced to different levels of completion, providing a strain-resolved perspective on the genomic content and potential metabolic interactions within OMZ and AMZ microbiomes. Hierarchical clustering confirmed that samples from similar oxygen concentrations and geographic regions also had analogous taxonomic compositions, providing a coherent framework for comparative community analysis.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry
Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015
Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models
Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, -0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and -1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is -0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Middle to Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature and Productivity Changes in the Northeast Pacific
Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and primary productivity in the northeast Pacific have far‐reaching implications. In addition to influencing the regional and global temperature and hydroclimate, these conditions also control marine ecosystems and their services, which subsequently impact regional economies. Yet, our understanding of the variability and controls of northeast Pacific SST and productivity on timescales exceeding observational records remains limited. Here, we use marine sediment records from seven locations, spanning 25.2°N–59.6°N, in the northeast Pacific to characterize the millennial‐scale variability of SST and productivity from 9,000 to 1,000 years BP. We explore the dynamics of their spatiotemporal evolution and compare these data with transient climate model outputs to identify potential drivers. Through a heat budget analysis and optimal fingerprinting analysis, we characterize the spatial pattern of forcings. We find that SST varied spatially in the northeast Pacific, with higher latitudes exhibiting greater magnitude changes than lower latitudes, which differs from previous work suggesting regional synchronicity and coherence during the Holocene. Our analysis did not find evidence for coherent variability of primary producer community nor carbon export, highlighting the difficulty of identifying the complex interactions between environmental conditions, producers, and carbon export. Model‐proxy disagreement demonstrates the need for higher resolution model frameworks, but shows nonetheless that observed variability in the proxy records can be explained by a combination of greenhouse gas and orbital forcing. Here we suggest that the complex SST variations and marine ecosystem responses to forced changes are important factors that can drive disagreements in model projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Elucidation of trophic interactions in an unusual single-cell nitrogen-fixing symbiosis using metabolic modeling
Marine nitrogen-fixing microorganisms are an important source of fixed nitrogen in oceanic ecosystems. The colonial cyanobacterium Trichodesmium and diatom symbionts were thought to be the primary contributors to oceanic N 2 fixation until the discovery of the unusual uncultivated symbiotic cyanobacterium UCYN-A ( Candidatus Atelocyanobacterium thalassa ). UCYN-A has atypical metabolic characteristics lacking the oxygen-evolving photosystem II, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, the carbon-fixation enzyme RuBisCo and de novo biosynthetic pathways for a number of amino acids and nucleotides. Therefore, it is obligately symbiotic with its single-celled haptophyte algal host. UCYN-A receives fixed carbon from its host and returns fixed nitrogen, but further insights into this symbiosis are precluded by both UCYN-A and its host being uncultured. In order to investigate how this syntrophy is coordinated, we reconstructed bottom-up genome-scale metabolic models of UCYN-A and its algal partner to explore possible trophic scenarios, focusing on nitrogen fixation and biomass synthesis. Since both partners are uncultivated and only the genome sequence of UCYN-A is available, we used the phylogenetically related Chrysochromulina tobin as a proxy for the host. Through the use of flux balance analysis (FBA), we determined the minimal set of metabolites and biochemical functions that must be shared between the two organisms to ensure viability and growth. We quantitatively investigated the metabolic characteristics that facilitate daytime N 2 fixation in UCYN-A and possible oxygen-scavenging mechanisms needed to create an anaerobic environment to allow nitrogenase to function. This is the first application of an FBA framework to examine the tight metabolic coupling between uncultivated microbes in marine symbiotic communities and provides a roadmap for future efforts focusing on such specialized systems.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points
Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.
Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗