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At least 19 records

Dynamic modeling of vegetation change in arid lands

A general framework for a digital desertification monitoring system (DDMS) for assessing the worldwide desertification growth rate is presented. The system relies on the development of Landsat derived indicators to identify local processes signalling the growth of arid regions. A study area consisting of the eastern edge of the Niger River delta in Mali was used to characterize three indicators in terms of the covariance of the multispectral scanner (MSS) bands 2 and 4, the correlation of the two bands, and the percent variance expressed by the first eigenvalue. The scenes are imaged multitemporallly in a 400 x 400 pixel array to detect vegetation cover changes. Criteria were defined which characterized the decrease or increase of vegetation. It was determined that the correlation coefficients are the best indicators, and are easily computed.

Robinson, V. B.↗

NASA 1990 Multisensor Airborne Campaigns (MACs) for ecosystem and watershed studies

The Multisensor Airborne Campaign (MAC) focus within NASA's former Land Processes research program was conceived to achieve the following objectives: to acquire relatively complete, multisensor data sets for well-studied field sites, to add a strong remote sensing science component to ecology-, hydrology-, and geology-oriented field projects, to create a research environment that promotes strong interactions among scientists within the program, and to more efficiently utilize and compete for the NASA fleet of remote sensing aircraft. Four new MAC's were conducted in 1990: the Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) project along an east-west transect through central Oregon, the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics (FED) project at the Northern Experimental Forest in Howland, Maine, the MACHYDRO project in the Mahantango Creek watershed in central Pennsylvania, and the Walnut Gulch project near Tombstone, Arizona. The OTTER project is testing a model that estimates the major fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water through temperate coniferous forest ecosystems. The focus in the project is on short time-scale (days-year) variations in ecosystem function. The FED project is concerned with modeling vegetation changes of forest ecosystems using remotely sensed observations to extract biophysical properties of forest canopies. The focus in this project is on long time-scale (decades to millenia) changes in ecosystem structure. The MACHYDRO project is studying the role of soil moisture and its regulating effects on hydrologic processes. The focus of the study is to delineate soil moisture differences within a basin and their changes with respect to evapotranspiration, rainfall, and streamflow. The Walnut Gulch project is focused on the effects of soil moisture in the energy and water balance of arid and semiarid ecosystems and their feedbacks to the atmosphere via thermal forcing.

Wickland, Diane E.↗

On the Remote Impacts of Mid-Holocene Saharan Vegetation on South American Hydroclimate: A Modeling Intercomparison

Proxy reconstructions from the mid-Holocene (MH: 6,000 years ago) indicate an intensification of the West African Monsoon and a weakening of the South American Monsoon, primarily resulting from orbitally-driven insolation changes. However, model studies that account for MH orbital configurations and greenhouse gas concentrations can only partially reproduce these changes. Most model studies do not account for the remarkable vegetation changes that occurred during the MH, in particular over the Sahara, precluding realistic simulations of the period. Here, we study precipitation changes over northern Africa and South America using four fully coupled global climate models by accounting for the Saharan greening. Incorporating the Green Sahara amplifies orbitally-driven changes over both regions, and leads to an improvement in proxy-model agreement. Our work highlights the local and remote impacts of vegetation and the importance of considering vegetation changes in the Sahara when studying and modeling global climate.

Paleoclimate modeling↗

The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: Desertification

This is a general circulation model sensitivity study of the physical mechanisms of the effects of desertification on the Sahel drought. The model vegetation types were changed in the prescribed desertification area, which led to changes in the surface characteristics. The model was integrated for three months (June, July, August) with climatological surface conditions (control) and desertification conditions (anomaly) to examine the summer season response to the changed surface conditions. The control and anomaly experiments consisted of five pairs of integrations with different initial conditions and/or sea surface temperature boundary conditions. In the desertification experiment, the moisture flux convergence and rainfall were reduced in the test area and increased to the immediate south of this area. The simulated anomaly dipole pattern was similar to the observed African drought patterns in which the axis of the maximum rainfall shifts to the south. The circulation changes in the desertification experiment were consistent with those observed during sub-Saharan dry years. The tropical easterly jet was weaker and the African easterly jet was stronger than normal. Further, in agreement with the observations, the easterly wave disturbances were reduced in intensity but not in number. Descending motion dominated the desertification area. The surface energy budget and hydrological cycle were also changed substantially in the anomaly experiment.

Xue, Yongkang↗

Modeling Demographic-Driven Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Biogeochemical Cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth System Model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)

We developed a demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the modeling of vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies' ModelE Earth system model. This model includes the processes of plant growth, mortality, reproduction, vegetation structural dynamics, and soil carbon and nitrogen storage and transformations. The model combines the plant physiological processes of ModelE's original vegetation model, Ent, with the plant demographic and ecosystem nitrogen processes that have been represented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's LM3-PPA. We used nine plant functional types to represent global natural vegetation functional diversity, including trees, shrubs, and grasses, and a new phenology model to simulate vegetation seasonal changes with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Competition for light and soil resources is individual based, which makes the modeling of transient compositional dynamics and vegetation succession possible. Overall, the BiomeE model simulates, with fidelity comparable to other models, the dynamics of vegetation and soil biogeochemistry, including leaf area index, vegetation structure (e.g., height, tree density, size distribution, and crown organization), and ecosystem carbon and nitrogen storage and fluxes. This model allows ModelE to simulate transient and long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems. Furthermore, BiomeE also allows for the eco-evolutionary modeling of community assemblage in response to past and future climate changes with its individual-based competition and demographic processes.

Biogeochemical cycles↗

Modeling Snow Ablation over the Western United States Mountains: Patterns and Controlling Factors

When compared with differences in snow accumulation predicted by widely used hydrological models, there is a much greater divergence among otherwise “good” models in their simulation of the snow ablation process. Here, we explore differences in the performance of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP), the Catchment model, and the third-generation Simplified Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) in their ability to reproduce observed snow water equivalent (SWE) during the ablation season at 10 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations over 1992–2012. During the ablation period, net radiation generally has stronger correlations with observed melt rates than does air temperature. Average ablation rates tend to be higher (in both model predictions and observations) at stations with a large accumulation of SWE. The differences in the dates of last snow between models and observations range from several days to approximately a month (on average 5.1 days earlier than in observations). If the surface cover in the models is changed from observed vegetation to bare soil in all of the models, only the melt rate of the VIC model increases. The differences in responses of models to canopy removal are directly related to snowpack energy inputs, which are further affected by different algorithms for surface albedo and energy allocation across the models. We also find that the melt rates become higher in VIC and lower in Noah-MP if the shrub/grass present at the observation sites is switched to trees.

Snow↗

Process-Oriented Analysis of Dominant Sources of Uncertainty in the Land Carbon Sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Attribution↗

Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Estes, Maurice G.↗

Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI

The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-1990. Albedo decreased in the northern latitudes and increased in the tropics with increased ndvi. The increase in vegetation density revealed that the vegetation's physiological response was constrained by the limits of the available water resources. The difference between the maximum and minimum vegetation scenarios resulted in a 46% increase in absorbed visible solar radiation and a similar increase in gross photosynthetic C02 uptake on a global annual basis. This caused the canopy transpiration and interception fluxes to increase, and reduced those from the soil. The redistribution of the surface energy fluxes substantially reduced the Bowen ratio during the growing season, resulting in cooler and moister near-surface climate, except when soil moisture was limiting. Important effects of increased vegetation on climate are : (1) A cooling of about 1.8 K in the northern latitudes during the growing season and a slight warming during the winter, which is primarily due to the masking of high albedo of snow by a denser canopy. and (2) A year round cooling of 0.8 K in the tropics. These results suggest that increases in vegetation density could partially compensate for parallel increases in greenhouse warming . Increasing vegetation density globally caused both evapotranspiration and precipitation to increase. Evapotranspiration, however increased more than precipitation resulting in a global soil-water deficit of about 15 %. A spectral analysis on the simulated results showed that changes in the state of vegetation could affect the low-frequency modes of the precipitation distribution and might reduce its low frequency variability in the tropics while increasing it in northern latitudes.

Bounoua, L.↗

Influence of the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara on South American Climate

Paleoclimatic data from pollen, speleothem and sedimentary records indicate a weakening of the South American Monsoon in the mid-Holocene (MH: 6,000 years BP), which occurred coevally with the intensification of the West African Monsoon. The reduction in precipitation over South America is also simulated by various models which account for changes in orbital forcings and greenhouse gas concentrations between the present day and the mid-Holocene. However, most model studies do not account for vegetation changes, which precludes realistic simulations, especially due to the presence and far-afield impacts of the Green Sahara. In this study, we evaluate precipitation over South America during the mid-Holocene from four models, namely – EC-Earth 3.1, iCESM 1.2, CCSM4-Toronto and GISS Model E2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – an MHPMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as an MHGS (Green Sahara) scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. Incorporating the Green Sahara leads to an amplification of the drying signal over South America and brings it more in line with the proxy reconstructions. We also present a semi-quantitative assessment of the proxy-model agreement. Our work indicates that it is important to consider changes over northern Africa while studying South American climate of the mid-Holocene.

GISS-E2-1 model↗

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

NASA Discipline Number 60-40↗

Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation

New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.

Overpeck, Jonathan T.↗

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change andCO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

Arneth, A.↗

Structure and Parameter Uncertainty in Centennial Projections of Forest Community Structure and Carbon Cycling

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.

canopy radiative transfer↗

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗

Incorporating Plant Phenology Dynamics in a Biophysical Canopy Model

The Multi-Layer Canopy Model (MLCan) is a vegetation model created to capture plant responses to environmental change. Themodel vertically resolves carbon uptake, water vapor and energy exchange at each canopy level by coupling photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf energy balance. The model is forced by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, as well as near-surface meteorological conditions. The original formulation of MLCan utilized canopy structural traits derived from observations. This project aims to incorporate a plant phenology scheme within MLCan allowing these structural traits to vary dynamically. In the plant phenology scheme implemented here, plant growth is dependent on environmental conditions such as air temperature and soil moisture. The scheme includes functionality that models plant germination, growth, and senescence. These growth stages dictate the variation in six different vegetative carbon pools: storage, leaves, stem, coarse roots, fine roots, and reproductive. The magnitudes of these carbon pools determine land surface parameters such as leaf area index, canopy height, rooting depth and root water uptake capacity. Coupling this phenology scheme with MLCan allows for a more flexible representation of the structure and function of vegetation as it responds to changing environmental conditions.

environmental changes↗

Spectral Bio-indicator Simulations for Tracking Photosynthetic Activities in a Corn Field

Accurate assessment of vegetation canopy optical properties plays a critical role in monitoring natural and managed ecosystems under environmental changes. In this context, radiative transfer (RT) models simulating vegetation canopy reflectance have been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for understanding and estimating spectral bio-indicators. In this study, two narrow band spectroradiometers were utilized to acquire observations over corn canopies for two summers. These in situ spectral data were then used to validate a two-layer Markov chain-based canopy reflectance model for simulating the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been widely used in recent vegetation photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE) studies. The in situ PRI derived from narrow band hyperspectral reflectance exhibited clear responses to: 1) viewing geometry which affects the asset of light environment; and 2) seasonal variation corresponding to the growth stage. The RT model (ACRM) successfully simulated the responses to the variable viewing geometry. The best simulations were obtained when the model was set to run in the two layer mode using the sunlit leaves as the upper layer and shaded leaves as the lower layer. Simulated PRI values yielded much better correlations to in situ observations when the cornfield was dominated by green foliage during the early growth, vegetative and reproductive stages (r = 0.78 to 0.86) than in the later senescent stage (r = 0.65). Further sensitivity analyses were conducted to show the important influences of leaf area index (LAI) and the sunlit/shaded ratio on PRI observations.

Cheng, Yen-Ben↗

FluxSat: Long-term Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) for Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) based on satellite data calibrated with eddy covariance data

Gross primary production (GPP), the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) assimilated by plants through photosynthesis, is one of the most variable and uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Global GPP has been estimated with a number of process-based models, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), driven by observed environmental changes, are used for global carbon budget assessments and long-term (climate) prediction. Benchmarking these and other models globally with data-driven GPP estimates is critical for understanding the land sink and ensuring accurate forecasts of the carbon cycle. In addition, global data-driven GPP estimates are crucial for studies of interannual variability, including trends that are linked to mechanisms with large uncertainties, such as the indirect CO 2 fertilization effect related to greening. In response to a community need for a GPP data set that well captures spatio-temporal variability, we developed FluxSat, a data-driven approach that optimizes the use of satellite reflectance data from the NASA MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, calibrated using ground-based eddy covariance (EC) data. We are enhancing (spatially, higher resolution) and extending FluxSat (in time, with additional sensors) to create a high quality long term GPP Earth System Data Record (ESDR) for use in model benchmarking, carbon cycle modeling, and studies of trends and interannual variability. Our team’s objectives are to: 1. Update and document the current MODIS FluxSat GPP (daily, 0.05o and 0.5o resolutions) products with latest available MODIS and EC data sets; 2. Extend FluxSat GPP record forward in time with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on operational weather satellites going forward; 3. Extend FluxSat GPP record backward in time using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on weather satellites dating back to 1981; 4. Provide higher spatial resolution MODIS and VIIRS GPP (0.0083o). 5. Thoroughly evaluate all FluxSat products with independent data; and 6. Create a homogenized long-term GPP record spanning 40+ years. We will discuss plans for this long-term data set that is supported through the NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program.

gross Primary Production↗