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At least 19 records

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density

While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laboratory colonization by Dirofilaria immitis alters the microbiome of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Background: The ability of blood-feeding arthropods to successfully acquire and transmit pathogens of medical and veterinary importance has been shown to be interfered with, or enhanced by, the arthropod’s native microbiome. Mosquitoes transmit viruses, protozoan and filarial nematodes, the majority of which contribute to the 17% of infectious disease cases worldwide. Diroflaria immitis, a mosquito-transmitted filarial nematodes of dogs and cats, is vectored by several mosquito species including Aedes aegypti. Methods: In this study, we investigated the impact of D. immitis colonization on the microbiome of laboratory reared female Ae. aegypti. Metagenomic analysis of the V3–V4 variable region of the microbial 16S RNA gene was used for identification of the microbial differences down to species level. Results: We generated a total of 1068 OTUs representing 16 phyla, 181 genera and 271 bacterial species. Overall, in order of abundance, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria and Firmicutes were the most represented phylum with D. immitis-infected mosquitoes having more of Proteobacteria (71%) than uninfected mosquitoes (56.9%). An interesting finding in this study is the detection of Klebsiella oxytoca in relatively similar abundance in infected and uninfected mosquitoes, suggesting a possible endosymbiotic relationship, and has been previously shown to indirectly compete for nutrients with fungi on domestic housefly eggs and larvae. While D. immitis colonization has no effect on the overall species richness, we identified significant differences in the composition of selected bacterial genera and phyla between the two groups. We also reported distinct compositional and phylogenetic differences in the individual bacterial species when commonly identified bacteria were compared. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to understand the impact of a filarial infection on the microbiome of its mosquito vector. Further studies are required to identify bacteria species that could play an important role in the mosquito biology. While the microbiome composition of Ae. aegypti mosquito have been previously reported, our study shows that in an effort to establish itself, a filarial nematode modifies and alters the overall microbial diversity within its mosquito host.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas

Abstract Background Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. Methods We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus , Culex nigripalpus , Culex pipiens , Culex quinquefasciatus , Culex restuans , Culex salinarius , and Culex tarsalis . Results We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA. Conclusions Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change. Graphical abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mosquito Distribution and West Nile Virus Surveillance Results on the Nevada National Security Site in South Central Nevada

A 10-year study (2004-2013) was conducted to determine mosquito distribution and the prevalence of West Nile Virus (WNV) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in south central Nevada. Mosquito traps baited with dry ice were set overnight at sites where standing water provided potential breeding sites for mosquitoes. Captured mosquitoes were identified to species and tested for WNV. A total of 556 mosquitoes representing 6 species were captured and identified at 20 sites around the NNSS during 124 surveys. A vast majority (89%) of mosquitoes were Culex tarsalis. None of the mosquitoes tested were positive for WNV although 2 samples, both Culiseta inornata, were suspect for WNV in 2005 and 2006, both from Well 3 Pond. Additionally, 24 birds representing 5 species were opportunistically collected and tested for WNV with no positive results. Results from this study reveal patterns of mosquito distribution across the NNSS and suggest that NNSS workers have a very low risk of being exposed to WNV.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Bacteria-mediated dsRNA delivery for mosquito-borne virus control

Mosquito-borne viruses represent an increasing global public health threat, exacerbated by urbanisation and climate change, thus making effective mosquito control essential. RNA interference (RNAi), a sequence-specific gene regulation mechanism, can be a flexible vector control tool. RNAi effectors, such as double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), can target mosquito genes or the viruses they carry, disrupting development or suppressing infection. However, current RNAi delivery methods are ineffective. Engineered bacterial symbionts offer a promising alternative for delivery, as they can produce dsRNA directly within mosquitoes. However, bacterial RNAi delivery in mosquitoes remains underexplored. We review emerging genetic tools, insights from RNAi and bacteria–mosquito interactions to outline priorities for realising bacterial RNAi as an efficient and sustainable vector control strategy.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Drug Resistance in Filarial Parasites Does Not Affect Mosquito Vectorial Capacity

Parasite drug resistance presents a major obstacle to controlling and eliminating vector-borne diseases affecting humans and animals. While vector-borne disease dynamics are affected by factors related to parasite, vertebrate host and vector, research on drug resistance in filarial parasites has primarily focused on the parasite and vertebrate host, rather than the mosquito. However, we expect that the physiological costs associated with drug resistance would reduce the fitness of drug-resistant vs. drug-susceptible parasites in the mosquito wherein parasites are not exposed to drugs. Here we test this hypothesis using four isolates of the dog heartworm (Dirofilaria immitis)—two drug susceptible and two drug resistant—and two vectors—the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and the Asian tiger mosquito (Ae. albopictus)—as our model system. Our data indicated that while vector species had a significant effect on vectorial capacity, there was no significant difference in the vectorial capacity of mosquitoes infected with drug-resistant vs. drug-susceptible parasites. Consequently, contrary to expectations, our data indicate that drug resistance in D. immitis does not appear to reduce the transmission efficiency of these parasites, and thus the spread of drug-resistant parasites in the vertebrate population is unlikely to be mitigated by reduced fitness in the mosquito vector.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of large volume yeast interfering RNA lure-and-kill ovitraps for attraction and control of Aedes mosquitoes

Aedes mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae), principle vectors of several arboviruses, typically lay eggs in man-made water-filled containers located near human dwellings. Given the widespread emergence of insecticide resistance, stable and biofriendly alternatives for mosquito larviciding are needed. Laboratory studies have demonstrated that inactivated yeast interfering RNA tablets targeting key larval developmental genes can be used to facilitate effective larvicidal activity while also promoting selective gravid female oviposition behaviour. In this work, we examined the efficacy of transferring this technology toward development of lure-and-kill ovitraps targeting Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) female mosquitoes. Insectary, simulated field and semi-field experiments demonstrated that two mosquito-specific yeast interfering RNA pesticides induce high levels of mortality among larvae of both species in treated large volume containers. Small-scale field trials conducted in Trinidad, West Indies demonstrated that large volume ovitrap containers baited with inactivated yeast tablets lure significantly more gravid females than traps containing only water and were highly attractive to both A. aegypti and A. albopictus females. Finally, these studies indicate that development of biorational yeast interfering RNA-baited ovitraps may represent a new tool for control of Aedes mosquitoes, including deployment in existing lure-and-kill ovitrap technologies or traditional container larviciding programs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of PFOS on the behavior, growth, emergence, and predation susceptibility of larval mosquitoes ( Culex quinquefasciatus )

Per-/polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been commonly used over several decades for a variety of products and are very persistent in the environment. However, not much is known about their direct effects on aquatic invertebrates and their ecosystems. We examined the survival, behavior, development, and predation susceptibility of mosquito larvae Culex quinquefasciatus exposed to concentrations of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) ranging from 0.02 to 453.7 µg/L. PFOS exposure resulted in reduced larval survival, with a 48 hour LC50 (concentration with 50 % mortality) of 255.99 µg/L. PFOS exposure also resulted in reduced developmental success and slower maturation to adulthood (and thus slower emergence from the water) compared to control larvae. PFOS also resulted in delays in reaction to prodding stimuli, which were meant to simulate a predator attack, and longer reactions to prodding. Larvae exposed to PFOS also spent more time at the bottom of the water column, rather than at the surface where respiration takes place. Effects of larval mosquito PFOS exposure on predation by unexposed damselfly naiads (genus Ischnura) were not detected. Overall, this research suggests that PFOS impacts mosquito larvae survival, behavior, development, and adult emergence, which could have important implications for food webs or public health given the role of mosquitos as disease vectors.

Food web dynamics↗

Scoping review of Culex mosquito life history trait heterogeneity in response to temperature

Abstract Background Mosquitoes in the genus Culex are primary vectors in the US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes in mosquito range, distribution, and abundance, posing challenges for population modeling, disease forecasting, and subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences in underlying biological dynamics is crucial in the face of climate change. Methods We collected empirical data on thermal response for immature development rate, egg viability, oviposition, survival to adulthood, and adult lifespan for Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. tarsalis , and Cx. restuans from existing literature according to the PRISMA scoping review guidelines. Results We observed linear relationships with temperature for development rate and lifespan, and nonlinear relationships for survival and egg viability, with underlying variation between species. Optimal ranges and critical minima and maxima also appeared varied. To illustrate how model output can change with experimental input data from individual Culex species, we applied a modified equation for temperature-dependent mosquito type reproduction number for endemic spread of WNV among mosquitoes and observed different effects. Conclusions Current models often input theoretical parameters estimated from a single vector species; we show the need to implement the real-world heterogeneity in thermal response between species and present a useful data resource for researchers working toward that goal. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

w Mel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of mosquito proteins that differentially interact with alphavirus nonstructural protein 3, a determinant of vector specificity

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and the closely related onyong-nyong virus (ONNV) are arthritogenic arboviruses that have caused significant, often debilitating, disease in millions of people. However, despite their kinship, they are vectored by different mosquito subfamilies that diverged 180 million years ago (anopheline versus culicine subfamilies). Previous work indicated that the nonstructural protein 3 (nsP3) of these alphaviruses was partially responsible for this vector specificity. To better understand the cellular components controlling alphavirus vector specificity, a cell culture model system of the anopheline restriction of CHIKV was developed along with a protein expression strategy. Mosquito proteins that differentially interacted with CHIKV nsP3 or ONNV nsP3 were identified. Six proteins were identified that specifically bound ONNV nsP3, ten that bound CHIKV nsP3 and eight that interacted with both. In addition to identifying novel factors that may play a role in virus/vector processing, these lists included host proteins that have been previously implicated as contributing to alphavirus replication.

Byers, Nathaniel M. (ORCID:0000000157725940)↗

Highly potent, naturally acquired human monoclonal antibodies against Pfs48/45 block Plasmodium falciparum transmission to mosquitoes

Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) aim to induce antibodies that interrupt malaria parasite development in the mosquito, thereby blocking onward transmission, and provide a much-needed tool for malaria control and elimination. The parasite surface protein Pfs48/45 is a leading TBV candidate. Here, we isolated and characterized a panel of 81 human Pfs48/45-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from donors naturally exposed to Plasmodium parasites. Genetically diverse mAbs against each of the three domains (D1–D3) of Pfs48/45 were identified. The most potent mAbs targeted D1 and D3 and achieved >80% transmission-reducing activity in standard membrane-feeding assays, at 10 and 2 μg/mL, respectively. Co-crystal structures of D3 in complex with four different mAbs delineated two conserved protective epitopes. Altogether, these Pfs48/45-specific human mAbs provide important insight into protective and non-protective epitopes that can further our understanding of transmission and inform the design of refined malaria transmission-blocking vaccine candidates.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗