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Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Effect of Cyclo-Pentane Impurities on the Autoignition Reactivity and Properties of a Gasoline Surrogate Fuel

Surrogate fuels that reproduce the characteristics of full-boiling range fuels are key tools to enable numerical simulations of fuel-related processes and ensure reproducibility of experiments by eliminating batch-to-batch variability. Within the PACE initiative, a surrogate fuel for regular-grade E10 (10%vol ethanol) gasoline representative of a U.S. market gasoline, termed PACE-20, was developed and adopted as baseline fuel for the consortium. Although extensive testing demonstrated that PACE-20 replicates the properties and combustion behavior of the full-boiling range gasoline, several concerns arose regarding the purity level required for the species that compose PACE-20. This is particularly important for cyclo-pentane, since commercial-grade cyclo-pentane typically shows 60%–85% purity. Here, in the present work, the effects of the purity level of cyclo-pentane on the properties and combustion characteristics of PACE-20 were studied. Chemical kinetic simulations were performed to predict the effects of cyclo-pentane impurities on the properties, octane rating, and autoignition reactivity under homogeneous charge compression-ignition conditions of PACE-20. From the numerical results, cyclo-pentane with 85% purity or higher is required to reasonably match both the research octane number and motor octane number of the target gasoline. Finally, homogeneous charge compression-ignition engine simulations show that impurities have only a modest effect on reactivity at naturally aspirated conditions, but cyclo-pentane purity is critical to properly replicate the pressure dependency of the reactivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Independent Fuel Property Effects of Fuel Volatility on Low Temperature Heat Release and Fuel Autoignition (Final Report)

This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) project between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Shell Global Solutions (Shell) was initiated as part of a Directed Funding Opportunity (DFO) call for proposals from the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines (Co-Optima) initiative. Shell had observed that volatile fuels suppress low temperature heat release (LTHR) more than expected based on conventional gasoline autoignition metrics: research octane number (RON) and motor octane number (MON). The role of LTHR contributes to autoignition phenomena for both boosted spark ignition (BSI) and advanced compression ignition (ACI) combustion modes. ACI combustion modes are applicable to large engines in the hard-to-electrify applications such as off-road, rail, and marine. Thus, having a reliable understanding of autoignition phenomena, including being able to accurately account for the effects of fuel volatility, is particularly important as new synthetic and bio-fuel compositions are considered.This CRADA project aimed to test the hypothesis that the decreased LTHR is due to preferential evaporation of multicomponent fuels when using direct injection (DI) fueling technology, creating composition and reactivity stratification. A custom set of fuels was designed and blended to test this hypothesis by Shell, with experimental engine studies at ORNL and engine combustion modeling by ANL. However, the initial experimental findings did not show the expected effect of fuel volatility suppressing LTHR. Instead, the LTHR propensity observed was independent of the fuel volatility. Due to the unexpected experimental result, the remainder of the experimental effort was redirected to study the effect of fuel volatility on emissions under spark-ignited cold-start conditions. However, as with the LTHR experiments, the cold start effort did not show a meaningful effect of fuel volatility on cold start emissions. Meanwhile, improved engine CFD models have been developed for both LTHR and cold start operations for the Shell fuels with different volatilities. While the simulation efforts were not pursued further due to the insignificant effects of fuel volatility as shown in experiments, the models developed can be easily retooled for off-road, rail, and marine applications.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Artificial Neural Network Models for Octane Number and Octane Sensitivity: A Quantitative Structure Property Relationship Approach to Fuel Design

Octane sensitivity (OS), defined as the research octane number (RON) minus the motor octane number (MON) of a fuel, has gained interest among researchers due to its effect on knocking conditions in internal combustion engines. Compounds with a high OS enable higher efficiencies, especially within advanced compression ignition engines. RON/MON must be experimentally tested to determine OS, requiring time, funding, and specialized equipment. Thus, predictive models trained with existing experimental data and molecular descriptors (via quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs)) would allow for the preemptive screening of compounds prior to performing these experiments. Here, the present work proposes two methods for predicting the OS of a given compound: using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained with QSPR descriptors to predict RON and MON individually to compute OS (derived octane sensitivity (dOS)), and using ANNs trained with QSPR descriptors to directly predict OS. Twenty-five ANNs were trained for both RON and MON and their test sets achieved an overall 6.4% and 5.2% error, respectively. Twenty-five additional ANNs were trained for both dOS and OS; dOS calculations were found to have 15.3% error while predicting OS directly resulted in 9.9% error. A chemical analysis of the top QSPR descriptors for RON/MON and OS is conducted, highlighting desirable structural features for high-performing molecules and offering insight into the inner mathematical workings of ANNs; such chemical interpretations study the interconnections between structural features, descriptors, and fuel performance showing that connectivity, structural diversity, and atomic hybridization consistently drive fuel performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effects of knock intensity measurement technique and fuel chemical composition on the research octane number (RON) of FACE gasolines: Part 2 – Effects of spark timing

The Research and Motor Octane Number (RON, MON) characterize a fuel’s knock resistance by rating the knock intensity of a sample fuel relative to that of Primary Reference Fuels (PRF) in a Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) Engine. A fuel’s octane number is regulated to prevent damage from autoignition leading to knocking combustion in spark-ignition engines. The operational differences between the standard RON rating and modern engine operation are explored in a three-part publication series. The previous study focused on the effects of lambda and knock characterization. This second study primarily focuses on the effects of spark timing on RON determination. Following the findings from the first publication, the knock intensity was captured by the knockmeter and by the maximum amplitude of pressure oscillations (MAPO) at the lambda of peak knock intensity and stoichiometry. Knock-limited spark advance tests were conducted for a set of seven Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE) from the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) with varying chemical composition, PRFs, and Toluene Standardization Fuels (TSFs). For retarded spark timings, pre-spark low-temperature heat release was found for low RON PRFs. Low RON PRFs also showed knocking characteristics before reaching the center of combustion suggesting that the use of knock-limited spark advance (KLSA) was preferred over the knock-limited combustion phasing. Primarily paraffinic fuels tended towards increased pressure oscillations while dominantly aromatic fuels experienced higher pressure rise rates. A MAPO-based KLSA correlated best to Octane Index at a negative K-factor suggesting beyond RON operation despite being at otherwise RON conditions. At stoichiometry, the MAPO-based KLSA did neither correlate to RON nor Octane Index. Finally, good agreement was found between KLSA-based effective RON from this study to the MAPO-based effective RON from the first study.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Development of a Supercharged Octane Number and a Supercharged Octane Index

Gasoline knock resistance is characterized by the Research and Motor Octane Number (RON and MON), which are rated on the CFR octane rating engine at naturally aspirated conditions. However, modern automotive downsized boosted spark ignition (SI) engines generally operate at higher cylinder pressures and lower temperatures relative to the RON and MON tests. Using the naturally aspirated RON and MON ratings, the octane index (OI) characterizes the knock resistance of gasolines under boosted operation by linearly extrapolating into boosted “beyond RON” conditions via RON, MON, and a linear regression K factor. Using OI solely based on naturally aspirated RON and MON tests to extrapolate into boosted conditions can lead to significant errors in predicting boosted knock resistance between gasolines due to non-linear changes in autoignition and knocking characteristics with increasing pressure conditions. Here, a new “Supercharged Octane Number” (SON) method was developed on the CFR engine at increased intake pressures, which improved the correlation to boosted knock-limited automotive SI engine data over RON for several surrogate fuels and gasolines, including five “Co-Optima” RON 98 fuels and an E10 regular grade gasoline. Furthermore, the conventional OI was extended to a newly introduced Supercharged Octane Index (OI S ) based on SON and RON, which significantly improved the correlation to fuel knock resistance measurements from modern boosted SI engine knock-limited spark advance tests. This demonstrated the first proof of concept of a SON and OI S to better characterize a fuel’s knock resistance in modern boosted SI engines.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fuel-air mixing in motored CFR engine at research octane number (RON) relevant condition

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a motored cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine at research octane number (RON) relevant condition. The boundary conditions for 3-D simulations were generated with a one-dimensional GT-Power model. For the first time in literature, a carburetor was added to a virtual CFR engine model with 3-D CFD. Therefore, the proposed setup can simulate the fuel and thermal stratifications inside the engine cylinder with realistic detail. The transient simulations in this work were performed within the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework with a Realizable k-ε turbulence model. Major conclusions from the present work are: (1) The in-cylinder flow of the CFR engine is swirl-dominated due to the existence of the intake valve shroud. (2) There is a significant amount of liquid droplets entering the cylinder during the intake stroke. The maximum instantaneous amount of liquid for 50% PRF 87 (containing 87% iso-octane and 13% n-heptane (v/v)) and 50% ethanol mixture is indicated to be around 26% of total injected fuel mass. (3) The heat of vaporization (HoV) of the fuel is responsible for creating both temperature and charge stratification inside the cylinder.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗