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Results for “multi-fidelity methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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15 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consequential improvement acquisition function for efficient multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization

Abstract Surrogate-based Bayesian optimization has been widely applied in design optimization to increase sampling efficiency. However, the cost for each evaluation of the objective function can still be very high when physical experiments or large-scale simulations are involved. Multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization is the new approach to further improve the sampling efficiency by reducing the number of expensive samples at the highest fidelity level and supplementing them with less expensive ones at low-fidelity levels. In this paper, a new consequential improvement (CI) acquisition function is proposed to allow for the simultaneous selection of the solution and the fidelity level in problems with a known hierarchy of fidelity levels. The new CI acquisition function incorporates the consequential effectiveness of objective improvement with the considerations of cost, accuracy, and validity differences between high- and low-fidelity samples in engineering practice. The new method of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization based on the CI is demonstrated with several analytical and simulation-based design examples. In the simulation-based design optimization example, the results show that the CI acquisition function has a decisive advantage in the sampling efficiency over the other methods of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization with simultaneous selection. The results indicate that the proposed method is particularly advantageous in solving high-dimensional problems and when large cost ratios between high- and low-fidelity evaluations exist and high-fidelity validation is mandatory. Furthermore, the method robustly avoids the prevalent issue of over sampling at low-fidelity levels.

Aydogdu, Ibrahim [Georgia Institute of Technology,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization Through Multi-Fidelity Modeling

We present a novel method for optimizing parameter selection for simulations with an evaluation budget. We start with an existing method for building a multi-fidelity model out of many low-fidelity simulations and few high-fidelity simulations. We propose a novel method to simplify parameter selection without sacrificing performance. We verify these results and compare with existing literature. Next, we propose a novel algorithm which uses this difference model to suggest new points in the parameter design space to simulate. We add each point we simulate to the model to improve its quality for the next iteration. The algorithm trades off reducing the uncertainty of the existing model with optimization of the objective. The first is more useful when a large fraction of the computation budget remains. The second is more useful when a small fraction of the computation budget remains. Our method converges to the optimum by using a high-fidelity evaluation for just 16 of the 427 points. Our method is general enough to work if there is no low-fidelity model. Furthermore, it is agnostic to the underlying physics of the problem. Therefore, both the low-fidelity and high-fidelity models can be generated by any arbitrary function, including simulations and physical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A critical review on additive manufacturing of refractory alloys from a data analytics perspective- beyond nickel-based superalloys

Refractory alloys (RAs) are promising materials due to their exceptional physicochemical properties, but most research remains at the laboratory scale. For broader adoption, advancements in manufacturing are essential. Because their high stability makes conventional methods like machining and casting difficult, additive manufacturing (AM) is emerging as an effective approach for fabricating refractory alloy components. However, AM's repeated non-equilibrium thermal cycles introduce undesired features (e.g. defects, anisotropic microstructures, and residual stresses), which are magnified due to RAs’ unique properties. This paper comprehensively reviews the state-of-the-art methods of AM for refractory alloys. It explores data analytics techniques to establish design rules based on multi-fidelity experimental and computational methods. Furthermore, it investigates integrated, collaborative efforts to harmonise standalone databases, information, knowledge, and predictive models at multi-physics, multi-stage, and multi-scale. Unlike the existing literature that focuses primarily on material systems or process fundamentals, this work provides an integrated perspective on AM of refractory alloys from a data analytics standpoint, highlighting the roles of integrated computational materials engineering (ICME), verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VV&UQ), and digital twin-driven qualification in overcoming data scarcity and accelerating rapid qualification.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2025

REBOUND: Reverse Engineering Bidirectional Outflow Under Non-Equilibrium Diffusion

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential for electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. However, the current supply of REEs relies on mining concentrated in a few countries and energy-intensive separations. DOE’s Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program has launched a grand challenge which aims to ensure a sustainable supply of critical REEs by developing innovative and environmentally friendly separation methods. As an alternative to costly and harmful traditional methods, the Non-Equilibrium Transport Driven Separations (NETS) initiative has created a microfluidic Y-channel co-flow method that applies external fields to exploit magneto- and electrohydrodynamic effects for separating dilute REE ions from complex feedstocks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have identified a few operating conditions with promising ion selectivity and separation efficiency. However, challenges remain regarding Y-channel versatility across feedstocks and accurate incorporation of physical phenomena into CFD models. In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity modelling approach which integrates experimental results with CFD simulation to build a surrogate model for the dependence of separation efficiency to variation of design parameters. The surrogate model enables a reinforcement learning (RL) method to adaptively launch CFD and experimental runs, improving model fidelity around optimal Y-channel parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applications of Nickelate perovskites for neuromorphic computing from electronic structure and Machine Learning

While the limit of Moore's law is presently being reached with current microelectronic technologies, we need to develop new paradigms that overcome this limitation. In that respect, neuromorphic computing is a concept that emulates the neural behavior and response of the human brain, and it has been recognized as a promising alternative approach. In this research project, we will perform multi-fidelity scale bridging to explore the potential use of materials with metal to insulator transition for neuromorphic applications. In particular, rare earth nickelates are promising for such purposes, as the transition in these materials is quite sensitive to a broad set of different external stimuli. Our multi-fidelity approach will bridge the high-fidelity electronic structure calculations with classical potentials. We will bridge dynamical mean field theory with a classical atomistic representation via a deep learning force field. The neural network is trained with energies, charges, and forces obtained by accurate electronic structure theories based on Dynamical Mean Field Theory. The configurational space is generated from known crystal phases, ab initio molecular dynamics with exchange-correlation functionals corrected with the Hubbard model, disordered phases with different concentrations of oxygen vacancies, and nonsymmetrical positions and induced strain by grain interfaces or contact with a substrate. Strategies to train the model with a reduced number of training examples are obtained from active learning methods, and new structures for improving the learning process are generated by using machine learning autoencoders. This classical potential will be validated through a diversity of electronic structure methods and represents an important step to combine the flexibility and accuracy of first-principles with the speed of classical potentials. The generated multi-fidelity surrogate model will be used to understand the role of strain, oxygen vacancies, proton doping, the variation of the crystal phase, substrate effects, vibrational effects as the octahedral rotation, grain boundaries and defect effects on the response of a Metal to Insulator Transition (MIT) in correlated materials. Long time and large-scale simulations will help understand the role of different stimuli to control the hysteresis of the MIT, as it has been experimentally suggested. Selected configurations will be analyzed with higher-level theories to provide an accurate electronic description and to study how the orbitals and charges are rearranged under different conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-fidelity learning for interatomic potentials: low-level forces and high-level energies are all you need

The promise of machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) has led to an abundance of public quantum mechanical (QM) training datasets. The quality of an MLIP is directly limited by the accuracy of the energies and atomic forces in the training dataset. Unfortunately, most of these datasets are computed with relatively low-accuracy QM methods, e.g. density functional theory with a moderate basis set. Due to the increased computational cost of more accurate QM methods, e.g. coupled-cluster theory with a complete basis set (CBS) extrapolation, most high-accuracy datasets are much smaller and often do not contain atomic forces. The lack of high-accuracy atomic forces is quite troubling, as training with force data greatly improves the stability and quality of the MLIP compared to training to energy alone. Because most datasets are computed with a unique level of theory, traditional single-fidelity (SF) learning is not capable of leveraging the vast amounts of published QM data. In this study, we apply multi-fidelity learning (MFL) to train an MLIP to multiple QM datasets of different levels of accuracy, i.e. levels of fidelity. Specifically, we perform three test cases to demonstrate that MFL with both low-level forces and high-level energies yields an extremely accurate MLIP—far more accurate than a SF MLIP trained solely to high-level energies and almost as accurate as a SF MLIP trained directly to high-level energies and forces. Therefore, MFL greatly alleviates the need for generating large and expensive datasets containing high-accuracy atomic forces and allows for more effective training to existing high-accuracy energy-only datasets. Indeed, low-accuracy atomic forces and high-accuracy energies are all that are needed to achieve a high-accuracy MLIP with MFL.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-task Parallelism for Robust Pre-training of Graph Foundation Models on Multi-source, Multi-fidelity Atomistic Modeling Data

Graph foundation models using graph neural networks promise sustainable, efficient atomistic modeling. To tackle challenges of processing multi-source, multi-fidelity data during pre-training, recent studies employ multi-task learning, in which shared message passing layers initially process input atomistic structures regardless of source, then route them to multiple decoding heads that predict data-specific outputs. This approach stabilizes pre-training and enhances a model’s transferability to unexplored chemical regions. Preliminary results on approximately four million structures are encouraging, yet questions remain about generalizability to larger, more diverse datasets and scalability on supercomputers. We propose a multi-task parallelism method that distributes each head across computing resources with GPU acceleration. Implemented in the open-source HydraGNN architecture, our method was trained on over 24 million structures from five datasets and tested on the Perlmutter, Aurora, and Frontier supercomputers, demonstrating efficient scaling on all three highly heterogeneous super-computing architectures.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000249↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning Latent Representations to Bridge Coarse-Grained and Atomistic Resolutions in Polymer Simulations

We present a machine-learning-based framework for learning reduced-order representations of polymer chain conformations across coarse-grained (CG) and united-atom (UA) fidelities. By employing linear singular value decomposition and nonlinear autoencoders, we compress high-dimensional polymer configurations into latent spaces with minimal loss of structural accuracy. Crucially, we demonstrate a near-perfect linear mapping between CG and UA latent spaces, enabling an efficient super-resolution back-mapping procedure that reconstructs high-fidelity UA configurations from CG simulations. While minor structural inaccuracies occur, they are effectively corrected through a brief molecular dynamics relaxation, forming a practical hybrid machine learning−physics scheme. This approach establishes the key structural prerequisites for accelerated polymer dynamics simulations: a compact and accurate latent encoding of polymer chain conformations and a validated multi-fidelity mapping that permits reconstruction of UA structures from CG configurations. The extension of this framework to explicit time evolution within the latent space, enabling dynamics to be propagated at CG fidelity and decoded to UA resolution only when required, represents a natural and well-motivated direction for future work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization with Deep Kernel and Partition

Multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) is a powerful approach that utilizes lowfidelity, cost-effective sources to expedite the exploration and exploitation of a high-fidelity objective function. Existing MFBO methods with theoretical foundations either lack justification for performance improvements over single-fidelity optimization or rely on strong assumptions about the relationships between fidelity sources to construct surrogate models and direct queries to low-fidelity sources. To mitigate the dependency on cross-fidelity assumptions while maintaining the advantages of low-fidelity queries, we introduce a random sampling and partition-based MFBO framework with deep kernel learning. This framework is robust to cross-fidelity model misspecification and explicitly illustrates the benefits of low-fidelity queries. Our results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm effectively manages complex cross-fidelity relationships and efficiently optimizes the target fidelity function.

Zhang, Fengxue [University of Chicago, Illinois, U↗