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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Anomaly detection in scientific data using joint statistical moments

We propose an anomaly detection method for multi-variate scientific data based on analysis of high-order joint moments. Using kurtosis as a reliable measure of outliers, we suggest that principal kurtosis vectors, by analogy to principal component analysis (PCA) vectors, signify the principal directions along which outliers appear. The inception of an anomaly, then, manifests as a change in the principal values and vectors of kurtosis. Obtaining the principal kurtosis vectors requires decomposing a fourth order joint cumulant tensor for which we use a simple, computationally less expensive approach that involves performing a singular value decomposition (SVD) over the matricized tensor. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on synthetic data, and develop an algorithm to identify the occurrence of a spatial and/or temporal anomalous event in scientific phenomena. The algorithm decomposes the data into several spatial sub-domains and time steps to identify regions with such events. Feature moment metrics, based on the alignments of the principal kurtosis vectors, are computed at each sub-domain and time step for all features to quantify their relative importance towards the overall kurtosis in the data. Accordingly, spatial and temporal anomaly metrics for each sub-domain are proposed using the Hellinger distance of the feature moment metric distribution from a suitable nominal distribution. Finally, we apply the algorithm to two turbulent auto-ignition combustion cases and demonstrate that the anomaly metrics reliably capture the occurrence of auto-ignition in relevant spatial sub-domains at the right time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dial-A-Cluster

Dial-A-Cluster is a web application that can be used to interactively analyze multi-variate time series data. It supports multiple users, DOE markings, and user authentication. It is designed to let the user adjust the influence of particular time series in the dataset, interact with the resulting dimension reduced visualization, interact with the time series themselves, and look for correlations of the data with any available meta-data.

Martin, Shawn↗

Progress Towards a Neutral Current $\pi^0$ Cross Section Analysis in the NOvA Near Detector

The NOvA neutrino experiment is attempting to measure properties of neutrinos in order to figure out information about the universe. To detect the signal neutrino interactions, we must determine methods to identify and isolate background events. Research focused on a specific background interaction called a single prong neutral current $\pi^0$ interaction. To do this, a basic cuts based analysis was performed, followed by feeding data into a multi-variate analysis package using a boosted decision tree (BDT) algorithm. Using the BDT, a a new variable was generated which separates signal and background very efficiently. Further work must still be done in order to continue improving the performance of the BDT. This research is valuable to the field of studying neutrino cross sections as it is a background which will always be present in this type of analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Gradient-Based Novelty Detection Boosted by Self-Supervised Binary Classification

Novelty detection aims to automatically identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data, without any prior knowledge of them. It is a critical step in data monitoring, behavior analysis and other applications, helping enable continual learning in the field. Conventional methods of OOD detection perform multi-variate analysis on an ensemble of data or features, and usually resort to the supervision with OOD data to improve the accuracy. In reality, such supervision is impractical as one cannot anticipate the anomalous data. In this paper, we propose a novel, self-supervised approach that does not rely on any pre-defined OOD data: (1) The new method evaluates the Mahalanobis distance of the gradients between the in-distribution and OOD data. (2) It is assisted by a self-supervised binary classifier to guide the label selection to generate the gradients, and maximize the Mahalanobis distance. In the evaluation with multiple datasets, such as CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN and TinyImageNet, the proposed approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised and unsupervised methods in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) metrics. We further demonstrate that this detector is able to accurately learn one OOD class in continual learning.

Sun, Jingbo↗

Application of predictive data analytics to model daily hydrocarbon production using petrophysical, geomechanical, fiber-optic, completions, and surface data: A case study from the Marcellus Shale, North America

Predicting gas production from stimulated unconventional reservoirs has always been a challenge to oil and gas companies because the physics of fluid flow through such reservoirs is not well understood. On the other hand, modeling gas production from shale reservoirs is a complex multi-variate problem that requires proper integration of data from multiple disciplines, such as geology, petrophysics, geomechanics, completions, and surface-based measurements, etc. Here this study demonstrates the application of data-driven machine learning algorithms, integrating geoscientific, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), distributed temperature sensing (DTS) fiber-optic, completions, flow scanner production log, and surface data to model daily gas production from a 28-stage stimulated horizontal well drilled in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian basin in North America. In addition, this study aims to utilize the data from a fiber-optic monitoring system, such as DAS and DTS to evaluate the well performance. We build supervised data-driven machine learning models using Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms to understand the well performance and forecast the daily gas production. The study compares the forecasted results, tests the level of accuracy, and addresses different issues with these machine learning algorithms. A spatio-temporal database is constructed and used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify the key drivers for gas production. The results show that RF and ANN algorithms can be used to predict daily gas production with significantly high accuracy; however, RF algorithm is the best predictor in terms of highest accuracy (96%), less computational time and cost. Based on sensitivity analysis, it appears that Poisson's ratio, minimum horizontal stress, DAS, casing pressure, gamma log are the most important parameters to predict gas production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Integrating Applied Energy and BER Smart Data Capabilities to Develop a DOE Data Fabric for Energy-Water R&D

Focal Area(s): 1) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: DOE R&D, including DOE’s Basic Energy Research (BER)’s Environmental Systems Science Division (EESSD) program and DOE’s applied energy research (AER) programs (EERE, FE, and NE) are producers and consumers of Earth systems datasets. This white paper focuses on the first topic area from the call in relation to how crosscutting resources and innovations from DOE’s EESSD and AER can be brought to bear to mutual benefit and more efficient energy-water, Earth system data resources through improved. The overarching challenge posed by this call focuses on how DOE can directly leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to engineer a substantial (paradigm-changing) improvement in Earth System Predictability? While stemming from DOE BER’s EESSD program, this is a challenge that is faced and also being addressed by DOE’s AER programs. Over the past decade plus, FE, EERE, and NE programs have made important strides towards addressing this need. These strides are in many ways highly complementary to EESSD’s MODEX efforts. Energy water systems spanning metocean to groundwater to surface water systems all are data driven whether for basic energy or applied energy. These are remote, multi-variate, complex natural, and in many cases engineered, systems. Key needs and challenges of both EESSD and AER include developing data-focused tools to enhance data search and discovery to fill in knowledge gaps (address sparse data challenge), and rapidly transform datasets, including disparate and multi-source data. Leveraging DOE on-premise computing (HPC, exascale) infrastructure supports the computing-intensive algorithms required to execute these data acquisition and transformation processes to derive enriched knowledge and data, driving AI/ML and big data analytics for these systems. The opportunity lies in combining BER and AER efforts to provide a more robust, advanced, efficient and complete computing data fabric to address energy-water data acquisition and assimilation needs which currently pose significant impediments to AI/ML predictions and research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bootstrapping a stress-tensor form factor through eight loops

We bootstrap the three-point form factor of the chiral stress-tensor multiplet in planar $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory at six, seven, and eight loops, using boundary data from the form factor operator product expansion. This may represent the highest perturbative order to which multi-variate quantities in a unitary four-dimensional quantum field theory have been computed. In computing this form factor, we observe and employ new restrictions on pairs and triples of adjacent letters in the symbol. We provide details about the function space required to describe the form factor through eight loops. Plotting the results on various lines provides striking numerical evidence for a finite radius of convergence of perturbation theory. By the principle of maximal transcendentality, our results are expected to give the highest weight part of the gg → Hg and H → ggg amplitudes in the heavy-top limit of QCD through eight loops. These results were also recently used to discover a new antipodal duality between this form factor and a six-point amplitude in the same theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Slycat™ User Manual

Slycat™ is a web-based system for performing data analysis and visualization of potentially large quantities of remote, high-dimensional data. Slycat™ specializes in working with ensemble data. An ensemble is a group of related data sets, which typically consists of a set of simulation runs exploring the same problem space. An ensemble can be thought of as a set of samples within a multi-variate domain, where each sample is a vector whose value defines a point in high-dimensional space. To understand and describe the underlying problem being modeled in the simulations, ensemble analysis looks for shared behaviors and common features across the group of runs. Additionally, ensemble analysis tries to quantify differences found in any members that deviate from the rest of the group. The Slycat™ system integrates data management, scalable analysis, and visualization. Results are viewed remotely on a user’s desktop via commodity web clients using a multi-tiered hierarchy of computation and data storage, as shown in Figure 1. Our goal is to operate on data as close to the source as possible, thereby reducing time and storage costs associated with data movement. Consequently, we are working to develop parallel analysis capabilities that operate on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, to explore approaches for reducing data size, and to implement strategies for staging computation across the Slycat™ hierarchy. Within Slycat™, data and visual analysis are organized around projects, which are shared by a project team. Project members are explicitly added, each with a designated set of permissions. Although users sign-in to access Slycat™, individual accounts are not maintained. Instead, authentication is used to determine project access. Within projects, Slycat™ models capture analysis results and enable data exploration through various visual representations. Although for scientists each simulation run is a model of real-world phenomena given certain conditions, we use the term model to refer to our modeling of the ensemble data, not the physics. Different model types often provide complementary perspectives on data features when analyzing the same data set. Each model visualizes data at several levels of abstraction, allowing the user to range from viewing the ensemble holistically to accessing numeric parameter values for a single run. Bookmarks provide a mechanism for sharing results, enabling interesting model states to be labeled and saved.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep Sequencing of MHC-Adapted Viral Lines Reveals Complex Recombinational Exchanges With Endogenous Retroviruses Leading to High-Frequency Variants

Experimental evolution (serial passage) of Friend virus complex (FVC) in mice demonstrates phenotypic adaptation to specific host major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genotypes. These evolved viral lines show increased fitness and virulence in their host-genotype-of-passage, but display fitness and virulence tradeoffs when infecting unfamiliar host MHC genotypes. Here, we deep sequence these viral lines in an attempt to discover the genetic basis of FVC adaptation. The principal prediction for genotype-specific adaptation is that unique mutations would rise to high frequency in viral lines adapted to each host MHC genotype. This prediction was not supported by our sequencing data as most observed high-frequency variants were present in each of our independently evolved viral lines. However, using a multi-variate approach to measure divergence between viral populations, we show that populations of replicate evolved viral lines from the same MHC congenic mouse strain were more similar to one another than to lines derived from different MHC congenic mouse strains, suggesting that MHC genotype does predictably act on viral evolution in our model. Sequence analysis also revealed rampant recombination with endogenous murine leukemia virus sequences (EnMuLVs) that are encoded within the BALB/c mouse genome. The highest frequency variants in all six lines contained a 12 bp insertion from a recombinant EnMuLV source, suggesting such recombinants were either being favored by selection or were contained in a recombinational hotspot. Interestingly, they did not reach fixation, as if they are low fitness. The amount of background mutations linked to FVC/EnMuLV variable sites indicated that FVC/EnMuLV recombinants had not reached mutation selection equilibrium and thus, that EnMuLV sequences are likely continuously introgressing into the replicating viral population. These discoveries raise the question: is the expression of EnMuLV sequences in mouse splenocytes that permit recombination with exogenous FVC a pathogen or host adaptation?

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Dynamical Systems in High-Dimensional Parameter Spaces (Final Report)

In the last few decades, computational models, especially of the complex dynamical systems of greatest interest, i.e., climate, high energy density science, combustion, etc. have become increasingly accurate and sophisticated. Consequently, they are now routinely used to predict outcomes of experiments or to inform design decisions. However, many such simulations depend on a (large) number of parameters in order to, for example, approximate physical phenom whose exact solution is unknown or describe material properties in situations with little or no experimental data. Choosing these parameters and understanding how the outcomes of such a simulation changes with respect to the inputs are rapidly becoming some of the primary challenges in many application areas. Simulations have long been too complex for humans to fully comprehend and thus are often treated as black-box systems. The inputs to the systems are typically a collection of parameters with expert-selected ranges, and the outputs are various quantities of interest (QoIs) describing the performance of the system. Therefore, the fundamental challenge can be described as one of understanding a high-dimensional (many input parameters), multi-variate (many QoIs) function. Unfortunately, existing analysis tools are only of limited use for this task as most techniques can neither deal with many input dimensions nor offer opportunities to jointly study several QoIs. Furthermore, data analysis has long relied on an exploratory process in which scientist first visualize the available data, for example, using scatter plots or 3D renderings, form new hypotheses on some phenomena of interest, and subsequently test these hypotheses using dedicated analysis or statistics approaches. However, for high-dimensional functions this exploration is difficult if not impossible using existing tools as there are too many QoIs to simultaneously observe, and visualizations of high-dimensional spaces are abstract and difficult to understand if they exist at all. The goal of this project is to build new analysis techniques and tool that offer high level insights for exploring high-dimensional scientific data. And to extend existing approach beyond single scalar functions and instead consider multiple QoIs simultaneously.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A sparse reconstruction method for the estimation of multi-resolution emission fields via atmospheric inversion

Atmospheric inversions are frequently used to estimate fluxes of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., biospheric CO 2 flux fields) at Earth's surface. These inversions typically assume that flux departures from a prior model are spatially smoothly varying, which are then modeled using a multi-variate Gaussian. When the field being estimated is spatially rough, multi-variate Gaussian models are difficult to construct and a wavelet-based field model may be more suitable. Unfortunately, such models are very high dimensional and are most conveniently used when the estimation method can simultaneously perform data-driven model simplification (removal of model parameters that cannot be reliably estimated) and fitting. Such sparse reconstruction methods are typically not used in atmospheric inversions. In this work, we devise a sparse reconstruction method, and illustrate it in an idealized atmospheric inversion problem for the estimation of fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions in the lower 48 states of the USA. Our new method is based on stagewise orthogonal matching pursuit (StOMP), a method used to reconstruct compressively sensed images. Our adaptations bestow three properties to the sparse reconstruction procedure which are useful in atmospheric inversions. We have modified StOMP to incorporate prior information on the emission field being estimated and to enforce non-negativity on the estimated field. Finally, though based on wavelets, our method allows for the estimation of fields in non-rectangular geometries, e.g., emission fields inside geographical and political boundaries. Our idealized inversions use a recently developed multi-resolution (i.e., wavelet-based) random field model developed for ffCO 2 emissions and synthetic observations of ffCO 2 concentrations from a limited set of measurement sites. We find that our method for limiting the estimated field within an irregularly shaped region is about a factor of 10 faster than conventional approaches. It also reduces the overall computational cost by a factor of 2. Further, the sparse reconstruction scheme imposes non-negativity without introducing strong nonlinearities, such as those introduced by employing log-transformed fields, and thus reaps the benefits of simplicity and computational speed that are characteristic of linear inverse problems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of b-jet identification in the ATLAS experiment

The identification of jets containing b hadrons is important for the physics programme of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Several algorithms to identify jets containing b hadrons are described, ranging from those based on the reconstruction of an inclusive secondary vertex or the presence of tracks with large impact parameters to combined tagging algorithms making use of multi-variate discriminants. An independent b-tagging algorithm based on the reconstruction of muons inside jets as well as the b-tagging algorithm used in the online trigger are also presented. The b-jet tagging efficiency, the c-jet tagging efficiency and the mistag rate for light flavour jets in data have been measured with a number of complementary methods. The calibration results are presented as scale factors defined as the ratio of the efficiency (or mistag rate) in data to that in simulation. In the case of b jets, where more than one calibration method exists, the results from the various analyses have been combined taking into account the statistical correlation as well as the correlation of the sources of systematic uncertainty.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High throughput crystal structure and composition mapping of crystalline nanoprecipitates in alloys by transmission Kikuchi diffraction and analytical electron microscopy

Statistically significant crystal structure and composition identification of nanocrystalline features such as nanoparticles/nanoprecipitates in materials chemistry and alloy designing using electron microscopy remains a grand challenge. In this paper, we reveal that differing crystallographic phases of nanoprecipitates in alloys can be mapped with unprecedented statistics using transmission Kikuchi diffraction (TKD), on typical carbon-based electron-transparent samples. Using a case of multiphase, multicomponent nanoprecipitates extracted from an improved version of 9% chromium Eurofer-97 reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic steel we show that TKD successfully identified more than thousand M 23 C 6 , MX, M 7 C 3 , and M 2 X ( M =Fe, Cr, W, V, Ta; X = C, N) nanoprecipitates in a single scan, something that is currently unachievable using a transmission electron microscope (TEM) without incorporating a precision electron diffraction (PED) system. Precipitates as small as ~20–25 nm were successfully phase identified by TKD. We verified the TKD phase identification using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) and convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) pattern analysis of a few precipitates that were identified by TKD on same sample. TKD study was combined with state-of-art analytical scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM)-energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy and multivariate statistical analysis (MVSA) which provided the complete crystal structure and distinct chemistries of the precipitates in the steel in a high throughput automated way. This technique should be applicable to characterizing any multiphase crystalline nanoparticles or nanomaterials. Furthermore the results highlight that combining phase identification by TKD with analytical STEM and modern data analytics may open new pathways in big data material characterization at nanoscale that may be highly beneficial for characterizing existing materials and in designing new materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Discovering useful genetic variation in the seed parent gene pool for sorghum improvement

Multi-parent populations contain valuable genetic material for dissecting complex, quantitative traits and provide a unique opportunity to capture multi-allelic variation compared to the biparental populations. A multi-parent advanced generation inter-cross (MAGIC) B-line (MBL) population composed of 708 F 6 recombinant inbred lines (RILs), was recently developed from four diverse founders. These selected founders strategically represented the four most prevalent botanical races (kafir, guinea, durra, and caudatum) to capture a significant source of genetic variation to study the quantitative traits in grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. MBL was phenotyped at two field locations for seven yield-influencing traits: panicle type (PT), days to anthesis (DTA), plant height (PH), grain yield (GY), 1000-grain weight (TGW), tiller number per meter (TN) and yield per panicle (YPP). High phenotypic variation was observed for all the quantitative traits, with broad-sense heritabilities ranging from 0.34 (TN) to 0.84 (PH). The entire population was genotyped using Diversity Arrays Technology (DArTseq), and 8,800 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were generated. A set of polymorphic, quality-filtered markers (3,751 SNPs) and phenotypic data were used for genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We identified 52 marker-trait associations (MTAs) for the seven traits using BLUPs generated from replicated plots in two locations. We also identified desirable allelic combinations based on the plant height loci (Dw1, Dw2, and Dw3), which influences yield related traits. Additionally, two novel MTAs were identified each on Chr1 and Chr7 for yield traits independent of dwarfing genes. We further performed a multi-variate adaptive shrinkage analysis and 15 MTAs with pleiotropic effect were identified. The five best performing MBL progenies were selected carrying desirable allelic combinations. Since the MBL population was designed to capture significant diversity for maintainer line (B-line) accessions, these progenies can serve as valuable resources to develop superior sorghum hybrids after validation of their general combining abilities via crossing with elite pollinators. Further, newly identified desirable allelic combinations can be used to enrich the maintainer germplasm lines through marker-assisted backcross breeding.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A search for the decay of a B meson into a kaon and a tau lepton pair at the BaBar experiment

The flavour changing neutral current (FCNC) process, $B^+$ → $K^+ τ^+ τ^-$ highly suppressed in the Standard Model (SM). This decay is forbidden at tree level and only occurs at lowest order via one-loop diagrams.$B^+$ → $K^+ τ^+ τ^-$ thus has the potential to provide a stringent test of the SM and a fertile ground for new physics searches. Contributions due to virtual particles in the loop allow one to probe, at relatively low energies, new physics at large mass scales. We search for the rare FCNC process $B^+$ → $K^+ τ^+ τ^-$ using data collected by the BaBaR detector at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The BaBaR data sample corresponds to a total integrated luminosity, at the energy of the Τ(4S) resonance, of 424.4 $fb^-1$ and 471 million $B\bar{B}$ pairs. For this search, hadronic $B_{tag}$ reconstruction is employed, where one B is exclusively reconstructed via one of many possible hadronic modes. The remaining decay products in an event are then attributed to the signal B, on which the search for $B^+$ → $K^+ τ^+ τ^-$ is performed. Each τ is required to decay leptonically, into either an electron or a muon and the lepton neutrinos. Furthermore, a multi-variate analysis technique (neural network) is used to select for signal events and suppress dominant background modes. No significant signal is observed. The resulting branching fraction is measured to be $\beta(B^+$ → $K^+ τ^+)$ = $1.31^{0:66}_{-0:61}$(stat.) $^{+0:35}_{-0:25}$(sys.) x 10$^{-3}$, which is consistent with zero at the 1.9σ level, with an upper limit of 2.25 x 10$^{-3}$, at the 90% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identification of pleiotropic loci mediating structural and non-structural carbohydrate accumulation within the sorghum bioenergy association panel using high-throughput markers

Molecular characterization of diverse germplasm can contribute to breeding programs by increasing genetic gain for sorghum [ Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] improvement. Identifying novel marker-trait associations and candidate genes enriches the existing genomic resources and can improve bioenergy-related traits using genomic-assisted breeding. In the current scenario, identifying the genetic loci underlying biomass and carbon partitioning is vital for ongoing efforts to maximize each carbon sink’s yield for bioenergy production. Here, we have processed a high-density genomic marker (22 466 550) data based on whole-genome sequencing (WGS) using a set of 365 accessions from the bioenergy association panel (BAP), which includes ~19.7 million (19 744 726) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) and 2.7 million (~2 721 824) insertion deletions (indels). A set of high-quality filtered SNP (~5.48 million) derived markers facilitated the assessment of population structure, genetic diversity, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for various traits related to biomass and its composition using the BAP. The phenotypic traits for GWAS included seed color (SC), plant height (PH), days to harvest (DTH), fresh weight (FW), dry weight (DW), brix content % (BRX), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), non-fibrous carbohydrate (NFC), and lignin content. Several novel loci and candidate genes were identified for bioenergy-related traits, and some well-characterized genes for plant height ( Dw1 and Dw2 ) and the YELLOW SEED1 locus ( Y1 ) were validated. We further performed a multi-variate adaptive shrinkage analysis to identify pleiotropic QTL, which resulted in several shared marker-trait associations among bioenergy and compositional traits. Significant marker-trait associations with pleiotropic effects can be used to develop molecular markers for trait improvement using a marker-assisted breeding approach. Significant nucleotide diversity and heterozygosity were observed between photoperiod-sensitive and insensitive individuals of the panel. This diverse bioenergy panel with genomic resources will provide an excellent opportunity for further genetic studies, including selecting parental lines for superior hybrid development to improve biomass-related traits in sorghum.

bioenergy association panel↗

Integrated Multi-Scale Data Analytics and Machine Learning for the Distribution Grid

We consider the field of machine learning and where it is both useful, and not useful, for the distribution grid and buildings interface. While analytics, in general, is a growing field of interest, and often seen as the golden goose in the burgeoning distribution grid industry, its application is often limited by communications infrastructure, or lack of a focused technical application. Overall, the linkage of analytics to purposeful application in the grid space has been limited. In this paper we consider the field of machine learning as a subset of analytical techniques, and discuss its ability and limitations to enable the future distribution grid. To that end, we also consider the potential for mixing distributed and centralized analytics and the pros and cons of these approaches. There is an exponentially expanding volume of measured data being generated on the distribution grid, which, with appropriate application of analytics, may be transformed into intelligible, actionable information that can be provided to the right actors - such as grid and building operators, at the appropriate time to enhance grid or building resilience, efficiency, and operations against various metrics or goals - such as total carbon reduction or other economic benefit to customers. While some basic analysis into these data streams can provide a wealth of information, computational and human boundaries on performing the analysis are becoming significant, with more data and multi-objective concerns. Efficient applications of analysis and the machine learning field are being considered in the loop. This paper describes benefits and limits of present machine-learning applications for use on the grid and presents a series of case studies that illustrate the potential benefits of developing advanced local multi-variate analytics machine-learning-based applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - II: Numerical results

This paper is the second part of a two-part paper that documents the numerical results for the partial derivatives model presented in part I. In this paper, we derive the error bounds for the analytical point-wise error expression and verify our bounds with numerical experiments. The point-wise error expressions make available, and bound, the sources that contribute to the total error of the interpolated cross section in terms of the Lagrange interpolation errors and the model form error. MPACT is used to generate two-group homogenized cross sections for Westinghouse's AP1000 Region 4 lattice to evaluate the accuracy of the bounds. Error bounds calculated over a grid are compared to numerical data for uni-variate and multi-variate interpolation. The point-wise error bounds of a typical case matrix - two branches in each state variable - are displayed for bi-variate interpolation in the state variables: moderator density, fuel temperature, and boron concentration. The error bounds are shown to be highly accurate compared to numerical results, and in accordance with the underlying physics. We then discuss and show how the sources of error contribute to the total error, and consider the improvement of each error source. Finally, we mention future work such as propagating our cross section error bounds through a reactivity calculation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗