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A multicriteria decision analysis framework to measure equitable healthcare access during COVID-19
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A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production
A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.
A systematic multicriteria-based approach to support product portfolio selection in microalgae biorefineries
Here this work proposes and applies a sequential approach of objective methods to aid the decision-making process for the deployment of microalgae biorefineries. The strategy combines Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and weight assignment methods to simultaneously consider technical, economic, and environmental criteria to (1) outrank the best bioproduct options from different biomass fractions present in microalgae biomass at different ratios (namely carbohydrates, lipids, and protein) and (2) define the most suitable biorefining pathways associated with specific pairings of microalgae strains and cultivation conditions. The first part of the assessment identified succinic acid, acrylic acid, and citric acid as the top-ranked bioproducts from carbohydrates, polyurethane from lipids, and thermoplastic extrusion co-feed from protein. The second step of the analysis determined that, when production of a hydrocarbon fuel is desired, the compositional profile of a strain is paramount in defining the biorefining setup that should be pursued. In summary, microalgae lipids should be sent to the production of hydrocarbon fuels if the ratio between neutral lipids and fermentable carbohydrates is higher than roughly 1, with carbohydrates and protein being converted to the higher-value products noted above. Finally, this result was corroborated through process simulations, which indicated superior economic and environmental metrics when strains are paired with suitable conversion pathways identified through MCDA based on their compositional profiles. The outcomes of this work provide clear, objective, guidelines for establishing the best biorefining approach for a large suite of biochemical compositions as a screening method prior to employing detailed process simulations alongside rigorous techno-economic and life-cycle assessments.
Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns
There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.
Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework
Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.
Multicriteria-Based Selection of Microalgae Biorefineries: Biomass Composition Defines the Most Suitable Product Portfolios
The supply of microalgae-derived biofuels and bioproducts will be vital in a global-scale bioeconomy. As the diversity of microalgae strains and their compositional plasticity may yield a wide array of products of market interest, the design of effective biorefineries is a central aspect in the path to making microalgae-based products available in the market. In this way, the conversion of microalgae biomass should be planned to employ mature technologies, while maximizing economic and environmental benefits obtained from a diverse product portfolio. This study applied sequential, hybrid Multicriteria Decision Analyses (MCDA) to aid the decision-making process of outlining the most suitable biorefining pathways for specific compositional profiles. For this, the methodology simultaneously considered multiple technical, economic, and environmental criteria, such as market aspects for the main algae-derived products, potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions provided by the biobased alternatives, and technology readiness level of conversion routes, among others. The framework was tested using productivity and compositional data for 13 high-productivity summer strains cultivated under varying nutrient availability. The analysis pointed to compositional profile being a key driver in defining the core biorefining strategy of algae biomass, with lipid-to-carbohydrate ratios higher than roughly 1 warranting the preferential processing of lipids into hydrocarbon fuels with the remainder of the algae biomass compounds being sent to higher-value applications, such as carboxylic acids and renewable thermoplastic substitutes. An in-depth process simulation, techno-economic assessment (TEA), and life-cycle analysis (LCA) effort was carried out as a closing step to corroborate the results stemming from the proposed framework. This study validates the use of MCDAs as a screening method prior to implementing more time-consuming analysis techniques and makes a compelling case for this approach as a product selection tool on a wide range of algae species, thus helping establish species-agnostic (but composition-driven) biorefineries.