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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Adverse Events and their Precursors in Aviation Using Multi-Class Multiple-Instance Learning

In recent years, there has been a rapid growth in the application of machine learning techniques that leverage aviation data collected from commercial airline operations to improve safety. Anomaly detection and predictive maintenance have been the main targets for machine learning applications. However, this paper focuses on the identification of precursors, which is a relatively newer application. Precursors are events correlated with adverse events that happen prior to the adverse event itself. Therefore, precursor mining provides many benefits including understanding the reasons behind a safety incident and the ability to identify signatures, which can be tracked throughout a flight to alert the operators of an potential upcoming adverse event. This work proposes using the multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework, a weakly supervised learning task, combined with a carefully designed Multi-Head Convolutional Neural Networks-Recurrent Neural Networks (MHCNN-RNN) architecture to predict different type of adverse events for any given flights and identify their precursors with little to no post-processing.Results obtained show that the MHCNN-RNN is able to accurately forecast high speed and high path angle events during the approach, and that it is also capable of determining the aircraft’s parameters that are correlated to these events. These parameters can be considered precursors to the events.

multiple instance learning↗

NASA NTRS2019

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Regression

We present a Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) algorithm for determining the salience of each item in each bag with respect to the bag's real-valued label. We use an alternating-projections constrained optimization approach to simultaneously learn a regression model and estimate all salience values. We evaluate this algorithm on a significant real-world problem, crop yield modeling, and demonstrate that it provides more extensive, intuitive, and stable salience models than Primary-Instance Regression, which selects a single relevant item from each bag.

regression↗

NASA NTRS2010

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Data and Its Application to Crop Yield Prediction

An algorithm was developed to generate crop yield predictions from orbital remote sensing observations, by analyzing thousands of pixels per county and the associated historical crop yield data for those counties. The algorithm determines which pixels contain which crop. Since each known yield value is associated with thousands of individual pixels, this is a multiple instance learning problem. Because individual crop growth is related to the resulting yield, this relationship has been leveraged to identify pixels that are individually related to corn, wheat, cotton, and soybean yield. Those that have the strongest relationship to a given crop s yield values are most likely to contain fields with that crop. Remote sensing time series data (a new observation every 8 days) was examined for each pixel, which contains information for that pixel s growth curve, peak greenness, and other relevant features. An alternating-projection (AP) technique was used to first estimate the "salience" of each pixel, with respect to the given target (crop yield), and then those estimates were used to build a regression model that relates input data (remote sensing observations) to the target. This is achieved by constructing an exemplar for each crop in each county that is a weighted average of all the pixels within the county; the pixels are weighted according to the salience values. The new regression model estimate then informs the next estimate of the salience values. By iterating between these two steps, the algorithm converges to a stable estimate of both the salience of each pixel and the regression model. The salience values indicate which pixels are most relevant to each crop under consideration.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Multiple-Instance Regression with Structured Data

We present a multiple-instance regression algorithm that models internal bag structure to identify the items most relevant to the bag labels. Multiple-instance regression (MIR) operates on a set of bags with real-valued labels, each containing a set of unlabeled items, in which the relevance of each item to its bag label is unknown. The goal is to predict the labels of new bags from their contents. Unlike previous MIR methods, MI-ClusterRegress can operate on bags that are structured in that they contain items drawn from a number of distinct (but unknown) distributions. MI-ClusterRegress simultaneously learns a model of the bag's internal structure, the relevance of each item, and a regression model that accurately predicts labels for new bags. We evaluated this approach on the challenging MIR problem of crop yield prediction from remote sensing data. MI-ClusterRegress provided predictions that were more accurate than those obtained with non-multiple-instance approaches or MIR methods that do not model the bag structure.

learning↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Autonomous Planetary Rover Control

The report discusses the: Decentralized Control of Markov Decision Processes. Study the complexity of decentralized control of Markov decision processes, and develop algorithms for finding optimal control policies. Scheduling Contract Algorithms. Develop an optimal method for scheduling runs of a contract anytime algorithm (one that takes the deadline as input) in situations where the deadline is unknown, multiple problem instances must be solved, and a multi-processor machine is available. Planetary Rover Control as a Markov Decision Process.Use the Markov decision process framework to formalize and solve problems in planetary rover control. Adaptive Peer Selection. Use reinforcement learning to maximize the expected down-load speed for a client in a peer-to-peer file sharing system.

Zilberstein, Shlomo↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Development of Two Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) for NASA's Earth Observation System (EOS)

In 2001, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics started the construction of a science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS) for processing data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) which will launch on the Aura platform in mid 2004. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is a contribution of the Netherlands Agency for Aerospace Programs (NIVR) in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) to the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission. It will continue the Total Ozone Monitoring System (TOMS) record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to ozone chemistry and climate. OMI measurements will be highly synergistic with the other instruments on the EOS Aura platform. The LTP previously developed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Data Processing System (MODAPS), which has been in full operations since the launches of the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts in December, 1999 and May, 2002 respectively. During that time, it has continually evolved to better support the needs of the MODIS team. We now run multiple instances of the system managing faster than real time reprocessings of the data as well as continuing forward processing. The new OMI Data Processing System (OMIDAPS) was adapted from the MODAPS. It will ingest raw data from the satellite ground station and process it to produce calibrated, geolocated higher level data products. These data products will be transmitted to the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (GDAAC) instance of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) for long term archive and distribution to the public. The OMIDAPS will also provide data distribution to the OMI Science Team for quality assessment, algorithm improvement, calibration, etc. We have taken advantage of lessons learned from the MODIS experience and software already developed for MODIS. We made some changes in the hardware system organization, database and software to adapt the system for OMI. We replaced the fundamental database system, Sybase, with an Open Source RDBMS called PostgreSQL, and based the entire OMIDAPS on a cluster of Linux based commodity computers rather than the large SGI servers that MODAPS uses. Rather than relying on a central I/O server host, the new system distributes its data archive among multiple server hosts in the cluster. OMI is also customizing the graphical user interfaces and reporting structure to more closely meet the needs of the OMI Science Team. Prior to 2003, simulated OMI data and the science algorithms were not ready for production testing. We initially constructed a prototype system and tested using a 25 year dataset of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) data. This prototype system provided a platform to support the adaptation of the algorithms for OMI, and provided reprocessing of the historical data aiding in its analysis. In a recent reanalysis of the TOMS data, the OMIDAPS processed 108,000 full orbits of data through 4 processing steps per orbit, producing about 800,000 files (400 GiB) of level 2 and greater data files. More recently we have installed two instances of the OMIDAPS for integration and testing of OM1 science processes as they get delivered from the Science Team. A Test instance of the OMIDAPS has also supported a series of "Interface Confidence Tests" (ICTs) and End-to-End Ground System tests to ensure the launch readiness of the system. This paper will discuss the high-level hardware, software, and database organization of the OMIDAPS and how it builds on the MODAPS heritage system. It will also provide an overview of the testing and implementation of the production OMIDAPS.

Tilmes, Curt↗

NASA NTRS1992

SkICAT: A cataloging and analysis tool for wide field imaging surveys

We describe an integrated system, SkICAT (Sky Image Cataloging and Analysis Tool), for the automated reduction and analysis of the Palomar Observatory-ST ScI Digitized Sky Survey. The Survey will consist of the complete digitization of the photographic Second Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS-II) in three bands, comprising nearly three Terabytes of pixel data. SkICAT applies a combination of existing packages, including FOCAS for basic image detection and measurement and SAS for database management, as well as custom software, to the task of managing this wealth of data. One of the most novel aspects of the system is its method of object classification. Using state-of-theart machine learning classification techniques (GID3* and O-BTree), we have developed a powerful method for automatically distinguishing point sources from non-point sources and artifacts, achieving comparably accurate discrimination a full magnitude fainter than in previous Schmidt plate surveys. The learning algorithms produce decision trees for classification by examining instances of objects classified by eye on both plate and higher quality CCD data. The same techniques will be applied to perform higher-level object classification (e.g., of galaxy morphology) in the near future. Another key feature of the system is the facility to integrate the catalogs from multiple plates (and portions thereof) to construct a single catalog of uniform calibration and quality down to the faintest limits of the survey. SkICAT also provides a variety of data analysis and exploration tools for the scientific utilization of the resulting catalogs. We include initial results of applying this system to measure the counts and distribution of galaxies in two bands down to Bj is approximately 21 mag over an approximate 70 square degree multi-plate field from POSS-II. SkICAT is constructed in a modular and general fashion and should be readily adaptable to other large-scale imaging surveys.

Weir, N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lessons Learned From Developing Three Generations of Remote Sensing Science Data Processing Systems

The Biospheric Information Systems Branch at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center has developed three generations of Science Investigator-led Processing Systems for use with various remote sensing instruments. The first system is used for data from the MODIS instruments flown on NASA s Earth Observing Systems @OS) Terra and Aqua Spacecraft launched in 1999 and 2002 respectively. The second generation is for the Ozone Measuring Instrument flying on the EOS Aura spacecraft launched in 2004. We are now developing a third generation of the system for evaluation science data processing for the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) to be flown by the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) in 2006. The initial system was based on large scale proprietary hardware, operating and database systems. The current OMI system and the OMPS system being developed are based on commodity hardware, the LINUX Operating System and on PostgreSQL, an Open Source RDBMS. The new system distributes its data archive across multiple server hosts and processes jobs on multiple processor boxes. We have created several instances of this system, including one for operational processing, one for testing and reprocessing and one for applications development and scientific analysis. Prior to receiving the first data from OMI we applied the system to reprocessing information from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments flown from 1978 until now. The system was able to process 25 years (108,000 orbits) of data and produce 800,000 files (400 GiB) of level 2 and level 3 products in less than a week. We will describe the lessons we have learned and tradeoffs between system design, hardware, operating systems, operational staffing, user support and operational procedures. During each generational phase, the system has become more generic and reusable. While the system is not currently shrink wrapped we believe it is to the point where it could be readily adopted, with substantial cost savings, for other similar tasks.

Tilmes, Curt↗

NASA NTRS1997

Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

VanSelst, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2001

Learning Sequences of Actions in Collectives of Autonomous Agents

In this paper we focus on the problem of designing a collective of autonomous agents that individually learn sequences of actions such that the resultant sequence of joint actions achieves a predetermined global objective. We are particularly interested in instances of this problem where centralized control is either impossible or impractical. For single agent systems in similar domains, machine learning methods (e.g., reinforcement learners) have been successfully used. However, applying such solutions directly to multi-agent systems often proves problematic, as agents may work at cross-purposes, or have difficulty in evaluating their contribution to achievement of the global objective, or both. Accordingly, the crucial design step in multiagent systems centers on determining the private objectives of each agent so that as the agents strive for those objectives, the system reaches a good global solution. In this work we consider a version of this problem involving multiple autonomous agents in a grid world. We use concepts from collective intelligence to design goals for the agents that are 'aligned' with the global goal, and are 'learnable' in that agents can readily see how their behavior affects their utility. We show that reinforcement learning agents using those goals outperform both 'natural' extensions of single agent algorithms and global reinforcement, learning solutions based on 'team games'.

Turner, Kagan↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reuse metrics and measurement: A framework

The lessons learned and experience gleaned are described by those who have started to implement the reuse metrics and measurement framework used in controlling the development of common avionics and software for its affiliated aircraft programs. The framework was developed to permit the measurement of the long term cost/benefits resulting from the creation and use of Reusable Software Objects (RSOs). The framework also monitors the efficiency and effectiveness of the Software Reuse Library (SRL). The metrics and measurement framework is defined which was established to allow some determinations and findings to be made relative to software reuse. Seven criteria are discussed which were used to guide the establishment of the proposed reuse framework. Object recapture and creation metrics are explained along with their normalized use in effort, productivity, and quality determination. A single and multiple reuse instance version of a popular cost model is presented which uses these metrics and the measurement scheme proposed to predict the software effort and duration under various reuse assumptions. Studies in using this model to predict actuals taken from the RCI data base of over 1000 completed projects is discussed.

Reifer, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Key Predictors of Airport Runway Configurations Using Learning Algorithms

Advanced traffic flow management automation will need accurate predictions of airport runway configurations. Terminal area weather and traffic demand are generally considered to be the most significant factors in predicting runway configuration. Weather information is forecasted across multiple features, including wind direction, wind speed, gusts, cloud ceilings, visibility, temperature, and precipitation, among many others. We use machine learning techniques on historical weather and runway data to determine weather features that correlate well with runway configurations. We analyze the predictive capability of weather features using different learning models trained on data from four major U.S. airports: Atlanta (ATL), Washington – Dulles (IAD), New York – Kennedy (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO). Wind direction alone is strongly correlated with runway configurations above all other examined factors, as expected. This correlation is the most significant component of the ~80% prediction accuracy in selecting between the two most frequently used runway configurations. However, individual airports show variations on how well the runway configuration decisions correlate with wind direction. While wind direction was identified as the most significant indicator of configuration decisions in ATL, IAD, and JFK, it did not emerge as such at SFO. Traffic demand was not found to be a strong factor in predicting runway configurations at any of the airports analyzed. In rare instances, when high demand cannot be accommodated within the current configuration, temporary changes are likely to be attributable to demand. However, these occurrences are so limited in number that their overall effect is not sufficient to consider traffic demand as a major indicator of runway configuration at the airports analyzed.

Bilimoria, Karl D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Census of Severe Weather as Observed From Aqua: Visible/IR and Passive-Microwave Perspectives of Severe Convection

Severe weather phenomena represent the extreme upper end of the spectrum of convection and precipitation and tend to be highly localized and relatively rare compared to the rest of the distribution, but they can cause damage and loss disproportionate to their scale and frequency. Fortunately, severe convection exhibits distinct signatures in spaceborne remote-sensing datasets (e.g. overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR, or brightness temperature depressions in passive-microwave imagery). Leveraging these signatures individually has become a long-established practice to detect, analyze and establish climatologies of severe thunderstorms, especially in instances where traditional ground-based data may be unavailable. Spaceborne visible/IR and passive-microwave approaches are not without their pitfalls, however: passive-microwave channels have large footprints and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. Visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. To address this, we investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together and assess the extent to which these datasets can be combined to improve severe thunderstorm detection. We pair AMSR-E and MODIS signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis in six different geographical regimes throughout the Aqua domain. We present a census of potentially severe convective storms and their environments as seen by multiple instruments simultaneously, investigating how MODIS and AMSR-E signatures may be used together to diagnose storm properties and processes, and how the interrelationships between the signatures varies seasonally and geographically. Using statistical machine learning analysis, we aim to quantify the optimal MODIS and AMSR-E parameter sets for discriminating severe from non-severe storm cells and assess what improvement (if any) in detection results from combining the IR, visible, and microwave datasets.

Sarah Bang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining Artifacts from GLOBE Program Research Symposia & Using Network Analysis Techniques to Characterize Students’ Authentic STEM Investigations

For the past several years, the GLOBE Program's International Virtual Science Symposia (IVSS) and Student Research Symposia (SRS) have provided opportunities for U.S. and international students to present their Earth science research investigations to the GLOBE community through online or in-person events. This presentation will share the techniques and findings of an evaluation study that used student posters and written reports to characterize their research investigations through multiple lenses and frameworks. The study began with a list of characteristics drawn from a literature review, an analysis of sample projects, and several reviews by expert stakeholders and scientists, which comprehensively covered diverse relevant frameworks including citizen science, student STEM learning through authentic experiences, and The GLOBE Program model. Once applied to 207 student projects, this list of codes revealed the frequency and prevalence of various qualities and experiences represented by GLOBE student research investigations. An innovative application of social network analysis techniques to the coded dataset revealed frequently cooccurring characteristics. This networking approach identified and conceptually mapped several "clusters" of characteristics that typified student projects, empirically based on the submitted projects themselves. The basic quantitative investigation of frequencies indicates the extent to which various characteristics are present in - or absent from - GLOBE SRS and IVSS projects, while the network analysis provides a descriptive framework for typifying projects. Ultimately, the descriptive framework fostered a suite of assessment tools to help The GLOBE Program's staff, scientists, and research project judges understand the diversity of student research projects. GLOBE can use these tools to identify and respond to areas of need; for instance, the descriptive framework illustrates the potential for further education and training resources related to data analysis, interpretation of data, and credibility of scientific claims. This presentation will share the novel utilization of network analysis techniques to holistically assess and react to student research contributions.

Ann Martin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilization of Machine Learning Techniques for Managing the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Constellation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). The TDRS constellation consists of multiple geosynchronous communication relay satellites located around the equator so they can provide continual coverage of any mission in low earth orbit. The TDRS are located primarily in three oceanic regions around the earth. NASA’s White Sands Complex provides the ground communication support for TDRS located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Another TDRS ground station in Guam supports the TDRS over the Indian Ocean. With these satellites the TDRS network can provide continuous coverage of satellites in low-earth orbit. The NASA Space Network (SN) project office at GSFC manages the constellation of spacecraft. Major customers of the TDRS constellation include, but are not limited to, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope. The TDRS constellation has three generations of satellites and has been active for over 30 years providing reliable communication links between customer satellites and corresponding ground stations. However, one of the major concerns for TDRS, and in any space mission, is to ensure the health and safety of the spacecraft. Generally, engineers use telemetry data to monitor and analyze the performance and state of health of the spacecraft. Telemetry data contains hundreds of parameters that monitor each important component in the spacecraft, which can be utilized to recognize and characterize the behavior of the spacecraft. Each parameter contains considerable information to represent time-dependent properties of each spacecraft subsystem and component. During the entire life of a TDRS spacecraft, thousands of gigabytes of telemetry data are transmitted in real-time from the spacecraft to the ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and recorded as historical data sets for engineers to process and analyze the events that occurred on-orbit. These parameters contain the function of multiple spacecraft subsystems, such as the attitude control system (ACS), Thermal, Electrical Power Subsystem (EPS), etc. . The first and second generations have exceeded their required lifetime and NASA is keen to manage these spacecrafts carefully in order to maximize the remaining life using the spacecraft telemetry. The challenge is to know when the risk of losing a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit exceeds the benefit of continued operations for customer support. In the TDRS fleet, the EPS is the most critical subsystem related to spacecraft operations. Failure of the EPS would strand a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. Since EPS provides power to the spacecraft, component failures ultimately lead to the inability to support the spacecraft loads and the communications payload. For instance, TDRS-8 has several anomalies in EPS including the Bus Voltage Limiter (BVL) shunt current, solar array loss of circuits, and failed battery cells. Any of these anomalies can cause critical issues to the spacecraft. Therefore, developing a system to analyze and perform early detection of a potential anomaly is an important issue in telemetry data analysis. In recent years, Telemetry Mining (TM) has been proposed to process telemetry data by using Data Mining (DM) techniques such as classification, clustering, regression and anomaly detection. Anomaly detection, also known as outlier detection, has been widely used in many data mining areas such as remote sensing, medical data processing and digital image processing. The goal of anomaly detection is to detect abnormal data, which contains a relatively low probability of occurrence among the entire data set. Early detection of anomalies is one of the most significant issues in managing the spacecraft configuration. If anomalies can be detected early enough, then the redundant resources can be used to extend the life of the operational spacecraft. We present an unsupervised anomaly detection method to process the EPS data extracted from TDRS-8. This is different from traditional analytical methods, which use telemetry data to illustrate behavior and physical meaning of each spacecraft component. TM connects multiple parameters as a vector and then conducts data analysis on this high dimension telemetry vector. This method is looking at the properties of a high dimensional vector that is able to consider the relationship between different parameters in the anomaly detection problem. This kind of method performs much better than the traditional limit checking method. In addition, we propose a new approach of real-time anomaly detection to process telemetry data in real-time, which can then be applied to spacecraft monitoring with high reliability, low cost and high accuracy.

Machine Learning (ML)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Diagnostics for Megahertz Imaging of Mixing, Fuel Spray, and Combustion Processes for Rotating Detonation Combustors

Recent advancements in megahertz rate, high-power, burst-mode laser technology are leveraged to perform and explore imaging measurements that spatially and temporally resolve the mixing, combustion, and detonation flow field in two laboratory-scale rotating detonation combustors (RDCs). In a non-premixed annular RDC, multiple imaging diagnostics are explored to investigate gaseous and liquid injector behavior, the detonation wave structure, and the propellant refill. In one instance, OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (OH-PLIF) imaging is performed up to a 2 MHz repetition rate to track the combustion products and reaction zone locations. In the same annular RDC, a single liquid fuel jet is injected, and laser-based 355-nm imaging of the fuel spray is performed up to a 1 MHz repetition rate. For this configuration, the annular RDC is used as a detonation driver to impose periodic detonation waves to interact with the fuel spray. Moreover, in this annular RDC, a range of tracer-based laser imaging measurements are explored to time-resolve the unsteady oxidizer air recovery and refill process. In a non-premixed linear RDC, planar imaging measurements of the fuel mixing are performed up to a 200 kHz repetition rate using PLIF of a tracer in the fuel supply. The fuel mixing imaging helps explain the origin of the observed pre and post wave burning, detonation structure, and enables quantifying injector recovery timescales. This paper will provide a high-level broad survey of diagnostics applied in these RDCs, lessons learned, and interesting observations.

Combustion↗