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Natural Systems Data Package for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington
This document summarizes the available information regarding the natural system (vadose zone and saturated zone) at the active trenches of the 200 West Area and 200 East Area Low-Level Burial Grounds (LLBGs). This information is relevant for developing the natural system fate and transport model for the update of the active trenches performance assessment. This document presents a description of the major features, events, and processes of the natural system at the active trenches of the 200 West Area and 200 East Area LLBGs that involves the geologic features or framework, and the vadose zone and groundwater flow and transport system. The description of the geologic features includes the following items: geologic setting, major structural features, major hydrostratigraphic units, and geologic framework. The discussion concerning vadose zone flow and transport at the active trenches of the 200 West Area and 200 East Area LLBGs includes the following topics: vadose zone features, events, and processes relevant to the development of the vadose zone conceptual model; hydrogeologic units and conditions; factors affecting moisture movement; and flow and transport properties of major units. The discussion concerning the groundwater flow and transport system in the vicinity of the active trenches of the 200 West Area and 200 East Area LLBGs includes the following topics: saturated zone features, events, and processes relevant to the saturated zone conceptual model; hydrogeologic units; groundwater flow conditions; and flow and transport properties.
Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change
Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.
Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region
The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.
A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change
Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.
Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems: Natural and Artificial Ecosystems
The scientists supported by the NASA sponsored Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) program have played a major role in creating a Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) section devoted to the development of bioregenerative life support for use in space. The series of 22 papers were sponsored by Subcommission F.4. The papers deal with many of the diverse aspects of life support, and with outgrowth technologies that may have commercial applications in fields such as biotechnology and bioengineering. Papers from researchers in France, Canada, Japan and the USSR are also presented.
Designing 1D multiheme peptide amphiphile assemblies reminiscent of natural systems
We discuss protein assemblies that bind and organize ordered arrays of cofactors yield function structures. Multiheme assemblies found in nature yield electronically conductivity 1D nanoscale fibers and are employed in anaerobic respiration. To understand the fundamental characteristics of these organized arrays, the design of peptide amphiphiles that assemble into 1D nanostructures and yield metalloporphyrin binding sites is presented. One challenge with this class of peptide amphiphiles is identifying the correct sequence composition for high affinity binding with high heme density. Here, the peptide c16-AH(Kx)n-CO 2 H is explored to identify the impact of sequence length (n) and amino acid identity (x = L, I, or F) on binding affinity and midpoint potential. When n = 2, the peptide assembly yields the greatest affinity. The resulting nanoscale assemblies yield ordered arrays of the redox active molecule heme and have potential utility in the development of supramolecular bioelectronic materials useful in sensing as well as the development of enzymatic materials.
/U,B,K/ coordinates - A natural system for studying magnetospheric convection
The formulation of the magnetospheric convection problem involves a coordinate system consisting of the electric potential, the magnetic field intensity, and the modified longitudinal invariant. The mapping is extended to include all particles and not just those mirroring in the magnetic equator. Equations of motion for the particle mirror points in this representation are presented. The analysis results in a natural division of the magnetosphere into accelerator and dynamo regions and use of the coordinate system permits trajectory-dependent effects to be distinguished from source- or sink-dependent effects. The representation is illustrated by application to the analysis of the nose structure protons observed by Smith and Hoffman (1974).
The solubility and speciation of REE phosphate endmembers (CePO 4 and YPO 4 ) in Cl-rich aqueous fluids from 350 to 450 °C and implications for natural systems
The rare earth elements (REE) are important metals used increasingly in advanced technologies. Within the crust, the elements Ce and Y are commonly more abundant compared to other lanthanides and comprise important end-member constituents of REE-bearing minerals. Specifically, Ce is part of the light (L) REE which have larger ionic radii than the heavy (H) REE, which are grouped together with Y. These differences in ionic radius can lead to important physico-chemical trends within the lanthanide group. Despite a recent increase in experimental and thermodynamic data for the REE at high temperature and pressure, there is still a significant lack of these data at supercritical conditions. In this study we conducted batch-type experiments to measure the solubility of REE phosphates (CePO 4 and YPO 4 ) at varying starting pH (1.5–10), and salinity (0.01–1.4 mol/kg NaCl) at 350 and P sat , and from 400 to 450 °C at 700 bar. Results show that the solubility of Ce (33–0.14 ppb) is generally higher than Y (13–0.13 ppb) and that Ce complexes more strongly with both chloride and hydroxyl ligands compared to Y. The solubilities of both REE phosphates are highly pH-dependent and, to a lesser extent, depend on salinity at the studied conditions. The solubility data from this study were implemented into the GEMSFITS program to optimize the thermodynamic properties of Ce and Y hydroxyl and chloride species. The updated standard partial molal Gibbs energies of formation (Δ f G 0 T,P ) are used within the experimental temperature and pressure range to accurately predict the CePO 4 and YPO 4 solubility and Ce and Y speciation behavior. Based on the updated thermodynamic properties we also provide formation constants (log β n Cl,OH ) for Ce and Y hydroxyl and chloride species. Updated thermodynamic properties are applied to model REE-apatite dissolution and REE mobility based on the Pea Ridge iron oxide apatite deposit in Missouri, USA. The apatite dissolution model replicates natural observations including the replacement of monazite and xenotime after apatite and is an example of the utility of the new thermodynamic constants applied to supercritical crustal fluids. Furthermore, the findings of this study advance the predictive capabilities of geochemical models, our understanding of the behavior of individual REE, and permit modeling the overarching fractionation trends between LREE and HREE in supercritical crustal fluids.
Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems
This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.
Thermal coefficients of technology assimilation by natural systems
Estimates of thermal coefficients of the rates of technology assimilation processes was made. Consideration of such processes as vegetation and soil recovery and pollution assimilation indicates that these processes proceed ten to several hundred times more slowly in earth's cold regions than in temperate regions. It was suggested that these differential assimilation rates are important data in planning for technological expansion in Arctic regions.
The nature and barium partitioning between immiscible melts - A comparison of experimental and natural systems with reference to lunar granite petrogenesis
Elemental partitioning between immiscible melts has been studied using experimental liquid-liquid Kds and those determined by analysis of immiscible glasses in basalt mesostases in order to investigate lunar granite petrogenesis. Experimental data show that Ba is partitioned into the basic immiscible melt, while probe analysis results show that Ba is partitioned into the granitic immiscible melt. It is concluded that lunar granite of significant size can only occur in a plutonic or deep hypabyssal environment.
Geochemical Processes in Engineered Natural Systems Influencing Subsurface Flow and Produced Water Chemical Composition
Slides from seminar to the Texas Water Energy Institute on July 30, 2021
A natural coordinate system for nonlinear systems
A natural coordinate system for nonlinear systems of the form x = f(x) + g(x)u is discussed where x is a element of R(N), u is an element of R, and f and g are analytic, vector-valued functions on R(N). It is shown that in these coordinates the equation becomes a system with only feedback paths (no feedforwards), if feedback linearizability conditions are satisfied.
Valuing intra-day coordination of electric power and natural gas system operations
Not Available
Benefit assessment of solar-augmented natural gas systems
Report details how solar-energy-augmented system can reduce natural gas consumption by 40% to 70%. Applications discussed include: domestic hot water system, solar-assisted gas heat pumps, direct heating from storage tank. Industrial uses, solar-assisted appliances, and economic factors are discussed.
Linear Approximation Line Pack Model for Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Systems OPF
With the increasing installation of renewable energy electricity generation capacity, the penetration of natural gas fired generation is also substantailly increasing in power systems due to their fast response capability to mitigate system variability and uncertainty. The dependencies between the electricity system and the natural gas system are becoming more important to maintain the reliability of both systems. In integrated electricity and natural gas systems (IEGSs) operations, the nonlinearity of the natural gas system brings challenges to the system operators. In this paper, the IEGSs optimal power flow (OPF) model is proposed that includes the line pack of the gas system via linear approximation. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can obtain optimal solutions efficiently that are comparable in accuracy as the nonlinear line pack model.
Laser system for natural gas detection. Phase 1: Laboratory feasibility studies
This project demonstrated the feasibility of using laser remote sensing technology as a tool for leak survey work in natural gas distribution systems. A laboratory device was assembled using a pair of helium neon (HeNe) lasers to measure methane. One HeNe laser emits radiation at a wavelength of 3.3922 micrometers, which corresponds to a strong absorption feature of methane, while the other emits radiation at a wavelength of 3.3911 micrometers, which corresponds to a weak absorption by methane. As a particular area is scanned for leaks, the laser is pointed at convenient topographic targets within its operating range, about 25 m. A portion of the backscattered radiation is collected by a receiver and focused onto an indium antimonide (InSb) photodetector, cooled to 77K. Methane concentrations were determined from the differential absorption at the two wavelengths for the backscattered radiation.