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At least 19 records

Natural variations in the geomagnetically trapped electron population

Temporal variations in the trapped natural electron flux intensities and energy spectra are discussed and demonstrated using recent satellite data. These data are intended to acquaint the space systems engineer with the types of natural variations that may be encountered during a mission and to augment the models of the electron environment currently being used in space system design and orbit selection. An understanding of the temporal variations which may be encountered should prove helpful. Some of the variations demonstrated here which are not widely known include: (1) addition of very energetic electrons to the outer zone during moderate magnetic storms: (2) addition of energetic electrons to the inner zone during major magnetic storms; (3) inversions in the outer zone electron energy spectrum during the decay phase of a storm injection event and (4) occasional formation of multiple maxima in the flux vs altitude profile of moderately energetic electrons.

Vampola, A. L.↗

Optimal Aerosol Parameterization for Remote Sensing Retrievals

We have developed a new algorithm for the retrieval of aerosol and gases from SAGE It1 solar transmission measurements. This algorithm improves upon the NASA operational algorithm in several key aspects, including solving the problem non-linearly and incorporating a new methodology for separating the contribution of aerosols and gases. In order to extract aerosol information we have built a huge database of aerosol models for both stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols, and polar stratospheric cloud particles. This set of models allows us to calculate a vast range of possible extinction spectra for aerosols. and from these, derive a set of eigenvectors which then provide the basis set used in our inversion algorithm. Our aerosol algorithm and retrievals are described in several articles (listed in References Section) published under this grant. In particular they allow us to analyze the spectral properties of aerosols and PSCs and ultimately derive their microphysical properties. We have found some considerable differences between our spectra and the ones derived from the SAGE III operational algorithm. These are interesting as they provide an independent check on the validity of published aerosol data and, in particular, on their associated uncertainties. In order to understand these differences, we are assembling independent aerosol data from other sources with which to make comparisons. We have carried out extensive comparisons of our ozone retrievals with both SAGE III and independent lidar, ozonesonde, and satellite measurements (Polyakov et al., 2004). These show very good agreement throughout the stratosphere and help to quantify differences which can be attributed to natural variation in ozone versus that produced by algorithmic differences. In the mid - upper stratosphere, agreement with independent data was generally within 5 - 20%. but in the lower stratosphere the differences were considerably larger. We believe that a large proportion of this discrepancy in the lower stratosphere is attributable to natural variation, and is also seen in comparisons between lidar and ozonesonde measurements. NO2 profiles obtained with our algorithm were compared to those obtained through the SAGE III operational algorithm and exhibited differences of 20 - 40%. Our retrieved profiles agree with the HALOE NO2 measurements significantly better than those of the operational retrieval. In other work (described below), we are extending our aerosol retrievals into the infrared regime and plan to perform retrievals from combined uv-visible-infrared spectra. This work will allow us to use the spectra to derive the size and composition of aerosols, and we plan to employ our algorithms in the analysis of PSC spectra. We are presently also developing a limb-scattering algorithm to retrieve aerosol data from limb measurements of solar scattered radiation.

Newchurch, Michael J.↗

Space Shuttle Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor nozzle natural frequency variations with burn time

The effects of erosion and thermal degradation on the Space Shuttle Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle's structural dynamic characteristics were analytically evaluated. Also considered was stiffening of the structure due to internal pressurization. A detailed NASTRAN finite element model of the nozzle was developed and used to evaluate the influence of these effects at several discrete times during motor burn. Methods were developed for treating erosion and thermal degradation, and a procedure was developed to account for internal pressure stiffening using differential stiffness matrix techniques. Results were verified using static firing test accelerometer data. Fast Fourier Transform and Maximum Entropy Method techniques were applied to the data to generate waterfall plots which track modal frequencies with burn time. Results indicate that the lower frequency nozzle 'vectoring' modes are only slightly affected by erosion, thermal effects and internal pressurization. The higher frequency shell modes of the nozzle are, however, significantly reduced.

Lui, C. Y.↗

The cryptoendolithic microbial environment in the Antarctic cold desert: temperature variations in nature

In the Antarctic cold desert, cryptoendolithic microorganisms live under the surface of porous sandstone rocks. During the austral summer, the environment of the near-surface rock layers colonized by organisms is characterized by two kinds of temperature oscillations, both occurring across the freezing point. Low-frequency (diurnal) and large-amplitude (up to about 20 degrees C) oscillations on the sunlit surface of rocks result in a daily freeze-thaw cycle. This is a result of the diurnal changes in the sun altitude and angle with respect to the rock surface. The biological effect of this oscillation is the regulation of the onset and cessation of metabolic activity. The high-frequency (few minutes) oscillations occur only under certain weather conditions (sunny days with light winds) and are superimposed on the low-frequency oscillations. They are caused by the cooling effect of wind gusts on rock surfaces that are much warmer than ambient air temperatures. High-frequency oscillations result in a rapid freeze-thaw cycle on the surface, which, however, does not reach the microbial zone. These high-frequency freeze-thaw oscillations are probably the cause of the abiotic nature of the rock surface. Both oscillations seem to have an effect on rock weathering.

Cold Climate↗

Seasonal- and Beta-Angle-Dependent Latitude Bias Variations in Natural Decays

Prior work has demonstrated pronounced statistical clustering of natural decays of medium-to-high-inclination orbital objects peaking approximately 30 degrees in Argument of Latitude ahead of nodal crossings. This effect is caused by the physical bulge in the Earth and the overlying atmosphere, that cyclically modifies effective altitude (and therefore density) faster than the trajectory's decay itself. While prior work has averaged seasonal and RAAN effects over all non-uniform atmosphere possibilities to support long-term characterization of the clustering of final entries in generating a pre-mission Expectation of Casualty, the current study characterizes seasonal and beta angle effects as potential influences on the near-term statistical risks of specific tactical decay scenarios, relative to the average. Such effects on the density profile along an orbit may be important considerations in any scenario where small orbital adjustments are used to optimize the timing and location of final entry trajectories. I.E., two identical spacecraft entering in different seasons and/or beta angles may have different minimum-risk scenarios for identical control capabilities and space weather conditions. Further, the early heating history of shallow trajectories is explored, examining the influence of dramatically different density profiles over the final orbit as the spacecraft either skims over or dives into the atmosphere.

Bacon, John B.↗

Short- and Medium-term Atmospheric Effects of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. In particular, the humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone from chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. These anthropogenic effects on ozone are most important in polar regions and have been significant since the 1970s. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the short- and medium-term (days to a few months) influences of solar proton events between 1963 and 2005 on stratospheric ozone. The four largest events in the past 45 years (August 1972; October 1989; July 2000; and October-November 2003) caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen- containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The hydrogen-containing compounds have very short lifetimes and lasted for only a few days (typically the duration of the solar proton event). On the other hand, the nitrogen-containing compounds lasted much longer, especially in the Winter. The nitrogen oxides were predicted to increase substantially due to these solar events and led to mid- to upper polar stratospheric ozone decreases of over 20%. These WACCM results generally agreed with satellite measurements. Both WACCM and measurements showed enhancements of nitric acid, dinitrogen pentoxide, and chlorine nitrate, which were indirectly caused by these solar events. Solar proton events were shown to cause a significant change in the polar stratosphere and need to be considered in understanding variations during years of strong solar activity.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated to last for up to five months past the largest events. However, the computed total column ozone and stratospheric temperature changes connected with the solar events were not found to be statistically significant. Thus, solar proton events do not likely contribute significantly to measured total column ozone fluctuations and stratospheric temperature changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Transport and Mixing in the Stratosphere and Troposphere

Long-term changes in the composition of the atmosphere are known to have significant effects on atmospheric chemistry and stratospheric ozone. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases have the potential to change the global climate in the middle and upper atmospheres, as well as in the troposphere. Volcanic eruptions, El Nino events, and other natural variations can also cause changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Whether the causes are natural or manmade, changes in the global climate system can have impacts on human society. In order to understand and predict the consequences of these changes, and of control measures such as the Montreal Protocol, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions between radiation, chemistry, and dynamics in the atmosphere. Much of the uncertainty in our understanding of atmospheric processes comes from an incomplete understanding of atmospheric transport. A complete and self-consistent model of transport requires not only an understanding of trace-species transport, but also the transport of dynamically active quantities such as heat and potential vorticity. Therefore, the goal of the proposed research is to better understand large-scale transport and mixing processes in the middle atmosphere and troposphere.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

Theories of Simplification and Scaling of Spatially Distributed Processes

The problem of scaling is at the heart of ecological theory, the essence of understanding and of the development of a predictive capability. The description of any system depends on the spatial, temporal, and organizational perspective chosen; hence it is essential to understand not only how patterns and dynamics vary with scale, but also how patterns at one scale are manifestations of processes operating at other scales. Evolution has shaped the characteristics of species in ways that result in scale displacement: Each species experiences the environment at its own unique set of spatial and temporal scales and interfaces the biota through unique assemblages of phenotypes. In this way, coexistence becomes possible, and biodiversity is enhanced. By averaging over space, time, and biological interactions, a genotype filters variation at fine scales and selects the arena in which it will face the vicissitudes of nature. Variation at finer scales is then noise, of minor importance to the survival and dynamics of the species, and consequently of minor importance in any attempt at description. In attempting to model ecological interactions in space, contributors throughout this book have struggled with a trade-off between simplification and "realistic" complexity and detail. Although the challenge of simplification is widely recognized in ecology, less appreciated is the intertwining of scaling questions and scaling laws with the process of simplification. In the context of this chapter simplification will in general mean the use of spatial or ensemble means and low-order moments to capture more detailed interactions by integrating over given areas. In this way, one can derive descriptions of the system at different spatial scales, which provides the essentials for the extraction of scaling laws by examination of how system properties vary with scale.

Levin, Simon A.↗

Characterization and Analysis of Phoca Vitulina, Zalophus Californianus and Mirounga Angustirostris Vibrissae

Vibrissae of Phoca Vitulina (harbor seal) and Mirounga Angustirostris (elephant seal) possess undulations along their length. Harbor seal vibrissae have shown potential to reduce vortex induced vibrations and reduce drag compared to cylinders and ellipses. The exact geometry of the whiskers has not been well documented and the parameters that are responsible for the reduction in drag and vortex induced vibrations have not been characterized. Samples of six harbor seal vibrissae, six elephant seal vibrissae and six California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) vibrissae were collected from the Marine Mammal Center in California. The objectives of this study were to (1) Compare measurement techniques for digitizing and extracting parameters of the seal whiskers for the PeTaL (Periodic Table of Life) database. CT scanning, microscopy and 3D scanning techniques were compared. (2) Compare aerodynamic characteristics of a representative harbor seal whisker, elephant seal whisker, California sea lion whisker and ellipse at Re = 12000 and Re = 23000 based on major axis and free stream velocity. The data (in appendices) is available to compare CFD models or for further experimental validation, (3) Show close up images of whiskers and look for surface roughness effects. Variations in the seven parameters of the seal whisker were observed that may either be a feature of the vibration reduction mechanism or a result of natural variation. It is hypothesized that six parameters are sufficient to characterize seal whiskers based on analytic fitting. The drag coefficient of harbor seal whiskers examined in this study were found to be 25 percent lower than that of an ellipse with comparable major and minor axis lengths at Reynolds number of 12000. The dissipation length scale was found to be larger for seal whiskers. Potential applications of seal whisker morphology for aerospace are discussed. Roughness is not thought to play a factor in seal hydrodynamics.

Shyam, Vikram↗

A Proposal for an Integrated Geophysical Strategy to "Follow the Water" on Mars

The search for subsurface water has become a primary focus of Mars exploration. Its abundance and distribution (both as ground ice and groundwater) have important implications for understanding the geologic, hydrologic, and climatic evolution of the planet; the potential origin and continued survival of life; and the accessibility of a critical in situ resource for sustaining future human explorers. For these reasons, a principal goal of the Mars science, astrobiology, and the HEDS programs is to determine the 3-D distribution and state of subsurface H2O, at a resolution sufficient to permit reaching any desired volatile target by drilling. The three targets most often discussed are: groundwater, massive deposits of near-surface ground ice (associated with the ponded discharge of the outflow channels or the relic of a former ocean), and ice-saturated frozen ground. Based on the present best estimates of mean annual surface temperature, crustal thermal conductivity, geothermal heat flow, and groundwater freezing temperature, the mean thickness of frozen ground on Mars is expected to vary from approx. = 2.5 - 5 km at the equator to approx. = 6.5 - 13 km at the poles. However, natural variations in both crustal heat flow and thermal conductivity are likely to result in significant local departures from these predicted values. The recent discovery of "young" fluvial-like features, emanating from the slopes of local scarps, raises the possibility that liquid water may also exist episodically at shallow (approx. = 100 - 500 m) depth; however, the true nature and absolute age of these features remains highly uncertain. Although the belief that Mars is water-rich is supported by a wide variety geologic evidence, our ignorance about the heterogeneous nature and thermal evolution of the planet's crust effectively precludes geomorphic or theoretical attempts to quantitatively assess the current geographic and subsurface vertical distribution of ground ice and groundwater . For this reason, any exploration activity (such as drilling) whose success is contingent on the presence of subsurface water, must be preceded by a comprehensive high-resolution geophysical survey capable of assessing whether local reservoirs of water and ice actually exist. Terrestrial experience has demonstrated that the accurate identification of such targets is likely to require the application of multiple geophysical techniques. In this abstract we propose an integrated strategy for the geophysical exploration of Mars that we believe represents the fastest, most cost-effect, and technically capable approach to identifying the state and distribution of subsurface water. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Clifford, S. M.↗

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Chang, C.-Y.↗

Human and Natural Influences on the Changing Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

Kiang, Richard K.↗