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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Inference of sea surface temperature, near surface wind, and atmospheric water by Fourier analysis of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer data

The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer measures thermal microwave emission from the earth in both polarizations at wavelengths of 0.8, 1.4, 1.7, 2.8 and 4.6 cm. Similar instruments were launched on Nimbus 7 and Seasat. Both spatial resolution on the earth and relative sensitivity to different geophysical parameters change with wavelength. Therefore, spatial Fourier components of geophysical parameters are inferred from the corresponding Fourier components of the radiometer measurements, taking into account the different dependence of signal-to-noise ratio on spatial frequency for each radiometer wavelength. The geophysical parameters are sea surface temperature, near-surface wind speed, integrated water vapor mass, integrated liquid water mass, and the product of rainfall rate with height of the rain layer. The capabilities and limitations of the inversion method are illustrated by means of data from the North Atlantic and from tropical storms.

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The influence of LiH and TiH 2 on hydrogen storage in MgB 2 II. XPS study of surface and near-surface phenomena

We report that Mg(BH 4 ) 2 is a promising solid-state hydrogen storage material, releasing 14.9 wt% hydrogen upon conversion to MgB 2 . The rehydrogenation of MgB 2 is particularly challenging, requiring prolonged exposure to high pressures of hydrogen at high temperature. Here we report an XPS study probing the influence of LiH and TiH 2 on the hydrogen storage properties of MgB 2 in the surface and near-surface regions, as a complementary investigation to a preceding study of the bulk properties. Surface and near-surface properties are important considerations for nanoscale and bulk hydrogen storage materials. If there are reactions occurring at the surface that modify the chemical composition in the near-surface region, species diffusion can alter the chemical composition even deep into the bulk of the material. For LiH/MgB 2 , metastable LiH–B and LiH–Mg species are produced that are more reactive than Bulk MgB 2 . With prolonged glovebox storage, the LiH/MgB 2 material shows increased reactivity towards O and C and enriched levels of Li and B in the near-surface region. In addition, Li induces the growth of Li 2 CO 3 in the surface and near surface regions. Exposing LiH/MgB 2 to hydrogen at 700 bar and 280 °C for 24 h produces borohydride at a temperature 100 °C below the threshold for bulk MgB 2 hydrogenation. In a specifically surface process with macroscopic implications, the hydrogenation conditions also cause Li 2 CO 3 to react with boron hydroxide in the sample to form a Li-deficient glassy lithium borate melt at the interfaces of the particles, bonding them together. Subsequent heating to 380 °C dehydrogenates the borohydride and eliminates the Li-deficient glassy lithium borate. The LiH/MgB 2 material is not reversible because desorption does not lead back to LiH/MgB 2 , but rather to elemental B and Mg metal in the near-surface region. In contrast to LiH, TiH 2 does not react with MgB 2 , despite the favorable thermodynamics for destabilization via TiB 2 formation. Furthermore, high pressure hydrogenation yields only unreacted TiH 2 and MgB 2 in the surface and near-surface regions. Thus, added TiH 2 provides no benefit to MgB 2 hydrogenation, in agreement with the findings of the preceding bulk study.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of Surface and Near-Surface Melt Characteristics on the Greenland Ice Sheet using MODIS and QuikSCAT Data

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been the focus of much attention recently because of increasing melt in response to regional climate warming. To improve our ability to measure surface melt, we use remote-sensing data products to study surface and near-surface melt characteristics of the Greenland Ice Sheet for the 2007 melt season when record melt extent and runoff occurred. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily land-surface temperature (LST), MODIS daily snow albedo, and a special diurnal melt product derived from QuikSCAT (QS) scatterometer data, are all effective in measuring the evolution of melt on the ice sheet. These daily products, produced from different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, are sensitive to different geophysical features, though QS- and MODIS-derived melt generally show excellent correspondence when surface melt is present on the ice sheet. Values derived from the daily MODIS snow albedo product drop in response to melt, and change with apparent grain-size changes. For the 2007 melt season, the QS and MODIS LST products detect 862,769 square kilometers and 766,184 square kilometers of melt, respectively. The QS product detects about 11% greater melt extent than is detected by the MODIS LST product probably because QS is more sensitive to surface melt, and can detect subsurface melt. The consistency of the response of the different products demonstrates unequivocally that physically-meaningful melt/freeze boundaries can be detected. We have demonstrated that these products, used together, can improve the precision in mapping surface and near-surface melt extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Combining Modis and Quikscat Data to Delineate Surface and Near-Surface Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Over the last two decades, increasing melt has been measured on the Greenland Ice Sheet, along with mass loss as determined from satellite data, Monitoring the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet becomes critical especially because it is actively losing mass, and the ice sheet has a sea-level rise potential of 7 in. However measurement of the extent of surface melt varies depending on the sensor used, whether it is passive or active microwave or visible or thermal infrared. We have used remote-sensing data products to study surface and near-surface melt characteristics of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We present a blended MODIS-QS melt daily product for 2007 [1]. The products, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily land-surface temperature (LST) and a special daily melt product derived from the QuikSCAT (QS) scatterometer [2,3] show consistency in delineating the melt boundaries on a daily basis in the 2007 melt season [I], though some differences are identified. An assessment of maximum melt area for the 2007 melt shows that the QSCAT product detects a greater amount of melt (862,769 square kilometers) than is detected by the MODIS LST product (766,184 square kilometers). The discrepancy is largely because the QS product can detect both surface and near-surface melt and the QS product captures melt if it occurred anytime during the day while the MODIS product is obtained from a point in time on a given day. However on a daily bases, other factors influence the measurement of melt extent. In this work we employ the digital-elevation model of Bamber et al. [4] along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to study some areas and time periods in detail during the 2007 melt season. We focus on times in which the QS and MODIS LST products do not agree exactly. We use NCEP and elevation data to analyze the atmospheric factors forcing the melt process, to gain an improved understanding of the conditions that lead to melt and melt persistence, and our ability to capture surface melt accurately using MODIS and QS data.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Background and Lunar Neutron Populations Detected by LEND and Average Concentration of Near-Surface Hydrogen near the Moon's Poles

Neutron flux measurements by the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) enable quantifying hydrogen-bearing volatiles in the lunar surface from orbit. Accurately determining hydrogen abundance requires discriminating between the instrument background detection rate and the population of lunar-sourced neutrons that are sensitive to surficial hydrogen. We have investigated the detection rate for lunar and non-lunar (spacecraft-sourced) neutrons in LEND by modeling maps of measured count rate in three LEND detector systems using linear combinations of maps compiled from LEND detectors and from the Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer. We find that 30% of the global-average 24.926 +/- 0.020 neutron counts per second (cps) detected by the LEND STN3 thermal-energy neutron sensor are lunar-sourced neutrons in the thermal energy range (E < 0.4 eV), 65% are lunar-sourced neutrons in the epithermal and fast energy range (E > 0.4 eV), and 5% are from spacecraft-sourced background signal. In the SETN epithermal neutron detector, 90% of the 10.622 +/- 0.002 neutron detections per second are consistent with a lunar source of epithermal and fast neutrons combined (E > 0.4 eV), with 3% due to lunar-sourced thermal neutron leakage into the detector (E < 0.4 eV), and background signal accounting for 7% of total detections. Background signal due to spacecraft-derived neutrons is substantial in the CSETN collimated detector system, accounting for 57% of the global average detection rate of 5.082 +/- 0.001 cps, greater than the 48% estimated from cruise-phase data. Lunar-sourced epithermal and fast neutrons account for 43% of detected neutrons, including neutrons in collimation as well as neutrons that penetrate the collimator wall to reach the detector. We estimate a lower limit of 17% of lunar-sourced neutrons detected by CSETN are epithermal neutrons in collimation (0.37 cps), with an upper limit estimate of 54 +/- 11% of lunar-sourced neutrons received in collimation, or 1.2 +/- 0.2 cps global average. The pole-to-equator contrast ratio in epithermal and high-energy epithermal neutron flux indicates that the average concentration of hydrogen in the polar regolith above 80deg north or south latitude is ∼105 ppmw (parts per million by weight), or 0.095 +/- 0.01 wt% water-equivalent hydrogen. Above 88deg north or south, the concentration increases to ∼140 ppmw, or 0.13 +/- 0.02 wt% water-equivalent hydrogen. The similar pattern of neutron flux suppression at both poles suggests that hydrogen concentration generally increases nearer the pole and is not closely associated with a specific feature such as Shackleton Crater at the lunar south pole that has no northern counterpart. Epithermal neutron flux decreases with increasing latitude outside the polar regions, consistent with surface hydration that increases with latitude if that hydration extends to ∼13-40 cm into the surface.

T A Livengood↗
NASA NTRS2018

Background and Lunar Neutron Populations Detected by LEND and Average Concentration of Near-Surface Hydrogen near the Moon's Poles

Neutron flux measurements by the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) enable quantifying hydrogen-bearing volatiles in the lunar surface from orbit. Accurately determining hydrogen abundance requires discriminating between the instrument background detection rate and the population of lunar-sourced neutrons that are sensitive to surficial hydrogen. We have investigated the detection rate for lunar and non-lunar (spacecraft-sourced) neutrons in LEND by modeling maps of measured count rate in three LEND detector systems using linear combinations of maps compiled from LEND detectors and from the Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer. We find that 30% of the global-average 24.926 0.020 neutron counts per second (cps) detected by the LEND STN3 thermal-energy neutron sensor are lunar-sourced neutrons in the thermal energy range (E < 0.4 eV), 65% are lunar-sourced neutrons in the epithermal and fast energy range (E > 0.4 eV), and 5% are from spacecraft-sourced background signal. In the SETN epithermal neutron detector, 90% of the 10.622 0.002 neutron detections per second are consistent with a lunar source of epithermal and fast neutrons combined (E > 0.4 eV), with 3% due to lunar-sourced thermal neutron leakage into the detector (E < 0.4 eV), and background signal accounting for 7% of total detections. Background signal due to spacecraft-derived neutrons is substantial in the CSETN collimated detector system, accounting for 57% of the global average detection rate of 5.082 0.001 cps, greater than the 48% estimated from cruise-phase data. Lunar-sourced epithermal and fast neutrons account for 43% of detected neutrons, including neutrons in collimation as well as neutrons that penetrate the collimator wall to reach the detector. We estimate a lower limit of 17% of lunar-sourced neutrons detected by CSETN are epithermal neutrons in collimation (0.37 cps), with an upper limit estimate of 54 11% of lunar-sourced neutrons received in collimation, or 1.2 0.2 cps global average. The pole-to-equator contrast ratio inepithermal and high-energy epithermal neutron flux indicates that the average concentration of hydrogen in the polar regolith above 80 north or south latitude is ~105 ppmw (parts per million by weight), or 0.095 0.01 wt% water-equivalent hydrogen. Above 88 north or south, the concentration increases to ~140 ppmw, or 0.13 0.02 wt% water-equivalent hydrogen. The similar pattern of neutron flux suppression at both poles suggests that hydrogen concentration generally increases nearer the pole and is not closely associated with a specific feature such as Shackleton Crater at the lunar south pole that has no northern counterpart. Epithermal neutron flux decreases with increasing latitude outside the polar regions, consistent with surface hydration that increases with latitude if that hydration extends to ~13-40 cm into the surface.

Livengood, Timothy A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Identification of Surface and Near Surface Defects and Damage Evaluation by Laser Speckle Techniques

As a part of the grant activity, a laboratory was established within the Department of Electrical Engineering for the study for measurements of surface defects and damage evaluation. This facility has been utilized for implementing several algorithms for accurate measurements of defects. Experiments were conducted using simulated images and multiple images were fused to achieve accurate measurements. During the nine months of the grants when the principal investigator was transferred in my name, experiments were conducted using simulated synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. This proved useful when several algorithms were used on images of smooth objects with minor deformalities. Given the time constraint, the derived algorithms could not be applied to actual images of smooth objects with minor abnormalities.

Gowda, Chandrakanth H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Over three decades, and counting, of near-surface turbulent flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility

Processes mediating the coupling of terrestrial, aquatic, biospheric, and atmospheric systems influence weather, climate, and ecosystem dynamics via transfer of energy, momentum, water, and carbon (or other species). These exchange processes are quantified by measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes. Understanding processes at these interfaces provides insight toward understanding and predicting current and future states within the Earth system. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has been conducting measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes since the early 1990s at long-term fixed locations and shorter-term mobile deployments across the Earth. ARM has utilized two established methods for conducting these measurements: energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) and eddy covariance (EC). Primary measurements from the former include sensible and latent heat flux, while the latter also measures fluxes of momentum and carbon (primarily carbon dioxide, with methane fluxes measured at two locations to date). The EBBR systems have been deployed at 22 locations, and, to date, the EC systems have been deployed at over 50 sites, with plans for additional novel site locations in the future. Herein, the history, evolution, and key aspects of these instrument systems are documented, along with information on data quality assurance and post-processing, as well as best use practices. Additionally, three data validation experiments were recently conducted, and their key findings are summarized. Finally, ancillary datasets acquired by ARM, which can contextualize and aid interpretation of the near-surface turbulent flux measurements, are discussed. The datasets described herein include the eddy correlation flux measurement system: 30ECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1879993, Sullivan et al., 1997), 30QCECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1097546, Gaustad, 2003), ECORSF (https://doi.org/10.5439/1494128, Sullivan et al., 2019a), and associated AmeriFlux and Methane Value-Added Product, AMCMETHANE (https://doi.org/10.5439/1508268, Billesbach, 2011); the energy balance Bowen ratio system: 30EBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1023895, Sullivan et al., 1993) and 30BAEBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1027268, Gaustad and Xie, 1993); and the carbon dioxide flux measurement system: CO2FLX (https://doi.org/10.5439/1287574, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287575, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287576, Koontz et al., 2015a, b, c; https://doi.org/10.5439/1989774, https://doi.org/10.5439/1989776, https://doi.org/10.5439/1992202, Biraud and Chan, 2002a, b, c). These data can be found by searching the above data stream names at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/ (last access: 8 September 2025).

Sullivan, Ryan C. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
NASA NTRS2020

Computationally Efficient Modeling and Data Assimilation of Near-Surface Variability

Near-surface (< 20m) ocean exhibits high variability due to coupled interactions, for e.g., with the atmosphere, sea ice, land, etc. Here we focus on atmospheric heat and momentum (wind) forcing, which are known to cause diurnal variability within the mixed layer. Only recently with a combination of sufficiently high vertical/horizontal resolution (75L, 1/4deg) and sub-daily atmospheric forcing fields, ocean models are starting to resolve this diurnal variability. However, the computation expense of such a high vertical resolution is burdensome in the context of coupled modeling and data assimilation. An alternative approach is to parameterize this diurnal variability with a prognostic model, that is embedded into the ocean model.In the first part of this presentation, we will demonstrate results with the above two approaches, by comparing them to profiles of near-surface temperature and salinity. In the context of data assimilation and reanalysis, this modeling capability opens the door to re-examine and perhaps improve specification of background (or, ensemble) error characteristics. The second half of this talk will focus on illustrating diurnally varying errors within an ensemble DA, and possible approaches to improve localization (horizontal/vertical) to extract maximum possible observational information content from in-situ and satellite observations of sea surface temperature.

Akella, Santha↗
NASA NTRS2010

Delineation of Surface and Near-Surface Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet Using MODIS and QuikSCAT data

This slide presentation reviews the use of MODIS and QuikSCAT data to measure the surface and sub-surface melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The project demonstrated the consistence of this technique for measuring the ice melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The blending of the two instruments data allows for determination of surface vs subsurface melting. Also, the use of albedo maps can provide information about the intensity of the melting.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Relationship between Satellite-Based Land Surface Temperature and Station-Based Near-Surface Air Temperature over Brazil

A better understanding of the relationship between land surface temperature (Ts) and near-surface air temperature (Ta) is crucial for improving the simulation accuracy of climate models, developing retrieval schemes for soil and vegetation moisture, and estimating large-scale Ta from satellite-based Ts observations. In this study, we investigated the relationship between multiple satellite-based Ts products, derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua satellite, and Ta from 204 meteorological stations over Brazil during 2003–2016. Monthly satellite-based Ts products used in this study include: (1) AIRS Version 6 with 1° spatial resolution, (2) AIRS Version 7 with 1° spatial resolution, (3) MODIS Collection 6 with 0.05° spatial resolution, and (4) MODIS Collection 6 with 1° spatial resolution re-sampled from (3) for a direct comparison with AIRS products. We found that satellite-based Ts is lower than Ta over the forest area, but higher than Ta over the non-forest area. Nevertheless, the correlation coefficients (R) between monthly Ta and four Ts products during 2003–2016 are greater than 0.8 over most stations. The long-term trend analysis shows a general warming trend in temperatures, particularly over the central and eastern parts of Brazil. The satellite products could also observe the increasing Ts over the deforestation region. Furthermore, we examined the temperature anomalies during three drought events in the dry season of 2005, 2010, and 2015. All products show similar spatio-temporal patterns, with positive temperature anomalies expanding in areal coverage and magnitude from the 2005 to 2015 event. The above results show that satellite-based Ts is sensitive in reflecting environmental changes such as deforestation and extreme climatic events, and can be used as an alternative to Ta for climatological studies. Moreover, the observed differences between Ts and Ta may inform how thermal assumptions can be improved in satellite-based retrievals of soil and vegetation moisture or evapotranspiration.

land surface temperature↗
NASA NTRS2003

Using Remote Sensing Platforms to Estimate Near-Surface Soil Properties

Evaluation of near-surface soil properties via remote sensing (RS) could facilitate soil survey mapping, erosion prediction, fertilization regimes, and allocation of agrochemicals. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between soil spectral signature and near surface soil properties in conventionally managed row crop systems. High resolution RS data were acquired over bare fields in the Coastal Plain, Appalachian Plateau, and Ridge and Valley provinces of Alabama using the Airborne Terrestrial Applications Sensor (ATLAS) multispectral scanner. Soils ranged from sandy Kandiudults to fine textured Rhodudults. Surface soil samples (0-1 cm) were collected from 163 sampling points for soil water content, soil organic carbon (SOC), particle size distribution (PSD), and citrate dithionite extractable iron (Fed) content. Surface roughness, soil water content, and crusting were also measured at sampling. Results showed RS data acquired from lands with less than 4 % surface soil water content best approximated near-surface soil properties at the Coastal Plain site where loamy sand textured surfaces were predominant. Utilizing a combination of band ratios in stepwise regression, Fed (r2 = 0.61), SOC (r2 = 0.36), sand (r2 = 0.52), and clay (r2 = 0.76) were related to RS data at the Coastal Plain site. In contrast, the more clayey Ridge and Valley soils had r-squares of 0.50, 0.36, 0.17, and 0.57. for Fed, SOC, sand and clay, respectively. Use of estimated eEmissivity did not generally improve estimates of near-surface soil attributes.

Sullivan, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Electrical properties of polyimides containing a near-surface deposit of silver

Films containing a surface or near-surface deposit of palladium, gold or copper metal as well as tin, cobalt, copper, or lithium oxides have been prepared by dissolving appropriate metal salts into poly(amide-acid)/N,N-dimethylacetamide solutions and curing the solvent cast films to temperatures up to 300 C. This preparation technique has been extended to evaluate the thermal, spectroscopic, and electrical characteristics of condensation polyimide films modified with silver nitrate. A near-surface deposit of metallic silver results but the reflective surface has high electrical resistivity (sheet resistivity) due to a polymer coating or overlayer above the metal. Details pertaining to the silver nitrate modified condensation polyimides are presented. Also, the applicability of the structural model and electrical model previously proposed for the cobalt oxide system are assessed.

Rancourt, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source attribution of near-surface ozone pollution in Jiangsu Province of China over 2013–2019

Near-surface ozone (O3) is one of the most severe air pollutants in China, particularly over densely populated Jiangsu Province in the Yangtze River Delta. In this study, an O3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry-climate model to quantify the source contributions of various emission sectors and regions for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to O3 concentrations in Jiangsu Province during 2013–2019. The results show that the near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province is mainly contributed by surrounding and remote anthropogenic NOx emissions through long-range transport. Local anthropogenic NOx emissions account for only 13 % and 18 % of the annual and summertime mean near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the surface transportation, industry, and energy sectors account for 21 %, 22 % and 20 % of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs emissions each explains one-third of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu, while methane and stratospheric chemical production contribute 21 % and 6 %, respectively. The sources from stratospheric production, aircraft, lightning, and foreign emissions are the primary contributors to O3 in the mid- and high troposphere. During high pollution days in Jiangsu Province, the near-surface O3 concentrations increase with the maximum exceeding 20 ppb, which is attributed to both the enhanced photochemical production and regional transport in favorable meteorological conditions.

ozone pollution↗
NASA NTRS2010

Development of an AQUA Based Near-Surface Parameter Retrieval

The production of a satellite based turbulent surface flux product relies critically upon the near-surface input parameters. Development of retrieval algorithms for the necessary near-surface variables of wind speed, specific humidity, air temperature, and sea surface temperature has proceeded relatively independent of each another until recently. The use of a neural network approach using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in conjunction with a first guess sea surface temperature has led to successful retrieval of all parameters simultaneously. However, SSM/I frequencies lack inherent sensitivity to the sea surface temperature (SST). Recent studies have found improved air temperature and humidity retrievals can be obtained via inclusion of microwave sounding channels weighted in the lower troposphere. The inclusion of SSM/I-like frequencies as well as SST-sensitive microwave channels on AMSR-E along with AMSU-A sounding data onboard the AQUA platform provides an unique opportunity. That is the ability to provide near-simultaneous (in space and time) measurements allowing the retrieval of all the near-surface variables, including SST. This study shows results of a new algorithm designed to take advantage of the unique sampling ability of AQUA based sensors. Results from a neural network based methodology will be shown as compared to in-situ based observations of near-surface variables. Implications for creation of an AQUA based turbulent surface product are also discussed.

Roberts, Brent↗
NASA NTRS2023

Highly Restricted Near‐Surface Permafrost Extent During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

To better understand how near‐surface permafrost may respond to future warming, we explore the equilibrium spatial extent of near‐surface permafrost during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP), which shares characteristics of the projected future climate. Our simulations, which are constrained by proxy records, suggest highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mPWP, akin to future large-scale permafrost degradation projections of our model for the end of this century. Our study indicates dramatically smaller-than-present near‐surface permafrost extent in the geological past under climate conditions analogous to those expected if global warming continues unabated. This absence in permafrost will come with critical implications for the global carbon cycle, human livelihoods and infrastructures, and surface and subsurface hydrology.

near‐surface permafrost↗