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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Forte: An Interactive Visual Analytic Tool for Trust-Augmented Net-Load Forecasting

Accurate net-load forecasting is vital for energy planning, aiding decisions on trade and load distribution. However, assessing the performance of forecasting models across diverse input variables, like temperature and humidity, remains challenging, particularly for eliciting a high degree of trust in the model outcomes. In this context, there is a growing need for data-driven technological interventions to aid scientists in comprehending how models react to both noisy and clean input variables, thus shedding light on complex behaviors and fostering confidence in the outcomes. In this paper, we present Forte, a visual analytics-based application to explore deep probabilistic net-load forecasting models across various input variables and understand the error rates for different scenarios. With carefully designed visual interventions, this web-based interface empowers scientists to derive insights about model performance by simulating diverse scenarios, facilitating an informed decision-making process. We discuss observations made using Forte and demonstrate the effectiveness of visualization techniques to provide valuable insights into the correlation between weather inputs and net-load forecasts, ultimately advancing grid capabilities by improving trust in forecasting models.

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpretable Net Load Forecasting Using Smooth Multiperiodic Features

We consider the problem of forecasting net load over a horizon such as one day, using a trailing window of past net load values as well as date and time. We focus on three variations on this problem: point forecasts, marginal quantile forecasts, and generating conditional samples of the future value. We propose a method that relies on linear regression using some custom engineered time-based features to capture multiple periodicities, such as daily, weekly, and seasonal, and their interactions. Our proposed models are readily interpretable, and rely on efficient and reliable convex optimization [1] to fit. We illustrate our method on four years worth of hourly net load data, comparing predictions made with various subsets of the features.

Ogut, Mehmet G↗
DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Distributed Power Apportioning with Net Load Management Engine in Microgrids Using Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This article presents the performance evaluation of ratio consensus-based distributed power apportioning engine along with centralized net load management (NLM) engine that ensures viable and stable operation of an islanded microgrid. Managing net load variability in a microgrid with high penetrations of uncertain renewable generation and ever-changing load demands is a crucial need in order to ensure viable and stable operation of the microgrid. Centralized “dispatch-rule”-based and/or multi-agent-based distributed control of distributed energy resources (DERs) in microgrid are well accepted for microgrid by adapting ANSI/ISA-95-based hierarchical control architecture. In the application where microgrid network has large geographical span with multiple DERs dispersed in the network, high penetration of uncertain renewable energy resources, and ever-changing load demands, a judicious selection of techniques/solutions for managing net-load resources for maintaining viability and stability is required. With this motivation, this article proposes a novel solution to mitigate the challenges by incorporating a mixed centralized NLM engine and distributed power apportioning control of DERs and loads. A power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) -based experiment is conducted with the centralized NLM engine and the distributed power apportioning engine along with two commercial inverters. The experimental results validates the efficacy of the proposed method in ensuring viability and stability of a microgrid.

hardware-in-the-loop simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Forecasting, Net Load Forecasting, and Data-Driven Distributed Solar Visibility Prizes (Final Technical Report)

The American-Made Solar Forecasting Prize, Net Load Forecasting Prize, and Data-Driven Distribution (3D) Solar Visibility Prize is a multimillion-dollar prize competition designed to energize U.S. solar innovation through a series of contests that accelerate the entrepreneurial process from years to months. The activities incentivized by these three prizes will support the governmentwide approach to increase American energy dominance by promoting innovation and early deployment of energy technologies, resulting in wider adoption, which is critical for secure, affordable, and reliable solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Hydropower Operational Flexibilities in Presence of Streamflow and Net-load Uncertainty (Final Technical report)

In the existing operations, hydropower contributions to future system flexibility are generally modeled while maintaining traditional operating rules and constraints in supporting grid operation, such as the balancing of variable renewable energy production. Moreover, operation of large scale hydropower systems on major rivers has been investigated for decades, utilizing various systems engineering approaches, with the evolving electric grid, as the result of renewable resources integration, compounded by the changing climate (variability of river flows, intensification of hydrologic cycle resulting in more frequent extreme events) affecting water availability, the need for more advanced stochastic modeling and effective uncertainty analysis approaches have become necessary. The research results supported by this funding and presented in this report provide a new look at hydropower operational flexibility enforced by the changes identified above. Understanding how hydropower operates in response to the underlying uncertainties with respect to the system constraints is crucial in identifying its operational flexibility potentials. In this project, the flexibility of the operating hydropower facility is described by capturing uncertainties in both water and power system and formulating the operations as a multistage stochastic optimization problem. The proposed approach supports short- to seasonal-term operations and planning decision horizons.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Distributionally Robust Optimization Framework for Stochastic Assessment of Power System Flexibility in Economic Dispatch

Given the complexity of power systems, particularly the high-dimensional variability of net loads, accurately depicting the entire operational range of net loads poses a challenge. To address this, recent methodologies have sought to gauge the maximum range of net load uncertainty across all buses. In this paper, we consider the stochastic nature of the net load and introduce a distributionally robust optimization framework that assesses system flexibility stochastically, accommodating a minimal extent of system violations. We verify the proposed method by solving the flexibility of the economic dispatch problem on four distinct IEEE standard test systems. Compared to traditional deterministic flexibility evaluations, our approach consistently yields less conservative flexibility outcomes.

distributionally robust optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Hybrid Classification-Regression Solution for High-Frequency Nonintrusive Load Monitoring

Residential buildings with the ability to monitor and control their net-load (sum of load and generation) can provide valuable flexibility to power grid operators. We present a novel multiclass nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) approach that enables effective net-load monitoring capabilities at high-frequency with minimal additional equipment and cost. The proposed machine learning based solution provides accurate multiclass state predictions while operating at a faster timescale (able to provide a prediction for each 60- Hz ac cycle used in US power grid) without relying on event-detection techniques. We also introduce an innovative hybrid classification-regression method that allows for the prediction of not only load on/off states but also individual load operating power levels. A test bed with eight residential appliances is used for validating the NILM approach. Results show that the overall method has high accuracy, good scaling and generalization properties.

feature extraction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration

Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.

demand forecasting, Microgrid, power system restor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-Based Analysis of Feeder Operation with Different PV Smart Inverter Functions on an Actual Distribution System: Preprint

High penetration of photovoltaics (PV) in distribution feeders can cause problems, such as overvoltage, reverse power flow, and large net load changes. Traditional voltage regulation devices, such as capacitors and voltage regulators, can solve some of these problems but might have some delays. Today, smart inverters are gradually being used to provide voltage regulation and frequency support in distribution systems. Different smart inverter settings have been recommended in various rules and standards; however, the potential benefits and their impacts on distribution system operation are not well compared and studied. This paper presents a comparison of different smart inverter settings as applied to a distribution system. An actual feeder model from San Diego Gas & Electric Company is used to conduct the simulation. Additionally, a load disaggregation method is proposed to disaggregate the load and PV profile for each load location using advanced metering infrastructure net load measurements. Then, different smart inverter settings are applied to the PV systems in the feeder, and the simulation results are compared. The results show that the implementation of specific functions of smart inverters can reduce voltage exceedances, and the utility can determine the specific inverter setting based on its operational requirements.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid Service Restoration Incorporating Unmonitored Automatic Voltage Controllers and Net Metered Loads

Islanded microgrids may experience voltage and frequency instability due to uncontrolled state changes of voltage regulation devices and inaccurate demand forecasts. Uncontrolled state changes can occur if optimal microgrid restoration and dispatch algorithms, used for generating control commands for distributed energy resources, do not incorporate the behavior of automatic controllers of voltage regulation devices. Inaccurate demand forecasts may be encountered since post-outage demand of behind-the-meter net metered (NM) loads can vary significantly from their historical NM profiles. Here, this paper proposes an optimization formulation which allows optimal control of voltage regulators and capacitor banks without remote control and communication capabilities. A generalized demand model for NM loads is proposed which incorporates the cold load pickup phenomenon and their time varying post-outage demand in accordance with the IEEE 1547 standard. The time dependent optimal control formulation and the NM demand model are integrated in a sequential microgrid restoration algorithm by linearization of the involved logic propositions. A detailed case study on the unbalanced IEEE 123-node test system in OpenDSS validates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Storage Response to Utility Tariff Structures and Potential Use of Capacity Charges

Energy storage is increasingly being deployed in behind-the-meter use cases, partially in response to falling lithium-ion prices and new utility tariff structures. Utilities are grappling with new tariff design in the presence of distributed energy resources (DER), trying to motivate, fairly price the contribution of, and, in some cases, discourage, certain operation of DER. There are opportunities for energy storage under emerging tariff structures, but utility net load management objectives for storage remain unclear. Diverse tariff structures motivate the use of energy storage to provide one or a combination of: energy arbitrage, energy shifting, solar self-consumption, and import shaving. This paper formulates a linear optimization to demonstrate the optimal storage tariff response, examining customer net load metrics under diverse utility tariff structures, such as time-of-use, net metering, feed-in tariffs, zero export tariffs, and demand charges. A key contribution of this paper is the introduction and examination of a capacity charge as mechanism that can both motivate reductions in both peak import, and exports, along with greater load levelling.

behind-the-meter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Assessment of Interregional Coordination to Support Resource Adequacy [Slides]

This study examines where interregional transmission could most effectively support resource adequacy in the contiguous United States. We use hourly load, renewable generation, and real-time price data from 2016–2023 for 18 planning subregions to identify periods of elevated adequacy risk, defined as the top 100 annual hours of net load and wholesale prices in each region. We then measure the temporal coincidence of these peak periods between adjacent regions and compare price patterns to assess the potential for capacity sharing. Results show that NorthernGrid West, a winter-peaking region, has low coincidence of peak net load with its summer-peaking neighbors, indicating high potential for interregional support. In contrast, regions in the Northeast have highly coincident peak periods, suggesting limited adequacy benefits from additional transmission. Price-based analysis shows peak-hour differences in the Midwest and between ERCOT and neighboring regions, indicating potential economic benefits from increased transfers. The findings provide an empirical screening of where transmission may offer the greatest reliability benefits without adding new generation capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

pnnl/Forte

Interactive user-interface application for deep probabilistic day-ahead net-load forecasting. This application allows a utility operator and/or other end-user to access through an easy interface the powers of advanced deep AI/ML algorithms for generating day-ahead probabilistic forecast of net-load. Also known as "VRN3P"

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗