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NASA NTRS2016

Is It Worth It? - the Economics of Reusable Space Transportation

Over the past several decades billions of dollars have been invested by governments and private companies in the pursuit of lower cost access to space through earth-to-orbit (ETO) space transportation systems. Much of that investment has been focused on the development and operation of various forms of reusable transportation systems. From the Space Shuttle to current efforts by private commercial companies, the overarching belief of those making such investments has been that reusing system elements will be cheaper than utilizing expendable systems that involve throwing away costly engines, avionics, and other hardware with each flight. However, the view that reusable systems are ultimately a "better" approach to providing ETO transportation is not held universally by major stakeholders within the space transportation industry. While the technical feasibility of at least some degree of reusability has been demonstrated, there continues to be a sometimes lively debate over the merits and drawbacks of reusable versus expendable systems from an economic perspective. In summary, is it worth it? Based on our many years of direct involvement with the business aspects of several expendable and reusable transportation systems, it appears to us that much of the discussion surrounding reusability is hindered by a failure to clearly define and understand the financial and other metrics by which the financial "goodness" of a reusable or expandable approach is measured. As stakeholders, the different users and suppliers of space transportation have a varied set of criteria for determining the relative economic viability of alternative strategies, including reusability. Many different metrics have been used to measure the affordability of space transportation, such as dollars per payload pound (kilogram) to orbit, cost per flight, life cycle cost, net present value/internal rate of return, and many others. This paper will examine the key considerations that influence stakeholders as they make space transportation investment decisions, including primary metrics by which various stakeholders measure financial goodness and other factors that significantly shape decisions to invest in reusable or expendable systems. It must be noted at the outset that reusable systems take many forms and perform different transportation functions including, but not limited to, ETO payload delivery. The discussion in this paper is limited to the economics of ETO transportation systems.

Webb, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1979

Optimization of space manufacturing systems

Four separate analyses are detailed: transportation to low earth orbit, orbit-to-orbit optimization, parametric analysis of SPS logistics based on earth and lunar source locations, and an overall program option optimization implemented with linear programming. It is found that smaller vehicles are favored for earth launch, with the current Space Shuttle being right at optimum payload size. Fully reusable launch vehicles represent a savings of 50% over the Space Shuttle; increased reliability with less maintenance could further double the savings. An optimization of orbit-to-orbit propulsion systems using lunar oxygen for propellants shows that ion propulsion is preferable by a 3:1 cost margin over a mass driver reaction engine at optimum values; however, ion engines cannot yet operate in the lower exhaust velocity range where the optimum lies, and total program costs between the two systems are ambiguous. Heavier payloads favor the use of a MDRE. A parametric model of a space manufacturing facility is proposed, and used to analyze recurring costs, total costs, and net present value discounted cash flows. Parameters studied include productivity, effects of discounting, materials source tradeoffs, economic viability of closed-cycle habitats, and effects of varying degrees of nonterrestrial SPS materials needed from earth. Finally, candidate optimal scenarios are chosen, and implemented in a linear program with external constraints in order to arrive at an optimum blend of SPS production strategies in order to maximize returns.

Akin, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A study of the cost-effective markets for new technology agricultural aircraft

A previously developed data base was used to estimate the regional and total U.S. cost-effective markets for a new technology agricultural aircraft as incorporating features which could result from NASA-sponsored aerial applications research. The results show that the long-term market penetration of a new technology aircraft would be near 3,000 aircraft. This market penetration would be attained in approximately 20 years. Annual sales would be about 200 aircraft after 5 to 6 years of introduction. The net present value of cost savings benefit which this aircraft would yield (measured on an infinite horizon basis) would be about $35 million counted at a 10 percent discount rate and $120 million at a 5 percent discount rate. At both discount rates the present value of cost savings exceeds the present value of research and development (R&D) costs estimated for the development of the technology base needed for the proposed aircraft. These results are quite conservative as they have been derived neglecting future growth in the agricultural aviation industry, which has been averaging about 12 percent per year over the past several years.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

Grandl, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Cost benefit analysis of space communications technology: Volume 1: Executive summary

The questions of (1) whether or not NASA should support the further development of space communications technology, and, if so, (2) which technology's support should be given the highest priority are addressed. Insofar as the issues deal principally with resource allocation, an economics perspective is adopted. The resultant cost benefit methodology utilizes the net present value concept in three distinct analysis stages to evaluate and rank those technologies which pass a qualification test based upon probable (private sector) market failure. User-preference and technology state-of-the-art surveys were conducted (in 1975) to form a data base for the technology evaluation. The program encompassed near-future technologies in space communications earth stations and satellites, including the noncommunication subsystems of the satellite (station keeping, electrical power system, etc.). Results of the research program include confirmation of the applicability of the methodology as well as a list of space communications technologies ranked according to the estimated net present value of their support (development) by NASA.

Holland, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1975

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 2: The SEASAT system description and performance

Results are presented of preliminary trade-off studies of operational SEASAT systems. The trade-off studies were used as the basis for the estimation of costs and net benefits of the operational SEASAT system. Also presented are the preliminary results of simulation studies that were designed to lead to a measure of the impact of SEASAT data through the use of numerical weather forecast models.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1981

A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 1: Summary

The utility owned solar electric system methodology is generalized and updated. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs (including a specified return on investment). Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero. While the model was designed for photovoltaic generators with a possible thermal energy byproduct, it applicability is not limited to such systems. The resulting owner-dependent methodology for energy generation system assessment consists of a few equations that can be evaluated without the aid of a high-speed computer.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations

The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1977

AEMS implementation cost study for Boeing 727

Costs for airline operational implementation of a NASA-developed approach energy management system (AEMS) concept, as applied to the 727 airplane, were determined. Estimated costs are provided for airplane retrofit and for installation of the required DME ground stations. Operational costs and fuel cost savings are presented in a cost-of-ownership study. The potential return on the equipment investment is evaluated using a net present value method. Scheduled 727 traffic and existing VASI, ILS, and collocated DME ground station facilities are summarized for domestic airports used by 727 operators.

Allison, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Remote sensing as a tool for watershed-wide estimation of net solar radiation and water loss to the atmosphere

Results are presented for a study intended to develop a general remote sensing-aided cost-effective procedure to estimate watershed-wide water loss to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration and to estimate net solar radiation over the watershed. Evapotranspiration estimation employs a basic two-stage two-phase sample of three information resolution levels. Net solar radiation is taken as one of the variables at each level of evapotranspiration modeling. The input information for models requiring spatial information will be provided by Landsat digital data, environmental satellite data, ground meteorological data, ground sample unit information, and topographic data. The outputs of the sampling-estimation/data bank system will be in-place maps of evapotranspiration on a data resolution element basis, watershed-wide evapotranspiration isopleths, and estimates of watershed and subbasin total evapotranspiration with associated statistical confidence bounds. The methodology developed is being tested primarily on the Spanish Creek Watershed Plumas County, California.

Khorram, S.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Gallium arsenide solar cells-status and prospects for use in space

Gallium Arsenide solar cells now equal or surpass the ubiquitous silicon solar cells in efficiency, radiation resistance, annealability, and in the capability for producing usable power output at elevated temperatures. NASA has developed a long-range research and development program to capitalize on these manifold advantages. In this paper we review the current state and future prospects for R&D in this promising solar cell material, and indicate the progress being made toward development of GaAs cells suitable for a variety of space missions. Results are presented from studies which demonstrate conclusively that GaAs cells can provide a net mission cost and weight savings for certain important mission classes.

Brandhorst, H. W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Applying Technology Ranking and Systems Engineering in Advanced Life Support

According to the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program Plan, the Systems Modeling and Analysis Project (SMAP) has two important tasks: 1) prioritizing investments in ALS Research and Technology Development (R&TD), and 2) guiding the evolution of ALS systems. Investments could be prioritized simply by independently ranking different technologies, but we should also consider a technology's impact on system design. Guiding future ALS systems will require SMAP to consider many aspects of systems engineering. R&TD investments can be prioritized using familiar methods for ranking technology. The first step is gathering data on technology performance, safety, readiness level, and cost. Then the technologies are ranked using metrics or by decision analysis using net present economic value. The R&TD portfolio can be optimized to provide the maximum expected payoff in the face of uncertain future events. But more is needed. The optimum ALS system can not be designed simply by selecting the best technology for each predefined subsystem. Incorporating a new technology, such as food plants, can change the specifications of other subsystems, such as air regeneration. Systems must be designed top-down starting from system objectives, not bottom-up from selected technologies. The familiar top-down systems engineering process includes defining mission objectives, mission design, system specification, technology analysis, preliminary design, and detail design. Technology selection is only one part of systems analysis and engineering, and it is strongly related to the subsystem definitions. ALS systems should be designed using top-down systems engineering. R&TD technology selection should consider how the technology affects ALS system design. Technology ranking is useful but it is only a small part of systems engineering.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Non-Magnetic, Tough, Corrosion- and Wear-Resistant Knives From Bulk Metallic Glasses and Composites

Quality knives are typically fabricated from high-strength steel alloys. Depending on the application, there are different requirements for mechanical and physical properties that cause problems for steel alloys. For example, diver's knives are generally used in salt water, which causes rust in steel knives. Titanium diver's knives are a popular alternative due to their salt water corrosion resistance, but are too soft to maintain a sharp cutting edge. Steel knives are also magnetic, which is undesirable for military applications where the knives are used as a tactical tool for diffusing magnetic mines. Steel is also significantly denser than titanium (8 g/cu cm vs. 4.5 g/cu cm), which results in heavier knives for the same size. Steel is hard and wear-resistant, compared with titanium, and can keep a sharp edge during service. A major drawback of both steel and titanium knives is that they must be ground or machined into the final knife shape from a billet. Since most knives have a mirrored surface and a complex shape, manufacturing them is complex. It would be more desirable if the knife could be cast into a net or near-net shape in a single step. The solution to the deficiencies of titanium, steel, and ceramic knives is to fabricate them using bulk metallic glasses (or composites). These alloys can be cast into net or near-net shaped knives with a combination of properties that exceed both titanium and steel. A commercially viable BMG (bulk metallic glass) or composite knife is one that exhibits one or all of the following properties: It is based on titanium, has a self-sharpening edge, can retain an edge during service, is hard, is non-magnetic, is corrosion-resistant against a variety of corrosive environments, is tough (to allow for prying), can be cast into a net-shape with a mirror finish and a complex shape, has excellent wear resistance, and is low-density. These properties can be achieved in BMG and composites through alloy chemistry and processing. For each desired property for knife fabrication and performance, there is an alloy development strategy that optimizes behavior. Although BMG knives have been demonstrated as far back as 1995, they never found commercial success because they had to be ground (which presented problems because the alloys contained beryllium), they weren't low cost (because they weren't cast to a net-shape), they were brittle (because they were made with a low-quality commercial material), and they had extremely poor corrosion resistance (because corrosion was not well-understood in these materials). Ultimately, these shortcomings prevented the widespread commercialization. In the current work, the inventors have applied more than a decade of research on BMGs from Caltech and JPL to develop a better understanding of how to make BMG knives that exhibit an optimal combination of properties, processing and cost. Alloys have been developed based in titanium (and other metals), that exhibit high toughness, high hardness, excellent corrosion resistance, no ferromagnetism, edge-retaining selfsharpening, and the ability to be cast like a plastic using commercially available casting techniques (currently used by commercial companies such as Liquidmetal Technologies and Visser Precision Casting). The inventors argue that depending on the application (diving, military, tactical, utility, etc.) there is an optimal combination of design and alloy composition. Moreover, with new casting technologies not available at the inception of these materials, net-shaped knives can be cast into complex shapes that require no aftermarket forming, except for sharpening using water-cooled polishing wheel. These combinations of discoveries seek to make low-cost BMG knives commercially viable products that have no equal among metal or ceramic knives. Current work at JPL focuses on net-shape casting of these alloys and testing their mechanical properties versus commercially available knives to demonstrate their benefits.

Hoffman, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Experiences with serial and parallel algorithms for channel routing using simulated annealing

Two algorithms for channel routing using simulated annealing are presented. Simulated annealing is an optimization methodology which allows the solution process to back up out of local minima that may be encountered by inappropriate selections. By properly controlling the annealing process, it is very likely that the optimal solution to an NP-complete problem such as channel routing may be found. The algorithm presented proposes very relaxed restrictions on the types of allowable transformations, including overlapping nets. By freeing that restriction and controlling overlap situations with an appropriate cost function, the algorithm becomes very flexible and can be applied to many extensions of channel routing. The selection of the transformation utilizes a number of heuristics, still retaining the pseudorandom nature of simulated annealing. The algorithm was implemented as a serial program for a workstation, and a parallel program designed for a hypercube computer. The details of the serial implementation are presented, including many of the heuristics used and some of the resulting solutions.

Brouwer, Randall Jay↗

NASA NTRS1978

Cost benefit assessment of NASA remote sensing technology transferred to the State of Georgia

The benefits involved in the transfer of NASA remote sensing technology to eight Georgia state agencies are identified in quantifiable and qualitative terms, and a value for these benefits is computed by means of an effectiveness analysis. The benefits of the transfer are evaluated by contrasting a baseline scenario without Landsat and an alternative scenario with Landsat. The net present value of the Landsat technology being transferred is estimated at 9.5 million dollars. The estimated value of the transfer is most sensitive to discount rate, the cost of photo acquisition, and the cost of data digitalization. It is estimated that, if the budget is constrained, Landsat could provide data products roughly seven times more frequently than would otherwise be possible.

Kelly, D. L.↗