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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

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NASA NTRS2007

Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

Grandl, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 1: Summary

The utility owned solar electric system methodology is generalized and updated. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs (including a specified return on investment). Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero. While the model was designed for photovoltaic generators with a possible thermal energy byproduct, it applicability is not limited to such systems. The resulting owner-dependent methodology for energy generation system assessment consists of a few equations that can be evaluated without the aid of a high-speed computer.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations

The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Cost benefit analysis of space communications technology: Volume 1: Executive summary

The questions of (1) whether or not NASA should support the further development of space communications technology, and, if so, (2) which technology's support should be given the highest priority are addressed. Insofar as the issues deal principally with resource allocation, an economics perspective is adopted. The resultant cost benefit methodology utilizes the net present value concept in three distinct analysis stages to evaluate and rank those technologies which pass a qualification test based upon probable (private sector) market failure. User-preference and technology state-of-the-art surveys were conducted (in 1975) to form a data base for the technology evaluation. The program encompassed near-future technologies in space communications earth stations and satellites, including the noncommunication subsystems of the satellite (station keeping, electrical power system, etc.). Results of the research program include confirmation of the applicability of the methodology as well as a list of space communications technologies ranked according to the estimated net present value of their support (development) by NASA.

Holland, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-20735-DND

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is ~ $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

Bruce Wielicki↗

NASA NTRS1978

Cost benefit assessment of NASA remote sensing technology transferred to the State of Georgia

The benefits involved in the transfer of NASA remote sensing technology to eight Georgia state agencies are identified in quantifiable and qualitative terms, and a value for these benefits is computed by means of an effectiveness analysis. The benefits of the transfer are evaluated by contrasting a baseline scenario without Landsat and an alternative scenario with Landsat. The net present value of the Landsat technology being transferred is estimated at 9.5 million dollars. The estimated value of the transfer is most sensitive to discount rate, the cost of photo acquisition, and the cost of data digitalization. It is estimated that, if the budget is constrained, Landsat could provide data products roughly seven times more frequently than would otherwise be possible.

Kelly, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Optimization of space manufacturing systems

Four separate analyses are detailed: transportation to low earth orbit, orbit-to-orbit optimization, parametric analysis of SPS logistics based on earth and lunar source locations, and an overall program option optimization implemented with linear programming. It is found that smaller vehicles are favored for earth launch, with the current Space Shuttle being right at optimum payload size. Fully reusable launch vehicles represent a savings of 50% over the Space Shuttle; increased reliability with less maintenance could further double the savings. An optimization of orbit-to-orbit propulsion systems using lunar oxygen for propellants shows that ion propulsion is preferable by a 3:1 cost margin over a mass driver reaction engine at optimum values; however, ion engines cannot yet operate in the lower exhaust velocity range where the optimum lies, and total program costs between the two systems are ambiguous. Heavier payloads favor the use of a MDRE. A parametric model of a space manufacturing facility is proposed, and used to analyze recurring costs, total costs, and net present value discounted cash flows. Parameters studied include productivity, effects of discounting, materials source tradeoffs, economic viability of closed-cycle habitats, and effects of varying degrees of nonterrestrial SPS materials needed from earth. Finally, candidate optimal scenarios are chosen, and implemented in a linear program with external constraints in order to arrive at an optimum blend of SPS production strategies in order to maximize returns.

Akin, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Cost benefit analysis of the transfer of NASA remote sensing technology to the state of Georgia

The author has identified the following significant results. First order benefits can generally be quantified, thus allowing quantitative comparisons of candidate land cover data systems. A meaningful dollar evaluation of LANDSAT can be made by a cost comparison with equally effective data systems. Users of LANDSAT data can be usefully categorized as performing three general functions: planning, permitting, and enforcing. The value of LANDSAT data to the State of Georgia is most sensitive to the parameters: discount rate, digitization cost, and photo acquisition cost. Under a constrained budget, LANDSAT could provide digitized land cover information roughly seven times more frequently than could otherwise be obtained. Thus on one hand, while the services derived from LANDSAT data in comparison to the baseline system has a positive net present value, on the other hand if the budget were constrained, more frequent information could be provided using the LANDSAT system than otherwise be obtained.

Zimmer, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

AEMS implementation cost study for Boeing 727

Costs for airline operational implementation of a NASA-developed approach energy management system (AEMS) concept, as applied to the 727 airplane, were determined. Estimated costs are provided for airplane retrofit and for installation of the required DME ground stations. Operational costs and fuel cost savings are presented in a cost-of-ownership study. The potential return on the equipment investment is evaluated using a net present value method. Scheduled 727 traffic and existing VASI, ILS, and collocated DME ground station facilities are summarized for domestic airports used by 727 operators.

Allison, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A study of the cost-effective markets for new technology agricultural aircraft

A previously developed data base was used to estimate the regional and total U.S. cost-effective markets for a new technology agricultural aircraft as incorporating features which could result from NASA-sponsored aerial applications research. The results show that the long-term market penetration of a new technology aircraft would be near 3,000 aircraft. This market penetration would be attained in approximately 20 years. Annual sales would be about 200 aircraft after 5 to 6 years of introduction. The net present value of cost savings benefit which this aircraft would yield (measured on an infinite horizon basis) would be about $35 million counted at a 10 percent discount rate and $120 million at a 5 percent discount rate. At both discount rates the present value of cost savings exceeds the present value of research and development (R&D) costs estimated for the development of the technology base needed for the proposed aircraft. These results are quite conservative as they have been derived neglecting future growth in the agricultural aviation industry, which has been averaging about 12 percent per year over the past several years.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Requirements for a mobile communications satellite system. Volume 1: Executive summary

Three types of satellite-aided mobile communications are considered for users in areas not served by (terrestrial) cellular radio systems. In System 1, mobile units are provided a direct satellite link to a gateway station, which serves as the interface to the terrestrial toll network. In System 2, a terrestrial radio link similar to those in cellular systems connects the mobile unit to a translator station; each translator relays the traffic from mobile units in its vicinity, via satellite, to the regional gateway. It is not feasible for System 2 to provide ubiquitous coverage. Therefore, System 3 is introduced, in which the small percentage of users not within range of a translator are provided a direct satellite link as in System 1. While System 2 can operate with leased satellite capacity, Systems 1 and 3 require a dedicated satellite. A major portion of this study is concerned with the design of a satellite for System 1. A weight limit of 10,000 lbs, corresponding to the projected 1990 STS capability, is imposed on the design. Frequency re-use of the allocated spectrum, through multiple satellite beams, is employed to generate the specified system capacity. Both offset-fed and center-fed reflectors are considered. For an assumed 10-MHz allocation and a population of 350,000 subscribers, a two-satellite system is required. The reflector diameters corresponding to offset-fed and center-fed geometries are 46 m and 62 m, respectively. Thus, large-space-structure technology is inherent to the implementation of System 1. In addition to establishing the technical requirements for the three types of satellite systems, the monthly service charge needed to provide a specified return on invested capital is computed. A net present value analysis is used for this purpose.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The economics of satellite retrieval

The economics of space operations with and without the Space Station have been studied in terms of the financial performance of a typical communications-satellite business venture. A stochastic Monte-Carlo communications-satellite business model is employed which includes factors such as satellite configuration, random and wearout failures, reliability of launch and space operations, stand-down time resulting from failures, and insurance by operation. Financial performance impacts have been evaluated in terms of the magnitude of investment, net present value, and return on investment.

Price, Kent M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗