Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “net primary production”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Aboveground rather than belowground productivity drives variability in Miscanthus x giganteus net primary productivity

This dataset contains the data used for the publication “Aboveground rather than belowground productivity drives variability in Miscanthus x giganteus net primary productivity”. This dataset contains Miscanthus x giganteus biomass, carbon, and nitrogen tissue data for aboveground and belowground plant parts collected in 2021 for three different sites in Iowa with three different nitrogen application rates. Data at the Iowa sites were collected via biometric hand harvesting, belowground excavations, and soil coring both in-clump and beside-clump. Data were collected at two collection timepoints to calculate the contributions of belowground parts to Miscanthus x giganteus net primary productivity. This dataset also includes Miscanthus x giganteus and Switchgrass soil coring and excavation data collected in 2012 at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign Energy Farm.

Belowground Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aboveground Rather Than Belowground Productivity Drives Variability in Miscanthus × giganteus Net Primary Productivity

Quantifying the carbon (C) uptake of Miscanthus × giganteus ( M × g ) in both aboveground and belowground structures (e.g., net primary productivity (NPP)) and differences among methodological approaches is crucial. Our objectives were to directly measure Mxg NPP and evaluate the effects of nitrogen application, location, and belowground biomass sampling methods. We hypothesize that increased nitrogen application increases the overall NPP of M × g and that quantifying rhizome biomass using excavations will produce the lowest variability between replicates. We collected biomass from mature M × g stands from three locations in Iowa with three nitrogen application rates and one site in Illinois. We destructively sampled at two time points, when rhizome mass is anticipated to be at a minimum (initial) and anticipated to be at its maximum (peak). Biomass was collected from 1 × 1 m quadrats in which one in-clump and one beside-clump cores were collected and then excavated to 30 cm depth to extract all rhizomes. We found that aboveground M × g NPP ranged from 15.4 Mg DM ha –1 year –1 to 36.4 Mg DM ha –1 year–1 and belowground M × g NPP ranged from 4.4 Mg DM ha –1 year –1 to 19.6 Mg DM ha –1 year –1 . M × g NPP varied across sites, fertilization, and calculation assumptions. Aboveground NPP (yield) was on average 68.7% of the total NPP. Root-to-shoot ratios at peak biomass decreased with nitrogen application rate, from an average of 1.9 for 0 N plots to 0.89 for 224 N fertilized plots. There was more variation in core data than from excavations; however, when in-clump and beside-clump cores were averaged together, core and excavation averages were not different. Overall, these results show that the range of mature M × g NPP is driven by aboveground productivity, influenced by nitrogen application and site. Our results provide useful data to constrain agro-ecosystem models and provide crucial insights for future perennial belowground sampling.

Hartman, Theodore [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Cha↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic integration of GCAM-Demeter and CLUBS-Select: Datasets on urban extensification effects on land cover, crop yields, net primary production, and CO2 emissions

The datasets provide background data from McManamay et al. (2024) Nature Communications Earth and Environment. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from GCAM-Demeter with projected dynamic urban lands from SELECT from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine stress to the land system, compromised crop production, and losses in Net Primary Production (NPP), that can arise from the competition over land resources. These datasets include changes to non-urban land use and land cover, estimated losses in crop yields, losses in NPP, and increases in CO2 emissions.

Earth Systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal acclimation of plant photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration in a northern peatland

Peatlands contain one-third of global soil carbon (C), but the responses of peatland ecosystems to long-term warming are not well understood. Here, we pursue an emergent understanding of warming effects on ecosystem C fluxes at peatlands by constraining a process-oriented model, the terrestrial ECOsystem model, with observational data from a long-term warming experiment at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments site. Model-based assessments show that ecosystem-level photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration exhibited significant thermal acclimation, with temperature sensitivities being linearly decreased with warming. Using the thermal-acclimated parameter values, simulated gross primary production, net primary production, and plant autotrophic respiration (R a ), were all lower than those simulated with non-thermal acclimated parameter values. In contrast, ecosystem respiration simulated with thermal acclimated parameter values was higher than that simulated with non-thermal acclimated parameter values. Net ecosystem CO 2 exchange was much higher after constraining model parameters with observational data from the warming treatments, releasing C at a rate of 28.3 g C m -2 yr -1 °C -1 . Our data-model integration study suggests that peatlands are likely to release more C than previously estimated. Earth system models may overestimate C uptake by peatlands under warming if physiological thermal acclimation of plants is not incorporated. Thus, it is critical to consider the long-term physiological thermal acclimation of plants in the models to better predict global C dynamics under future climate and their feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonnegligible cascading impacts of global urban expansion on net primary productivity

Accelerated global urban expansion not only directly occupies surrounding ecosystems, but also induces cascading losses of natural vegetation elsewhere through cropland displacement. Yet, how such effects alter the net primary productivity (NPP) worldwide remains unclear. Here, we quantified the direct and cascading impacts of global urban expansion on terrestrial NPP from 1992 to 2020 and projected the impacts under the shared socioeconomic pathways framework by 2100. We found that global urban expansion caused a cascading loss of 29.2 to 63.9 Tg C/year of terrestrial NPP in the historical period (1992–2020), accounting for 13–29% of the total direct NPP loss. Instead, our projections indicate that during 2020–2100, mainly due to the increased relocation of displaced croplands to low-productive ecosystems, the cascading impacts gradually change from negative to positive, leading to a net NPP increase. Such an increase may offset up to 7% of the total direct NPP loss, better balancing crop compensation with NPP maintenance. Our findings highlight the unexpected large cascading impacts of urban expansion on the carbon cycle and stress the importance of regulating land transitions to curtail land-use emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biodiversity and Stoichiometric Plasticity Increase Pico‐Phytoplankton Contributions to Marine Net Primary Productivity and the Biological Pump

Earth System Models generally predict increasing upper ocean stratification from 21st century warming, which will cause a decrease in the vertical nutrient flux forcing declines in marine net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon export. Recent advances in quantifying marine ecosystem carbon to nutrient stoichiometry have identified large latitudinal and biome variability, with low-latitude oligotrophic systems harboring pico-sized phytoplankton exhibiting large phosphorus to carbon cellular plasticity. The climate forced changes in nutrient flux stoichiometry and phytoplankton community composition are thus likely to alter the ocean's biogeochemical response and feedback with the carbon-climate system. We have added three pico-phytoplankton functional types within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling component of the Community Earth System Model while incorporating variable cellular phosphorus to carbon stoichiometry for all represented phytoplankton types. The model simulates Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations that dominate the productivity and sinking carbon export of the tropical and subtropical ocean, and pico-eukaryote populations that contribute significantly to productivity and export within the subtropical to mid-latitude transition zone, with the western subtropical regions of each basin supporting the most P-poor stoichiometries. Subtropical gyre recirculation regions along the poleward flanks of surface western boundary currents are identified as regional hotspots of enhanced carbon export exhibiting C-rich/P-poor stoichiometry, preferentially inhabited by pico-eukaryotes and diatoms. Collectively, pico-phytoplankton contribute ∼58% of global NPP and ∼46% of global particulate organic carbon export below 100 m through direct and ecosystem processing pathways. Biodiversity and cellular nutrient plasticity in marine pico-phytoplankton combine to increase their contributions to ocean productivity and the biological carbon pump.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Above-ground net primary productivity in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forest: Contributions of rainfall, forest age and soil

Identifying factors controlling forest productivity is critical to understanding forest-climate change feedbacks, modelling vegetation dynamics and carbon finance schemes. However, little research has focused on productivity in regenerating tropical forests which are expanding in their fraction of global area have an order of magnitude larger carbon uptake rates relative to older forest. Here We examined above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components (wood production and litterfall) over 10 years in forest plots that vary in successional age, soil characteristics and species composition using band dendrometers and litterfall traps in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forests in northwestern Costa Rica. We show that the components of ANPP are differentially driven by age and annual rainfall and that local soil variation is important. Total ANPP was explained by a combination of age, annual rainfall and soil variation. Wood production comprised 35% of ANPP on average across sites and years, and was explained by annual rainfall but not forest age. Conversely, litterfall increased with forest age and soil fertility yet was not affected by annual rainfall. In this region, edaphic variability is highly correlated with plant community composition. Thus, variation in ecosystem processes explained by soil may also be partially explained by species composition. These results suggest that future changes in annual rainfall can alter the secondary forest carbon sink, but this effect will be buffered by the litterfall flux which varies little among years. In determining the long-term strength of the secondary forest carbon sink, both rainfall and forest age will be critical variables to track. We also conclude that detailed understanding of local site variation in soils and plant community may be required to accurately predict the impact of changing rainfall on forest carbon uptake. Synthesis. We show that in seasonally dry tropical forest, annual rainfall has a positive relationship with the growth of above-ground woody tissues of trees and that droughts lead to significant reductions in above-ground productivity. These results provide evidence for climate change—carbon cycle feedbacks in the seasonal tropics and highlight the value of longitudinal data on forest regeneration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declines in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.

resistance↗
DOE OSTI2021

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year -1 , was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year -1 ) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking groundwater variability to ecosystem carbon and water use efficiencies across India

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) and water use efficiency (WUE) are important indicators of ecosystem health, reflecting the balance between carbon uptake and allocation, and the relationship between carbon assimilation and water loss. Although India shows large spatiotemporal variation in water table depth (WTD), and increasing groundwater stress, the influence of WTD on ecosystem functioning remains underexplored. This study uses satellite-based, modeled, and in-situ datasets to (1) quantify variations in CUE and WUE under shallow (SWTD) and deep (DWTD) WTD conditions across six homogeneous meteorological regions (HMRs), (2) evaluate temporal roles of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and evapotranspiration (ET) in driving these efficiencies, and (3) examine temporal responses to WTD shifts. SWTD regions generally showed 12 to 18 % higher GPP, 10 to 15 % higher NPP, and 10 to 20 % higher ET than DWTD zones, especially in semi-arid croplands and forests, leading to 8 to 12 % higher CUE and WUE. However, in humid and heavily irrigated regions such as northeastern and hilly India, CUE was up to 10 % higher in DWTD zones, possibly due to reduced respiration and better soil aeration compared to SWTD areas affected by waterlogging. During the Kharif (wet) season, DWTD croplands in humid zones had higher efficiencies, while in the Rabi (dry) season, SWTD croplands in northern India benefited from irrigation and cooler temperatures. These results highlight strong influence of WTD on carbon and water use processes and support the need for region-specific groundwater strategies.

Carbon use efficiency↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-ready benchmarks for NPP, ANPP, litter fluxes, and recruitment into the 1 cm dbh size class

The intended use of this dataset is to serve as an observational benchmark to evaluate model predictions of NPP, ANPP, litter fluxes, and recruitment at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. This dataset contains four CSV files and one text file. “Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.csv” provides estimates of annual ecosystem-level reproductive litter flux (R), leaf litter flux (L), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and net primary productivity (NPP) for 61 field plots throughout tropical, temperate, and boreal forest biomes. An additional 499 plots (n = 550) include estimates of just R, L, and R/L. Each row reports a distinct set of estimates for one sampling interval at one plot. “Metadata-Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.csv” contains field descriptions for all data fields in “Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.csv”. “References-Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.txt” contains full references to the original studies used to produce the observations at each plot included in the data. “Benchmarks-Recruitment.csv” provides estimates of species-level recruitment rates into the 1 cm dbh size class at four CTFS-ForestGeo sites using methods that account for unobserved mortality of new recruits between census intervals (Kohyama et al., 2018). “Metadata-Benchmarks-Recruitment.csv” contains field descriptions for all data fields in “Benchmarks-Recruitment.csv”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Litterfall and Branchfall Mass Flux in Malaysia Lambir Hills GEM plots (2008-2010)

This data package includes two folders: Litterfall and Branchfall. The Litterfall folder includes three files: "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Litterfall_Mass_Flux_Data_2008_to_2010.csv" includes the litterfall data, the "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Litterfall_Metadata.xlx" includes the descripion of the columns in the data file, and the PDF file "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Litterfall_Methods_Description" includes a brief description of the litterfall sampling methods. The Branchfall Folder includes four files: the "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Branchfall_Data_2009_to_2010.csv" file includes the branchfall data, the "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Branchfall_Metadata_2009_to_2010.xlsx" includes the description of the columns in the csv data file, the "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Branchfall_Methods_Description.pdf" includes a brief description of the branchfall collection methods, and the "GEM_Lambir_Hills_Branchfall_Data_Metadata_Methods_TransectSums.xlx" includes data, metadata, methods description, and a 'TransectsSums' tab where the reader can find the sum of the branchfall data in each transect Litterfall and Branchfall data were collected to quantify canopy productivity and net primary productivity allocated to branch turnover, which are components of the total net primary productivity and ecosystem carbon budget. The methods follow the Global Ecosystems Monitoring (GEM) protocols (see gem.tropicalforests.ox.ac.uk). The data collection took place from 2008 to 2010 in two 1-ha GEM plots in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia, within the Lambir 52-ha ForestGEO plots. One of the plots was located on clay soil and the other on sandy loam. The site is an old-growth moist tropical forest dominated by Dipterocarpacea. The climate is moist tropical and aseasonal. Litterfall was collected biweekly from 25 litter traps per plot. Branchfall was estimated using four 100-m transects, which were surveyed every two months.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km 2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr −1 , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO 2 yr −1 . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Warming of alpine tundra enhances belowground production and shifts community towards resource acquisition traits"

This archive contains data used to draw conclusions in “Warming of alpine tundra enhances belowground production and shifts community towards resource acquisition traits”, by Yang et al. 2020. Data were collected on Niwot Ridge, in an alpine meadow within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) field sites in Colorado, USA. Samples were also processed in the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, in Boise, Idaho. File formats in this archive include comma-separated values (.csv), portable document format (.pdf), Microsoft Excel (.xlsx), and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). Leaf scans are .jpg images, and root scans are .tiff/.tif images.The .csv files can be opened using R, Microsoft Excel, or any simple text-editing software such as TextEdit and Notepad. Microsoft Excel files can be opened using Microsoft Excel, and .pdf files can be opened with Adobe Acrobat Reader, Preview, or other compatible programs. Scanned images can be opened using any photo and/or picture viewing software.The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened by any programs compatible with shapefiles, such as the ArcGIS Desktop suite, and QGIS.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Measures of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) are required to understand whether aboveground net primary production (ANPP) changes reflect changes in allocation or are indicative of a whole plant NPP response. Plant functional traits provide a key way to scale from the individual plant to the community level, and provide insight into drivers of NPP responses to environmental change. We used infrared heaters to warm an alpine plant community at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, and applied supplemental water to compensate for soil water loss induced by warming. We measured ANPP, BNPP, and leaf and root functional traits across treatments after 5 years of continuous warming. Community-level ANPP and total NPP (ANPP + BNPP) did not respond to heating or watering, but BNPP increased in response to heating. Heating decreased community-level leaf dry matter content and increased total root length, indicating a shift in strategy from resource conservation to acquisition in response to warming.

13C/12C isotope ratio↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diverging climate response of corn yield and carbon use efficiency across the U.S.

Abstract In this paper, we developed an open-source package to analyze the overall trend and responses of both carbon use efficiency (CUE) and corn yield to climate factors for the contiguous United States. Our algorithm enables automatic retrieval of remote sensing data through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agricultural production data at the county level through application programming interface (API). Firstly, we integrated satellite products of net primary productivity and gross primary productivity based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, and climatic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Secondly, we calculated CUE and commonly used climate metrics. Thirdly, we investigated the spatial heterogeneity of these variables. We applied a random forest algorithm to identify the key climate drivers of CUE and crop yield, and estimated the responses of CUE and yield to climate variability using the spatial moving window regression across the U.S. Our results show that growing degree days (GDD) has the highest predictive power for both CUE and yield, while extreme degree days (EDD) is the least important explanatory variable. Moreover, we observed that in most areas of the U.S., yield increases or stays the same with higher GDD and precipitation. However, CUE decreases with higher GDD in the north and shows more mixed and fragmented interactions in the south. Notably, there are some exceptions where yield is negatively correlated with precipitation in the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. As global warming continues, we anticipate a decrease in CUE throughout the vast northern part of the country, despite the possibility of yield remaining stable or increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Warming of alpine tundra enhances belowground production and shifts community towards resource acquisition traits

Abstract Climate warming is expected to stimulate plant growth in high‐elevation and high‐latitude ecosystems, significantly increasing aboveground net primary production (ANPP). However, the effects of simultaneous changes in temperature, snowmelt timing, and summer water availability on total net primary production (NPP)—and elucidation of both above‐ and belowground responses—remain an important area in need of further study. In particular, measures of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) are required to understand whether ANPP changes reflect changes in allocation or are indicative of a whole plant NPP response. Further, plant functional traits provide a key way to scale from the individual plant to the community level and provide insight into drivers of NPP responses to environmental change. We used infrared heaters to warm an alpine plant community at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, and applied supplemental water to compensate for soil water loss induced by warming. We measured ANPP, BNPP, and leaf and root functional traits across treatments after 5 yr of continuous warming. Community‐level ANPP and total NPP (ANPP + BNPP) did not respond to heating or watering, but BNPP increased in response to heating. Heating decreased community‐level leaf dry matter content and increased total root length, indicating a shift in strategy from resource conservation to acquisition in response to warming. Water use efficiency (WUE) decreased with heating, suggesting alleviation of moisture constraints that may have enabled the plant community to increase productivity. Heating may have decreased WUE by melting snow earlier and creating more days early in the growing season with adequate soil moisture, but stimulated dry mass investment in roots as soils dried down later in the growing season. Overall, this study highlights how ANPP and BNPP responses to climate change can diverge, and encourages a closer examination of belowground processes, especially in alpine systems, where the majority of NPP occurs belowground.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗