Integrated Predictive Systems for Solar Energy with Modeling, Post Processing and Machine Learning
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14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
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Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration
Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.
demand forecasting, Microgrid, power system restor↗
Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation Disaggregation using Consumer Mixture Models
To facilitate deep penetration of solar energy in smart grids, we need high observability of solar generation at the edges of the grid. Current advanced metering infrastructures (AMI) only monitor the aggregated measurements from net-metered households, but disaggregated consumption and solar generation components are required for grid optimizations. We propose an unsupervised disaggregation model for disaggregating solar generation from AMI measurements without the need of training data. The model requires only AMI measurements from consumers in a region and the solar irradiance as input, and models the consumption of consumers by neighboring households without rooftop photovoltaics (PV) to perform the disaggregation. We evaluate our results on a real life dataset from Austin, Texas. We show that our model is able to disaggregate consumption and solar generation measurements with 42.24% and 31.67% less mean squared error, respectively, in comparison to a baseline technique that uses supervised learning. This shows that our model is capable of disaggregating historical data even if the dataset has no training data and only contains minimal exogenous data.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Implications of Battery Storage for Solar Net-Metering Reforms
Compensation structures for residential solar PV are evolving toward a model that incentivizes the use of battery storage to maximize solar self-consumption. Using metered data from 1,800 residential customers across six U.S. utilities, we show that batteries operated solely in this manner often provide no grid value, due to misalignment with market prices. Incentivizing customers to discharge storage in response to market prices, particularly on infrequent peak load days would greatly enhance storage dispatch value. However, doing so requires consideration of local distribution network impacts. We illustrate a net billing design that yields a storage dispatch value equal to 50-70% of its maximum potential market value, without materially degrading solar self-consumption levels or increasing local grid stress.
Barbose, Galen↗