Predicting PEMFC performance from a volumetric image of catalyst layer structure using pore network modeling
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Sadeghi, Mohammad Amin↗
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Analyzing Infrastructure Interdependencies Using Network-Of-Networks Modeling
Infrastructure networks play a crucial role in our day-to-day lives, and modeling these infrastructure networks can help decisionmakers prepare for and respond to disruptions such as natural disasters or cyberattacks. Because these infrastructure networks depend on each other, it is not sufficient to model a single network in isolation. We build on previous single-network-modeling techniques to develop a methodology for modeling infrastructure interdependencies as a Network-of-Networks. Using distributionlevel data from a real U.S. city on the power grid, road geometry, and hospital locations, we show how to apply this methodology to modeling three of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Critical Infrastructure Sectors: Healthcare, Transportation, and Energy. We also analyze three primary metrics before and after a simulated disaster: 1) impact on hospital access; 2) road network impact with the change in betweenness centrality; 3) electric customer outage. We simulate three different disruptions: 1) road flooding from nearby rivers; 2) a malicious actor targeting the road networks; 3) a malicious actor targeting the electric grid. Finally, we discuss how our methodology can be applied to additional infrastructure networks and types of disruption, and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques may be incorporated into this methodology for further research.
Scherrer, Evan [Drake University, Iowa]↗
Evaluation of PV Module Packaging Strategies of Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Using Degradation Pathway Network Modeling
As the PV industry is rapidly expanding, it is important to thoroughly investigate the long-term impact of packaging strategies on the performance of PV modules. In this study, the variants in sets differ on the basis of manufacturer (A/B), encapsulant (EVA/POE), rear encapsulant (UV-cutoff/opaque/transparent), module architecture (GB/DG) and cell type (monofacial/bifacial). The minimodules were exposed for 2520 hours in modified damp heat, with or without full spectrum light. Every 504 hours, stepwise electrical characterization techniques were employed to track changes in minimodules. Degradation pathway modeling using network structural equation modeling was employed to study pairwise relationships between variables and service lifetime prediction in minimodules. Through this study, differences in quality control are identified in minimodules made by different manufacturers. Minimodules with UV-cutoff rear encapsulant show relatively better stability, whereas the ones with opaque rear encapsulant show greater power loss. In addition, GB having UV-cutoff rear encapsulation and GB with POE having opaque rear encapsulation were identified to be stable as they lack a best model fit. Here, the primary power loss mechanism in degrading variants is interconnect corrosion.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Improved pore network models to simulate single-phase flow in porous media by coupling with lattice Boltzmann method
In this paper, different pore network models to simulate single-phase flow in porous media are built and their accuracy is evaluated. In addition to the conventional pore network model (CPNM) which consists of regular pore bodies and throat bonds, three improved pore network models (IPNMs) are developed allowing to better describing the real pore and throat geometry. The first improved pore network model (IPNM1) replaces the regular throat bond with a throat bond showing the real throat cross section. The second improvement (IPNM2) uses a series of sub-throat bonds with varying cross sections to better describe the real throat geometry, which is firstly proposed in this paper. The third model (IPNM3) extracts the real pore-throat-pore geometry without simplification. The conductance of fluid flow through these more realistic throat bonds is calculated by the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The accuracy and computational efficiency of the different pore network models are evaluated taking the LBM simulation over the whole porous medium as reference solution. The global permeability and detailed pressure distributions in the pores for the different pore network models are validated. The results show that the accuracy of the pore network model increases from CPNM to IPNM3, but at the expense of increasing computational cost. This study suggests that IPNM3 can replace a whole-domain LBM simulation with similar accuracy but much lower computational cost. As a first-order approximation the newly proposed IPNM2 is suggested as good compromise between accuracy and computational cost.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Uncertainty quantification of graph convolution neural network models of evolving processes
The application of neural network models to scientific machine learning tasks has proliferated in recent years. In particular, neural networks have proved to be adept at modeling processes with spatial–temporal complexity. Nevertheless, these highly parameterized models have garnered skepticism in their ability to produce outputs with quantified error bounds over the regimes of interest. Hence there is a need to find uncertainty quantification methods that are suitable for neural networks. In this work we present comparisons of the parametric uncertainty quantification of neural networks modeling complex spatial–temporal processes with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Stein variational gradient descent and its projected variant. Specifically we apply these methods to graph convolutional neural network models of evolving systems modeled with recurrent neural network and neural ordinary differential equations architectures. We show that Stein variational inference is a viable alternative to Monte Carlo methods with some clear advantages for complex neural network models. For our exemplars, Stein variational interference gave similar pushed forward uncertainty profiles through time compared to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, albeit with generally more generous variance. As a result, projected Stein variational gradient descent also produced similar uncertainty profiles to the non-projected counterpart, but large reductions in the active weight space were confounded by the stability of the neural network predictions and the convoluted likelihood landscape.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Using Direct Numerical Simulation of Pore-Level Events to Improve Pore-Network Models for Prediction of Residual Trapping of CO2
Direct numerical simulation and pore-network modeling are common approaches to study the physics of two-phase flow through natural rocks. For assessment of the long-term performance of geological sequestration of CO 2 , it is important to model the full drainage-imbibition cycle to provide an accurate estimate of the trapped CO 2 . While direct numerical simulation using pore geometry from micro-CT rock images accurately models two-phase flow physics, it is computationally prohibitive for large rock volumes. On the other hand, pore-network modeling on networks extracted from micro-CT rock images is computationally efficient but utilizes simplified physics in idealized geometric pore elements. This study uses the lattice-Boltzmann method for direct numerical simulation of CO 2 -brine flow in idealized pore elements to develop a new set of pore-level flow models for the pore-body filling and snap-off events in pore-network modeling of imbibition. Lattice-Boltzmann simulations are conducted on typical idealized pore-network configurations, and the interface evolution and local capillary pressure are evaluated to develop modified equations of local threshold capillary pressure of pore elements as a function of shape factor and other geometrical parameters. The modified equations are then incorporated into a quasi-static pore-network flow solver. The modified model is applied on extracted pore-network of sandstone samples, and saturation of residual trapped CO 2 is computed for a drainage-imbibition cycle. The modified model yields different statistics of pore-level events compared with the original model; in particular, the occurrence of snap-off in pore-throats is reduced resulting in a more frontal displacement pattern along the main injection direction. Compared to the original model, the modified model is in closer agreement with the residual trapped CO 2 obtained from core flow experiments and direct numerical simulation.
Kohanpur, Amir H.↗
Modeling Air Traffic Management Technologies with a Queuing Network Model of the National Airspace System
This report describes an integrated model of air traffic management (ATM) tools under development in two National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs -Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) and Advanced Air Transport Technologies (AATT). The model is made by adjusting parameters of LMINET, a queuing network model of the National Airspace System (NAS), which the Logistics Management Institute (LMI) developed for NASA. Operating LMINET with models of various combinations of TAP and AATT will give quantitative information about the effects of the tools on operations of the NAS. The costs of delays under different scenarios are calculated. An extension of Air Carrier Investment Model (ACIM) under ASAC developed by the Institute for NASA maps the technologies' impacts on NASA operations into cross-comparable benefits estimates for technologies and sets of technologies.
Long, Dou↗
Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction
The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Towards a robust out-of-the-box neural network model for genomic data
The accurate prediction of biological features from genomic data is paramount for precision medicine and sustainable agriculture. For decades, neural network models have been widely popular in fields like computer vision, astrophysics and targeted marketing given their prediction accuracy and their robust performance under big data settings. Yet neural network models have not made a successful transition into the medical and biological world due to the ubiquitous characteristics of biological data such as modest sample sizes, sparsity, and extreme heterogeneity. Here, we investigate the robustness, generalization potential and prediction accuracy of widely used convolutional neural network and natural language processing models with a variety of heterogeneous genomic datasets. Mainly, recurrent neural network models outperform convolutional neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy, overfitting and transferability across the datasets under study. While the perspective of a robust out-of-the-box neural network model is out of reach, we identify certain model characteristics that translate well across datasets and could serve as a baseline model for translational researchers.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Development of task network models of human performance in microgravity
This paper discusses the utility of task-network modeling for quantifying human performance variability in microgravity. The data are gathered for: (1) improving current methodologies for assessing human performance and workload in the operational space environment; (2) developing tools for assessing alternative system designs; and (3) developing an integrated set of methodologies for the evaluation of performance degradation during extended duration spaceflight. The evaluation entailed an analysis of the Remote Manipulator System payload-grapple task performed on many shuttle missions. Task-network modeling can be used as a tool for assessing and enhancing human performance in man-machine systems, particularly for modeling long-duration manned spaceflight. Task-network modeling can be directed toward improving system efficiency by increasing the understanding of basic capabilities of the human component in the system and the factors that influence these capabilities.
Diaz, Manuel F.↗
Simulators for quantum network modeling: A comprehensive review
Quantum network research is exploring new networking protocols, physics-based hardware and novel experiments to demonstrate how quantum distribution will work over large distances. Current work explores much of these concepts in simulations, that are developed to understand how quantum networking will be set up and researchers can experiment virtually. Exposing flaws in network designs, like unsustainable topologies, or develop protocols that efficiently utilize network resources, simulators can also help assess whether workloads are balanced across virtual machines in the network. However, much of these simulation models come without reliable verification methods, for testing performance in real deployments. Here, in this paper, we present a review of, to the best of our knowledge, currently used toolkits for modeling quantum networks. With these toolkits and standardized validation techniques, we can lay down the foundations for more accurate and reliable quantum network simulators.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Some queuing network models of computer systems
Queuing network models of a computer system operating with a single workload type are presented. Program algorithms are adapted for use on the Texas Instruments SR-52 programmable calculator. By slightly altering the algorithm to process the G and H matrices row by row instead of column by column, six devices and an unlimited job/terminal population could be handled on the SR-52. Techniques are also introduced for handling a simple load dependent server and for studying interactive systems with fixed multiprogramming limits.
Herndon, E. S.↗
Pore-scale simulation of drying in porous media using a hybrid lattice Boltzmann: pore network model
In this work, a hybrid method coupling a pseudo-potential lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) and a pore network model (PNM) to simulate drying in porous media is proposed. Based on the watershed method, the porous medium is firstly decomposed into pore regions. According to the liquid–vapor phase distribution at a given time, the pore regions are further divided into four pore types, namely two-phase pores where a liquid–vapor interface exists, buffer pores next to the two-phase pores, single-liquid and single-vapor phase pores. The pseudo-potential LBM is used in the two-phase and buffer pores to simulate liquid drying and track the movement of the interfaces, while the single-phase PNM simulations are conducted in the buffer and single-phase pores to simulate vapor or liquid flow. LBM and PNM are coupled in the buffer pores through exchange of boundary information. The hybrid method is applied to simulate liquid drying in a porous medium. The whole-domain LBM simulation is considered as the reference solution to validate the hybrid method. Liquid saturation variation during the drying process and detailed phase and pressure distributions obtained by the two methods match quite well, demonstrating the accuracy of the hybrid method. For the specific case studied, the hybrid method saves more than 60% computational time compared to the whole-domain LBM simulation. In addition, the speedup of the hybrid method becomes more significant for a larger computational domain. In summary, the hybrid method developed in this work combines the accuracy of LBM and the efficiency of PNM to simulate drying in porous media at pore scale and can lead to significant reduction of computation time, thus allowing the pore-scale consideration of drying in larger porous systems.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Utah FORGE: 2024 Discrete Fracture Network Model Data
The Utah FORGE 2024 Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model dataset provides a set of files representing discrete fracture network modeling for the FORGE site near Milford, Utah. The dataset includes four distinct DFN model file sets, each corresponding to different time frames and modeling approaches in 2024. These models characterize both natural and induced fractures in the geothermal reservoir, which consists of crystalline granitic and metamorphic rock approximately 8,000 feet below the ground surface. The dataset includes a reference DFN model from February 2024 that incorporates planar fractures and well trajectories, as well as upscaled permeability, porosity, compressibility, and storage values on specified grids. Additionally, there are models based on new microseismic (MEQ) data from May and July 2024, including fracture planes fitted to the latest MEQ catalog datasets, tensile fractures from hydraulic stimulation, and an alternative connected DFN for modeling purposes. Coordinate data is provided in both global and local frames, with detailed instructions on the transformations used to align with principal stress orientations. The dataset also includes notes and calculation files for estimating fracture sizes and differences between various fracture sets. There are subfolders for Global Coordinates and Local Coordinates. To move from the global to the local coordinate frame, fractures and wells were a) rotated 20 degrees counterclockwise looking down about the global point (335376.400482041, 4263189.99998761, 250.093546450195) to better align with the principal stresses; and b) translated by (-335408.68, -4263010.9, 1150). Upscaled permeability values using the _XYZ suffix show directions with respect to the global XYZ coordinate frame, while those using the _IJK suffix are aligned with local coordinate frame.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
A genoscape–network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird
Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Structured Neural Network Modeling for Developing Digital Twins Models of Hydropower Generation Units
Dynamic modeling is a key part in the development of digital twin (DT) for dynamic systems. This is true for hydropower systems, where whole system modeling including penstock, turbine and generators, etc is important in realizing actuate modeling for the real systems. On the other hand, in response to the large variations of the power demand due to increased penetration of renewables such as wind and solar, hydropower systems are now required to operate in a large power generation range. This situation triggers the nonlinear characteristics of the generation unit with respect to its models. As such, it is imperative to use data driven modeling such as neural networks to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydropower generation unit. To achieve this objective, this study constructs a modeling and learning algorithm integrated with multiple structured neural network models for the modeling of turbine shaft speed, penstock pressure, and generator power output based on the generator power control setpoint, field current, and field voltage. In addition, the study uses the hydropower data from Tacoma Public Utilities to train and validate the proposed neural network algorithm. The results have shown that this structured neural network modeling approach can learn the system dynamics effectively by using the real-time data collected from the hydropower system with the desired modeling results.
Wang, Hong↗
Fluid – Fluid Interfacial Area and Its Impact on Relative Permeability - A Pore Network Modeling Study
Abstract Relative permeability (kr) is commonly modeled as an empirical function of phase saturation. Although current empirical models can provide a good match of one or two measured relative permeabilities using saturation alone, they are unable to predict relative permeabilities well when there is hysteresis or when physical properties such as wettability change. Further, current models often result in relative permeability discontinuities that can cause convergence and accuracy problems in simulation. To overcome these problems, recent research has modeled relative permeability as a state function of both saturation (S) and phase connectivity (X). Pore network modeling (PNM) data, however, shows small differences in relative permeability for the same S-X value when approached from a different flow direction. This paper examines the impact of one additional Minkowski parameter (Mecke and Arns, 2005), the fluid-fluid interfacial area, on relative permeability to identify if that satisfactorily explains this discrepancy. We calculate the total fluid-fluid interfacial areas (IA) during two-phase (oil/water) flow in porous media using pore network modeling. The area is calculated from PNM simulations using the areas associated with corners and throats in pore elements of different shapes. The pore network is modeled after a Bentheimer sandstone, using square, triangular, and circular pore shapes. Simulations were conducted for numerous primary drainage and imbibition cycles at a constant contact angle of 0° for the wetting phase. Simultaneous measurements of capillary pressure, relative permeability, saturation, and phase connectivity are made for each displacement. Fluid-fluid interfacial area is calculated from the PNM capillary pressure, the fluid location in the pore elements, and the pore element dimensional data. The results show that differences in the relative permeability at the same (S,X) point is explained well by differences in the fluid-fluid interfacial area (IA). That is, for a larger change in IA at these intersection points, the permeability difference is greater. That difference in relative permeability approaches zero as the difference in IA approaches zero. This confirms that relative permeability can be modeled better as a unique function of S, X, and IA. The results also show that an increase in IA restricts flow decreasing the nonwetting (oil) phase permeability. This decrease is caused by an increase in the throat area fraction compared to the corner area as the total area IA increases. The wetting phase relative permeability, however, shows the inverse trend, in that its relative permeability is greater when IA becomes larger owing to a greater fraction of the total area associated with the corners. The area IA, however, impacts the nonwetting phase relative permeability more than the wetting phase relative permeability. Corner flow improves the wetting phase relative permeability because the wetting phase is continuous there. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that relative permeability a is more sensitive to change in S than they are for IA for the case studied implying that if only two parameters are used to model relative permeability it is better to choose S and X.
Engineering↗