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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF COSMIC VOIDS IN SIMULATIONS AND MOCKS

Following up on previous studies, we complete here a full analysis of the void size distributions of the Cosmic Void Catalog based on three different simulation and mock catalogs: dark matter (DM), haloes, and galaxies. Based on this analysis, we attempt to answer two questions: Is a three-parameter log-normal distribution a good candidate to satisfy the void size distributions obtained from different types of environments? Is there a direct relation between the shape parameters of the void size distribution and the environmental effects? In an attempt to answer these questions, we find here that all void size distributions of these data samples satisfy the three-parameter log-normal distribution whether the environment is dominated by DM, haloes, or galaxies. In addition, the shape parameters of the three-parameter log-normal void size distribution seem highly affected by environment, particularly existing substructures. Therefore, we show two quantitative relations given by linear equations between the skewness and the maximum tree depth, and between the variance of the void size distribution and the maximum tree depth, directly from the simulated data. In addition to this, we find that the percentage of voids with nonzero central density in the data sets has a critical importance. If the number of voids with nonzero central density reaches ≥3.84% in a simulation/mock sample, then a second population is observed in the void size distributions. This second population emerges as a second peak in the log-normal void size distribution at larger radius.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasars with large proper motions: A selection from the LQAC-5 catalogue combined with Gaia EDR3: Focusing on astrometric and photometric properties

Thanks to the cross-identification between the Gaia EDR3 (E-Data Release 3) catalogue and the quasars’ compiled catalogue LQAC-5 (Large Quasar Astrometric Catalogue-5), accurate astrometric parameters as well as photometric measurements were available for a set of 416 113 quasars. After analysing the astrometric and photometric properties of these quasars, we concentrate our study on objects characterized by significant proper motion, which contradicts the postulate that they are fixed in the celestial sphere. We derived statistical properties of the positions, parallaxes, and proper motions of the quasars cross-matched with Gaia EDR3. We carried out a specific investigation of quasars with a proper motion larger than 10 mas yr -1 , and used colour-colour diagrams in mid-infrared to discriminate these quasars from stellar contamination. We discuss, in detail, a few cases where the abnormal proper motion could be caused by misidentifications. We note that 43% of LQAC-5 quasars were not detected by Gaia EDR3, mainly because of the cut-off magnitude at G = 21. The comparison between r(G) (Gaia) and r (SDSS) shows a normal distribution. The normalized distributions of parallaxes and proper motions are identical to that of the Gaia CRF2, as well as the distribution of the G BP -G RP colour index. We have identified 937 LQAC-5 objects (0.27% of the sample) with Gaia EDR3 proper motion which is significant at the 5σ level. We have clearly shown that below z = 0.35, the integrated magnitude G(r) obtained from SDSS spectra is smaller than G (Gaia), leading to the statement that the quasars are generally resolved under this threshold, which should lead to a bad determination of proper motion. Moreover, to discriminate quasars from stellar contamination, we have plotted them in a mid-infrared colour–colour diagram. Finally, we have made a final selection of 41 objects with μ > 10 mas yr -1 , satisfying drastic constraints, which makes them potential candidates for considering their proper motion as real. In this paper we carried out a complete analysis of the quasars of the LQAC-5 which were cross-identified with Gaia EDR3 ; this serves as an alternative and complementary study with respect to Gaia CRF2, involving a different population of quasars. We selected a set of 41 quasars with a proper motion exceeding 10 mas yr -1 , which can be considered as very high for objects which are a priori fixed in the celestial sphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-D-BRD-07: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Statistical Process Control Methods to Detect Systematic Errors For Routine Electron Energy Verification

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of statistical process control methods to detect systematic errors when using a two dimensional (2D) detector array for routine electron beam energy verification. Methods: Electron beam energy constancy was measured using an aluminum wedge and a 2D diode array on four linear accelerators. Process control limits were established. Measurements were recorded in control charts and compared with both calculated process control limits and TG-142 recommended specification limits. The data was tested for normality, process capability and process acceptability. Additional measurements were recorded while systematic errors were intentionally introduced. Systematic errors included shifts in the alignment of the wedge, incorrect orientation of the wedge, and incorrect array calibration. Results: Control limits calculated for each beam were smaller than the recommended specification limits. Process capability and process acceptability ratios were greater than one in all cases. All data was normally distributed. Shifts in the alignment of the wedge were most apparent for low energies. The smallest shift (0.5 mm) was detectable using process control limits in some cases, while the largest shift (2 mm) was detectable using specification limits in only one case. The wedge orientation tested did not affect the measurements as this did not affect the thickness of aluminum over the detectors of interest. Array calibration dependence varied with energy and selected array calibration. 6 MeV was the least sensitive to array calibration selection while 16 MeV was the most sensitive. Conclusion: Statistical process control methods demonstrated that the data distribution was normally distributed, the process was capable of meeting specifications, and that the process was centered within the specification limits. Though not all systematic errors were distinguishable from random errors, process control limits increased the ability to detect systematic errors using routine measurement of electron beam energy constancy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sample Generation for Nuclear Data

This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on developing a sampling capability that can handle the challenges of generating samples from nuclear cross-section data. The covariance information between energy groups tends to be very ill-conditioned and thus poses a problem using traditional methods for generated correlated samples. This report outlines a method that addresses the sample generation from cross-section matrices. The treatment allows one to assume the cross sections are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, lognormal distribution, or truncated normal distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Notes on power of normality tests of error terms in regression models

Normality is one of the basic assumptions in applying statistical procedures. For example in linear regression most of the inferential procedures are based on the assumption of normality, i.e. the disturbance vector is assumed to be normally distributed. Failure to assess non-normality of the error terms may lead to incorrect results of usual statistical inference techniques such as t-test or F-test. Thus, error terms should be normally distributed in order to allow us to make exact inferences. As a consequence, normally distributed stochastic errors are necessary in order to make a not misleading inferences which explains a necessity and importance of robust tests of normality. Therefore, the aim of this contribution is to discuss normality testing of error terms in regression models. In this contribution, we introduce the general RT class of robust tests for normality, and present and discuss the trade-off between power and robustness of selected classical and robust normality tests of error terms in regression models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for "Quantifying the Propagation of Parametric Uncertainty on Flux Balance Analysis"

In the repository are example scripts that perform uncertainty injection and propagation to flux balance analysis with outputs for a small sample size (for demonstration purpose only). For proper analysis, user should download the scripts and run for a large sample size (e.g., 10,000 samples). If you use the scripts, please cite the following Metabolic Engineering article: “Quantifying the propagation of parametric uncertainty on flux balance analysis” (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymben.2021.10.012) There are two subdirectories: /uncFBA/uncBiom: injection of normally distributed noise to biomass precursor coeffcients and ATP maintenance (growth-associated ATP maintenance (GAM) and non-growth associated ATP maintenance (NGAM)) /uncFBA/uncRHS: departure from steady-state by adding noise drawn from normal distribution to the RHS terms of mass balance constraints

Metabolomics↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-586: Optimal Determination of Tolerance Level for Radiation Dose Delivery Verification in An in Vivo Dosimetry System

Purpose: To statistically determine the optimal tolerance level in the verification of delivery dose compared to the planned dose in an in vivo dosimetry system in radiotherapy. Methods: The LANDAUER MicroSTARii dosimetry system with screened nanoDots (optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters) was used for in vivo dose measurements. Ideally, the measured dose should match with the planned dose and falls within a normal distribution. Any deviation from the normal distribution may be redeemed as a mismatch, therefore a potential sign of the dose misadministration. Randomly mis-positioned nanoDots can yield a continuum background distribution. A percentage difference of the measured dose to its corresponding planned dose (ΔD) can be used to analyze combined data sets for different patients. A model of a Gaussian plus a flat function was used to fit the ΔD distribution. Results: Total 434 nanoDot measurements for breast cancer patients were collected across a period of three months. The fit yields a Gaussian mean of 2.9% and a standard deviation (SD) of 5.3%. The observed shift of the mean from zero is attributed to the machine output bias and calibration of the dosimetry system. A pass interval of −2SD to +2SD was applied and a mismatch background was estimated to be 4.8%. With such a tolerance level, one can expect that 99.99% of patients should pass the verification and at most 0.011% might have a potential dose misadministration that may not be detected after 3 times of repeated measurements. After implementation, a number of new start breast cancer patients were monitored and the measured pass rate is consistent with the model prediction. Conclusion: It is feasible to implement an optimal tolerance level in order to maintain a low limit of potential dose misadministration while still to keep a relatively high pass rate in radiotherapy delivery verification.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-671: Range-Modulation Effects of Carbon Ion Beams in Lung Tissue

Purpose: When particles traversing inhomogeneous materials like lung they show a characteristic range modulation which cannot be observed in homogeneous materials. It is possible to describe the range modulation by a convolution of an unperturbed Bragg-Curve and a normal distribution. The sigma of the normal distribution is a parameter for the strength of the modulation effect. A new material parameter (modulation power, P-mod) is introduced which is independent of the material thickness. It is defined as the square of sigma divided by the mean water equivalent thickness of the target (µ). Methods: The modulation power of lung tissue was determined by actual Bragg-peak measurements after traversing an ex-vivo porcine lung and by Monte-Carlo simulations with micro-CT data of human lung tissue. The determined modulation powers were used to show the effect of range modulation effects in a simplified treatment situation. A four centimeter spread-out Bragg-peak after traversing eight centimeter of lung tissue was simulated in FLUKA. The SOBP with and without consideration of range modulation effects were compared. Results: As well in the measurements as in the MC simulations range modulation effects of lung tissue were observed. The determined modulation powers showed a great range from 0.05 mm, in the micro-CT data, to 0.7 mm in the lung measurements. The SOBP comparison showed that range modulation effects Result in over- and underdosages at the distal and proximal edge of the SOBP. In the investigated case, the last 0.5 cm of the SOBP showed an underdosage of up to 50% at the distal edge, while 0.5 cm distal to the SOBP an overdosage of up to 50% was observed. Conclusion: Range modulation effects occur in inhomogeneous materials like lung. These modulation effects may Result in clinically relevant over- and underdosages but are currently not considered in commercially available treatment planning systems.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

New Fitting Formula for Cosmic Nonlinear Density Distribution

We have measured the probability distribution function (PDF) of a cosmic matter density field from a suite of N-body simulations. We propose the generalized normal distribution of version 2 (N{sub v2}) as an alternative fitting formula to the well-known log-normal distribution. We find that N{sub v2} provides a significantly better fit than that of the log-normal distribution for all smoothing radii (2, 5, 10, 25 [Mpc h {sup −1}]) that we studied. The improvement is substantial in the underdense regions. The development of non-Gaussianities in the cosmic matter density field is captured by continuous evolution of the skewness and shift parameters of the N{sub v2} distribution. We present the redshift evolution of these parameters for aforementioned smoothing radii and various background cosmology models. All the PDFs measured from large and high-resolution N-body simulations that we use in this study can be obtained from the web site https://astro.kias.re.kr/jhshin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Energetics and Birth Rates of Supernova Remnants in the Large Magellanic Cloud

Published X-ray emission properties for a sample of 50 supernova remnants (SNRs) in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) are used as input for SNR evolution modeling calculations. The forward shock emission is modeled to obtain the initial explosion energy, age, and circumstellar medium density for each SNR in the sample. The resulting age distribution yields a SNR birthrate of 1/(500 yr) for the LMC. The explosion energy distribution is well fit by a log-normal distribution, with a most-probable explosion energy of 0.5×10{sup 51} erg, with a 1σ dispersion by a factor of 3 in energy. The circumstellar medium density distribution is broader than the explosion energy distribution, with a most-probable density of ∼0.1 cm{sup −3}. The shape of the density distribution can be fit with a log-normal distribution, with incompleteness at high density caused by the shorter evolution times of SNRs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Distribution Development for STORM Ingestion Input Parameters

The Sandia-developed Transport of Radioactive Materials (STORM) code suite is used as part of the Radioisotope Power System Launch Safety (RPSLS) program to perform statistical modeling of the consequences due to release of radioactive material given a launch accident. As part of this modeling, STORM samples input parameters from probability distributions with some parameters treated as constants. This report described the work done to convert four of these constant inputs (Consumption Rate, Average Crop Yield, Cropland to Landuse Database Ratio, and Crop Uptake Factor) to sampled values. Consumption rate changed from a constant value of 557.68 kg / yr to a normal distribution with a mean of 102.96 kg / yr and a standard deviation of 2.65 kg / yr. Meanwhile, Average Crop Yield changed from a constant value of 3.783 kg edible / m 2 to a normal distribution with a mean of 3.23 kg edible / m 2 and a standard deviation of 0.442 kg edible / m 2 . The Cropland to Landuse Database ratio changed from a constant value of 0.0996 (9.96%) to a normal distribution with a mean value of 0.0312 (3.12%) and a standard deviation of 0.00292 (0.29%). Finally the crop uptake factor changed from a constant value of 6.37e -4 (Bq crop /kg)/(Bq soil /kg) to a lognormal distribution with a geometric mean value of 3.38e -4 (Bq crop /kg)/(Bq soil /kg) and a standard deviation value of 3.33 (Bq crop /kg)/(Bq soil /kg)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Biases in Sample Preparation Techniques for Coupled Scanning Electron Microscopy and MAMA PuO 2 Morphological Analysis

In this project, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) sampling method used during the statistical design study (SDS) was investigated to determine if any sampling biases were present in the analyzed data. Using standard particle size distribution powders from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1984 standard reference material) with the origin wet dispersion method, it was determined that a bias to smaller particles was present. This was supported by theoretical calculations using Stokes’ law to determine the settling rate of spherical particles of roughly the same size and mass as those found in the SDS. Based on the theoretical calculations, it was determined that the settling rate for each of the 76 powder sets in the SDS could be unique based on specific particle shape and mass distributions, making a universal correction factor/formula not applicable. Therefore, priority shifted to developing an improved wet dispersion method that significantly reduced the particle settling rate for all particle size and shapes. This was achieved by replacing the original solvent (isopropyl alcohol) with a heavy liquid (lithium heteropolytungstates), which dramatically slowed the settling rate and allowed for the capture of a suitable homogeneous aliquot. SEM imaging and Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution (MAMA) software analysis were conducted on the NIST standard, and the SEM/MAMA data were compared to data captured by a dynamic image analysis particle size analyzer. The resulting data confirmed that the new wet dispersion method does indeed deliver an improved representative aliquot to the SEM stub. For instance, in the NIST certificate, the average particle size is ~17.1 µm ± 2.2 µm with a normal distribution. The initial wet dispersion method resulted in a drastically reduced average particle size of 6.1 µm in addition to a non-representative heavy bi-modal distribution whereas the improved LST wet dispersion method resulting in an average particle size that was much closer to the NIST certificate (12.7 µm) with a similar normal distribution. Although the improved method was still short of the NIST certificate average, atomic force microscopy analysis determined that the resulting ~20-25% reduction in size was due to particles sinking into the carbon sticky tape used for SEM imaging. It is believed that that this bias can be calibrated in a much more predicable manner than the original settling rate bias. In addition, the matching normal distribution curves between the NIST certificate and the heavy liquid method indicate a much-improved representative aliquot has been sampled and imaged. A surrogate CeO 2 powder was used to reflect PuO 2 more accurately and to aid in implementing radiological controls and shielding. The resulting data sets from the SEM/MAMA method and the particle size analyzer give almost identical average particle sizes and particle distribution statistics. Future work will re-analyze several select runs from the SDS to determine if morphological signatures can be found with the improved sampling method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗