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At least 19 records

Identifying Nuclear Cost Targets for Competitive Maritime Decarbonization

The shipping industry contributes to a substantial quantity of global carbon emissions. Reaching a “Net-Zero World” will ultimately require complete decarbonization of the existing fleet. Nuclear energy may provide a viable solution toward this end goal. To better understand the economic dynamics of relying on nuclear energy to power maritime fleets, cost targets were identified in this study. Two use cases were considered: (1) nuclear energy is used to generate synthetic fuel (termed synfuel) to power maritime propulsion, and (2) nuclear reactors for vessel propulsion. The study found that in both cases realistic cost targets for nuclear reactor costs could be reached. However, option 2 was deemed to be much more competitive overall but with higher technical risks.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY

Low Cost Nuclear Thermal Rocket Cermet Fuel Element Environment Testing

Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse and relatively high thrust to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames.1,2 Conventional storable propellants produce average specific impulse. Nuclear thermal rockets capable of producing high specific impulse are proposed. Nuclear thermal rockets employ heat produced by fission reaction to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen, which is then forced through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000 K), and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high-temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements are limited.3 The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements that employ high-melting-point metals, ceramics, or a combination (cermet) as a structural matrix into which the nuclear fuel is distributed. The purpose of the testing is to obtain data to assess the properties of the non-nuclear support materials, as-fabricated, and determine their ability to survive and maintain thermal performance in a prototypical NTR reactor environment of exposure to hydrogen at very high temperatures. The fission process of the planned fissile material and the resulting heating performance is well known and does not therefore require that active fissile material be integrated in this testing. A small-scale test bed designed to heat fuel element samples via non-contact radio frequency heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without employing fissile material. This paper details the test bed design and results of testing conducted to date.

Bradley, D. E.

Low Cost Nuclear Thermal Rocket Cermet Fuel Element Environment Testing

Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse (Isp) and relatively high thrust in order to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames. Conventional, storable propellants produce average Isp. Nuclear thermal rockets (NTR) capable of high Isp thrust have been proposed. NTR employs heat produced by fission reaction to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen which is then forced through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000K) and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements is limited. The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements which employ high-melting-point metals, ceramics or a combination (cermet) as a structural matrix into which the nuclear fuel is distributed. It is not necessary to include fissile material in test samples intended to explore high temperature hydrogen exposure of the structural support matrices. A small-scale test bed designed to heat fuel element samples via non-contact RF heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without employing fissile material. This paper details the test bed design and results of testing conducted to date.

Bradley, David E.

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Technology-Neutral, Accident Containment-Based Path to Reduce Nuclear Power Costs

Cost remains a substantial impediment to nuclear power plant (NPP) deployment. The origin of the multifold cost difference between NPPs and other industrial facilities is in their unique potential for societally disruptive accidents. Consequently, one means to substantially reduce NPP costs would be to provide a transparent means of demonstrating that a plant’s potential for land-contamination accidents is so remote to amount to a practical certainty that no significant quantity of radionuclides would ever reach the public. The necessary confidence can be developed through employing a containment capable of withstanding both a complete internal energy release accident along with credible external events with ample margin. This paper provides an overview of a path forward to develop a technology-neutral, containment-based safety-adequacy demonstration method.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative – 2024 Update

This report provides recommended parameters for incorporating nuclear energy systems into decarbonization modeling scenarios. The values are primarily intended for the Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative but are expected to prove useful to other related efforts. Both costs and operational metrics are provided in the study for large reactors and small modular reactors (SMR).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Introductory Review of the Maritime Nuclear Regulatory Landscape

The successful deployment of nuclear technology for maritime applications, including the ability to provide energy to land-based projects at ports, has the potential to assist the International Maritime Organization’s pursuit of 2050 targets while simultaneously bringing low-cost nuclear power closer to where it is needed. The benefits of low-cost nuclear power include, but are not limited to, effective resource extraction and processing, more efficient and productive industrial applications through electrification, and increased energy abundance. In addition, the maritime sector presents unique opportunities for nuclear. For example, by leveraging the maritime sector’s experience with modular shipyard manufacturing, the nuclear industry can achieve significant cost and schedule reductions, increased productivity, and improved quality control.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Development costs for a nuclear electric propulsion stage.

Development costs are presented for an unmanned nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) stage based upon a liquid metal cooled, in-core thermionic reactor. A total of 120 kWe are delivered to the thrust subsystem which employs mercury ion engines for electric propulsion. This study represents the most recent cost evaluation of the development of a reactor power system for a wide range of nuclear space power applications. These include geocentric, and outer planet and other deep space missions. The development program is described for the total NEP stage, based upon specific development programs for key NEP stage components and subsystems.

Mondt, J. F.

Parametric and Nonparametric Models of U.S. Cost Overruns for Nuclear Power Plants

This study presents new data-driven models to estimate the effect of capacity on the percentage of cost overruns in the United States for nuclear power plant construction projects before and after the Three Mile Island accident. Parametric and nonparametric models have been developed that describe the significant shifts in nuclear energy costs during the dynamic environment. Employing a contemporary descriptive methodology and a quantitative analysis, we furnish a comprehensive overview of the alterations in cost overrun distribution and show the changes observed in other pivotal metrics alongside cost overruns. Our emphasis lies in documenting the fluctuations in cost overruns alongside nuclear reactor capacity levels and the increase of the overnight capital costs to build nuclear reactors. Our results show that increasing the size of nuclear reactors is not a factor statistically significant to decrease the percentage of cost overruns, and the probit model results provide evidence that an increase in size increases the probability of having cost overruns larger than 100% (double the estimated cost). We also compare our findings to two other regions: Asia and Europe.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Extraction of Oxygen from the Martian Atmosphere

A mechanical process was designed for direct extraction of molecular oxygen from the martian atmosphere based on liquefaction of the majority component, CO2, followed by separation of the lower-boiling components. The atmospheric gases are compressed from about 0.007 bar to 13 bar and then cooled to liquefy most of the CO2. The uncondensed gases are further compressed to 30 bar or more, and then cooled again to recover water as ice and to remove much of the remaining CO2. The final gaseous products consisting mostly of nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon monoxide are liquefied and purified by cryogenic distillation. The liquefied CO2 is expanded back to the low-pressure atmosphere with the addition of heat to recover a majority of the compression energy and to produce the needed mechanical work. Energy for the process is needed primarily as heat to drive the CO2-based expansion power system. When properly configured, the extraction process can be a net producer of electricity. The conceptual design, termed 'MARRS' for Mars Atmosphere Resource Recovery System, was based on the NASA/JSC Mars Reference Mission (MRM) requirement for oxygen. This mission requires both liquid oxygen for propellant, and gaseous oxygen as a component of air for the mission crew. With single redundancy both for propellant and crew air, the oxygen requirement for the MRM is estimated at 5.8 kg/hr. The process thermal power needed is about 120 kW, which can be provided at 300-500 C. A lower-cost nuclear reactor made largely of stainless steel could serve as the heat source. The chief development needed for MARRS is an efficient atmospheric compression technology, all other steps being derived from conventional chemical engineering separations. The conceptual design describes an exceptionally low-mass compression system that can be made from ultra-lightweight and deployable structures. This system adapts to the rapidly changing martian environment to supply the atmospheric resource to MARRS at constant conditions.

England, C.

Open Architecture for Cost Savings in Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Recently, nuclear power plant build projects in the West have run over budget due to high capital costs and schedule overruns. Compared to other sources of energy, nuclear power plants have higher capital costs. Reactors are often different at every site, resulting in a lack of standardization. Nuclear is expected to compete with other low carbon sources of energy which have lower capital costs making it essential for nuclear to develop ways of reducing costs. Strategies such as standardization, learning rates, modularization, and schedule reduction in advanced reactors can reduce nuclear costs by about 40%. Standardization as a way of cutting capital costs has been explored even in large nuclear power plants. Standardization of certain plant components can result in lower component and installation costs and higher learning from experience. Standardization can be achieved by adopting a criterion of key performance indicators and general design principles for a specific system or component such as the balance of plant. Modularization allows the construction of certain components of SMRs in a factory, which saves time, increases productivity, and encourages higher learning rates. Production learning decreases the time and the cost related to an activity. The potential for modularized components of advanced reactors to be manufactured in factories makes it conducive to achieving higher learning rates. Developing large-capacity nuclear programs through sequential builds cultivates a higher learning rate, which in effect may reduce schedule overruns. Open architecture has been identified as a way to drive standardization among advanced reactor designs and result in cost savings. Open architecture (OA) is defined as a design enabling a diverse supply chain by defining and publishing requirements of systems or equipment in functional and/or interface terms, utilizing technical standards in widespread use. Currently, the nuclear industry’s approach is to use closed architecture, making most designs proprietary. However, collaboration between various advanced reactor vendors and suppliers utilizing the concept of open architecture can result in modular and standardized architecture of subsystems or subcomponents of a nuclear power plant. Completely standardizing nuclear power plants may be impossible, however, certain common subsystems amongst the various reactor designs could be standardized and/or access a wider supply chain and leverage existing learning from other sectors. Open architecture will save time and allocate resources to the parts of the plants that have the most unique features. A key advantage of open architecture is its ability to improve production learning across advanced reactors (AR) types in the industry, by providing and utilizing the same kind of component. Sodium fast reactor (SFR), High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) and Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) are the advanced reactors considered for this project. This paper aims to determine the cost savings in advanced reactor programs due to open architecture learning rate. This work is an extension of work done on light water reactor small modular reactors; the cost methodology was utilized to investigate the impact of open architecture on advanced reactors with a particular focus on sodium fast reactors. The cost data on sodium fast reactors used in the model presented the most adequate information required for the analysis.

Advanced Nuclear Reactors

A comparison of nuclear thermal rocket development cost and schedule for piloted missions to Mars

In Fiscal Year 1992, NASA led a team, including DOE, universities, and industry, that evaluated various schedule and cost scenarios for development of nuclear thermal rocket propulsion systems for piloted Mars exploration. This paper summarizes the results of two of these studies: (1) a so-called 'Fast Track' approach, that would result in technology readiness level 6 (TRL-6-system ground testing complete) by the year 2000, and (2) a slower program that results in TRL-6 by 2006. Both scenarios included a concurrent engineering approach. Costs and schedules for the two scenarios are compared. In addition to the six-year schedule delay, the TRL-6 in 2006 scenario is estimated to increase the cost of the program from $4.7 billion to $5.8 billion (in real-year dollars). On the positive side, the technical program should be better, since nuclear testing of fuel elements may be possible prior to concept down-select, resulting in a more informed decision.

Clark, John S.

Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 Experience

The completion of Vogtle Units 3 and 4, despite significant cost and schedule overruns, a major bankruptcy, and a pandemic, demonstrates that the U.S. nuclear industry can still develop new supply chains, train a highly skilled workforce, and build large nuclear power plants. Vogtle, being a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant, faced overruns, but FOAK overruns can decrease with more deployments through a combination of design standardization and modularization, transferring and implementing lessons learned between consecutive projects, and innovation. This report quantifies the potential cost and schedule reductions in future AP1000 plants in the US and identifies the barriers in achieving those reductions. It starts with a summary and analysis of the cost and construction timeline data for AP1000 plants that started construction in the United States (Vogtle) and China. Motivated by the steep schedule reductions from the first to second series of AP1000 plants in China, a cost reduction model was developed to quantify potential reductions for future AP1000 builds in the US. Results show that within about 3 more builds, AP1000s can become economically attractive in large markets in the U.S., without leveraging the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC), and much sooner if these tax credits are available. Importantly the financial risks for future AP1000 builds in the US might be much smaller than observed in the FOAK plants. The study also identifies various barriers for future builds including the availability of a supply chain and a skilled workforce, and emphasizes the importance of making investments to gather and implement lessons learned between consecutive projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

A Bottom-Up Cost Estimation Tool for Nuclear Microreactors

The rising interest in nuclear microreactors has highlighted the need for comprehensive technoeconomic assessments. However, the scarcity of publicly available designs and cost data has posed significant challenges. To address this issue, the Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation and Economics (MOUSE) tool is developed. MOUSE is a tool that integrates nuclear microreactor design with reactor economics. The design calculations encompass core simulations using the OpenMC Monte Carlo Particle Transport Code [romano2015], along with simplified balance of plant calculations. On the economic side, MOUSE provides detailed bottom-up cost estimates, calculating both the total capital cost and the levelized cost of energy for first-of-a-kind and nth-of-a-kind microreactors. The cost estimation correlations are developed using data from the MARVEL project and additional literature sources. MOUSE has released as an open-source tool on GitHub (MOUSE Tool). By combining design calculations with cost equations, MOUSE enables users to evaluate the impact of various technological consideration, advanced moderators, design changes, material/fuel changes, and geometry modifications—as well as economic parameters like interest rates and construction duration. This comprehensive framework can guide stakeholders towards technological solutions that enhance microreactor competitiveness. Additionally, powered by the WATTS toolkit [romano2022], MOUSE supports optimization studies, parametric analyses, and uncertainty calculations/propagation. Currently, preconceptual designs of three microreactor types are included in MOUSE: a liquid metal thermal microreactor (LTMR), gas cooled TRISO-fueled microreactor (GCMR) and heat-pipe TRISO fueled microreactor (HPMR). To showcase its ability, MOUSE was used to conduct detailed bottom-up cost estimates for the first of a kind (FOAK) and Nth of a kind (NOAK) of the following microreactors • A 20MWt LTMR that is built on the ongoing MARVEL demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) • A 15 MWt GCMR that was designed to be more representative of the typical commercial microreactor • A 7 MWt HPMR that was built on previous work (Choi 2024) The The reader should note that these three designs and corresponding cost estimates are examples to demonstrate the MOUSE capability. The designs are pre-conceptual, the reactor designs were not optimized, and the cost estimates were developed with incomplete information. Additionally, stakeholders might be interested in a variety of designs that may differ from the examples provided in this report. The MOUSE tool can also be used to study how design choices affect economics. To demonstrate its capability, MOUSE was used conduct parametric studies such as examining the economic impact of the reflector's material and thickness, the moderator's booster material and dimensions, fuel composition and enrichment, core size, and power level. Several insights were gained from these parametric studies.

Hanna, Botros

Power Management for Space Advanced Life Support

Space power systems include the power source, storage, and management subsystems. In current crewed spacecraft, solar cells are the power source, batteries provide storage, and the crew performs any required load scheduling. For future crewed planetary surface systems using Advanced Life Support, we assume that plants will be grown to produce much of the crew's food and that nuclear power will be employed. Battery storage is much more costly than nuclear power capacity and so is not likely to be used. We investigate the scheduling of power demands by the crew or automatic control, to reduce the peak power load and the required generating capacity. The peak to average power ratio is a good measure of power use efficiency. We can easily schedule power demands to reduce the peak power from its maximum, but simple scheduling approaches may not find the lowest possible peak to average power ratio. An initial power scheduling example was simple enough for a human to solve, but a more complex example with many intermittent load demands required automatic scheduling. Excess power is a free resource and can be used even for minor benefits.

Jones, Harry