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Emerging Threats and Technology Investigation: Industrial Internet of Things - Risk and Mitigation for Nuclear Infrastructure

Industries supporting the global nuclear infrastructure striving for cost savings, expansions in efficiency, and convenience are likely to adopt components (e.g., hardware, software) that comprise the Internet of Things (IoT) and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). These devices offer potential improvements along with security challenges. Modern conveniences achieved through application of technology have propagated through society in the form of interconnected devices, from doorbells to microwave ovens, commonly referred to as IoT. IoT devices are often Internet-connected devices that are designed to send data back to a cloud-based server, where a smart phone application then presents device status and control options. Home-based IoT applications carry a different set of risks when compared to a business or security environment, where there is also a history of convenience and interconnection. Industrial settings have long relied on specifically designed Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems for process control where IIoT devices are intended to inform business decisions and augment traditional processes. A recent National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) report provides a distinction between process control and IIoT in that traditional process control is not replaced by IIoT, but rather IIoT devices are intended to enhance industrial processes through additional monitoring of various sensors and application of data analytics models using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) (Fagan, Marron, et al. 2021) (Ross, et al. 2021).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Experiences of Member States in Building a Nuclear Security Infrastructure for New Nuclear Power Programmes

A nuclear power programme has many benefits, but it is a major undertaking that requires careful planning and preparation as well as a substantial investment in time. It also necessitates the establishment of a sustainable national infrastructure with committed and sustained financial and human resources. While nuclear power is not unique in this respect, it is different from other sources of energy because of the risks associated with the use of nuclear material, as well as the need for compliance with international legal instruments, internationally accepted nuclear safety standards, nuclear security guidance, and safeguards requirements. The IAEA’s Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.1 (Rev. 1), defines a phased approach that identifies 19 infrastructure issues that should be addressed in each of the three phases of the development of a nuclear infrastructure for a nuclear power programme. The publication Evaluation of the Status of National Nuclear Infrastructure Development IAEA Nuclear Energy Series NG-T-3.2 (Rev. 2) provides a methodology to determine the status of the infrastructure conditions covering all 19 issues identified in the Milestones Approach. A companion IAEA Implementing Guide, Establishing the Nuclear Security Infrastructure for a Nuclear Power Programme, IAEA Nuclear Security Series No. 19, provides guidance on the recommended actions to be taken by a State to establish an effective national nuclear security infrastructure for a nuclear power programme using the Milestones Approach. This publication is intended to provide guidance based on the experiences and good practices of Member States with embarking nuclear power programmes as well as Member States that are expanding their nuclear power programmes. The guidance is in the form of case studies, which highlight challenges, issues, and solutions identified by Member States as lessons learned for new nuclear power programmes. This TECDOC is designed to present the experiences of Member States to assist other Member States in developing a nuclear security programme. It addresses the key actions necessary to establish an effective national nuclear security infrastructure for a nuclear power programme consistent with the three phases of the IAEA Milestones Approach. The Member States that provided case studies in this document are at different stages in the development of a nuclear power programme.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The LLNL nuclear data infrastructure for the GNDS data format

The next generation of nuclear data infrastructure tools at the Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) consists of pipeline of codes that read and process nuclear data from evaluated files saved in the new GNDS (Generalised Nuclear Data Structure) nuclear data format. The processing code FUDGE (For Updating Data and Generating Evaluations) is at the front-end of this pipeline as it reads and process the evaluated data for use in downstream transport codes. FUDGE is Python based with C and C++ extensions for computationally intensive tasks. As is the case for the evaluated data, the processed output is also saved in the GNDS format and the GIDI+ API is provided as the interface between the processed data and the transport codes. GIDI+ is a C++ based suite of codes and it includes GIDI (General Interaction Data Interface), a library for reading and writing GNDS data, and MCGIDI which is the cross section lookup, and reaction and product distribution sampling interface between Monte Carlo transport codes and the GNDS data. GIDI provides methods for easy access to the multi-group processed GNDS data and this is demonstrated through its implementation in ARDRA, the LLNL deterministic transport code. The evaluation and sampling methods in MCGIDI are available as both CPU and GPU methods which facilitates the use of MCGIDI in both traditional CPU-based as well as the next generation mixed model computational architectures. This is demonstrated through the GIDI+ implementation in MERCURY, the LLNL Monte Carlo transport code. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Power Plant Infrastructure Evaluations for Removal of Spent Nuclear Fuel

This report provides evaluations of the NPP site infrastructure and near-site transportation infrastructure for removing SNF from 19 NPP sites and the Morris Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). The material to be removed from the NPP sites includes both the SNF and the greater-than-Class C low-level radioactive waste (GTCC waste)3 that is stored, or will be stored, at the sites. This report is an update of the report Nuclear Power Plant Infrastructure Evaluations for Removal of Spent Nuclear Fuel (Maheras et al. 2021) and includes expansion of the site evaluations to include operating nuclear power plant (NPP) sites and to incorporate updated site inventory data. Figures that include the number of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies and metric tons heavy metal (MTHM) in a single figure have also been added to the report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Materials and Fuels Complex FY-24 -- FY-28 Five-Year Investment Strategy

MFC supports current RD&D missions while enabling new projects and missions working with DOE-NE sponsors, other federal agencies, private industry, and academia. The investment strategy described in this document guides the efforts to build, expand, and sustain DOE-NE research capabilities at MFC, increase access to MFC capabilities by industry and the nuclear RD&D community, and revitalize existing MFC nuclear infrastructure. The strategy also anticipates and guides the preparations necessary for demonstration of advanced nuclear energy technologies in support of NRIC, the DOE Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) initiative, and nuclear energy and other related critical outcomes identified in the INL Laboratory Plan. The investment strategy for MFC addresses building and improving on these core competencies, introducing new and revitalized RD&D capabilities, and maturing the NRIC test bed. MFC is also implementing new business and operations models to help transform MFC into a complex that supports an advanced nuclear technology development test bed. The strategy for MFC is presented in several parts, each focusing on an element needed for success.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Development of New Reactor Core Configuration for Power Uprate - Fuel Reload & Heat Processing Analyses, Core Design, System Safety Assessments, and Fuel Performance Analyses

With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the United States stands at a critical juncture for the future of nuclear power. These landmark policies provide significant support for clean energy initiatives, positioning nuclear power as a key component of the nation’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and achieve energy security. This growing emphasis on nuclear energy is driven by the need for reliable, low-carbon power sources as the country transitions away from fossil fuels. Federal policy, along with increasing state-level support, is encouraging investment in nuclear technology advancements to meet these demands. Building new nuclear power plants (NPPs), however, presents significant challenges due to high costs and long construction timelines. As a result, increasing the power output of existing NPPs through power uprates has emerged as a more feasible and cost-effective strategy. One key area of advancement is the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), such as chromium-coated zirconium alloy cladding, which offers enhanced material performance, enabling power uprates in light water reactors (LWRs). Given the growing demand for nuclear energy fueled by federal policies and state initiatives, it is essential to evaluate the feasibility and benefits of significant power uprates in existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) using advanced fuel technologies. The introduction of ATF concepts opens new opportunities for safely and economically achieving these power increases. Assessing whether these innovations can support substantial power uprates while maintaining operational safety is crucial to maximizing the potential of the nation’s existing nuclear infrastructure. This project aims to explore how power uprates can be achieved by boosting reactor thermal power output and optimizing reactor core design, while ensuring the safety and economic viability of NPPs. Specifically, it will focus on demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of power uprates in a PWR using low 5-10% enrichment uranium (LEU+) high burnup (HBU) fuel combined with ATF concepts. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), the research and development focus on building foundational models and conducting multi-physics performance and safety analyses to support the power uprate. The findings of the study would be shared through LWRS Seasonal Meetings, conferences and workshops with utility companies and researchers. These also serve as a basis for further study of fuel reloading optimization with ATF claddings.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The evolution of the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory in nuclear power research

The events at Three Mile Island in the United States brought about fundamental changes in the ways that simulation would be used in nuclear operations. The need for research simulators was identified to scientifically study human-centered risk and make recommendations for process control system designs. This paper documents the human factors research conducted at the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) since its inception in 2010 at Idaho National Laboratory. The facility’s primary purposes are to provide support to utilities for system upgrades and to validate modernized control room concepts. In the last decade, however, as nuclear industry needs have evolved, so too have the purposes of the HSSL. Thus, beyond control room modernization, human factors researchers have evaluated the security of nuclear infrastructure from cyber adversaries and evaluated human-in-the-loop simulations for joint operations with an integrated hydrogen generation plant. Lastly, our review presents research using human reliability analysis techniques with data collected from HSSL-based studies and concludes with potential future directions for the HSSL, including severe accident management and advanced control room technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Neutronic Safety Analysis of Pu-238 Production at Idaho National Laboratory

This analysis was completed to support the irradiation of plutonium fuel services (PFS) targets in the NEFT in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as a part of the campaign to restart domestic production of plutonium-238 used in radioisotope power systems (RPS) by the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Nuclear Infrastructure Program (NE-3). Referred to as the PFS-ATR-GEN1-NEFT experiment, the assembly was designed to hold 46 PFS targets in the NEFT. The scope of this paper is to outline the MOPY method used to calculate the heat generation rates (HGRs), flux, fission density, and quantify the viability of the target design for Pu-238 production in ATR.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Licensing, Regulations and Developing Guidance for Nuclear Technology Deployment for Embarking countries in Africa

The African region is witnessing an increased number of countries at different stages of implementing or considering the introduction of peaceful nuclear power programs to meet the demand of their rapidly growing economies as well as clean energy needs. Grid size, cost, licensing, and regulations will be some of the challenges to deploying larger power reactors. A key element of the regulatory framework will be the inclusion of nuclear security information and assurance that security is integrated into the license review process.As each country continue to implement and consider different reactor designs from several vendors, the significance of customer knowledge of licensing, Regulations, and guidance document to facilitate the deployment and operational needs for nuclear technology cannot be over-emphasized. This special session will bring together a selected panel of key stakeholders and policymakers from embarking countries in Africa to participate in a panel discussion to share their experience in the licensing, regulations, and development of guidance for power plant deployment. The session will also consider and identify potential gaps that may affect the licensing and regulatory applications for the future nuclear infrastructure. As well, the panel will promote regional networking and communication to increase capacities in readiness for the potential deployment of additional technology, such as Small Modular Reactors.

Dahunsi, Stephen↗

Synergies Between Nuclear Security and Critical Infrastructure: National Legal and Regulatory Frameworks

Nuclear reactors and other nuclear facilities are part of a nation's critical infrastructure assets. Key cross-sector interdependencies, in relation to energy, transportation systems, communications, emergency services, water, information technologies and others, result in inevitable synergies between legal frameworks for the security of nuclear facilities and legal frameworks for the protection of critical infrastructure. The protection of nuclear facilities against sabotage and other malicious acts is paramount in ensuring energy security and thus ensuring uninterrupted energy supply. The protection of other sectors, such as uninterrupted communications, secure water supply, and others, supports a safe and secure operation of nuclear facilities. Some countries rely on broader critical infrastructure frameworks to impose security requirements on nuclear facilities, or to achieve robust cybersecurity systems. This paper will analyze the interdependencies and synergies between the legal and regulatory frameworks for critical infrastructure protection and nuclear facilities' security by comparing various national frameworks. The paper will also propose modalities to leverage the best practices and requirements from each framework towards energy security goals and stronger national nuclear security regimes.

Man, Madalina-Anca↗

Gender Mainstreaming in Nuclear Security: Strategies for Incorporating Gender Equality by Design in the IAEA Milestones Approach

Gender mainstreaming has emerged as a critical mechanism towards achieving gender equality in the development and implementation of laws, policies, and programs, including those related to national security. Gender mainstreaming is generally defined as the process of assessing the implications for women and men of any planned action, including legislation, policies, and programs, in all areas and at all levels, with the ultimate goal to achieve gender equality. Gender mainstreaming, which in essence can be thought of as “gender equality by design,” is an important element for building a robust nuclear security infrastructure. To date, however, gender mainstreaming has not been fully operationalized in the nuclear sector. For instance, the IAEA Milestones Approach, which provides important guidance to states seeking to develop nuclear power programs, has not yet incorporated or addressed gender considerations in its various phases or nuclear infrastructure issues, including those related to nuclear security. Therefore, this paper will argue that specifically for nuclear newcomer states, gender mainstreaming could serve as a powerful tool to integrate gender considerations into the design of laws, policies, programs, and entities necessary to successfully implement a nuclear power program. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to explore the concept of gender mainstreaming and its relevance to nuclear security, and second, to identify how gender can be incorporated into the IAEA Milestones Approach. The paper will emphasize the importance of developing guidance for the IAEA and nuclear newcomer states on how gender considerations could be incorporated throughout the development of a nuclear security program.

Siserman-Gray, Ioana-Cristina↗

Women in Nuclear Power Programs: Case Studies from Africa

This paper first analyzes existing international, regional, and national efforts on gender equality in nuclear security and illustrates how these efforts can be integrated into a country’s preparations for a nuclear power program. The paper will hone into case studies from Eastern Africa, analyzing current programs and plans in two nuclear newcomer countries in the region: Kenya and Uganda. Finally, the ultimate purpose of the paper will be to present recommendations, suggestions, and potential solutions to address gender equality in nuclear security throughout the three milestones and to build equality in human resource development to achieve a robust nuclear security infrastructure for a nuclear power program.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗