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At least 19 records

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyber-Physical System: Design for Sustainability and Resilience

When considering the design tools needed in the transition from numeric models to pilot plant, cyber-physical systems (CPS) come to the forefront as a method to model complex integrated energy systems. CPS approach has proven to be valuable to identify opportunities for economically viable early adoption of integrated energy technologies. This tutorial will introduce the concepts and the roles of CPS in co-design to minimize risks for pilot plant and technology deployment. This tutorial will also layout basic requirements for the CPS development, which requires a highly interdisciplinary effort with expertise in sensors, hardware testing, real-time modeling, controls, and system integration.

Harun, Nor Farida↗

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computer simulations of space-borne meteorological systems on the CYBER 205

Because of the extreme expense involved in developing and flight testing meteorological instruments, an extensive series of numerical modeling experiments to simulate the performance of meteorological observing systems were performed on CYBER 205. The studies compare the relative importance of different global measurements of individual and composite systems of the meteorological variables needed to determine the state of the atmosphere. The assessments are made in terms of the systems ability to improve 12 hour global forecasts. Each experiment involves the daily assimilation of simulated data that is obtained from a data set called nature. This data is obtained from two sources: first, a long two-month general circulation integration with the GLAS 4th Order Forecast Model and second, global analysis prepared by the National Meteorological Center, NOAA, from the current observing systems twice daily.

Halem, M.↗

Cyber-Physical Reformer Development at NETL

Integrated energy systems are considered one of promising technologies to provide efficient, reliable and resilient power generation. The U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory is building an automated reformer-solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine integrated energy system using a cyber-physical systems (CPS) approach, which exploits the advantage of both numerical model and physical system, as well as gapping the inaccessible technologies. Both the fuel reformer and the fuel cell stack are designed to be CPS components, of which the hardware representations are physically integrated with the gas turbine. A compact design is used with the consideration of future commercialization by placing all components inside of a pressure chamber, which is pressurized by the compressor discharge. (Presented virtually at the MILLENNIUM CLEAN and SUSTAINABLE POWER Workshop 2025)

cyber-physical↗

Numerical simulation and comparison of symmetrical/supercritical airfoils for the near tip region of a helicopter in forward flight

Aerodynamic loads on a multi-bladed helicopter rotor in forward flight at transonic tip conditions are calculated. The unsteady, three-dimensional, time-accurate compressible Reynolds-averaged thin layer Navier-Stokes equations are solved in a rotating coordinate system on a body-conformed, curvilinear grid of C-H topology. Detailed boundary layer and global numerical comparisons of NACA-0012 symmetrical and CAST7-158 supercritical airfoils are made under identical forward flight conditions. The rotor wake effects are modeled by applying a correction to the geometric angle of attack of the blade. This correction is obtained by computing the local induced downwash velocity with a free wake analysis program. The calculations are performed on the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation Cray 2 and the VPS32 (a derivative of a Cyber 205 at the Langley Research Center) for a model helicopter rotor in forward flight.

Badavi, F. F.↗

Thermal Actuator Identification and Control for Thermomechanical Real-Time Cyber–Physical Testing

Thermomechanical cyber–physical testing enables two-way thermal coupling between a numerical and an experimental subsystem. The interactions between the numerical model and the physical specimen occur through transfer systems, which enforce interface conditions. Thus, efficient control methodologies are necessary to achieve the desired interface interaction through thermal actuators with minimal error. This study introduces a novel thermal transfer system that imposes distributed cooling (or heating) thermal loads on a physical subsystem. First, the thermal actuator is identified considering switching-mode continuous dynamics for heating and cooling conditions. A switching-mode estimation algorithm is adopted to estimate the operating thermal cycle of the actuator in real-time. A control system is developed to experimentally impose the desired temperature and reduce tracking error (i.e., the error between the desired and actual temperature) under different thermal cycles. The identification and control of the thermal transfer system are then validated through a set of experiments considering different temperature rates of change. The developed control system is found to effectively minimize tracking errors in real-time cyber–physical experiments.

Herta Montoya↗

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using PCDS to study the influence of UV flux variation on the middle atmosphere

The value of the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) in examining the influences of short-period solar flux variations on the middle atmosphere was demonstrated. Several Nimbus satellite data sets proposed for the study exist in the PCDS. Planned for retrieval through the PCDS are ozone mixing ratios and cumulative ozone profiles available from the Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer on Nimbus-4. Also to be accessed are Nimbus-7 data sets that will provide ozone and nitrogen dioxide mixing ratios, temperature profiles from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere, and ozone mixing ratio profiles from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer. Bypassing the time-consuming process of reading raw data tapes, the researchers plan to transfer the PCDS processed data to an IBM PC at Iowa State University. The IBM PC will serve as an intermediate vehicle for transferring the data to the NOAA CYBER 840 at Boulder, Colorado, where research will continue on both an eight-layer radiative-photochemical numerical model and on a nonlinear dynamical model. in this research are the FGGE and ERB data sets. These relevant data sets also reside in the PCDS. Problems associated with remote access to the PCDS were discussed in regard to all the PCDS data sets.

Heilman, W.↗

Bracknell Meteorological Office

The Bracknell (U.K.) Meteorological Office runs a global weather model twice a day, providing the following data: surface and radiosonde; aircraft reports; and satellite soundings and wind. A human forecast is made every six hours. The model runs on a 150 km grid with 15 levels, and takes about four minutes on a Cyber-205. The standard output from the global products are wind, temperature, height, tropopause, and maximum wind. Various experiments have been conducted to see if short-range forecasters could improve on the upper-wind forecasts over the numerical model; the numerical model remains of paramount importance. Small-scale models are being run in the U.S. and the U.K. A fine-mesh model covers Europe and the Atlantic. A mesoscale model is under development. A great deal of verification work is done to see how good the models are.

Flood, Colin R.↗

Simulation and modeling of homogeneous, compressed turbulence

Low Reynolds number homogeneous turbulence undergoing low Mach number isotropic and one-dimensional compression was simulated by numerically solving the Navier-Stokes equations. The numerical simulations were performed on a CYBER 205 computer using a 64 x 64 x 64 mesh. A spectral method was used for spatial differencing and the second-order Runge-Kutta method for time advancement. A variety of statistical information was extracted from the computed flow fields. These include three-dimensional energy and dissipation spectra, two-point velocity correlations, one-dimensional energy spectra, turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate, integral length scales, Taylor microscales, and Kolmogorov length scale. Results from the simulated flow fields were used to test one-point closure, two-equation models. A new one-point-closure, three-equation turbulence model which accounts for the effect of compression is proposed. The new model accurately calculates four types of flows (isotropic decay, isotropic compression, one-dimensional compression, and axisymmetric expansion flows) for a wide range of strain rates.

Wu, C. T.↗

Development of a distributed-parameter mathematical model for simulation of cryogenic wind tunnels

A one-dimensional distributed-parameter dynamic model of a cryogenic wind tunnel was developed which accounts for internal and external heat transfer, viscous momentum losses, and slotted-test-section dynamics. Boundary conditions imposed by liquid-nitrogen injection, gas venting, and the tunnel fan were included. A time-dependent numerical solution to the resultant set of partial differential equations was obtained on a CDC CYBER 203 vector-processing digital computer at a usable computational rate. Preliminary computational studies were performed by using parameters of the Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Studies were performed by using parameters from the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The NTF wind-tunnel model was used in the design of control loops for Mach number, total temperature, and total pressure and for determining interactions between the control loops. It was employed in the application of optimal linear-regulator theory and eigenvalue-placement techniques to develop Mach number control laws.

Tripp, J. S.↗

Ocean modelling on the CYBER 205 at GFDL

At the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, research is carried out for the purpose of understanding various aspects of climate, such as its variability, predictability, stability and sensitivity. The atmosphere and oceans are modelled mathematically and their phenomenology studied by computer simulation methods. The present state-of-the-art in the computer simulation of large scale oceans on the CYBER 205 is discussed. While atmospheric modelling differs in some aspects, the basic approach used is similar. The equations of the ocean model are presented along with a short description of the numerical techniques used to find their solution. Computational considerations and a typical solution are presented in section 4.

Cox, M.↗

Calculation of a simulated 3-D high speed inlet using the Navier-Stokes equations

A hybrid numerical algorithm, developed to solve the full three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations, is applied to the computation of the flowfield in a simulated three-dimensional high speed aircraft inlet at a Mach number of 2.5 and Reynolds number of 1.4 x 10 to the 7th based on inlet length. The numerical algorithm incorporates a coordinate transformation in order to handle general flow geometries, and utilizes the algebraic turbulent eddy viscosity model of Baldwin and Lomax. The hybrid algorithm has been vectorized on the CDC CYBER 203 computer using the SL/1 vector programming language developed at NASA Langley. The computed results are compared with experimental measurements of the ramp and cowl static pressures, and boundary layer pitot profiles. The results are also compared with a previous two-dimensional Navier-Stokes computation of the same configuration. The agreement with the experimental data is generally good; however, additional improvements in turbulence modeling are needed.

Knight, D. D.↗

Trust-Based Detection and Mitigation of Cyber Attacks in Distributed Cooperative Control of Islanded AC Microgrids

In this study, we address the challenge of detecting and mitigating cyber attacks in the distributed cooperative control of islanded AC microgrids, with a particular focus on detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs), a significant threat to the Smart Grid (SG). The SG integrates traditional power systems with communication networks, creating a complex system with numerous vulnerable links, making it a prime target for cyber attacks. These attacks can lead to the disclosure of private data, control network failures, and even blackouts. Unlike machine learning-based approaches that require extensive datasets and mathematical models dependent on accurate system modeling, our method is free from such dependencies. To enhance the microgrid’s resilience against these threats, we propose a resilient control algorithm by introducing a novel trustworthiness parameter into the traditional cooperative control algorithm. Our method evaluates the trustworthiness of distributed energy resources (DERs) based on their voltage measurements and exchanged information, using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to dynamically adjust control actions. We validated our approach through simulations on both the IEEE-34 bus feeder system with eight DERs and a larger microgrid with twenty-two DERs. The results demonstrated a detection accuracy of around 100%, with millisecond range mitigation time, ensuring rapid system recovery. Additionally, our method improved system stability by up to almost 100% under attack scenarios, showcasing its effectiveness in promptly detecting attacks and maintaining system resilience. These findings highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the security and stability of microgrid systems in the face of cyber threats.

Computer Science↗

Proceedings of the First NASA Formal Methods Symposium

Topics covered include: Model Checking - My 27-Year Quest to Overcome the State Explosion Problem; Applying Formal Methods to NASA Projects: Transition from Research to Practice; TLA+: Whence, Wherefore, and Whither; Formal Methods Applications in Air Transportation; Theorem Proving in Intel Hardware Design; Building a Formal Model of a Human-Interactive System: Insights into the Integration of Formal Methods and Human Factors Engineering; Model Checking for Autonomic Systems Specified with ASSL; A Game-Theoretic Approach to Branching Time Abstract-Check-Refine Process; Software Model Checking Without Source Code; Generalized Abstract Symbolic Summaries; A Comparative Study of Randomized Constraint Solvers for Random-Symbolic Testing; Component-Oriented Behavior Extraction for Autonomic System Design; Automated Verification of Design Patterns with LePUS3; A Module Language for Typing by Contracts; From Goal-Oriented Requirements to Event-B Specifications; Introduction of Virtualization Technology to Multi-Process Model Checking; Comparing Techniques for Certified Static Analysis; Towards a Framework for Generating Tests to Satisfy Complex Code Coverage in Java Pathfinder; jFuzz: A Concolic Whitebox Fuzzer for Java; Machine-Checkable Timed CSP; Stochastic Formal Correctness of Numerical Algorithms; Deductive Verification of Cryptographic Software; Coloured Petri Net Refinement Specification and Correctness Proof with Coq; Modeling Guidelines for Code Generation in the Railway Signaling Context; Tactical Synthesis Of Efficient Global Search Algorithms; Towards Co-Engineering Communicating Autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems; and Formal Methods for Automated Diagnosis of Autosub 6000.

Denney, Ewen↗

Systems improved numerical differencing analyzer

Program solves physical problems governed by diffusion-type equations, provided that equations can be modeled by lumped-parameter representation. Program is used for thermal analysis, and could be adapted to solve Fourier, Poisson, and Laplace differential equations. Program is in FORTRAN IV and Assembler for execution on UNIVAC 1100-series or CYBER 175.

Source record↗

Radiation of sound from unflanged cylindrical ducts

Calculations of sound radiated from unflanged cylindrical ducts are presented. The numerical simulation models the problem of an aero-engine inlet. The time dependent linearized Euler equations are solved from a state of rest until a harmonic solution is attained. A fourth order accurate finite difference scheme is used and solutions are obtained from a fully vectorized Cyber-203 computer program. Cases of both plane waves and spin modes are treated. Spin modes model the sound generated by a turbofan engine. Boundary conditions for both plane waves and spin modes are treated. Solutions obtained are compared with experiments conducted at NASA Langley Research Center.

Hartharan, S. L.↗