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Comet Halley remote plasma tail observations and in situ solar wind properties - Vega-1/2 IMF/plasma observations and ground-based optical observations from 1 December 1985 to 1 May 1986

General features of the solar wind plasma and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are studied for the time period of December 1, 1985 - May 1, 1986. Characteristics studied include corotating events, shocks, and sector boundaries in the IMF. For the same period, Comet Halley was near its perihelion and many ground-based observations of the plasma tail were made. They show interesting events such as tail substorms and disconnection events where the whole distant plasma tail seems to be disrupted from the part that is still attached to the cometary head. Several mechanisms have been produced to explain the cause of these events. The correlation between the IMF sector boundaries measured by Vega and the observed disconnection events are studied, noting that such a correlation would support the dayside reconnection explanation. It is found that only in 50 percent of the considered events does a correlation between these two phenomena exist. For the other cases, a sector boundary of the IMF sweeping over the comet cannot explain the occurrence of disruptions of the main plasma tail.

Delva, Magda

The Influence of Observation Errors on Analysis Error and Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework is used to explore the response of analysis error and forecast skill to observation quality. In an OSSE, synthetic observations may be created that have much smaller error than real observations, and precisely quantified error may be applied to these synthetic observations. Three experiments are performed in which synthetic observations with magnitudes of applied observation error that vary from zero to twice the estimated realistic error are ingested into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation for a one-month period representing July. The analysis increment and observation innovation are strongly impacted by observation error, with much larger variances for increased observation error. The analysis quality is degraded by increased observation error, but the change in root-mean-square error of the analysis state is small relative to the total analysis error. Surprisingly, in the 120 hour forecast increased observation error only yields a slight decline in forecast skill in the extratropics, and no discernable degradation of forecast skill in the tropics.

Observation Error

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction

An Approach to Assess Observation Impact Based on Observation-Minus-Forecast Residuals

Langland and Baker (2004) introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived that relates changes in the aspect with changes in the initial conditions associated with the assimilation of observations) ultimately providing information about the impact of individual observations on the forecast. Some features of the approach are to be noted. The typical choice of forecast aspect employed in related works is rather arbitrary and leads to an incomplete assessment of the observing system. Furthermore, the state-space forecast aspect requires availability of a verification state that should ideally be uncorrelated with the forecast but in practice is not. Lastly, the approach involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and as such it is constrained by the validity of this operator. In this presentation, an observation-space metric is used that, for a relatively time-homogeneous observing system, allows inferring observation impact on the forecast without some of the limitations above. Specifically, using observation-minus-forecast residuals leads to an approach with the following features: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect, directly linked to the analysis system and providing full assessment of the observations; (ii) it naturally avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect by verifying against the observations; and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints; therefore being applicable to any length of forecast. The state and observation-space approaches might be complementary to some degree, and involve different limitations and complexities. Illustrations are given using the NASA GEOS-5 data.

Todling, Ricardo

HST WFC3 Observations of Uranus' 2014 Storm Clouds and Comparison with VLT/SINFONI and IRTF/Spex Observations

In November 2014 Uranus was observed with the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) instrument of the Hubble Space Telescope as part of the Hubble 2020: Outer Planet Atmospheres Legacy program, OPAL. OPAL annually maps Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune (and will also map Saturn from 2018) in several visible near- infrared wavelength filters. The Uranus 2014 OPAL observations were made on the 89th November at a time when a huge cloud complex, first observed by de Pater et al. (2015) and subsequently tracked by professional and amateur astronomers (Sayanagi et al., 2016), was present at 30-40deg N. We imaged the entire visible atmosphere, including the storm system, in seven filters spanning 467924 nm, capturing variations in the coloration of Uranus clouds and also vertical distribution due to wavelength dependent changes in Rayleigh scattering and methane absorption optical depth. Here we analyse these new HST observations with the NEMESIS radiative-transfer and retrieval code in multiple-scattering mode to determine the vertical cloud structure in and around the storm cloud system. The same storm system was also observed in the H-band (1.4-1.8 micrometers) with the SINFONI Integral Field Unit Spectrometer on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) on 31st October and 11th November, reported by Irwin et al. (2016, 10.1016j.icarus.2015.09.010). To constrain better the cloud particle sizes and scattering properties over a wide wavelength range we also conducted a limb-darkening analysis of the background cloud structure in the 30-40deg N latitude band by simultaneously fitting: a) these HSTOPAL observations at a range of zenith angles; b) the VLTSINFONI observations at a range of zenith angles; and c) IRTFSpeX observations of this latitude band made in 2009 at a single zenith angle of 23deg, spanning the wavelength range 0.8-1.8 micrometers (Irwin et al., 2015, 10.1016j.icarus.2014.12.020). We find that the HST observations, and the combined HSTVLTIRTF observations at all locations are well modelled with a three-component cloud comprised of: 1) a vertically thin, but optically thick deep tropospheric cloud at a pressure of approximately 2 bars; 2) a methane-ice cloud based at the methane-condensation level of approximately 1.23 bar, with variable vertical extent; and 3) a vertically extended tropospheric haze, also based at the methane-condensation level of 1.23 bar. We find that modelling both haze and tropospheric cloud with particles having an effective radius of approximately 0.1 micron provides a good fit the observations, although for the tropospheric cloud, particles with an effective radius as large as 1.0 micron provide a similarly good fit. We find that the particles in both the tropospheric cloud and haze are more scattering at short wave- lengths, giving them a blue color, but are more absorbing at longer wavelengths, especially for the tropospheric haze. We find that the spectra of the storm clouds are well modelled by localized thickening and vertical extension of the methane-ice cloud. For the particles in the storm clouds, which we assume to be composed of methane ice particles, we find that their mean radii must lie somewhere in the range 0. 1 1. 0 m. We find that the high clouds have low integrated opacity, and that streamers reminiscent of convective thunderstorm anvils are confined to levels deeper than 1 bar. These results argue against vigorous moist convective origins for the cloud features.

atmospheres

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive

Interleaved Observation Execution and Rescheduling on Earth Observing Systems

Observation scheduling for Earth orbiting satellites solves the following problem: given a set of requests for images of the Earth, a set of instruments for acquiring those images distributed on a collecting of orbiting satellites, and a set of temporal and resource constraints, generate a set of assignments of instruments and viewing times to those requests that satisfy those constraints. Observation scheduling is often construed as a constrained optimization problem with the objective of maximizing the overall utility of the science data acquired. The utility of an image is typically based on the intrinsic importance of acquiring it (for example, its importance in meeting a mission or science campaign objective) as well as the expected value of the data given current viewing conditions (for example, if the image is occluded by clouds, its value is usually diminished). Currently, science observation scheduling for Earth Observing Systems is done on the ground, for periods covering a day or more. Schedules are uplinked to the satellites and are executed rigorously. An alternative to this scenario is to do some of the decision-making about what images are to be acquired on-board. The principal argument for this capability is that the desirability of making an observation can change dynamically, because of changes in meteorological conditions (e.g. cloud cover), unforeseen events such as fires, floods, or volcanic eruptions, or un-expected changes in satellite or ground station capability. Furthermore, since satellites can only communicate with the ground between 5% to 10% of the time, it may be infeasible to make the desired changes to the schedule on the ground, and uplink the revisions in time for the on-board system to execute them. Examples of scenarios that motivate an on-board capability for revising schedules include the following. First, if a desired visual scene is completely obscured by clouds, then there is little point in taking it. In this case, satellite resources, such as power and storage space can be better utilized taking another image that is higher quality. Second, if an unexpected but important event occurs (such as a fire, flood, or volcanic eruption), there may be good reason to take images of it, instead of expending satellite resources on some of the lower priority scheduled observations. Finally, if there is unexpected loss of capability, it may be impossible to carry out the schedule of planned observations. For example, if a ground station goes down temporarily, a satellite may not be able to free up enough storage space to continue with the remaining schedule of observations. This paper describes an approach for interleaving execution of observation schedules with dynamic schedule revision based on changes to the expected utility of the acquired images. We describe the problem in detail, formulate an algorithm for interleaving schedule revision and execution, and discuss refinements to the algorithm based on the need for search efficiency. We summarize with a brief discussion of the tests performed on the system.

Khatib, Lina

Simultaneous Observations of Atmospheric Tides from Combined in Situ and Remote Observations at Mars from the MAVEN Spacecraft

We report the observations of longitudinal variations in the Martian thermosphere associated with nonmigrating tides. Using the Neutral Gas Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) and the Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS) on NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN Mission (MAVEN) spacecraft, this study presents the first combined analysis of in situ and remote observations of atmospheric tides at Mars for overlapping volumes, local times, and overlapping date ranges. From the IUVS observations, we determine the altitude and latitudinal variation of the amplitude of the nonmigrating tidal signatures, which is combined with the NGIMS, providing information on the compositional impact of these waves. Both the observations of airglow from IUVS and the CO2 density observations from NGIMS reveal a strong wave number 2 signature in a fixed local time frame. The IUVS observations reveal a strong latitudinal dependence in the amplitude of the wave number 2 signature. Combining this with the accurate CO2 density observations from NGIMS, this would suggest that the CO2 density variation is as high as 27% at 0-10 deg latitude. The IUVS observations reveal little altitudinal dependence in the amplitude of the wave number 2 signature, varying by only 20% from 160 to 200 km. Observations of five different species with NGIMS show that the amplitude of the wave number 2 signature varies in proportion to the inverse of the species scale height, giving rise to variation in composition as a function of longitude. The analysis and discussion here provide a roadmap for further analysis as additional coincident data from these two instruments become available.

atmospheric tides

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s Global Earth Observing System

The upcoming retrospective analysis for the 21st century (R21C) reanalysis product from NASA will include the full dataset of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) observations collected by Spire with their constellation of smallsats. The Spire RO dataset, which was purchased by NASA for its Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) archive, has global coverage and includes approximately 6 thousand RO profiles per day during 2019 increasing to nearly 20 thousand in 2022-2023. This more than doubles the volume of RO profiles from all other routinely assimilated RO missions combined during 2023. The increase in the number of RO profiles available is particularly important in the extratropics as the next largest RO constellation, the state-of-the-science Formosa Satellite Mission 7 (FORMOSAT-7)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) mission (hereafter COSMIC-2), is focused on the Tropics and only provides approximately 4 thousand RO profiles per day. The large number of observations in the Spire RO dataset have great potential to improve analyses and forecasts of the Earth’s atmosphere produced by numerical weather prediction systems. Their impact is assessed through numerical experiments using NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) with and without the observations from the COSMIC-2 mission. The ability of the Spire RO observations to make up for the omission of the RO observations from COSMIC-2 is directly assessed over the tropics and the impact of Spire over the extratropics is compared to that of the available RO missions that sample over this region. Finally, the quality of the Spire RO observations is compared to that of the routinely assimilated RO missions using Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI).

Michael J. Murphy, Jr.

An Observational Evaluation of RKW Theory over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

The theory of Rotunno et al. (“RKW” theory) addresses the behavior of squall-line cold pools in vertically sheared flows. It predicts that, within a given thermodynamic environment, a balance between baroclinic vorticity generation by the cold pool and low-level environmental vertical wind shear induces an upright updraft along the gust front that maximizes the initiation of new convective cells. Although this theory has been evaluated numerically, its applicability to observed systems remains unclear and is limited by a lack of critical measurements, including high-frequency thermodynamic and wind profiles across the gust front. Herein, observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) observatory near Lamont, Oklahoma, are used to evaluate RKW theory for 10 well-observed squall lines over a 11-yr period. For this evaluation, RKW parameters including cold-pool intensity (c), low-level ambient, line-normal vertical shear (ΔV n ), subcloud and cloud-layer updraft tilts, and multiple measures of system intensity are estimated. Furthermore, the c estimates rely on thermodynamic retrievals from the Atmosphere Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are uncertain but verify reasonably well against independent observations. As predicted by the theory, for c/ΔV n ≥ 1, c/ΔV n correlates positively with updraft tilt and negatively with system intensity, but these results are not always statistically significant and are also sensitive to the method by which ΔV n is evaluated. Specifically, ΔV n evaluations that extend above the cold-pool top yield greater consistency with RKW predictions. Also, some measures of intensity correlate more strongly with standard moist instability metrics than with RKW parameters.

Cold pools

Near-Earth asteroids: Observer alert network and physical observations

This project strives to obtain physical observations on newly discovered Near-Earth Objects (NEO's) in order to provide fundamental data needed to assess the resources available in the population. The goal is acquiring data on all objects brighter than magnitude V= 17.0. To accomplish this, an electronic mail alert and observer information service that informs observers around the world as to the status of physical observations on currently observable NEO's was established. Such data is also acquired ourselves through a cooperative program with European colleagues that uses telescopes on La Palma to obtain spectra of NEO's and through observations made from a local telescope on Tumamoc Hill. This latter telescope has the advantage that large amounts of observing time are available, so that whenever a new NEO's discovered, we can be assured of getting time to observe it.

Davis, Donald R.

EUVE Guest Observer Program Handbook: Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Guest Observer Documentation: Use with Addendum 1 for 1995 - Appendix G

The Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) is a NASA explorer-class satellite mission devoted entirely to observations in the wavelength range from 70 to 760 Angstroms. The science payload incorporates five separate instruments: four photometric imaging systems and a three-channel EUV spectrometer. During the first phase of the mission, the imaging instruments were used to conduct a complete sky survey in four different bands in the EUV. The survey results are available to the scientific community in the first EUVE sky survey bright source list and the first EUVE all-sky catalog. The second part of the mission is being conducted by NASA as a Guest Observer program, for which pointed spectroscopic observations are conducted for guest scientists under proposals submitted to NASA and supported by the EUVE Guest Observer Center at Berkeley. The mission lifetime will extend through at least a third year of observations. Further extensions of the EUVE mission will be partially contingent upon a review process conducted in September of 1994. To support an extended mission, please contact the chair of the EUVE User 's Committee1 or the EUVE Project Office (address below). The EUVE Guest Observer (EGO) Program is supported by the EUVE Guest Observer Center (EGO Center) at the Center for Extreme Ultraviolet Astrophysics (CEA), at the University of California, Berkeley. The policies of the EGO Program and specified in the NRA. This Handbook is produced by the EGO Center as a guide to choosing appropriate targets for observation and preparing proposals. The rest of this chapter gives a broad overview of the EUVE mission and the EGO Center.

EUVE

Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign. 3: Coronal plasma and magnetic field diagnostics derived from multiwaveband active region observations

Simultaneous soft X-ray, microwave, and photospheric magnetic field observations were taken during the Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign (CoMStOC '87). The plasma electron temperature and emission measures determined from the X-ray data are used to predict the free-free emission expected at 20 and 6 cm. Comparing these predictions with the microwave observations, it is found that the predicted 20 cm brightness temperatures are higher than the observed, requiring cool absorbing material between the hot X-ray plasma and the observer. The model that is most consistent with all the observations and minimizes the required coronal fields indicates that this 20 cm emission is either free-free or a combination of free-free and fourth harmonic cyclotron emanating from the X-ray plasma with an electron temperature of approximately 3.1 x 10(exp 6) K and an emission measure of approximately 1.3 x 10(exp 29)/cm(exp 5). The observed 20 cm polarization requires a field strength of greater than or equal to 150 G. In addition, the 6 cm emission is free-free, emanating from cooler plasma with an electron temperature of approximately 1.5 x 10(exp 6) K and an emission measure of approximately 3-6 x 10(exp 29)/cm(exp 5). This model is consistent with the rather unusual combination of high 20 cm and low 6 cm polarization as well as the low extrapolated coronal fields.

Schmelz, J. T.

Comparison of lightning observations from the KSC LDAR system with radar observations from the NCAR CP-2 radar

This grant supported observations of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center during the summer of 1995. In particular, we obtained detailed observations of lightning-producing storms over KSC with the CP2 radar of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), for the purpose of comparing these with observations from KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. The NCAR radar was a special purpose dual-polarization system for studying the development of precipitation in storms and was at KSC for another project, the Small Cumulus Microphysics Study - SCMS. We used the radar on a non-interference basis to obtain the desired observations. In addition we recorded the electrostatic field change of the lightning discharges at two locations. Subsequent to the field observational period we compared the LDAR lightning observations with the storm structure as indicated by the radar. The results obtained to date are summarized briefly as follows: (1) The initial lightning sequence in a small developing storm was observed to occur in a region of the storm where supercooled raindrops had frozen within the previous few minutes. This is consistent with the idea that the storm electrification is produced by interactions between ice particles. (2) The lightning discharges tended to avoid regions of supercooled liquid raindrops, possibly indicating that corona from the drops reduces any electrification in the vicinity of the drops. (3) 'Bilevel' lightning discharges within storms have been confirmed to be between the level of negative charge at mid-levels in the storm and the upper storm level. This is consistent with and expands upon our understanding that storms have a basic dipolar charge structure. (4) The upward channels of the intracloud lightning discharges are often aligned with shafts of strong precipitation, and often begin just above the upper extent of 40 dBZ reflectivity in the precipitation shaft. This is consistent with a precipitation-based mechanism of electrification.

Krehbiel, Paul

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Transition Region: Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array Observations - 1

We report on observations of the solar atmosphere in several extreme-ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet bandpasses obtained by the Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array, a rocket-borne spectroheliograph, on flights in 1987, 1991, and 1994, spanning the last solar maximum. Quiet-Sun emission observed in the 171-175 Angstrom bandpass, which includes lines of O v, O VI, Fe IX, and Fe X, has been analyzed to test models of the temperatures and geometries of the structures responsible for this emission. Analyses of intensity variations above the solar limb reveal scale heights consistent with a quiet-Sun plasma temperature of 500,000 less than or equal to T (sub e) less than or equal to 800,000 K. The structures responsible for the quiet-Sun EUV emission are modeled as small quasi-static loops. We submit our models to several tests. We compare the emission our models would produce in the bandpass of our telescope to the emission we have observed. We find that the emission predicted by loop models with maximum temperatures between 700,000 and 900,000 K are consistent with our observations. We also compare the absolute flux predicted by our models in a typical upper transition region line to the flux measured by previous observers. Finally, we present a preliminary comparison of the predictions of our models with diagnostic spectral line ratios from previous observers. Intensity modulations in the quiet Sun are observed to occur on a scale comparable to the supergranular scale. We discuss the implications that a distribution of loops of the type we model here would have for heating the local network at the loops' footpoints.

Oluseyi, Hakeem M.

Comparison of CERES SYN1deg Radiative Fluxes with Those Derived from Observations at the ARM ENA Site

Profiles of radiative fluxes simulated from thermodynamic and cloud observations made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site for a 6-yr period are termed as ENARad. ENARad radiative fluxes are compared to those from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) 1°-resolution synoptic product (SYN1deg)-simulated radiative flux profiles as well as the CERES instrument observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and ground site broadband radiometer measurements. Monthly average differences between ENARad and surface radiometer reported fluxes and differences between ENARad, SYN1deg, and observed fluxes at TOA were statistically insignificant. SYN1deg significantly overestimated surface downwelling shortwave flux by 12 ± 52 W m −2 and surface downwelling longwave flux by 5 ± 20 W m −2 on monthly time scales. Such overestimations were traced to a moister and warmer subcloud layer, a drier cloud layer, and a moister and colder above-cloud-free troposphere in the ancillary thermodynamic and cloud properties used by SYN1deg than observed. Similarly, low-cloud coverage, boundaries, and liquid water paths utilized by SYN1deg were also significantly higher than observed. Intramodel differences in the hourly values of shortwave fluxes exceeded 100 W m−2 at the TOA and the surface. These differences were also due to inaccuracies in the representation of low-cloud properties within the SYN1deg product relative to those determined by ENA ARM instrumentation and used as ENARad ancillary data. Results presented are relevant to investigations employing the CERES SYN1deg data product, studies that estimate radiative fluxes from surface-based or satellite-borne observations, and comparative analyses of radiative fluxes derived using different methodological approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES