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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Pacific decadal oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans

Abstract The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the leading mode of Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability, arises mainly from combinations of regional air-sea interaction within the North Pacific Ocean and remote forcing, such as from the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Because of such a combination of mechanisms, a question remains as to how much PDO variability originates from these regions. To better understand PDO variability, the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic impacts on the PDO are examined using several 3-dimensional partial ocean data assimilation experiments conducted with two global climate models: the CESM1.0 and MIROC3.2m. In these partial assimilation experiments, the climate models are constrained by observed temperature and salinity anomalies, one solely in the Atlantic basin and the other solely in the equatorial Pacific basin, but are allowed to evolve freely in other regions. These experiments demonstrate that, in addition to the tropical Pacific’s role in driving PDO variability, the Atlantic can affect PDO variability by modulating the tropical Pacific climate through two proposed processes. One is the equatorial pathway, in which tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability causes an El Niño-like SST response in the equatorial Pacific through the reorganization of the global Walker circulation. The other is the north tropical pathway, where low-frequency SST variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation induces a Matsuno-Gill type atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic-Pacific sectors north of the equator. These results provide a quantitative assessment suggesting that 12–29% of PDO variance originates from the Atlantic Ocean and 40–44% from the tropical Pacific. The remaining 27–48% of the variance is inferred to arise from other processes such as regional ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Pacific and possibly teleconnections from the Indian Ocean.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

Boundary Layer Structures Over the Northwest Atlantic Derived From Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar and Dropsonde Measurements During the ACTIVATE Campaign

The Planetary Boundary Layer height (PBLH) is essential for studying PBL and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Marine PBL is usually defined to include a mixed layer (ML) and a capping inversion layer. The ML height (MLH) estimated from the measurements of aerosol backscatter by a lidar was usually compared with PBLH determined from radiosondes/dropsondes in the past, as the PBLH is usually similar to MLH in nature. However, PBLH can be much greater than MLH for decoupled PBL. Here, in this study, we evaluate the retrieved MLH from an airborne lidar (HSRL-2) by utilizing 506 co-located dropsondes during the ACTIVATE field campaign over the Northwest Atlantic from 2020 to 2022. First, we define and determine the MLH and PBLH from the temperature and humidity profiles of each dropsonde, and find that the MLH values from HSRL-2 and dropsondes agree well with each other, with a coefficient of determination of 0.66 and median difference of 18 m. In contrast, the HSRL-2 MLH data do not correspond to dropsonde-derived PBLH, with a median difference of -47 m. Therefore, we modify the current operational and automated HSRL-2 wavelet-based algorithm for PBLH retrieval, decreasing the median difference significantly to -8 m. Further data analysis indicates that these conclusions remain the same for cases with higher or lower cloud fractions, and for decoupled PBLs. These results demonstrate the potential of using HSRL-2 aerosol backscatter data to estimate both marine MLH and PBLH and suggest that lidar-derived MLH should be compared with radiosonde/dropsonde-determined MLH (not PBLH) in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Tropical Cyclone—Ocean Interactions in Future Changes in Hurricane Katrina

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. However, some projections are based on atmosphere‐only models in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed, whereas projections based on global atmosphere‐ocean coupled models can be subject to long‐term ocean biases. We investigated the role of TC‐ocean interactions in future changes in TC intensity and precipitation in Hurricane Katrina. We performed four‐member ensembles using convection‐permitting atmosphere‐only and atmosphere‐ocean regional models for the historical climate and four future climates. We found that although future TC intensity and precipitation increased regardless of ocean coupling, ocean coupling dampened the future minimum sea‐level pressure decrease by half and amplified future precipitation scaling. Compared to future changes in upper‐ocean temperature, changes in salinity contributed little to future changes in TC intensity. This study highlights the importance of considering TC‐ocean interactions to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude of future TC intensity and precipitation projections.

climate change↗

Long-Term Trends for Marine Sulfur Aerosol in the Alaskan Arctic and Relationships With Temperature

Marine aerosol plays a vital role in cloud-aerosol interactions during summer in the Arctic. The recent rise in temperature and decrease in sea ice extent have the potential to impact marine biogenic sources. Compounds like methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO 4 2- ), oxidation products of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emitted by marine primary producers, are likely to increase in concentration. Long-term studies are vital to understand these changes in marine sulfur aerosol and potential interactions with Arctic climate. Samples were collected over three summers at two coastal sites on the North Slope of Alaska (Utqiagvik and Oliktok Point). MSA concentrations followed previously reported seasonal trends, with evidence of high marine primary productivity influencing both sites. When added to an additional data set collected at Utqiagvik, an increase in MSA concentration of + 2.5% per year and an increase in nss-SO 4 2- of + 2.1% per year are observed for the summer season over the 20-year record (1998–2017). This study identifies ambient air temperature as a strong factor for MSA, likely related to a combination of interrelated factors including warmer sea surface temperature, reduced sea ice, and temperature-dependent chemical reactions. Analysis of individual particles at Oliktok Point, within the North Slope of Alaska oil fields, showed evidence of condensation of MSA onto anthropogenic particles, highlighting the connection between marine and oil field emissions and secondary organic aerosol. Finally, this study shows the continued importance of understanding MSA in the Arctic while highlighting the need for further research into its seasonal relationship with organic carbon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Earth System Model Energy and Water Cycles

Earth system models parameterize ocean surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum with empirical bulk flux algorithms, which introduce biases and uncertainties into simulations. We investigate the atmosphere and ocean model sensitivity to algorithm choice in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Flux differences between algorithms are larger in atmosphere simulations (where wind speeds can vary) than ocean simulations (where wind speeds are fixed by forcing data). Surface flux changes lead to global scale changes in the energy and water cycles, notably including ocean heat uptake and global mean precipitation rates. Compared to the control algorithm, both COARE and University of Arizona (UA) algorithms reduce global mean precipitation and top of atmosphere radiative biases. Further, UA may slightly reduce biases in ocean meridional heat transport. We speculate that changes seen here, especially in the ocean, could be even larger in coupled simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

African smoke particles act as cloud condensation nuclei in the wintertime tropical North Atlantic boundary layer over Barbados

Abstract. The number concentration and properties of aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are important for understanding cloud properties, including in the tropical Atlantic marine boundary layer (MBL), where marine cumulus clouds reflect incoming solar radiation and obscure the low-albedo ocean surface. Studies linking aerosol source, composition, and water uptake properties in this region have been conducted primarily during the summertime dust transport season, despite the region receiving a variety of aerosol particle types throughout the year. In this study, we compare size-resolved aerosol chemical composition data to the hygroscopicity parameter κ derived from size-resolved CCN measurements made during the Elucidating the Role of Clouds–Circulation Coupling in Climate (EUREC4A) and Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC) campaigns from January to February 2020. We observed unexpected periods of wintertime long-range transport of African smoke and dust to Barbados. During these periods, the accumulation-mode aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations as well as the proportions of dust and smoke particles increased, whereas the average κ slightly decreased (κ=0.46±0.10) from marine background conditions (κ=0.52±0.09) when the submicron particles were mostly composed of marine organics and sulfate. Size-resolved chemical analysis shows that smoke particles were the major contributor to the accumulation mode during long-range transport events, indicating that smoke is mainly responsible for the observed increase in CCN number concentrations. Earlier studies conducted at Barbados have mostly focused on the role of dust on CCN, but our results show that aerosol hygroscopicity and CCN number concentrations during wintertime long-range transport events over the tropical North Atlantic are also affected by African smoke. Our findings highlight the importance of African smoke for atmospheric processes and cloud formation over the Caribbean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sea surface warming and ocean-to-atmosphere feedback driven by large-scale offshore wind farms under seasonally stratified conditions

Offshore wind farms may induce changes in the upper ocean and near-surface atmosphere through coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Yet, the role of air-sea interactions mediated by offshore wind farms remains poorly understood. Using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model simulations for seasonally stratified conditions along the US East Coast, we show that simulated cumulative reductions in wind stress due to large-scale wind farm clusters lead to sea surface warming of 0.3° to 0.4°C and a shallower mixed layer. This warming drives upward heat fluxes, destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer and enhancing wind stress, which partially offsets wake-induced wind deficits. These wake-ocean interactions influence near-surface meteorology and air-sea fluxes, suggesting that a coupled modeling approach may be necessary for assessing potential oceanographic impacts of offshore wind developments. However, ocean coupling exerts limited influence on winds at turbine-relevant heights or within downstream wakes, resulting in minimal impact on long-term energy. These findings suggest that models without ocean coupling may be adequate for wind energy applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

Mantaray: A Rust Package for Ray Tracing Ocean Surface Gravity Waves

Ocean surface gravity waves are an important component of air-sea interaction, influencing energy, momentum, and gas exchanges across the ocean-atmosphere interface. In specific applications such as refraction by ocean currents or bathymetry, ray tracing provides a computationally efficient way to gain insight into wave propagation. In this paper, we introduce Mantaray, an open-source software package implemented in Rust, with a Python interface, that solves the ray equations for ocean surface gravity waves. Mantaray is designed for performance, robustness, and ease of use. The package is modular to facilitate further development and can currently be applied to both idealized and realistic wave propagation problems (Fig. 1).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗

Stability Analysis of Interface Conditions for Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling

In this paper, we analyze the stability of different coupling strategies for multidomain PDEs that arise in general circulation models used in climate simulations. We focus on fully coupled ocean–atmosphere models that are needed to represent and understand the complicated interactions of these two systems, becoming increasingly important in climate change assessment in recent years. Numerical stability issues typically arise because of different time-stepping strategies applied to the coupled PDE system. In particular, the contributing factors include using large time steps, lack of accurate interface flux, and single-iteration coupling. We investigate the stability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere models for various interface conditions such as the Dirichlet–Neumann condition and the bulk interface condition, which is unique to climate modeling. By analyzing a simplified model, we demonstrate here how the parameterization of the bulk condition and other numerical and physical parameters affect the coupling stability and establish stability conditions for different coupling strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Rain-Induced Stratification of the Equatorial Indian Ocean and Its Potential Feedback to the Atmosphere

Surface freshening through precipitation can act to stably stratify the upper ocean, forming a rain layer (RL). RLs inhibit subsurface vertical mixing, isolating deeper ocean layers from the atmosphere. This process has been studied using observations and idealized simulations. The present ocean modeling study builds upon this body of work by incorporating spatially resolved and realistic atmospheric forcing. Fine-scale observations of the upper ocean collected during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field campaign are used to verify the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Spatiotemporal characteristics of equatorial Indian Ocean RLs are then investigated by forcing a 2D array of GOTM columns with realistic and well-resolved output from an existing regional atmospheric simulation. RL influence on the ocean-atmosphere system is evaluated through analysis of RL-induced modification to surface fluxes and sea surface temperature (SST). This analysis demonstrates that RLs cool the ocean surface on time scales longer than the associated precipitation event. A second simulation with identical atmospheric forcing to that in the first, but with rainfall set to zero, is performed to investigate the role of rain temperature and salinity stratification in maintaining cold SST anomalies within RLs. Approximately one third, or 0.1°C, of the SST reduction within RLs can be attributed to rain effects, while the remainder is attributed to changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity. The prolonged RL-induced SST anomalies enhance SST gradients that have been shown to favor the initiation of atmospheric convection. These findings encourage continued research of RL feedbacks to the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗