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Mass extinctions: Persistent problems and new directions

Few contest that mass extinctions have punctuated the history of life, or that those events were so pervasive environmentally, taxonomically, and geographically that physical forcing factors were probably involved. However, consensus remains elusive on the nature of those factors, and on how a given perturbation - impact, volcanism, sea-level change, or ocean anoxic event - could actually generate the observed intensity and selectivity of biotic losses. At least two basic problems underlie these long-standing disagreements: difficulties in resolving the fine details of taxon ranges and abundances immediately prior to and after an extinction boundary and the scarcity of simple, unitary cause-and-effect relations in complex biological systems.

Jablonski, D.↗

Volcanic Climate Warming through Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks of SO2 Emissions

Volcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400M years of Earth’s history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically-driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer-term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model to simulate a four-year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.

Scott D Guzewich↗

Volcanic Climate Warming through Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks of SO2 Emissions

Volcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400M years of Earth’s history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically-driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer-term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model to simulate a four-year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.

Scott D Guzewich↗

Episodes of terrestrial geologic activity during the past 260 million years - A quantitative approach

Records of major geologic events of the past about 260 Myr including: biologic extinction events, ocean-anoxic and black-shale events, major changes in sea level, major evaporite (salt) deposits, continental flood-basalt eruptions, first-order discontinuities in sea-floor spreading, and major mountain building events, have been aggregated and analyzed with moving-window and spectral techniques that facilitate recognition of clustering and possible cyclicity. Significant clustering of events suggests a model in which changes in rates and directions of sea-floor spreading ('ridge jumps') are associated with episodic rifting, volcanism, mountain building, global sea level and changes in the composition of the earth's atmosphere via the carbon cycle. The geologic data formally show a statistically significant underlying periodicity of 26.6 Myr for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Phase information suggests that the most recent maximum of the cycle occurred with the last 9 Myr, and may be close to the present time.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Major episodes of geologic change - Correlations, time structure and possible causes

Published data sets of major geologic events of the past about 250 Myr (extinction events, sea-level lows, continental flood-basalt eruptions, mountain-building events, abrupt changes in sea-floor spreading, ocean-anoxic and blackshale events and the largest evaporite deposits) have been synthesized (with estimated errors). These events show evidence for a statistically significant periodic component with an underlying periodicity, formally equal to 26.6 Myr, and a recent maximum, close to the present time. The cycle may not be strictly periodic, but a periodicity of about 30 Myr is robust to probable errors in dating of the geologic events. The intervals of geologic change seem to involve jumps in sea-floor spreading associated with episodic continental rifting, volcanism, enhanced orogeny, global sea-level changes and fluctuations in climate. The period may represent a purely internal earth-pulsation, but evidence of planetesimal impacts at several extinction boundaries, and a possible underlying cycle of 28-36 Myr in crater ages, suggests that highly energetic impacts may be affecting global tectonics. A cyclic increase in the flux of planetesimals might result from the passage of the Solar System through the central plane of the Milky Way Galaxy - an event with a periodicity and mean phasing similar to that detected in the geologic changes.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton and estimates of ancient CO2 levels

Reports of the 13C content of marine particulate organic carbon are compiled and on the basis of GEOSECS data and temperatures, concentrations, and isotopic compositions of dissolved CO2 in the waters in which the related phytoplankton grew are estimated. In this way, the fractionation of carbon isotopes during photosynthetic fixation of CO2 is found to be significantly correlated with concentrations of dissolved CO2. Because ancient carbon isotopic fractionations have been determined from analyses of sedimentary porphyrins [Popp et al., 1989], the relationship between isotopic fractionation and concentrations of dissolved CO2 developed here can be employed to estimate concentrations of CO2 dissolved in ancient oceans and, in turn, partial pressures of CO2 in ancient atmospheres. The calculations take into account the temperature dependence of chemical and isotopic equilibria in the dissolved-inorganic-carbon system and of air-sea equilibria. Paleoenvironmental temperatures for each sample are estimated from reconstructions of paleogeography, latitudinal temperature gradients, and secular changes in low-latitude sea surface temperature. It is estimated that atmospheric partial pressures of CO2 were over 1000 micro atm 160 - 100 Ma ago, then declined to values near 300 micro atm during the next 100 Ma. Analysis of a high-resolution record of carbon isotopic fractionation at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary suggests that the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere was drawn down from values near 840 micro atm to values near 700 micro atm during the anoxic event.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Merging Analytic Collaborative Frameworks with New Observing Strategies Toward a Digital Twin: Earth – Episodic Pulse Event Impacts on Ocean Carbon Cycle as an Example

Virtual representations of the Earth will allow us to address some of the most critical environmental issues of our time. Here, we show the first steps toward representation of riverine, estuarine, and coastal carbon processes to enable scenario driven “what-if” analyses of the carbon system and human footprint. Excess sediment and nutrient runoff from land-based human activities impact water quality and can pose serious threats to coastal and marine ecosystems. Episodic pulse events, such as extreme precipitation events, can increase the amount of nutrients entering estuaries and coastal regions, potentially leading to large phytoplankton blooms followed by anoxic conditions. Consequences of coastal runoff are predicted to increase with the higher intensity and frequency of extreme events. Beyond the threat to coastal ecosystems, recent findings suggest these episodic pulses might play a significant role for biological production influencing regional and global carbon fluxes and budgets. An improved understanding of these events through optimal, dynamic observing strategies will increase our knowledge of the land-ocean continuum and how regional events and nutrient fluxes affect the carbon cycle and ocean ecosystem. This conceptual framework enables focused science investigations by pairing data analytics and artificial intelligence tools (otherwise termed an Analytic Center Framework, ACF) with targeted measurement acquisition through distributed sensing and intelligent asset tasking (or New Observing Strategies, NOS). This NOS and ACF iterative approach acquires and integrates complementary and coincident satellite, in-situ and model data to build a more complete and in-depth picture of science phenomena. Specifically, Apache Science Data Analytic Platform (SDAP) is extended to incorporate relevant datasets for data access, harmonized analysis, and anomaly detection. When conditions are met for a likely pulse event, NASA’s D-SHIELD (Distributed Spacecraft with Heuristic Intelligence to Enable Logistical Decisions) tool is triggered to optimize asset overpass frequency and schedule observations for persistent monitoring. Targeted data is ingested by SDAP for enhanced investigation via iterative analysis until the trigger criteria is no longer met - steps toward a digital twin.

Laura Rogers↗

In Situ Carbon and Sulfur Isotope Analysis of Archean Organic Matter and Pyrite

Stable isotopic compositions of biologically important elements (e.g., C and S) in sedimentary rocks are valuable biosignatures to the extent that they indicate the presence and variable expression of microbial metabolisms in space and time. Strong interactions between the carbon and sulfur cycles (e.g., via organic matter remineralization during microbial sulfate reduction) make coordinated, in situ C and S isotope analysis by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) a particularly powerful tool. In rocks ranging in age from 2.7-2.5 Ga, expansions in the ranges of delta C-13 of organic matter and delta S-34 of pyrite likely reflect the increasing influence of oxygenic photosynthesis in the surface ocean (as well as methane and sulfur metabolisms in deeper waters), whereas the large range of mass independent sulfur isotope fractionation (Delta S-33) suggests that the atmosphere remained anoxic until approx 2.4 Gyr ago. We report in situ delta C-13 measurements of organic matter in the approx 2.7-2.6 Ga Carawine Dolomite, Marra Mamba Iron Formation, and Jeerinah, Wittenoom, and Tumbiana Formations, as well as the approx 2.5 Ga Mount McRae Shale. We also report in situ delta S-24 and Delta S-33 measurements of pyrite associated with organic matter in a subset of these samples. In a single square cm sample of the Tumbiana Formation with bulk delta C-13(sub org) of -49.7% (VPDB), two distinct kerogen types have delta C-13 values, measured in situ, consistent with oxygenic photosynthesis (-33%) and methane metabolism (-52%). In a sample from the ABDP-9 core, radiobitumen associated with a uraniferous mineral grain is C-13-enriched by 8% (-26.8%0) relative to average in situ kerogen (-34.9%0) and similar in delta C-13 to solvent extractable hydrocarbons from the Mount McRae Shale (avg delta C-13 = -27.1 %). Average reproducibility for delta C-13 was 0.4% (2 SD) using a 6 micron spot and 0.8% using a 3 micron spot. In situ sulfur isotope analyses of 33 authigenic pyrite grains in 3 samples of the ABDP-9 core using a 10 micron spot (2 SD reproducibility = 0.4% for delta S-34 and -0.1% for Delta S-33) show a range of 28.1 % in delta S-34 (-10.3 to 17.8%) and 13.3%0 in Delta S-33 (-3.8 to 9.5%), whereas the range from 132 bulk analyses across 84 m of core is 19.4% for delta S-34 and 11.5% for Delta S-33. Coordinated, in situ carbon and sulfur isotope analyses in one ABDP-9 sample are shown. In situ values from this kerogen-pyrite association are within 0.1% of the bulk value in the case of delta C-13 and higher by several permil in the case of delta S-34 and Delta S-33. Coordinated in situ carbon and sulfur isotope analyses in rocks deposited during key intervals of environmental change (e.g., the Great Oxidation Event) can refine our understanding of the mode and tempo of change. In Earth's oldest sedimentary rocks, and in extraterrestrial samples, these coordinated in situ analyses may reveal biosignatures in the form of isotopic correlations at the scale of individual microorganisms and their microhabitats.

Williford, K. H.↗