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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Virtual Time III, Part 2: Combining Conservative and Optimistic Synchronization

This is Part 2 of a trio of works intended to provide a unifying framework in which conservative and optimistic synchronization for parallel discrete event simulations can be freely and transparently combined in the same logical process on an event-by-event basis. Here, in this article, we continue the outline of an approach called Unified Virtual Time (UVT) that was introduced in Part 1, showing in detail via two extended examples how conservative synchronization can be refactored and combined with optimistic synchronization in the UVT framework. We describe UVT versions of both a basic time windowing algorithm called Unified Simple Time Windows and a refactored version of the Chandy-Misra-Bryant Null Message algorithm called Unified CMB.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Optimistic barrier synchronization

Barrier synchronization is fundamental operation in parallel computation. In many contexts, at the point a processor enters a barrier it knows that it has already processed all the work required of it prior to synchronization. The alternative case, when a processor cannot enter a barrier with the assurance that it has already performed all the necessary pre-synchronization computation, is treated. The problem arises when the number of pre-sychronization messages to be received by a processor is unkown, for example, in a parallel discrete simulation or any other computation that is largely driven by an unpredictable exchange of messages. We describe an optimistic O(log sup 2 P) barrier algorithm for such problems, study its performance on a large-scale parallel system, and consider extensions to general associative reductions as well as associative parallel prefix computations.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

An optimist's guide to supernovae

There are some hints that a satisfactory agreement between observations and models is developing in several areas of supernova research. The light curves and spectra of Type I supernovae look so much like the models that they may well have their origin in the synthesis of Ni-56 in the explosion of a compact star. Type II supernovae are found where massive stars form, have light curves that correspond to 10 to the 51st ergs suddenly deposited inside a red supergiant, and may in fact be the explosions of massive stars. Some young supernova remnants, such as Cas A, show abundance patterns that bear a striking resemblance to those seen deep inside models of massive stars on the verge of destruction. Observations of old supernova remnants provide energy estimate of 10 to the 51st ergs - just the amount needed for the models of the outbursts.

Kirshner, R. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Virtual Time III, Part 1: Unified Virtual Time Synchronization for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation

Algorithms for synchronization of parallel discrete event simulation have historically been divided between conservative methods that require lookahead but not rollback, and optimistic methods that require rollback but not lookahead. In this paper we present a new approach in the form of a framework called Unified Virtual Time (UVT) that unifies the two approaches, combining the advantages of both within a single synchronization theory. Whenever timely lookahead information is available, a logical process (LP) executes conservatively using an irreversible event handler. When lookahead information is not available the LP does not block, as it would in a classical conservative execution, but instead executes optimistically using a reversible event handler. The switch from conservative to optimistic synchronization and back is decided on an event-by-event basis by the simulator, transparently to the model code. UVT treats conservative synchronization algorithms as optional accelerators for an underlying optimistic synchronization algorithm, enabling the speed of conservative execution whenever it is applicable, but otherwise falling back on the generality of optimistic execution. We describe UVT in a novel way, based on fundamental invariants, monotonicity requirements, and synchronization rules. UVT permits zero-delay messages and pays careful attention to tie-handling using superposition. We prove that under fairly general conditions a UVT simulation always makes progress in virtual time. This is Part 1 of a trio of papers describing the UVT framework for PDES, mixing conservative and optimistic synchronization and integrating throttling control.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Virtual Time III, Part 3: Throttling and Message Cancellation

This is Part 3 of a trio of papers that unify in a natural way the two historically distinct parallel discrete event synchronization paradigms, optimistic and conservative, combining the best properties of both into a single framework called Unified Virtual Time (UVT). In this part, we survey the synchronization effects that can be achieved by restricting to corner cases the relationships permitted among the control variables, GVT, CVT, TVT, and LVT, which were defined in Part 1. Here we also survey various throttling policies from the literature and describe how they can be implemented in UVT by controlling the value of TVT, including policies that can take advantage of rollback in addition to LP blocking. A significant result is a new category of efficient and higher precision throttling algorithms for optimistic execution that are based on optimistic lookahead, defined in a way that is symmetric to what we now call the conservative lookahead information that is traditionally used for conservative synchronization. Finally, we present a novel algorithm allowing the choice between lazy and aggressive cancellation to be made on a message-by-message basis using either external logic expressed in the model code, or policy code internal to the simulator, or a mixture of both.

throttling↗
NASA NTRS1992

Synchronization Of Parallel Discrete Event Simulations

Adaptive, parallel, discrete-event-simulation-synchronization algorithm, Breathing Time Buckets, developed in Synchronous Parallel Environment for Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation (SPEEDES) operating system. Algorithm allows parallel simulations to process events optimistically in fluctuating time cycles that naturally adapt while simulation in progress. Combines best of optimistic and conservative synchronization strategies while avoiding major disadvantages. Algorithm processes events optimistically in time cycles adapting while simulation in progress. Well suited for modeling communication networks, for large-scale war games, for simulated flights of aircraft, for simulations of computer equipment, for mathematical modeling, for interactive engineering simulations, and for depictions of flows of information.

Steinman, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Nonblocking and orphan free message logging protocols

Currently existing message logging protocols demonstrate a classic pessimistic vs. optimistic tradeoff. We show that the optimistic-pessimistic tradeoff is not inherent to the problem of message logging. We construct a message-logging protocol that has the positive features of both optimistic and pessimistic protocol: our protocol prevents orphans and allows simple failure recovery; however, it requires no blocking in failure-free runs. Furthermore, this protocol does not introduce any additional message overhead as compared to one implemented for a system in which messages may be lost but processes do not crash.

Alvisi, Lorenzo↗
DOE OSTI2022

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home charging for all: Techno-economic and life cycle assessment of multi-unit dwelling electric vehicle charging hubs

Ubiquitous electric vehicle adoption can drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) but will require equitable home charging infrastructure for all residences. Unlike single-family homes, Multi-Unit Dwellings (MUD) currently lack market share and access to nearby charging infrastructure partly due to expensive capital costs for reluctant residential property-owners. Further, this work evaluates the levelized cost of charging (LCOC) for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at MUD community charging hubs through a techno-economic analysis (TEA) that leverages real-world charging data and costs. Three different MUD charging types are investigated for a baseline and optimistic case: 1.9-kW Level 1 (L1), 6.6-kW Level 2 (L2), and 50-kW Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) stations under three different ownership models: resident, utility, and private company. Results demonstrate L1 and L2 chargers to be less expensive than the gasoline equivalent across the United States. Further, utility and private company ownership models, which avoid initial costs for residential property owners, result in a large LCOC premium for L1 and moderate LCOC premium for L2 relative to the resident ownership model. In contrast, DCFC is shown to be expensive for baseline scenarios but economical for optimistic scenarios especially under private company ownership. This work also performs a cradle to grave (C2G) life cycle assessment (LCA) of an average passenger BEV and gasoline conventional vehicle (CV) using yearly (grid mix & vehicle parameters), hourly (grid mix), and state-level (grid mix) resolution. Results show BEVs to have lower GHG emissions (-86% to-10%) than gasoline CVs in the contiguous U.S. Next, the system boundary of the TEA is extended to the total cost of ownership (TCO) of BEVs. The TCO is then coupled with the C2G GHG emissions to calculate the cost of GHG emissions reduction. Ultimately, the cost of GHG emissions reduction from MUD BEVs relative to gasoline CVs is shown to be negative for every scenario except baseline DCFC, meaning MUD BEV charging infrastructure can be a cost-effective endeavor to reduce GHG emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transparency crucial to Paris climate scenarios—Response

King et al. raise important issues, several of which pertain to the broader policy discourse surrounding international climate negotiations and countries’ cli-mate pledges rather than the modeling conducted in our Policy Forum. We agree with King et al. that the updated Paris Agreement pledges could paint an overly optimistic picture of the future, especially if their success depends on postponing deeper reductions until after 2030. To illustrate a less-optimistic future, our Policy Forum includes scenarios showing what would happen if countries continued to implement current policies alone. Importantly, the “Current policy” scenarios in the Policy Forum result in less than a 10% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C this century, whereas the “Updated pledges” scenarios result in at least a 33% chance of achieving the same temperature goal. Additional policy measures could help bridge emission gaps between current policies, updated pledges, and the global emission levels needed to cost-effectively achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals (1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Approach to Dependency Analysis in Human Reliability Analysis: Application in a Stream Generator Tube Rupture Scenario

Dependency analysis in human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method of adjusting the failure probability of a given action by considering the impact of the action preceding it. It plays a role in reasonably accounting for human actions in the context of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs), preventing PSA results from being estimated too optimistically based on the HRA results. Nevertheless, the existing dependency methods present a couple of challenges in that the quantification approaches rarely explain the adjustment of human error probabilities (HEPs). For this reason, the authors’ previous research has pointed out challenges of the existing dependency approaches and conceptually, theoretically proposed a performance shaping factor (PSF)-based dynamic dependency analysis method for HRA in order to complement the existing dependency methods. The current paper explores the latest version of the method and guidance for applying it to a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenario.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Large-scale terrestrial solar cell power generation cost: A preliminary assessment

A cost study was made to assess the potential of the large-scale use of solar cell power for terrestrial applications. The incentive is the attraction of a zero-pollution source of power for wide-scale use. Unlike many other concepts for low-pollution power generation, even thermal pollution is avoided since only the incident solar flux is utilized. To provide a basis for comparison and a perspective for evaluation, the pertinent technology was treated in two categories: current and optimistic. Factors considered were solar cells, array assembly, power conditioning, site preparation, buildings, maintenance, and operation. The capital investment was assumed to be amortized over 30 years. The useful life of the solar cell array was assumed to be 10 years, and the cases of zero and 50-percent performance deg-radation were considered. Land costs, taxes, and profits were not included in this study because it was found too difficult to provide good generalized estimates of these items. On the basis of the factors considered, it is shown that even for optimistic projections of technology, electric power from large-sclae terrestrial use of solar cells is approximately two to three orders of magnitude more costly than current electric power generation from either fossil or nuclear fuel powerplants. For solar cell power generation to be a viable competitor on a cost basis, technological breakthroughs would be required in both solar cell and array fabrication and in site preparation.

Spakowski, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Provably conservative approximations to complex reliability models

Complex models can be the bases for derivation of provably conservative and optimistic reliability models that incorporate a reduced state space and fewer transitions; they accordingly possess solutions that are more cost-effective than those of the original complex models. Design space can thereby be extensively explored without incurring the expense of multiple complex model solutions. A conservative-optimistic pair of derived models produces a band that includes the solution to the complex model. Sensitivity analysis can be performed on this pair of models to determine those parameters of the original model that are most sensitive to change and therefore require further expense in obtaining tighter specifications.

Smotherman, M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

An Euler analysis of a High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) concept at Mach 3

A marching Euler solver, GEM3D, was used to predict the Mach 3 flow field for the wing and body of a High-Speed Civil Transport concept. The analysis focused on a typical cruise lift coefficient of 0.1 at alpha = 3 deg. The Euler solution indicated that embedded shocks formed on the upper surface of the inboard wing panel and at the leading-edge of the outboard wing panel, due to its supersonic leading edge condition. According to a simple static-pressure criterion, the embedded wing upper-surface shocks were sufficiently strong to separate a turbulent boundary layer. Comparison of aerodynamic coefficients from the Euler solver with those from linear theory shows that the linear theory estimates of lift and drag are optimistic, which would lead to optimistic estimates of cruise range.

Pittman, James L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Thermal control systems for low-temperature heat rejection on a lunar base

In this report, Rankine-cycle heat pumps and absorption heat pumps (ammonia-water and lithium bromide-water) have been analyzed and optimized for a lunar base cooling load of 100 kW. For the Rankine cycle, a search of several commonly used commercial refrigerants provided R11 and R717 as possible working fluids. Hence, the Rankine-cycle analysis has been performed for both R11 and R717. Two different configurations were considered for the system--one in which the heat pump is directly connected to the rejection loop and another in which a heat exchanger connects the heat pump to the rejection loop. For a marginal increase in mass, the decoupling of the rejection loop and the radiator from the heat pump provides greater reliability of the system and better control. Hence, the decoupled system is the configuration of choice. The optimal TCS mass for a 100 kW cooling load at 270 K was 5940 kg at a radiator temperature of 362 K. R11 was the working fluid in the heat pump, and R717 was the transport fluid in the rejection loop. Two TCS's based on an absorption-cycle heat pump were considered, one with an ammonia-water mixture and the other with a lithium bromide-water mixture as the working fluid. A complete cycle analysis was performed for these systems. The system components were approximated as heat exchangers with no internal pressure drop for the mass estimate. This simple approach underpredicts the mass of the systems, but is a good 'optimistic' first approximation to the TCS mass in the absence of reliable component mass data. The mass estimates of the two systems reveal that, in spite of this optimistic estimate, the absorption heat pumps are not competitive with the Rankine-cycle heat pumps. Future work at the systems level will involve similar analyses for the Brayton- and Stirling-cycle heat pumps. The analyses will also consider the operation of the pump under partial-load conditions. On the component level, a capillary evaporator will be designed, built, and tested in order to investigate its suitability in lunar base TCS and microgravity two-phase applications.

Sridhar, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Boom Softening and Nacelle Integration on an Arrow-Wing High-Speed Civil Transport Concept

During the last cycle of concept design and wind-tunnel testing, the goal of the low-boom- shaped HSCT concepts (the B-935, the LB-16, and the LB- 1 8) was to meet mission requirements and generate shaped, ground-level pressure signatures with nose shock strengths of 1.0 psf or less. The wind-tunnel tests of these concepts produced results that were partially successful and encouraging although not fully up to expectations. In spite of this, however, these conceptual designs were overly optimistic and not acceptable because: the wing planforms had excessive area; the wing structural aspect ratio was too high; one concept had aft-fuselage rather than under-the-wing engines; and the gross takeoff weights were unrealistically low because of engines that were early, high-tech versions of later, revised, more-realistic engines. The need for reducing the ground-level overpressure shock strengths still existed; a need to be met within more restrictive guidelines of mission performance and gross takeoff weight limitations. Therefore, it was decided that the next conceptual design cycle would focus on decreased nose shock strengths, "boom softening," in the signatures of the Boeing and the McDonnell Douglas baseline concepts rather than low-boom concepts with shaped-signature designs. Overly-optimistic results were not the only problem with these low-sonic-boom concepts. Papers given at the 1994 Sonic-Boom Workshop had demonstrated that the problem of successful nacelle integration on HSCT concepts had only been partially solved. Wind-tunnel pressure signature data, from the HSCT-11B (a.k.a. the LB-18) wind-tunnel model, showed that the Langley HSCT design and analysis method had been successful in reducing the nacelle-volume disturbances in the flow field. This was due.to the engine nacelles mounted behind the wing trailing-edge on the aft fuselage so that no nacelle-wing interference-lift flow-field disturbances were generated. While acceptable from a sonic-boom research point of view, this concept was unacceptable from several practical and structural considerations. Preliminary wind-tunnel pressure signature data from the LB-16 wind-tunnel model, which had the engine nacelles mounted under the wings (the usual location), indicated that the application of the Langley nacelle-integration method had been only partially successful in the reduction of the nacelle-volume with nacelle-wing interference-lift pressure disturbances. So, "boom softening" had to also address the task of successful integration of the engine nacelles, with the engines in the required under-the-wing location. Unless this problem was solved, low-sonic-boom and low-drag modifications to the wing planform, the airfoil shape, and the fuselage longitudinal area distribution could be nullified if the nacelle disturbances added increments to the nose-shock strengths that were removed through component tailoring. In this paper, an arrow-wing boom-softened HSC7 concept which incorporated modifications to a baseline McDonnell Douglas concept is discussed. The analysis of the concept's characteristics will include estimates of weight, center of gravity, takeoff field length, mission range, and predictions of its ground-level sonic-boom pressure signature. Additional modifications which enhanced the softened-boom performance of this concept are also described as well as estimates of the performance penalties induced by these modifications.

Mack, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗