Orbit Uncertainties, Keyholes, and Collision Probabilities
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Volatiles Inventory to the Inner Planets Due to Small Bodies Migration
The concurrent processes of endogeneous and exogeneous origin are assumed to be responsible for the volatile reserves in the terrestrial planets. Volatiles inventory through collisions is rooted in orbital dynamics of small bodies including near-Earth objects (NEOs), short and long-period comets, and trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), the latter probably supplying a large amount of Jupiter crossing objects (JCOs). Our model testifies that even a relatively small portion (approx. 0.001) of JCOs which transit to orbits with aphelia inside Jupiter's orbit (Q<4.7 AU) and reside such orbits during more than 1 Myr may contribute significantly in collisions with the terrestrial planets. The total mass of volatiles delivered to the Earth from the feeding zone of the giant planets could be greater than the mass of the Earth's oceans.
Marov, M. Y.↗
Contribution of explosion and future collision fragments to the orbital debris environment
The time evolution of the near-earth man-made orbital debris environment modeled by numerical simulation is presented in this paper. The model starts with a data base of orbital debris objects which are tracked by the NORAD ground radar system. The current untrackable small objects are assumed to result from explosions and are predicted from data collected from a ground explosion experiment. Future collisions between earth orbiting objects are handled by the Monte Carlo method to simulate the range of collision possibilities that may occur in the real world. The collision fragmentation process between debris objects is calculated using an empirical formula derived from a laboratory spacecraft impact experiment to obtain the number versus size distribution of the newly generated debris population. The evolution of the future space debris environment is compared with the natural meteoroid background for the relative spacecraft penetration hazard.
Su, S.-Y.↗
A Sensitivity Study on the Effectiveness of Active Debris Removal in LEO
The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but may be insufficient to stabilize the environment. The nature of the growth, in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, is further demonstrated by a recent study where no future space launches were conducted in the environment projection simulations. The results indicate that, even with no new launches, the LEO debris population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Therefore, to better limit the growth of future debris population to protect the environment, remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. A removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed to rank objects at the beginning of each projection year. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 2 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed, and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.
Liou, J. C.↗
The Characteristics and Consequences of the Break-up of the Fengyun-1C Spacecraft
The intentional break-up of the Fengyun-1C spacecraft on 11 January 2007 via hypervelocity collision with a ballistic object created the most severe artificial debris cloud in Earth orbit since the beginning of space exploration. More than 900 debris on the order of 10 cm or greater in size have been identified by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The majority of these debris reside in long-lived orbits. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has conducted a thorough examination of the nature of the Fengyun-1C debris cloud, using SSN data for larger debris and special Haystack radar observations for smaller debris. These data have been compared with the NASA standard satellite break-up model for collisions, and the results are presented in this paper. The orbital longevity of the debris have also been evaluated for both small and large debris. The consequent long-term spatial density effects on the low Earth orbit (LEO) regime are then described. Finally, collision probabilities between the Fengyun-1C debris cloud and the resident space object population of 1 January 2007 have been calculated. The potential effect on the growth of the near-Earth satellite population is presented.
Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA/JSC orbital debris study: Debris model
The possibility of the creation of a debris belt around the Earth is discussed. A computer model which describes the near-Earth space environment created by the existing spacecraft and fragments from the associated spent launching vehicle attachments and explosions was developed. The present debris model adopts the mathematical formulations published in a paper by Kessler. Thus, the model uses more rigorous mathematical formulation in calculating the collision rate between two orbiting objects than the one published by Kessler and Cour-Palais (1978). The present model contains many general but detailed analyses on the debris environment such as manipulating and/or sorting the existing debris objects, the physical dimensions of the objects and extrapolating the number density describing to include the unobservable small objects.
Roberts, J. B.↗
Orbital Debris: A Policy Perspective
A viewgraph presentation describing orbital debris from a policy perspective is shown. The contents include: 1) Voyage through near-Earth Space-animation; 2) What is Orbital Debris?; 3) Orbital Debris Detectors and Damage Potential; 4) Hubble Space Telescope; 5) Mir Space Station Solar Array; 6) International Space Station; 7) Space Shuttle; 8) Satellite Explosions; 9) Satellite Collisions; 10) NASA Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines; 11) International Space Station Jettison Policy; 12) Controlled/Uncontrolled Satellite Reentries; 13) Return of Space Objects; 14) Orbital Debris and U.S. National Space Policy; 15) U.S Government Policy Strategy; 16) Bankruptcy of the Iridium Satellite System; 17) Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC); 18) Orbital Debris at the United Nations; 19) Chinese Anti-satellite System; 20) Future Evolution of Satellite Population; and 21) Challenge of Orbital Debris
Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
JSC Orbital Debris Website Description
Purpose: The website provides information about the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at JSC, which is the lead NASA center for orbital debris research. It is recognized world-wide for its leadership in addressing orbital debris issues. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has taken the international lead in conducting measurements of the environment and in developing the technical consensus for adopting mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. Work at the center continues with developing an improved understanding of the orbital debris environment and measures that can be taken to control its growth. Major Contents: Orbital Debris research is divided into the following five broad efforts. Each area of research contains specific information as follows: 1) Modeling - NASA scientists continue to develop and upgrade orbital debris models to describe and characterize the current and future debris environment. Evolutionary and engineering models are described in detail. Downloadable items include a document in PDF format and executable software. 2) Measurements - Measurements of near-Earth orbital debris are accomplished by conducting ground-based and space-based observations of the orbital debris environment. The data from these sources provide validation of the environment models and identify the presence of new sources. Radar, optical and surface examinations are described. External links to related topics are provided. 3) Protection - Orbital debris protection involves conducting hypervelocity impact measurements to assess the risk presented by orbital debris to operating spacecraft and developing new materials and new designs to provide better protection from the environment with less weight penalty. The data from this work provides the link between the environment defined by the models and the risk presented by that environment to operating spacecraft and provides recommendations on design and operations procedures to reduce the risk as required. These data also help in the analysis and interpretation of impact features on returned spacecraft surfaces. 4) Mitigation - Controlling the growth of the orbital debris population is a high priority for NASA, the United States, and the major space-faring nations of the world to preserve near-Earth space for future generations. Mitigation measures can take the form of curtailing or preventing the creation of new debris, designing satellites to withstand impacts by small debris, and implementing operational procedures ranging from utilizing orbital regimes with less debris, adopting specific spacecraft attitudes, and even maneuvering to avoid collisions with debris. Downloadable items include several documents in PDF format and executable software.and 5) Reentry - Because of the increasing number of objects in space, NASA has adopted guidelines and assessment procedures to reduce the number of non-operational spacecraft and spent rocket upper stages orbiting the Earth. One method of postmission disposal is to allow reentry of these spacecraft, either from orbital decay (uncontrolled entry) or with a controlled entry. Orbital decay may be achieved by firing engines to lower the perigee altitude so that atmospheric drag will eventually cause the spacecraft to enter. However, the surviving debris impact footprint cannot be guaranteed to avoid inhabited landmasses. Controlled entry normally occurs by using a larger amount of propellant with a larger propulsion system to drive the spacecraft to enter the atmosphere at a steeper flight path angle. It will then enter at a more precise latitude, longitude, and footprint in a nearly uninhabited impact region, generally located in the ocean.
Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
Orbiting Debris: a Space Environmental Problem. Background Paper
Man-made debris, now circulating in a multitude of orbits about Earth as the result of the exploration and use of the space environment, poses a growing hazard to future space operations. The 6,000 or so debris objects large enough to be cataloged by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network are only a small percentage of the total debris capable of damaging spacecraft. Unless nations reduce the amount of orbital debris they produce, future space activities could suffer loss of capability, destruction of spacecraft, and perhaps even loss of life as a result of collisions between spacecraft and debris. Better understanding of the extent and character of "space junk" will be crucial for planning future near-Earth missions, especially those projects involving humans in space. This OTA background paper summarizes the current state of knowledge about the causes and distribution of orbiting debris, and examines R&D needs for reducing the problem. As this background paper notes, addressing the problem will require the involvement of all nations active in space. The United States has taken the lead to increase international understanding of the issue but much work lies ahead. In undertaking this background paper, OTA sought the contributions of a broad spectrum of knowledgeable individuals and organizations. Some provided information, others reviewed drafts. OTA gratefully acknowledges their contributions of time and intellectual effort. As with all OTA studies, the content of this background paper is the sole responsibility .of the Office of Technology Assessment and does not necessarily represent the views of our advisors or reviewers.
Lionel S. Johns↗
Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal
Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.
Liou, J.-C.↗
The 1986 DA and 1986 EB: M-class asteroids in near-Earth orbits
The Earth-approaching asteroid population is composed of asteroids in orbits with short lifetimes compared with the age of the solar system. These objects which are comprised of Aten, Apollo, and Amor asteroids must be replenished from either cometary or mainbelt asteroid sources since lifetimes against collision with or ejection by a planet are on the order of 10 to 100 million years. The physical study of Earth-approaching asteroids is constrained by the generally long period between favorable apparitions and poorly known orbits. Broadband spectrophotometry on the Johnson UBVR system and the Eight-Color Asteroid Survey system were obtained at Kitt Peak National Observatory and on the Johnson JHK system and at 10 and 20 microns at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility at Mauna Kea Observatory. These observations were used to determine the absolute visual magnitudes and to derive the visual geometric albedos and diameters on the IRAS system. The spectral reflectance properties and geometric albedos of the M-class asteroids are consistent compositions analogous to the iron nickel meteorites or the enstatite-metal assemblages of the enstatite chondrites. The issue of the source(s) of the near-Earth asteroids population was examined by comparing the classifications on the scheme employed by Gradie and Tedesco of 38 such asteroids. Most of the near-Earth objects is indeed the asteroid belt as the observations suggest, then a method for removing extinct nuclei of short period comets must be found since the rate of production of short period comets from the long period comets is relatively large.
Gradie, Jonathan↗
Near-Earth Object (NEO) Hazard Background
The fundamental problem regarding NEO hazards is that the Earth and other planets, as well as their moons, share the solar system with a vast number of small planetary bodies and orbiting debris. Objects of substantial size are typically classified as either comets or asteroids. Although the solar system is quite expansive, the planets and moons (as well as the Sun) are occasionally impacted by these objects. We live in a cosmic shooting gallery where collisions with Earth occur on a regular basis. Because the number of smaller comets and asteroids is believed to be much greater than larger objects, the frequency of impacts is significantly higher. Fortunately, the smaller objects, which are much more numerous, are usually neutralized by the Earth's protective atmosphere. It is estimated that between 1000 and 10,000 tons of debris fall to Earth each year, most of it in the form of dust particles and extremely small meteorites. With no atmosphere, the Moon's surface is continuously impacted with dust and small debris. On November 17 and 18, 1999, during the annual Leonid meteor shower, several lunar surface impacts were observed by amateur astronomers in North America. The Leonids result from the Earth's passage each year through the debris ejected from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. These annual showers provide a periodic reminder of the possibility of a much more consequential cosmic collision, and the heavily cratered lunar surface acts a constant testimony to the impact threat. The impact problem and those planetary bodies that are a threat have been discussed in great depth in a wide range of publications and books, such as The Spaceguard Survey , Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, and Cosmic Catastrophes. This paper gives a brief overview on the background of this problem and address some limitations of ground-based surveys for detection of small and/or faint near-Earth objects.
Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
Collision lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids
We have examined the lifetimes of Near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) by directly computing the collision probabilities with other asteroids and with the terrestrial planets. We compare these to the dynamical lifetimes, and to collisional lifetimes assumed by other workers. We discuss the implications of the differences. The lifetimes of NEA's are important because, along with the statistics of craters on the Earth and Moon, they help us to compute the number of NEA's and the rate at which new NEA's are brought to the vicinity of the Earth. Assuming that the NEA population is in steady-state, the lifetimes determine the flux of new bodies needed to replenish the population. Earlier estimates of the lifetimes ignored (or incompletely accounted for) the differences in the velocities of asteroids as they move in their orbits, so our results differ from (for example) Greenberg and Chapman (1983, Icarus 55, 455) and Wetherill (1988, Icarus 76, 1) by factors of 2 to 10. We have computed the collision rates and relative velocities of NEA's with each other, the main-belt asteroids, and the terrestrial planets, using the corrected method described by Bottke et. al. (1992, GRL, in press). We find that NEA's typically have shorter collisional lifetimes than do main-belt asteroids of the same size, due to their high eccentricities, which typically give them aphelia in the main belt. Consequently, they spend a great deal of time in the main belt, and are moving much slower than the bodies around them, making them 'sitting ducks' for impacts with other asteroids. They cross the paths of many objects, and their typical collision velocities are much higher (10-15 km/s) than the collision velocities (5 km/s) among objects within the main belt. These factors combine to give them substantially shorter lifetimes than had been previously estimated.
Bottke, W. F., Jr.↗
Migration of Trans-Neptunian Objects to a Near-Earth Space
Our estimates of the migration of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) to a near-Earth space are based on the results of investigations of orbital evolution of TNOs and Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs). The orbital evolution of TNOs was considered in many papers. Recently we investigated the evolution for intervals of at least 5-10 Myr of 2500 JCOs under the gravitational influence of all planets, except for Mercury and Pluto (without dissipative factors). In the first series we considered N=2000 orbits near the orbits of 30 real Jupiter-family comets with period P(sub alpha)less than 10 yr, and in the second series we took N=500 orbits close to the orbit of Comet 10P Tempel 2 (alpha=3.1 AU, e=0.53, i=12 deg). We calculated the probabilities of collisions of objects with the terrestrial planets, using orbital elements obtained with a step equal to 500 yr, and then summarized the results for all time intervals and all bodies, obtaining the total probability P(sub sigma) of collisions with a planet and the total time interval T(sub sigma) during which perihelion distance q of bodies was less than a semimajor axis of the planet.
Ipatov, S. I.↗
Accurate Determination of Comet and Asteroid Orbits Leading to Collision With Earth
Movements of the celestial bodies in our solar system inspired Isaac Newton to work out his profound laws of gravitation and motion; with one or two notable exceptions, all of those objects move as Newton said they would. But normally harmonious orbital motion is accompanied by the risk of collision, which can be cataclysmic. The Earth s moon is thought to have been produced by such an event, and we recently witnessed magnificent bombardments of Jupiter by several pieces of what was once Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Other comets or asteroids may have met the Earth with such violence that dinosaurs and other forms of life became extinct; it is this possibility that causes us to ask how the human species might avoid a similar catastrophe, and the answer requires a thorough understanding of orbital motion. The two red square flags with black square centers displayed are internationally recognized as a warning of an impending hurricane. Mariners and coastal residents who know the meaning of this symbol and the signs evident in the sky and ocean can act in advance to try to protect lives and property; someone who is unfamiliar with the warning signs or chooses to ignore them is in much greater jeopardy. Although collisions between Earth and large comets or asteroids occur much less frequently than landfall of a hurricane, it is imperative that we learn to identify the harbingers of such collisions by careful examination of an object s path. An accurate determination of the orbit of a comet or asteroid is necessary in order to know if, when, and where on the Earth s surface a collision will occur. Generally speaking, the longer the warning time, the better the chance of being able to plan and execute action to prevent a collision. The more accurate the determination of an orbit, the less likely such action will be wasted effort or, what is worse, an effort that increases rather than decreases the probability of a collision. Conditions necessary for a collision to occur are discussed, and warning times for long-period comets and near-Earth asteroids are presented.
Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗
Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations
Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay. A new study has been conducted in the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, using higher fidelity models to evaluate the current debris environment. The study assumed no satellites were launched after December 2005. A total of 150 Monte Carlo runs were carried out and analyzed. Each Monte Carlo run simulated the current debris environment and projected it 200 years into the future. The results indicate that the LEO debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Detailed analysis shows that this growth is primarily driven by high collision activities around 900 to 1000 km altitude - the region which has a very high concentration of debris at present. In reality, the satellite population growth in LEO will undoubtedly be worse than this study indicates, since spacecraft and their orbital stages will continue to be launched into space. Postmission disposal of vehicles (e.g., limiting postmission orbital lifetimes to less than 25 years) will help, but will be insufficient to constrain the Earth satellite population. To preserve better the near-Earth environment for future space activities, it might be necessary to remove existing large and massive objects from regions where high collision activities are expected.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
Radar reconnaissance of potentially hazardous asteroids and comets
Groundbased radar is uniquely able to reduce uncertainty in trajectories and physical properties of near-earth objects. Radar can prevent the loss of a newly discovered object caused by the normal decay of orbit knowledge prior to the next optical observing opportunity, can add decades or centuries to the interval over which close Earth approaches can accurately be predicted, can significantly refine collision probability estimates that are based on optical astrometry alone.
asteroids radar↗
Working Group Reports and Presentations: Asteroids
The study and utilization of asteroids will be an economical way to enable exploration of the solar system and extend human presence in space. There are thousands of near-earth objects (NEOs) that we will be able to reach. They offer resources, transportation, and exploration platforms, but also present a potential threat to civilization. Asteroids play a catastrophic role in the history of the Earth. Geological records indicate a regular history of massive impacts, which astronomical observations confirm is likely to continue with potentially devastating consequences. However, study and exploration of near earth asteroids can significantly increase advanced warning of an Earth impact, and potentially lead to the technology necessary to avert such a collision. Efforts to detect and prevent cataclysmic events would tend to foster and likely require international cooperation toward a unified goal of self-preservation. Exploration of asteroids will help us to understand our history and perhaps save our future. Besides the obvious and compelling scientific and security drivers for asteroid research and exploration, there are numerous engineering and industrial applications for near-term asteroid exploration. We have strong evidence that some asteroids are metal rich. Some are water and organic rich. They can be reached with a very low fuel cost compared to other solar system destinations. Once we reach them, there are efficient, simple extraction technologies available that would facilitate utilization. In addition, the costs of returning extracted resources from asteroids will be a fraction of the cost to return similar resources from the moon to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). These raw materials, extracted and shipped at relatively low cost, can be used to manufacture structures, fuel, and products which could be used to foster mankind s further exploration of the solar system. Asteroids also have the potential to offer transport to several destinations in the solar system. In addition to Mars and the Asteroid belt, it is possible to nudge the orbits of NEOs to provide convenient transport to other destinations. Resources to support life on these long voyages may be gathered from the host asteroid itself. As asteroids travel over a wide range of inclinations and ranges, they offer possible platforms to perform scientific investigations. These include unique vantage point observations of the sun and planets. These observations can help us to understand solar activity and space weather. They also afford us an opportunity to see how the earth looks from afar with different perspectives. When we look for planets outside of our solar system, these observations will help us to calibrate our data. Asteroids may also be used as platforms to support very long baseline interferometry with unprecedented angular resolutions.
Lewis, John↗