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Failure Modes of Reduced-Order Orbit Determination Filters and Their Remedies

Ways in which failure can occur in reduced-order, orbit determination filter, error covariance calculations are discussed. In the context of this article, reduced-order filters denote nonoptimal filters which include fixed levels of uncertainty in some parameters of the measurement models or in the spacecraft dynamical model which are not explicitly estimated in the filter equations. Failure is defined as an increase in the orbit determination covariance with the addition of data or as an unreasonable growth in the covariance with time, i.e., nonasymptotic behavior of the covariance. Some simple, known cases of failure are discussed along with their traditional remedies. In addition, more modern remedies are discussed which are currently under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The article first describes the known problems of reduced-order filters when they are employed for orbit determination, and their traditional remedies. Then, having defined these, the relevancy and desirability of the more modern remedies are made apparent.

D J Scheeres

Extensional Flow Convecting a Reactant Undergoing a First Order Homogeneous Reaction and Diffusional Mass Transfer From a Sphere at Low to Intermediate Peclet and Damkohler Numbers

Forced convective diffusion-reaction is considered for viscous axisymmetric extensional convecting velocity in the neighborhood of a sphere. For Peclet numbers in the range 0.1 ≤ Pe ≤ 500 and for Damkohler numbers increasing with increasing Pe but in the overall range 0.02 ≤ Da ≤ 10, average and local Sherwood numbers have been computed. By introducing the eigenfunction expansion c(r,Θ) = Σ c n (r)P n (cosΘ) into the forced convective diffusion equation for the concentration of a chemical species undergoing a first order homogeneous reaction and by using properties of the Legendre functions P n (cosΘ), the variable coefficient PDE can be reduced to a system of N+1 second order ODEs for the radial functions C n (r), n=0,1,2, ... ,N. The adaptive grid algorithm of Pereyra and Lentini can be used to solve the corresponding 2(N+ 1) first order differential equations as a two-point boundary value problem on 1 ≤ r ≤ r •• . Convergence of the expansion for a specific value of N can thus be established and provides "spectral" behavior as well as the full concentration field c(r,Θ).

N Y Shah

Analysis of Developing Laminar Flows in Circular Pipes Using a Higher-Order Finite-Difference Technique

A higher-order finite-difference technique is developed to calculate the developing-flow field of steady incompressible laminar flows in the entrance regions of circular pipes. Navier-Stokes equations governing the motion of such a flow field are solved by using this new finite-difference scheme. This new technique can increase the accuracy of the finite-difference approximation, while also providing the option of using unevenly spaced clustered nodes for computation such that relatively fine grids can be adopted for regions with large velocity gradients. The velocity profile at the entrance of the pipe is assumed to be uniform for the computation. The velocity distribution and the surface pressure drop of the developing flow then are calculated and compared to existing experimental measurements reported in the literature. Computational results obtained are found to be in good agreement with existing experimental correlations and therefore, the reliability of the new technique has been successfully tested.

Herbert J Gladden

Analysis of Gas Absorption to A Thin Liquid Film in the Presence of A Zero-Order Chemical Reaction

The paper presents a detailed theoretical analysis of the process of gas absorption to a thin liquid film adjacent to a horizontal rotating disk. The film is formed by the impingement of a controlled liquid jet at the center of the disk and subsequent radial spreading of liquid along the disk. The chemical reaction between the gas and the liquid film can be expressed as a zero-order homogeneous reaction. The process was modeled by establishing equations for the conservation of mass, momentum, and species concentration and solving them analytically. A scaling analysis was used to determine dominant transport processes. Appropriate boundary conditions were used to solve these equations to develop expressions for the local concentration of gas across the thickness of the film and distributions of film height, bulk concentration, and Sherwood number along the radius of the disk. The partial differential equation for species concentration was solved using the separation of variables technique along with the Duhamel's theorem and the final analytical solution was expressed using confluent hypergeometric functions. Tables for eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are presented for a number of reaction rate constants. A parametric study was performed using Reynolds number, Ekman number, and dimensionless reaction rate as parameters. At all radial locations, Sherwood number increased with Reynolds number (flow rate) as well as Ekman number (rate of rotation). The enhancement of mass transfer due to chemical reaction was found to be small when compared to the case of no reaction (pure absorption), but the enhancement factor was very significant when compared to pure absorption in a stagnant liquid film. The zero-order reaction processes considered in the present investigation included the absorption of oxygen in aqueous alkaline solutions of sodiumdithionite and rhodium complex catalyzed carbonylation of methanol. Present analytical results were compared to previous theoretical results for limiting conditions, and were found to have very good agreement.

S Rajagopalan

Usage-based Lifing of Lithium-Ion Battery with HybridPhysics-Informed Neural Networks

Lithium-ion batteries are commonly used to power unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs).The ability to model and forecast the remaining useful life of these batteries enables UAV reliability assurance. Building accurate models for battery state of charge and state of health based on first principles is challenging due to the complex electrochemistry that governs battery operations and computational complexity required to solve them. Therefore, reduced order models are often used due to their ability to capture the overall battery discharge. Un-fortunately, these simplifications lead to residual discrepancy between model predictions and observed data. In this paper, we present a hybrid modeling approach merging reduced-order models and neural networks. In this approach, while most of the input-output relationship is captured by Nernst and Butler-Volmer equations, data-driven kernels reduce the gap between predictions and observations. We validate our approach using data publicly available through the NASA Prognostics Center of Excellence repository. Results showed that our hybrid battery prognosis model can be successfully calibrated, even with a limited number of observations.

Lithium-ion Battery

Analysis of Surface and Bulk Behavior in Ni-Pd Alloys

The most salient features of the surface structure and bulk behavior of Ni-Pd alloys have been studied using the BFS method for alloys. Large-scale atomistic simulations were performed to investigate surface segregation profiles as a function of temperature, crystal face, and composition. Pd enrichment of the first layer was observed in (111) and (100) surfaces, and enrichment of the top two layers occurred for (110) surfaces. In all cases, the segregation profile shows alternate planes enriched and depleted in Pd. In addition, the phase structure of bulk Ni-Pd alloys as a function of temperature and composition was studied. A weak ordering tendency was observed at low temperatures, which helps explain the compositional oscillations in the segregation profiles. Finally, based on atom-by-atom static energy calculations, a comprehensive explanation for the observed surface and bulk features will be presented in terms of competing chemical and strain energy effects.

Ordering

Thermal Data-driven Model Reduction for Enhanced Battery Health Monitoring

Electric aviation faces a major challenge of avoiding potentially catastrophic consequences of the battery’s thermal runaway while keeping the weight of the battery low. Detection of early warning signals of battery failures requires accurate monitoring of the battery’s health throughout its lifespan. However, identifying the parameters of the battery from field data is notoriously difficult. We investigate this problem within the framework of modeling the temperature dynamics of a Li-ion cell during tests simulating loading in electric aircraft flights. It is found that the parameters of a higher-fidelity physics-based thermal model cannot be identified from the simulated flight data. To resolve this issue, we reduce the higher-fidelity thermal model to a model with fewer parameters. The resulting reduced-order model can predict temperature dynamics accurately and is identifiable throughout the cell’s lifespan which allows using the model’s parameters to monitor the state-of-health of the aging cell and detect anomalies in thermal behavior.

Li ion batteries

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation

The Benard Problem: A Comparison of Finite Difference and Spectral Collocation Eigen Value Solutions

The application of spectral methods, using a Chebyshev collocation scheme, to solve hydrodynamic stability problems is demonstrated on the Benard problem. Implementation of the Chebyshev collocation formulation is described. The performance of the spectral scheme is compared with that of a 2 nd order finite difference scheme. An exact solution to the Marangoni-Benard problem is used to evaluate the performance of both schemes. The error of the spectral scheme is at least seven orders of magnitude smaller than finite difference error for a grid resolution of N = 15 (number of points used). The performance of the spectral formulation far exceeded the performance of the finite difference formulation for this problem. The spectral scheme required only slightly more effort to set up than the 2 nd order finite difference scheme. This suggests that the spectral scheme may actually be faster to implement than higher order finite difference schemes.

J Raymond Lee Skarda

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling

High-Order Methods in NASA’s Next Generation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Tools

The missions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) routinely produce unique requirements and challenges for development and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods. NASA presently embodies four distinct Mission Directorates: Aeronautics Research, Exploration Systems, Science, and Space Operations. These missions generate requirements for systems that operate in a wide variety of environments. They range from the high-speed flight of aerodynamically optimized vehicles operating in the earth’s atmosphere to spacecraft designed for missions that don’t favor aerodynamic optimization, some operating in the atmosphere of planets and planetary moons such as Mars and Venus or Saturn’s moon Titan. Systems supporting these vehicles, such as rocket and jet propulsion, reaction control systems, fluid and thermal transfer systems, etc. can also generate their own unique set of flow phenomena that challenge today’s CFD methodology. Through the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), NASA annually conducts state-of-the-discipline assessments in fifteen distinct engineering disciplines. These assessments are performed by the NASA Technical Fellows that lead Technical Discipline Teams (TDT) of recognized experts in these fifteen areas. In the Aerosciences discipline, three topics have been identified as the top challenges for the discipline: aero-plume interaction prediction, unsteady separated flows, and aerothermodynamic prediction. These challenge areas are defined by the Agency’s high-risk projects and problems on which the NESC is requested to perform independent testing, analysis, and assessments. When viewed as a whole, these tests, analyses, and assessments provide a clear view of the recurring technical challenges facing Agency engineers and researchers and can be used to guide future research and technology development. The present state-of-the-art in the application of CFD at NASA is the use of Reynolds-Averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solvers, primarily executed in a steady-state mode of operation. In isolated cases, Unsteady RANS (URANS) solvers have been employed when steady RANS solutions produce poorly converging or oscillating results or in cases, such as aeroelastic analysis, which require unsteady aerodynamic simulation. For most traditional external and internal aerodynamic flows, structured overset grids or unstructured grids are employed to minimize geometric modeling and grid generation times. Grid adaptation, primarily as a series of coarse-grain intermediate processing steps is also seeing use on particularly complex flow problems and configurations. In the case of aerothermodynamic flows, engineers have been forced to continue to employ structured grid techniques as the present unstructured grid methodology has proven inadequate in the prediction of surface heating. In the area of aero-plume interaction modeling, two-gas, frozen chemistry simulation is generally the state-of-the- art, with some production solvers capable of predicting flows with only a single gas component. Prediction of flows falling into the afore-mentioned top Aerosciences technical challenges have severely stressed the present state-of-the-art in CFD prediction and for some problems, such as unsteady separated flows and aero-plume interaction cases, engineers have begun employing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Hybrid RANS/LES techniques. In some isolated aero-propulsion interaction cases, chemically reacting flow simulations have been applied. These methods are highly evolutionary and engineers have little experience in their application, so they cannot be heavily relied upon in today’s application environment. Therefore, this leads one to muse over which numerical technologies will be included in the CFD tools that will be employed 30 years in the future. This presentation will describe specific technical problems that have stressed NASA’s traditional CFD methods to their breaking point and will link these issues to the Agency’s top Aerosciences technical challenges. The discussion will then shift to the characteristics of future CFD solvers that will be required to attack these challenges and how these characteristics differ from the present state-of-the- art. High-order methods certainly appear to have a place in the development of future CFD tools and some of the physical characteristics of our most challenging problems suggest that high-order methods are the only way to effectively solve them. But there are some relatively severe implementation issues that face these methods, particularly in the area of general applicability and robust operation as an engineering tool. Desired characteristics of next-generation CFD solvers will be discussed and the author’s view of which emerging numerical technologies might be employed to address these attributes will also be presented

David M Schuster

Wild Blue Yonder Propulsion Schemes

This paper will include a discussion of the ORION concept, several gaseous core nuclear rockets, thermonuclear propulsion utilizing superconducting magnets, and finally a lightweight radioisotope power generation system for electric propulsion. With the exception of the latter concept, all of these schemes have much in common. The initial vehicle weights would be very large - on the order of several million pounds. The payload fractions are high - on the order of 25 to 50 percent of the takeoff weight - for near Earth missions. The development problems would be severe, and, correspondingly, the development costs would be extreme - on the order of many billions of dollars. In addition, the launching problems from Earth would be fantastic - with nuclear radiation hazards and political overtones added for good measure. However, the reward for success would be great. One can contemplate large payload fractions propelled on space missions - with thrust-to-weight ratios, at least in some cases, greater than unity and with specific impulses of several thousand seconds. The mission transportation costs would run in terms of dollars per pound of payload with clear opportunities for reasonable manned expeditions across the solar system. This is the carrot that leads the endorsement of such gigantic projects.

John C Evvard

A Machine Learning Framework for Error Compensation in Radiative Transfer Calculations

Radiative heat transfer influences the amount of heat flux transferred to the surface of the hypersonic vehicle, which is essential to evaluate the performance of thermal protection systems. The radiative heat flux is found to be computationally prohibitive while accounting for the variation in spatial, angular, and spectral domains. A new methodology has been recently developed to alleviate the cost of computation in the spectral domain by constructing flow-agnostic reduced-order models (ROMs). The developed spectral ROM databases provide grouping strategies that account for non-equilibrium absorption and emission as well as interaction between disparate species due to spectral overlap in associated radiative processes. However, the developed ROMs need to be optimized for a specific combination of interacting gas species and would need to re-calibrated in case individual species are added/omitted. In this work, we use various machine learning (ML) techniques to approximate the radiative intensities determined by a ROM optimized for a specific gas mixture. The ML model relies on the ROM databases developed for a single species which ignores any spectral overlap. Thus, radiation evaluation starts with a simple summation of radiative intensities predicted using these non-calibrated ROMs for the contributing species. The ML framework then provides a correction to account for the interplay in the frequency, i.e., emission of photons by one species and absorption by another, and yields mixture-specific radiation fields. Once trained on the individual ROM databases, the ML framework offers instantaneous corrections that serves as a time/cost effective alternative to the optimization of ROMs for a specific gas mixture. The ML framework is trained on both the high fidelity and ROM evaluated line of sight (LOS) data from Orion, Stardust, and FIRE II cases to obtain a general purpose correction model for earth re-entry scenarios when radiation contributions from both atomic nitrogen and atomic oxygen are considered. A geometric length scale parameter is used in the training process to account for errors introduced in the ROM databases as a consequence of high optical thickness. The efficacy of the ML framework is underscored through extensive analysis of train and test errors with respect to all the re-entry scenarios. The applicability of such an ML framework was further corroborated by embedding it in a state-of-the-art US3D - NERO system for determining the radiative heat flux transferred to the hypersonic vehicle surface.

Radiation

Mathematical Characterization of Battery Models

The purpose of this document is to demonstrate the use of the Extended Kalman Filter as a tool for battery state estimation and the estimation of battery state of charge. The mathematical details based on the equivalent circuit model are presented followed by an electrochemical engineering model. A simplified first-order model is used to demonstrate the procedure followed by second and third-order models. Next a simplified electrochemistry model is presented along with observer development. State observability is calculated for the simpler equivalent circuit models and the simplified electrochemistry model. An outline of the battery model parameter identification method is presented, and model performance based on experimental and flight data is demonstrated.

Battery

An analysis of digital phase-locked loops

This report focuses on second-order digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs) with uniformly sampled input, an amplitude-insenstive phase extractor and a conventional loop filter.

Thomas, J. B.

Pocket nickel cadmium cell and battery evaluation

The Nickel Cadmium 129-ampere hour cell was tested in order to characterize the cell under controlled conditions. Results of charge characterization and discharge characterization are reported. Ampere hour efficiency, open circuit stand, and cycle life operation results are included. The battery is briefly described.

Lear, J. W.

Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo Calculation of the Austenite and Martensite Phases of NiTi

NiTi is a promising material for smart and active technologies due to its exhibition of the shape memory effect, superelasticity, and biocompatibility. The shape memory effect is tied to the reversible transition between the austenite and martensite phases. A major research direction is to alloy NiTi with Zr, Hf, Pd, Pt, etc., in order to tune the martensitic transition temperature (MTT). Modeling the MTT from first principles is challenging because the lattice dynamics is complicated by anharmonicity and various low-energy structures. Using density functional theory, the energy difference between the austenite and martensite phases of NiTi varies by up to 100 meV/atom depending on the choice of density functional, which is of the same order of the energy difference itself. Consequently, free energy calculations with different functionals can result in estimates of the MTT that vary by several hundred K. Using diffusion quantum Monte Carlo, we calculated the energy difference between the B2 and B19' structures of NiTi to be 70.9 +- 2.5 meV/atom.

Kevin K Ly