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At least 19 records

ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity

The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.

NRAP,NRAP Tools,ORION,Operational Forcasting of In↗

Recent enhancements in the performance of the Orion high-resolution x-ray spectrometers

During the past few years, the Orion high-resolution x-ray spectrometers have been successful tools for measuring x-ray spectra from plasmas generated in the Orion laser facility. Duplicate spectrometers also operate successfully at the Livermore EBIT-I and SuperEBIT electron beam ion traps for measuring x-ray polarization. We have recently implemented very high-quality, optically bonded, spherically bent quartz crystals to remove the structure in the x-ray image that had been observed in earlier measurements. The structure had been caused by focusing defects and limited the accuracy of our measurements. In this work, we present before and after images that show a drastic improvement. We, furthermore, have implemented a spherically bent potassium acid phthalate (KAP) crystal on one of our spectrometers. The KAP crystal was prepared in a similar fashion, and we present measurements of the N Ly-β and Ne Lyβ lines taken in first- and second-order reflections at 600 and 1200 eV, respectively. These measurements confirm that KAP crystals can be produced at a quality suitable for extending the spectral coverage to wavelengths longer than those accessible by different quartz crystals, especially those that cover the astrophysically important lines of iron.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Absolute throughput calibration of multiple spherical crystals for the Orion High-REsolution X-ray spectrometer (OHREX)

We present absolute throughput analysis of several crystals for the Orion High-REsolution X-ray (OHREX) imaging crystal spectrometer using ray tracing and experimental measurements. The OHREX spectrometer is a high-resolution x-ray spectrometer designed to measure spectral line shapes at the Orion laser facility. The spectrometer is fielded with up to two spherical crystals simultaneously covering two independent spectral ranges. Each crystal has a nominal radius of curvature of R = 67.2 cm and is fielded at a nominal Bragg angle of 51.3°. To cover different bands of interest, several different crystals are available, including Ge (111), KAP, and several cuts of quartz, whose resolving power λ/Δλ exceeds 10 000. The calibrated response of the available crystals has previously been reported from measurements at the EBIT-I electron beam ion trap at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Here, we model the absolute throughput of each crystal using ray tracing and verify the results using experimental data for the quartz $(10\bar{1}1)$ crystal.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistics of Wide Pre-main-sequence Binaries in the Orion OB1 Association

Statistics of low-mass pre-main-sequence binaries in the Orion OB1 association with separations ranging from 0."6 to 20" (220 to 7400 au at 370 pc) are studied using images from the VISTA Orion mini survey and astrometry from Gaia. The input sample based on the CVSO catalog contains 1137 stars of K and M spectral types (masses between 0.3 and 0.9 M ⊙ ), 1021 of which are considered to be association members. There are 135 physical binary companions to these stars with mass ratios above ~0.13. The average companion fraction is 0.09 ± 0.01 over 1.2 decades in separation, slightly less than, but still consistent with, the field. We found a difference between the Ori OB1a and OB1b groups, the latter being richer in binaries by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3. No overall dependence of the wide-binary frequency on the observed underlying stellar density is found, although in the Ori OB1a off-cloud population, these binaries seem to avoid dense clusters. The multiplicity rates in Ori OB1 and in sparse regions like Taurus differ significantly, hinting that binaries in the field may originate from a mixture of diverse populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Custom Machine to Convey Radiologically Impacted Cohesive Soils to the Orion ScanSortSM System - 20382

An established method to reduce the volume of material required to be disposed of as radioactive waste is conveyor-based sorting of potentially radiologically impacted soils. With the Orion ScanSortSM system, potentially impacted soils are conveyed beneath radiation detectors and sorted into above and below criteria bins based on the detectors' response. Confident measurements can only be efficiently achieved when the soil column being conveyed has a reasonably consistent geometry. Highly cohesive soils present a very significant challenge as they tend to clump and adhere to the conveyor hopper, strike-off bar, and belt skirting. This causes voids and valleys in the soil column that affect the measurement geometry and reduce the confidence in the measurement. The reduction in confidence necessitates a longer residence time (i.e. reduction in conveyor belt speed and processing rates) or that the soils in highly unfavorable geometries be dispositioned as impacted or segregated for resurvey (should site logistics support that option). These outcomes may increase the volume of material required to be dispositioned as radiological waste and have a negative impact on project cost and schedule. To minimize impact to sorting operations, Wood designed and built a customized Extruder, to optimize the soil column prior to assay. The design was developed and refined to minimize the volume of highly cohesive soils presented in highly unfavorable geometries in the soil column in order to confidently assess and disposition such soils in a high-production environment. The Extruder is a customized 90 cm wide flat conveyor that has an oversized hopper with a pair of motor-driven rollers that force the soils in the hopper through an opening of adjustable height. The soils are extruded through the opening to produce a soil column that is ∼75 cm wide and ∼8-18 cm deep with a design rate of 225 metric tons/hr. The Extruder was recently deployed with the Orion ScanSort{sup SM} System to a site in northeast Ohio. The site has highly cohesive soils that result from the weathering of glacial sediments and consist of clay and clay loam, resulting in poor drainage and high moisture content. The project infrastructure only supported two bins of material (above and below criteria), which necessitated that soils with unfavorable geometries be discharged into the above criteria bin, along with material determined to have been contaminated. The Extruder was extremely successful in producing a stable soil column with favorable geometries for radiological assay. During production, less than 0.5% (by mass) of the soils processed were presented in unsatisfactory geometries requiring disposition as radioactive waste. The Extruder did not get clogged due to the cohesive soils (as is typical with conventional conveyors) and required very little maintenance, again minimizing impacts to sorting operations. The conveyor belt speed was operated at 14 cm/s with a typical belt loading of ∼109 kg/m resulting in a mean process rate of ∼49 metric tons/hr. The process rate was constrained by other project logistics, rather than by the capabilities of the Extruder, which was operated at less than 20% of the maximum design speed (75 cm/s). It is concluded that the Extruder is highly likely to produce a stable highly cohesive soil column suitable for efficient and confident radiological assay in production environments of 250 short tons/hr or more. The Extruder has the capability to drastically reduce the duration and costs of projects with radiologically impacted highly cohesive soils. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Analysis and Support for LANL Technology Testbed: High Altitude Balloon Gondola and Orion Eagle Gamma Ray Detection Instrument

The Analysis and Support for LANL Technology Testbed: High Altitude Balloon Gondola and Orion Eagle Gamma-Ray Detection Instrument is a project where Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), in conjunction with the University of Michigan, are looking into gamma-ray detection in a space-like environment. The purpose of the detection is to work on instruments that can assist with planetary exploration and nuclear deterrents using a High-Altitude Balloon (HAB). For this paper, the main focus is on the mechanical aspects related to the structural analysis of the gondola. It is vital to understand the structural analysis because it helps determine if the gondola can survive the changes in the environment and the different forces or shocks that it will experience when the parachute is deployed and at landing. Additionally, NASA's Balloon Program Office (BPO) has specific requirements to meet to achieve flight certifications. Part of those certifications requires the gondola to simulate different scenarios at specific conditions with various forces applied and orientations. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the calculations of each method and the force applied to get the right results. Once that is done, the information is inputted into the structural analysis modeling system. The system will aid the mechanical team in assessing the conditions of the gondola at each scenario and determine its margin of safety. After the gondola and instrument are certified, the payload will be able to fly. The HAB and payload are launched from NASA's Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility (CSBF) at Fort Sumner, NM. The official flight was on September 26th, 2021.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ORION Code Infrastructure Upgrades

Prior to this update, ORION was capable of processing cases and data that spanned a single UTM zone and assumed that all spatial inputs were given in units of meters. During the 2024 SMART bridge funding period, we completed upgrades to the code that permit general spatial projections, basin-scale datasets, and units.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stellar Rotation of T Tauri Stars in the Orion Star-forming Complex

We present a large-scale study of stellar rotation for T Tauri stars in the Orion star-forming complex. We use the projected rotational velocity ($v\sin (i)$) estimations reported by the APOGEE-2 collaboration as well as individual masses and ages derived from the position of the stars in the HR diagram, considering Gaia-EDR3 parallaxes and photometry plus diverse evolutionary models. We find an empirical trend for $v\sin (i)$ decreasing with age for low-mass stars (0.4M ⊙ < M $\star$ < 1.2M ⊙ ). Our results support the existence of a mechanism linking $v\sin (i)$ to the presence of accreting protoplanetary disks, responsible for regulating stellar rotation on timescales of about 6 Myr, which is the timescale in which most of the T Tauri stars lose their inner disk. Our results provide important constraints to models of rotation in the early phases of evolution of young stars and their disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The 3D Kinematics of the Orion Nebula Cluster: NIRSPEC-AO Radial Velocities of the Core Population

The kinematics and dynamics of stellar and substellar populations within young, still-forming clusters provide valuable information for constraining theories of formation mechanisms. Using Keck II NIRSPEC+AO data, we have measured radial velocities for 56 low-mass sources within 4' of the core of the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC). We also remeasure radial velocities for 172 sources observed with SDSS/APOGEE. These data are combined with proper motions measured using HST ACS/WFPC2/WFC3IR and Keck II NIRC2, creating a sample of 135 sources with all three velocity components. The velocities measured are consistent with a normal distribution in all three components. We measure intrinsic velocity dispersions of (${\sigma }_{{v}_{\alpha }}$, ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\delta }}$, ${\sigma }_{{v}_{r}}$) = (1.64 ± 0.12, 2.03 ± 0.13, ${2.56}_{-0.17}^{+0.16}$) km s –1 . Our computed intrinsic velocity dispersion profiles are consistent with the dynamical equilibrium models from Da Rio et al. (2014) in the tangential direction but not in the line-of-sight direction, possibly indicating that the core of the ONC is not yet virialized, and may require a nonspherical potential to explain the observed velocity dispersion profiles. We also observe a slight elongation along the north–south direction following the filament, which has been well studied in previous literature, and an elongation in the line-of-sight to tangential velocity direction. These 3D kinematics will help in the development of realistic models of the formation and early evolution of massive clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space radiation measurements during the Artemis I lunar mission

Space radiation is a notable hazard for long-duration human spaceflight. Associated risks include cancer, cataracts, degenerative diseases and tissue reactions from large, acute exposures. Space radiation originates from diverse sources, including galactic cosmic rays, trapped-particle (Van Allen) belts5 and solar-particle events. Previous radiation data are from the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle in low-Earth orbit protected by heavy shielding and Earth’s magnetic field and lightly shielded interplanetary robotic probes such as Mars Science Laboratory and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Limited data from the Apollo missions and ground measurements with substantial caveats are also available. Here we report radiation measurements from the heavily shielded Orion spacecraft on the uncrewed Artemis I lunar mission. At differing shielding locations inside the vehicle, a fourfold difference in dose rates was observed during proton-belt passes that are similar to large, reference solar-particle events. Interplanetary cosmic-ray dose equivalent rates in Orion were as much as 60% lower than previous observations. Furthermore, a change in orientation of the spacecraft during the proton-belt transit resulted in a reduction of radiation dose rates of around 50%. These measurements validate the Orion for future crewed exploration and inform future human spaceflight mission design.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) is an open-source toolkit developed as part of the US Department of Energy SMART and NRAP programs. ORION is designed to help both expert and non-expert users understand the seismic hazard at a site. This tool analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection of fluid, and can be used to identify potential mitigation strategies for observed or forecasted seismic activity. ORION is built using Python, and has an optional GUI where users can easily configure model parameters, evaluate temporal and spatial forecasts, and inspect key data (seismicity, fluid injection, pressure models, etc.).

Kroll, Kayla↗

Capability Demonstration of a 3D CdZnTe Detector on a High-Altitude Balloon Flight

In collaboration between the University of Michigan and Los Alamos National Laboratory, a 3D position-sensing CdZnTe (CZT) detector prototype was built and integrated into a high-altitude balloon platform to evaluate its performance in a space-like mixed-radiation environment. The detector prototype, Orion Eagle, was designed to operate in near-vacuum environments without any temperature regulation. Orion Eagle was hand-launched from NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility (CSBF) at Fort Sumner, NM on September 26, 2021, and successfully operated throughout a 9-hour flight, which reached 38.5 km in altitude. The flight met its objectives, successfully detecting atmospheric gamma rays and galactic cosmic rays, and raising the Technical Readiness Level from 4 to 6 for large-volume 3D CZT detector technology for space applications. Ionization tracks produced by charged particles create spatial signatures in the detector that are distinguishable from discrete gamma-ray interactions. Therefore, the 3D position-sensing capabilities using pixelated electrodes on a CZT detector can help enable discrimination of background charged particles from gamma-ray events without an anticoincidence shield. The potential for background rejection capability, ambient-temperature operation, gamma-ray coded-aperture and Compton imaging, and near High Purity Germanium (HPGe) energy resolution motivate the use of large-volume 3D CZT imaging spectrometers in future space missions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Malware Analysis Report for SolarWinds.Orion.Core.BusinessLayer.dll

SolarWinds Orion is a software suite designed to provide “single pane of glass” monitoring of network devices and applications. On December 13 2020, FireEye revealed that SolarWinds Orion was the victim of a supply chain attack and that the SolarWinds signed file SolarWinds.Orion.Core.BusinessLayer.dll contained a backdoor. SolarWinds deployed the back-doored patch to customers beginning in March 2020. FireEye first identified this backdoor and labeled it SUNBURST. The backdoor is composed of roughly 4,000 lines1 of lightly obfuscated .NET within the SolarWinds.Orion.Core.BusinessLayer.OrionImprovementBusinessLayer class of the malicious dll. The backdoor’s capabilities include: the ability to detect and potentially disable antivirus and forensics tools, basic command and control via DNS, and more advanced command and control via HTTP.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

CF + excitation in the interstellar medium

The detection of CF + in interstellar clouds potentially allows astronomers to infer the elemental fluorine abundance and the ionization fraction in ultraviolet-illuminated molecular gas. Because local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions are hardly fulfilled in the interstellar medium (ISM), the accurate determination of the CF + abundance requires one to model its non-LTE excitation via both radiative and collisional processes. Here, we report quantum calculations of rate coefficients for the rotational excitation of CF + in collisions with para- and ortho-H 2 (for temperatures up to 150 K). As an application, we present non-LTE excitation models that reveal population inversion in physical conditions typical of ISM photodissociation regions (PDRs). We successfully applied these models to fit the CF + emission lines previously observed toward the Orion Bar and Horsehead PDRs. The radiative transfer models achieved with these new rate coefficients allow the use of CF + as a powerful probe to study molecular clouds exposed to strong stellar radiation fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying electron temperature distributions from time-integrated x-ray emission spectra

K-shell x-ray emission spectroscopy is a standard tool used to diagnose the plasma conditions created in high-energy-density physics experiments. In the simplest approach, the emissivity-weighted average temperature of the plasma can be extracted by fitting an emission spectrum to a single temperature condition. It is known, however, that a range of plasma conditions can contribute to the measured spectra due to a combination of the evolution of the sample and spatial gradients. In this work, we define a parameterized model of the temperature distribution and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the input parameters, yielding uncertainties in the fit parameters to assess the uniqueness of the inferred temperature distribution. Here we present the analysis of time-integrated S and Fe x-ray spectroscopic data from the Orion laser facility and demonstrate that while fitting each spectral region to a single temperature yields two different temperatures, both spectra can be fit simultaneously with a single temperature distribution. We find that fitting both spectral regions together requires a maximum temperature of $1310^{+90}_{-70}$ eV with significant contributions from temperatures down to 200 eV.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗