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At least 19 records

A Long-Term GOES Satellite Overshooting Cloud Top and Anvil Cloud Climatology Over South America

The modern-era GOES satellite series began in 1994 with the GOES-8 satellite, and was augmented in 2018 with higher spatial resolution and more frequent imaging when GOES-16 became operational. GOES imagery has provided forecasters and researchers new perspectives into cloud top patterns associated with severe convection, and the ability to better forecast convection in regions without adequate ground-based weather radar coverage. While much attention has been given to convection over North America, convection over South America can be equally, if not more, intense and frequent. Recent studies have demonstrated that overshooting cloud tops (OT) and surrounding anvil clouds can be detected within infrared satellite imagery. Relative storm updraft intensity metrics such as the tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, the prominence of an OT relative to its surrounding anvil, and cloud top height can also be derived using automated methods combined with reanalysis data. These automated OT detection and intensity estimation methods have recently been applied to all GOES images collected over South America, in combination with the MERRA-2 reanalysis, from 1995 to 2022 at NASA Langley within a project supported by the NASA Applied Sciences Disasters program. Innovative aggregation methods have merged these products into daily, monthly, annual, and multi-annual composites, with hourly time bins, at ~4 km pixel spacing to enable researchers a new opportunity to study South American convective processes throughout the diurnal cycle. These products have recently become publicly available from NASA. This presentation will overview this new dataset, and novel insights into South American convection depicted by the data.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Overshooting cloud top, variation of tropopause and severe storm formation

The development of severe multicell thunderstorms leading to the touchdown of six tornados near Pampa, TX, on May 19-20, 1982, is characterized in detail on the basis of weather maps, rawinsonde data, and radar summaries, and the results are compared with GOES rapid-scan IR images. The multicell storm cloud is shown to have formed beginning at 1945 GMT at the point of highest horizontal moisture convergence and lowest tropopause height and to have penetrated the tropopause at 2130 GMT, reaching a maximum altitude and a cloud-top black-body temperature 9 C lower than the tropopause temperature at 2245 GMT and collapsing about 20 min, when the firt tornado touched down. The value of the real-time vertical profiles provided by satellite images in predicting which severe storms will produce tornados or other violent phenomena is stressed.

Hung, R. J.↗

Validation of Satellite-Based Objective Overshooting Cloud-Top Detection Methods Using CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar Observations

Two satellite infrared-based overshooting convective cloud-top (OT) detection methods have recently been described in the literature: 1) the 11-mm infrared window channel texture (IRW texture) method, which uses IRW channel brightness temperature (BT) spatial gradients and thresholds, and 2) the water vapor minus IRW BT difference (WV-IRW BTD). While both methods show good performance in published case study examples, it is important to quantitatively validate these methods relative to overshooting top events across the globe. Unfortunately, no overshooting top database currently exists that could be used in such study. This study examines National Aeronautics and Space Administration CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar data to develop an OT detection validation database that is used to evaluate the IRW-texture and WV-IRW BTD OT detection methods. CloudSat data were manually examined over a 1.5-yr period to identify cases in which the cloud top penetrates above the tropopause height defined by a numerical weather prediction model and the surrounding cirrus anvil cloud top, producing 111 confirmed overshooting top events. When applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager proxy data, the IRW-texture (WV-IRW BTD) method offered a 76% (96%) probability of OT detection (POD) and 16% (81%) false-alarm ratio. Case study examples show that WV-IRW BTD.0 K identifies much of the deep convective cloud top, while the IRW-texture method focuses only on regions with a spatial scale near that of commonly observed OTs. The POD decreases by 20% when IRW-texture is applied to current geostationary imager data, highlighting the importance of imager spatial resolution for observing and detecting OT regions.

Bedka, Kristopher M.↗

Severe storm initiation and development from satellite infrared imagery and Rawinsonde data

The geographical distribution of potential temperatures, mixing ratio, and streamlines of flow patterns at 850, 700, and 500 mb heights are used to understand the prestorm convection and the horizontal convergence of moisture. From the analysis of 21 tornadoes the following conclusions are reached: (1) Strong horizontal convergence of moisture appeared at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels in the area 12 hours before the storm formation; (2) An abundantly moist atmosphere below 3 km (700 mb) becomes convectively unstable during the time period between 12 and 24 hours before the initiation of the severe storms; (3) Strong winds veering with height with direction parallel to the movement of a dryline, surface fronts, etc; (4) During a 36-hour period, a tropopause height in the areas of interest is lowest at the time of tornadic cloud formation; (5) A train of gravity waves is detected before and during the cloud formation period. Rapid-scan infrared imagery provides near real-time information on the life cycle of the storm which can be summarized as follows: (1) Enhanced convection produced an overshooting cloud top penetrating above the tropopause, making the mass density of the overshooting cloud much greater than the mass density of the surrounding air; (2) The overshooting cloud top collapsed at the end of the mature stage of the cloud development; (3) The tornado touchdown followed the collapse of the overshooting cloud top.

Hung, R. J.↗

Tornado occurrences related to overshooting cloud-top heights as determined from ATS pictures

A sequence of ATS 3 pictures including the development history of large anvil clouds near Salina, Kansas was enlarged by NASA into 8X negatives which were used to obtain the best quality prints by mixing scan lines in 8 steps to minimize checker-board patterns. These images resulted in the best possible resolution, permitting use to compute the heights of overshooting tops above environmental anvil levels based on cloud shadow relationships along with the techniques of lunar topographic mapping. Of 39 heights computed, 6 were within 15 miles of reported positions of 3 tornadoes. It was found that the tornado proximity tops were mostly less than 5000 ft, with one exception of 7000 ft, suggesting that tornadoes are most likely to occur when overshooting height decreases. In order to simulate surface vortices induced by cloud-scale rotation and updraft fields, a laboratory model was constructed. The model experiment has shown that the rotation or updraft field induces a surface vortex but their combination does prevent the formation of the surface vortex. This research leads to a conclusion that the determination of the cloud-top topography and its time variation is of extreme importance in predicting severe local storms for a period of 0 to 6 hours.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Overshooting thunderstorm cloud top dynamics as approximated by a linear Lagrangian parcel model with analytic exact solutions

Results are presented from a linear Lagrangian entraining parcel model of an overshooting thunderstorm cloud top. The model, which is similar to that of Adler and Mack (1986), gives analytic exact solutions for vertical velocity and temperature by representing mixing with Rayleigh damping instead of nonlinearly. Model results are presented for various combinations of stratospheric lapse rate, drag intensity, and mixing strength. The results are compared to those of Adler and Mack.

Schlesinger, Robert E.↗

Satellite infrared imagery, rawinsonde data, and gravity wave remote sensing of severe convective storms

GOES digital infrared data during the time period between two hours before the touchdown of tornado and the tornado touchdown time were used in this study. Comparison between tornado-associated clouds and non-tornado-associated clouds indicates that the difference between overshooting cloud top temperature and the tropopause temperature, or how much the cloud has penetrated above the tropopause, rather than either the absolute temperature of penetrative cloud top or the height of the top of overshooting turret is significant for the possible formation of severe storms. The penetrative overshooting cloud top collapses about 15 to 30 minutes before the touchdown of tornado. Gravity waves were detected from the severe convective storms.

Hung, R. J.↗

Remote sensing of tornadic storms from geosynchronous satellite infrared digital data

Two cases of GOES digital infrared data were analyzed during the three-hour period immediately prior to the tornado touchdown times. Clouds associated with tornadoes were compared to those without tornadoes using a combination of satellite infrared and rawinsonde data. On the basis of this limited data sample, it appears as if the altitude to which the overshooting cloud top penetrated above the tropopause is the factor which determines whether or not a tornado is formed. In these cases, the overshooting cloud top collapsed about 15 to 30 min before the tornado touchdown.

Hung, R. J.↗

Satellite remote sensing and cloud modeling of St. Anthony, Minnesota storm clouds and dew point depression

Rawinsonde data and geosynchronous satellite imagery were used to investigate the life cycles of St. Anthony, Minnesota's severe convective storms. It is found that the fully developed storm clouds, with overshooting cloud tops penetrating above the tropopause, collapsed about three minutes before the touchdown of the tornadoes. Results indicate that the probability of producing an outbreak of tornadoes causing greater damage increases when there are higher values of potential energy storage per unit area for overshooting cloud tops penetrating the tropopause. It is also found that there is less chance for clouds with a lower moisture content to be outgrown as a storm cloud than clouds with a higher moisture content.

Hung, R. J.↗

Aircraft overflight measurements of midwest severe storms - Implications on geosynchronous satellite interpretations

The instrumented NASA ER-2 aircraft overflew severe convection with IR V features for the first time in the midwest United States during May 1984. Measurements taken by the ER-2 were: visible and IR imagery, high-frequency passive microwave (92, 183 GHz) imagery, nadir lidar backscattered return, and flight altitude information. The May 7 and May 13, 1984 cases are analyzed in detail and the various data sources are combined and compared with GOES imagery. The high resolution aircraft IR imagery shows that thermal couplets are considerably more pronounced than in GOES imagery. In one of the cases (May 7, 1984) the minimum cloud-top IR temperature was located upshear of the overshooting cloud top in the lidar height field. The IR temperatures in the downshear anvils were as much as 5 C warmer than the ambient air temperatures, implying that the upwelling IR radiance comes from about 0.5-1.0 km below the cloud top. The in situ ER-2 measurements of temperature and air velocity 3-4 km above the overshooting tops showed very intense temperature and vertical velocity, perturbations. These perturbations are suggestive of lee waves generated by the overshooting tops or a cold dome above the squall line possibly due to tropopause lifting by the storms.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude UAS

NASA operates two Global Hawk unmanned aircraft systems for Earth Science research projects. In particular, they are used in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) project during 2012, 2013, and 2014 to take measurements from the environment around tropical cyclones, and from directly above tropical cyclones. There is concern that strict adherence to the weather avoidance rules used in 2012 may sacrifice the ability to observe important science targets. We have proposed modifications to these weather avoidance rules that we believe will improve the ability to observe science targets without compromising aircraft safety. The previous guidelines, used in 2012, specified: Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. When flying above FL500: Do not approach reported lightning within 25NM in areas where cloud tops are reported at FL500 or higher. Aircraft should maintain at least 10000 ft vertical separation from reported lightning if cloud tops are below FL500. No over-flight of cumulus tops higher than FL500. No flight into forecast or reported icing conditions. No flight into forecast or reported moderate or severe turbulence Based on past experience with high-altitude flights over tropical cyclones, we have recommended changing this guidance to: Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. Aircraft should maintain at least 5000 ft vertical separation from significant convective cloud tops except: a) When cloud tops above FL500: In the event of reported significant lightning activity or indicators of significant overshooting tops, do not approach within 10-25 nm, depending on pilot discretion and advice from Mission Scientist. b) When cloud tops are below FL500, maintain 10000 ft separation from reported significant lightning or indicators of significant overshooting tops. No flight into forecasted or reported icing conditions. No flight into forecasted or reported moderate or severe turbulence The key changes have to do with overflight of high convective cloud tops and those producing lightning. Experience shows that most tropical oceanic convection (including that in tropical cyclones) is relatively gentle even if the cloud tops are quite high, and can be safely overflown. Exceptions are convective elements producing elevated lightning flash rates (more than just the occasional flash, which would trigger avoidance under the previous rules) and significant overshooting cloud tops.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

Case study of Pampa, Texas, multicell storms

Analysis of the Pampa, TX, multicell storms showed prestorm environmental conditions of a strong horizontal convergence of moisture, mixing ratio 12 g/kg at the 850 mb level in the Texas Panhandle areas and strong winds with shear veering with height. Rapid-scan satellite imagery showed that the clouds penetrated above the tropopause and cloud-top temperatures were at least 4 to 9 C colder than the temperature of the tropopause. This formation and collapsing of high-mass-density overshooting cloud tops above the tropopause is characteristic of tornadoes in the middle portion of the United States.

Hung, R. J.↗

Quantifying Tropopause-Overshooting Volume from Satellite and Radar Observations During the DCOTSS 2021 and 2022 Campaigns

Tropopause-overshooting cloud locations, their volume, and the percentage of anvil cloud occupied by overshooting were quantified from state-of-the-art merged NEXRAD radar and GOES-16/17 satellite products during the 2021 and 2022 Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) study periods. A novel method for defining and tracking large individual storms or storm outbreak objects in space and time was presented, which enabled improved understanding of the complex feature-specific biases among GOES- and GridRad-derived overshooting metrics. GOES overshooting cloud top height was estimated using a stratospheric lapse rate approach informed by GOES visible and IR measurements of shadows from OTs and calibrated based on previously observed maximum GridRad overshooting distribution. Total overshooting volumes derived over CONUS are higher for GOES than GridRad for both years, especially during 2021. Over all storm outbreak objects with observed overshooting, GOES observed higher overshooting percentages while GridRad observed relatively higher overshooting magnitudes. The greater spatial coverage of GOES overshooting, especially noticeable during the mature and dissipation stages of outbreaks due to inherent limitations of infrared satellite data which make it difficult to differentiate cold, high-altitude outflow from true updraft cores, outweighed differences in magnitude to yield higher GOES volume. Individual events, however, revealed that the higher overshooting magnitudes observed by GridRad produce higher overshooting volumes at times. Four-dimensional trajectories of tropopause-overshooting air parcels were compared 5 days after overshooting occurred to depict the envelope of convectively impacted air in the stratosphere. The generally good agreement in parcel plume area initiated from GOES and GridRad overshooting detections suggests that geostationary satellite data can be used to estimate where and how often overshooting impacts stratospheric composition in regions without a ground-based weather radar network to estimate climate impacts of overshooting convection.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Close-up view of 20 March 1976 tornadoes - Sinking cloud tops to suction vortices

The article describes an airborne mission using a Learjet to secure direct data on a family of tornadoes spawned by a rotating thunderstorm in the Missouri-Illinois-Indiana area in March 1976 following an unusually warm February. Weakening of the tornado following increased cloud-scale vertical motion, predicted by a model constructed by Fujita (1972), was confirmed. The aircraft inspected overshooting cloud tops, examined subsidence (holes and depressions) in anvil tops it overflew, and surveyed footprints left by the tornadoes and tornado-blown litter on the ground traversed by the disturbances. Subsidence of cloud tops in advance of violent tornadoes below was confirmed. Isolated and multiple suction vortices left their characteristic ground marks; three scales of motion: tornado cyclone, tornado, and suction vortex, are evidenced by the ground truth.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Remote measurements of the structure of midwest thunderstorm tops and anvils from high altitude aircraft

Results are presented from observations by a visible and IR scanning radiometer, a scanning passive microwave radiometer, and a nadir-viewing cloud lidar system (CLS), carried out from ER-2 overflights for two midwest severe weather events both of which presented following phenomena: (1) a group of severe thunderstorms which later transformed into a linear mesoscale convective system, and (2) a severe thunderstorm which produced large hail. Most of the aircraft in situ and remote measurements pointed to a deep subsidence region and gravity waves downstream of the overshooting cloud tops. The observations do not support a radiative explanation for the warm areas in the anvil.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗