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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding electric vehicle ownership using data fusion and spatial modeling

The global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) for climate sustainability lacks comprehensive insights into the impact of the built environment on EV ownership, especially in varying spatial contexts. This study, focusing on New York State, integrates data fusion techniques across diverse datasets to examine the influence of socioeconomic and built environmental factors on EV ownership. The utilization of spatial regression models reveals consistent coefficient values, highlighting the robustness of the results, with the Spatial Lag model better at capturing spatial autocorrelation. Further, results underscore the significance of charging stations within a 10-mile radius, indicative of a preference for convenient charging options influencing EV ownership decisions. Factors like higher education levels, lower rental populations, and concentrations of older population align with increased EV ownership. Utilizing publicly available data offers a more accessible avenue for understanding EV ownership across regions, complementing traditional survey approaches.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optimization of Component Sizing for a Fuel Cell-Powered Truck to Minimize Ownership Cost

In this study, we consider fuel cell-powered electric trucks (FCETs) as an alternative to conventional medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. FCETs use a battery combined with onboard hydrogen storage for energy storage. The additional battery provides regenerative braking and better fuel economy, but it will also increase the initial cost of the vehicle. Heavier reliance on stored hydrogen might be cheaper initially, but operational costs will be higher because hydrogen is more expensive than electricity. Achieving the right tradeoff between these power and energy choices is necessary to reduce the ownership cost of the vehicle. This paper develops an optimum component sizing algorithm for FCETs. The truck vehicle model was developed in Autonomie, a platform for modelling vehicle energy consumption and performance. The algorithm optimizes component sizes to minimize overall ownership cost, while ensuring that the FCET matches or exceeds the performance and cargo capacity of a conventional vehicle. Class 4 delivery truck and class 8 linehaul trucks are shown as examples. We estimate the ownership cost for various hydrogen costs, powertrain components, ownership periods, and annual vehicle miles travelled.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A study of appliance ownership and electricity consumption determinants in urban Ghanaian households

The residential sector in Ghana accounts for about 40% of aggregate electricity consumption out of which urban centers contribute 70%. The high weighted share of residential electricity use is attributed to high appliance ownership and use, and other household/building factors. The ability to determine how changes in the pattern of these factors influence electricity demand is critical if efforts to reduce consumption are to be effective. Here this study combines a residential electricity consumption survey (RECS) with electricity end-use monitoring of 60 households in Tema city Ghana, to yield the first ever comprehensive investigation of city-scale electricity consumption in urban Ghanaian homes. A multiple linear regression analysis is used to identify the most statistically significant indicators of appliance ownership and household electricity consumption. Results indicate that ownership of air conditioner, freezer, fan, refrigerator and television; and changes in socio-economic and building factors such as energy efficiency awareness and practice; income; household size and floor space show high statistical significance, and collectively explain 57% variance in households’ total electricity consumption. The presence of dependent children increases ownership of television, iron, washing machine and small kitchen appliances. This work provides a solid foundation for developing more tailored energy-saving policy interventions targeted at households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Networked Microgrid Ownership, Data, and Control Implications: Challenges and Open Questions

Microgrid deployments increasingly favor the potential to form networks for greater benefits to resilience, reliability, and energy sovereignty. Both independent and networked micro-grids predominantly have a single-entity-ownership and control, where the associations from ownership to data requirements to control functions to microgrid objectives is linear. The emerging model, however, is cyclical, with bidirectional causal impacts between each of the 4 pillars: there are more complex mixed ownership models across the physical, electrical, data, communications, protection, and control boundaries that impact the data requirements for meeting control functions that help realize the use-cases or objectives. This paper is the first to delineate the pillars for effective ownership and controllability of both independent as well as networked microgrids through the cyclical model, and present barriers to the adoption of such a model.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains

In order to accurately compare the costs of two vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) should consist of all costs related to both purchasing and operating the vehicle. This TCO analysis builds on previous work to provide a comprehensive perspective of all relevant vehicle costs of ownership. In this report, we present what we believe to be the most comprehensive explicit financial analysis of the costs that will be incurred by a vehicle owner. This study considers vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs to formulate a holistic total cost of ownership and operation of multiple different vehicles. For each of these cost parameters that together constitute a comprehensive TCO, extensive literature review and data analysis were performed to find representative values in order to build a holistic TCO for vehicles of all size classes. The light- and heavy-duty vehicles selected for analysis in this report are representative of those that are on the road today and expected to be available in the future. Important additive analyses in this study include systematic analysis of vehicle depreciation, in-depth examination of insurance premium costs, comprehensive maintenance and repair estimates, analysis of all relevant taxes and fees, and considerations of specific costs applicable to commercial vehicles. We find that cars depreciate faster than light trucks and that older plug-in electric vehicles have a greater depreciation rate than newer electric vehicles. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) insurance costs show comparable costs for different powertrains, and lower costs for larger size classes. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) insurance costs vary significantly by vocation. Electric and electrified powertrains have lower maintenance and repair costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains for all vehicle sizes, relative to vehicle price. MHDV maintenance and repair costs depend heavily on vocation and duty cycle. LDV taxes and fees are comparable across powertrain types and size classes, though marginally higher registration fees exist for alternative fuel vehicles. MHDV fees depend on the vocation, weight rating, and state. Many electric tractor trailers would be affected by additional battery weight, reducing the available payload capacity, and this cost can be substantial. Electric vehicle charging for commercial vehicles can be time-consuming; labor rates can cause this cost to dominate TCO. With improved knowledge of each of the cost components, we calculate a lifetime TCO for comparison across vehicles of different types and attributes. For a simulated small sport utility vehicle in 2025, modeled using Autonomie, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has the lowest cost, followed by the conventional ICE vehicle. For MHDV, TCO can be drastically different depending on the vocation. Long-haul vehicles typically have the lowest per-mile costs. Excluding labor costs, the class 4 delivery has a comparable TCO to the day cab. Vocational trucks, refuse trucks, and transit buses have a high per-mile cost of ownership due to maintenance and insurance. For all of these vehicles, the cost of operating the vehicle is heavily weighted by the labor of the driver, followed by the fuel costs. While the HEV begins as the lowest cost powertrain for passenger vehicles, fuel cells are forecast to reach cost parity by 2030 when hydrogen prices reach $\$ 5$/kg while battery electric vehicles (BEV) reach cost parity by 2035 at a battery cost of $\$ 98$ per usable kWh of capacity, with these two technologies being the lowest cost in 2050. For the class 8 day cab tractor, the HEV and ICE vehicle begin as the lowest cost powertrains, and the 250-mile BEV reduces in cost from the most expensive to the least expensive by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of Uber and Lyft on vehicle ownership, fuel economy, and transit across U.S. cities

We estimate the effects of transportation network companies (TNCs) Uber and Lyft on vehicle ownership, fleet average fuel economy, and transit use in U.S. urban areas using a set of difference-in-difference propensity score-weighted regression models that exploit staggered market entry across the U.S. from 2011 to 2017. We find evidence that TNC entry into urban areas causes an average 0.7% increase in vehicle registrations with significant heterogeneity in these effects across urban areas: TNC entry produces larger vehicle ownership increases in urban areas with higher initial ownership (car-dependent cities) and in urban areas with lower population growth (where TNC-induced vehicle adoption outpaces population growth). We also find no statistically significant average effect of TNC entry on fuel economy or transit use but find evidence of heterogeneity in these effects across urban areas, including larger transit ridership reductions after TNC entry in areas with higher income and more childless households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-term patterns of post-fire harvest diverge among ownerships in the Pacific West, U.S.A.

Abstract Post-fire harvest (PFH) is a forest management practice designed to salvage value from burned timber, mitigate safety hazards from dead trees, reduce long-term fuels, and prepare sites for replanting. Despite public controversy and extensive ecological research, little is known about how much PFH occurs on private and public lands in the U.S. Pacific West, or how practices changed with shifting forest policy and increasing area burned over the last three decades. We mapped PFH across 2.2M burned hectares in California, Oregon, and Washington between 1986-2017 and used time series intervention analysis to compare trends in area, rate (% of burned area harvested), and mean patch size between private (0.5M ha) and federal (1.6M ha) forest land and across a gradient of burn severity. Harvest rates varied by ownership (4.9% federal, 18.6% private, 8.0% overall), and practices evolved and diverged over the study period. PFH area and rate declined across all ownerships in the mid-1990s during a period of reduced fire activity. As area burned increased between the early 2000s and late 2010s, PFH area rebounded and surpassed late-1980s levels, while rates remained relatively low. On federal lands, PFH practices shifted in the early-to-mid 1990s towards lower rates (10.3% to 3.8%) and smaller patches (6.0 to 3.3 ha), following policy changes and increased litigation. PFH rates on federal lands decreased at all levels of burn severity, with the largest decreases (6.2% to 1.2%) in forests with low tree mortality (i.e. fire refugia). Conversely, private PFH rates and mean patch sizes more than doubled in forests burned at very low-to-moderate severity. Our results highlight how PFH practices have shifted with policy, socio-economic pressure, and increasing area burned over 31 years in the Pacific West. A similar area of post-fire harvest is now dispersed over larger fires, with practices diverging substantially between ownerships.

Zuspan, Aaron (ORCID:0000000315833710)↗
DOE OSTI2024

T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) Open Source [SWR-21-54]

T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership), is open source software for modeling total cost of ownership for commercial vehicles with advanced powertrains. T3CO is a modeling framework for determining geospatially and temporally optimized total cost of ownership (TCO) for vehicle powertrain technologies. T3CO runs NREL's FASTSim™ software for a representative set of operating conditions to minimize TCO based on vehicle parameters that affect purchase and operating costs (e.g., fuel/electricity consumption, asset depreciation, opportunity costs associated with charging time) while simultaneously ensuring that firm performance constraints (e.g. zero-to-sixty time, gradeability) are satisfied. T3CO will enable the user to control which powertrain parameters are used in optimizing TCO, and these parameters will be modified by a multi-objective optimization (MOO) algorithm to identify a Pareto-optimal solution set. The optimization algorithm will be modular so that users can choose from many different MOO options or insert their own user-defined optimization tool. NREL T3CO Homepage: https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/t3co.html PyPI package: https://pypi.org/project/t3co/

Lustbader, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the current perceived cost of ownership for buses and trucks in China

Decarbonizing commercial vehicles, including buses, trucks, and special purpose vehicles, is essential for China to achieve its carbon neutrality target by 2060. However, understanding the adoption barriers of alternative fuel technologies for commercial vehicles has largely been limited to the total cost of ownership approach that mainly considers tangible costs. Additionally, this study proposes a perceived cost of ownership (PCO) model, which monetizes both tangible and implicit costs, including charging annoyance for buses and trucks by size and classification under different use scenarios. In the case study for China's current bus and truck market, the PCO of alternative fuel technologies, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are 27%–129% and 31%–86% higher than the most economically competitive powertrains – the compressed natural/liquefied petroleum gas technology and hybrid electric technology. BEVs could be cost-effective in the mini/midsize bus segment or in the daily short-distance driving scenario, and FCEVs could firstly be deployed in cities with a low hydrogen price. Though the implicit costs caused by range anxiety and charging annoyance account for at least 27% of BEV's PCO, making BEV uncompetitive, the battery swapping technique could reduce the implicit cost and overall cash outflow for BEV owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A method for determining optimal electric range by considering electric vehicle lightweighting on perceived ownership cost

The limited driving range due to high costs and low energy densities of batteries constraints the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market growth. Lightweighting in theory can reduce energy consumption rate and extend the driving range. The knowledge gap is to quantitatively link the cost-effectiveness of light-weight technologies with range extension and consumer acceptance of BEVs. In this study, a physics-based energy consumption model of BEVs is constructed and associated with a statistics-based model on the basis of travel surveys. A perceived cost of ownership (PCO) is then developed by adding intangible costs to traditional total cost of ownership models. We estimate, at the disaggregate vehicle model and driver level and the aggregate market level, 1) the extended range due to lightweighting for a given battery size; and 2) the optimal electric range based on lightweighting decisions. The cost-effectiveness of lightweighting for BEV range extension is found to vary with income-dependent daily range limitation value, driving patterns and lightweighting technology costs. In general, adopting lightweighting in BEVs is more cost-effective for consumers with higher daily limitation value, as well as for those with higher driving intensity or suitable daily driving patterns. When the lightweighting involves a higher vehicle production cost, less lightweighting could reduce the overall PCO for BEV owners. 4 of the selected top ten BEV models are found to benefit from additional 2.09%–4.45% lightweighting. Finally, the method built in this study can guide automakers in planning R&D investments in battery and lightweighting technologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

How do perceptions of safety and car ownership importance affect autonomous vehicle adoption?

In this study, we explicitly modeled how individuals' perceptions of automated vehicle (AV) safety and the importance they place on car ownership affect mode choices involving conventional and automated vehicles in the context of privately owned cars and ridehailing services. We adopted psychometric questions to capture these two latent variables and designed a stated preference survey based on the participants' actual travel patterns. Then, we quantified the impact of these latent variables on mode choices using an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model. We found that both latent variables have a statistically significant effect on mode choices. The results show that car ownership importance has the most potent effect on privately owned cars (conventional car and self-driving car), followed by driverless ridehailing and conventional ridehailing. We also found that changes in safety perception are equivalent to sizable changes in price. In addition, we further investigated the impact of improvements in safety perception through four scenarios. The scenario testing results show that as the distribution of perceived safety is compressed toward positive safety perception, the market share of AVs spikes and dominates regular cars. Our results demonstrate that based on our respondents' current understanding of AVs, even if AV prices were comparable to regular cars, we cannot expect widespread use of AVs. However, improvements in AVs' safety and, consequently, consumer safety perception can considerably expand AVs' market share, and may offset the high cost of using the technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimation of vehicle home parking availability in China and quantification of its potential impacts on plug-in electric vehicle ownership cost

China has become the world's largest plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. One major barrier to greater consumer acceptance of PEVs is the lack of home parking spaces for charging outlets. This paper developed a methodology to estimate the residential parking ratios (parking spaces vs household numbers) and project the residential community-weighted parking availabilities (home parking availabilities) in China, by area and by province, through data mining from several major real estate trading network platforms. The results show that the home parking availabilities from 2015 to 2050 vary by geographic areas and building life expectancy. A method was developed to quantify the shadow values of home parking impacting on PEV ownership costs and combined with Monte Carlo simulation to address estimation uncertainty. Depending on the PEV type and all-electric range, the value of home parking space to a PEV owner, measured by the reduced vehicle ownership cost, ranges from $2399 USD to 10,802 USD. Finally, the total incremental shadow value, relative to the 2015 situation, of the home parking availability for PEV owners increases over time due to both improvement in home parking availability and increase in the PEV population, and is estimated to reach over 2.51 billion USD by 2025 (U.S. dollars in 2015 level).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vehicle Residual Value Analysis by Powertrain Type and Impacts on Total Cost of Ownership

Vehicle depreciation is a key factor in determining the total cost of vehicle ownership and consumer purchase behavior. This report examines how light-duty-vehicle residual values have evolved over time for conventional and advanced vehicle technologies, accounting for important factors such as market segment, size class, and country of assembly. Although plug-in vehicles have historically depreciated faster than conventional vehicles, advancements in electric vehicle technology have led to plug-in vehicles exhibiting depreciation curves similar to those of conventional vehicles. This report compares two methods for determining depreciation trends (snapshot method and time-series method) in order to identify potential impacts on calculating vehicle total cost of ownership given differing data availability.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Finance and Ownership Options

Communities facing specific solar project development opportunities or proactively planning their solar development strategies will need to have a basic understanding of solar financing and ownership options. How solar is financed and owned has large implications on how the solar project impacts local economic benefits, risk, and capital needs. This fact sheet provides a brief introduction to these considerations for local officials and community constituents to familiarize them with how local benefits and risks contrast across the basic ownership structures available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Networked Microgrid Energy Management Considering Ownership and Control Structures: A Comparison

With the growing deployment of microgrids, networked microgrids have emerged for their additional advantages of economy, reliability and resilience by coordinating the operation of multiple microgrids. As microgrids are operated with different ownership, objectives and functionalities, the formed networked microgrids show characteristics of mixed ownership, inconsistent objectives and various functionalities. To enable the coordinated operation of networked microgrids, three control structures, i.e., centralized, distributed and decentralized, have been constructed in the literature. However, the data sharing enabling these different paradigms and the resulted value propositions are not well defined, leading to poor resource management and resilience, etc. To solve this issue, a complete comparison of networked microgrid energy management under centralized, distributed and decentralized structures are performed. As a novel contribution, the required minimum data exchange of networked microgrid energy management under three control structures are identified, respectively. The value propositions are calculated and compared against each other by the results of case studies.

control structures↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vehicle Residual Value Analysis by Powertrain Type and Impacts on Total Cost of Ownership

Vehicle depreciation is a key factor in determining the total cost of vehicle ownership and consumer purchase behavior. This report examines how light-duty-vehicle residual values have evolved over time for conventional and advanced vehicle technologies, accounting for important factors such as market segment, size class, and country of assembly. Advancements in electric vehicle technology have led to plug-in vehicles exhibiting depreciation curves similar to those of conventional vehicles. This report compares two methods for determining depreciation trends (snapshot method and time-series method) in order to identify potential impacts on calculating vehicle total cost of ownership given differing data availability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗