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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.

Antarctic climate change↗
NASA NTRS1993

Quasi-decadal variability of the stratosphere: Influence of long-term solar ultraviolet variations

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to investigate the existence of upper-stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind responses to long-term (solar cycle) changes in solar ultraviolet radiation using 11.5 years of reprocessed Nimbus-7 Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) data and 12.4 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data. A positive solar cycle variation of independently measured ozone and temperature occurs with maximum amplitude near the low-latitude stratopause. The seasonal solar regression coefficients near 1 mb for both ozone and temperature occur at low latitudes supporting a role for photochemical and radiative forcing in their origin. Zonal wind perturbations that correlate with long-term solar ultraviolet variations are a strong function of season and pressure level. Above approximately 2 mbar, the largest solar-correlated zonal wind enhancements occur at middle winter latitudes near the time of winter solstice in both hemispheres. The Northern Hemisphere December enhancement at 1 mb was especially large, 23 +/- 9 m/s from solar minimum to maximum during the last solar cycle. The derived ozone, temperature, and zonal wind increases with increasing solar ultraviolet flux near the stratopause are larger than predicted by models that consider primarily photochemical and radiative processes. The higher ozone and temperature response amplitudes at low latitudes may be due to modified ozone transport and adiabatic temperature changes induced by the dynamical response. If the midlatitude winter solstice wind enhancements are solar induced, their high amplitudes require a positive feedback due to wave-mean flow interaction such that the planetary wave drag on the flow is reduced under solar maximum conditions.

Hood, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sixteenth International Laser Radar Conference, part 2

Given here are extended abstracts of papers presented at the 16th International Laser Radar Conference, held in Cambridge, Massachusetts, July 20-24, 1992. Topics discussed include the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic dust laser observations, global change, ozone measurements, Earth mesospheric measurements, wind measurements, imaging, ranging, water vapor measurements, and laser devices and technology.

Mccormick, M. Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗
NASA NTRS2009

On the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on Changes in the Stratospheric Mean Age

A common feature of stratospheric simulations of the past or future is an increase in tropical upwelling and a decrease in mean age. Possible causes or these changes include (1) increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), (2) the direct radiative effect of increases in WMGHGs, and (3) changes in ozone. Here we examine a suite of simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to isolate the relative role of these three factors. Our analysis indicates that all three factors cause changes in the mean age, but the relative impact of each factor depends on the time period analyzed. Over the past 30-40 years ozone depletion is the major factor causing the decrease in mean age, with negligible changes due to direct radiative impact of WMGHG's. However, ozone is predicted to recover back to 1970 levels during the next 50-60 years, and this causes an increase in the mean age, whereas the continued increase in SSTs from increased levels of WMGHGs and the direct radiative impact of WMGHGs will still cause a decrease in the mean age. The net impact of these factors will still result in a decreasing mean age although the rate will be smaller than that of the past. The decreases in mean age are primarily caused by increases in upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The increased upwelling from both increased tropical SSTs and polar ozone loss appears to be related to changes in zonal winds and increases in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. The different contributions of changes in SSTs, WMGHGs, and ozone to the circulation of the stratosphere may help explain the large spread in the rate of change of tropical upwelling seen in previous studies.

Oman, Luke↗
NASA NTRS2013

Interactive Ozone and Methane Chemistry in GISS-E2 Historical and Future Climate Simulations

The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the largescale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF) calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016W/sq. m. Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18W/ sq. m higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in a slightly stronger response per unit forcing during later decades. Tropical precipitation shifts south during boreal summer from 1850 to 1970, but then shifts northward from 1970 to 2000, following upper tropospheric temperature gradients more strongly than those at the surface.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stratospheric ozone variations in the equatorial region as seen in Stratiospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment data

An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric mode and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.

Shiotani, Masato↗
NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Solar Proton Events on the Middle Atmosphere

Solar proton events (SPEs) can result in increases in both HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOx (N, NO, NO2) constituents in the polar middle atmosphere. Decreases in mesospheric and upper stratospheric ozone caused by HOx constituents produced by SPEs have been observed during several events, however, ozone levels generally recover within a few hours after the end of these events because of the short lifetime of the HOx species. The NOx species feed into the more inclusive odd nitrogen family, NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HNO4, ClONO2), over a period of hours to weeks. In low sun and lower altitude conditions, the NOy family lasts several months or more in the stratosphere causing prolonged ozone changes over these longer periods. Observations of mesospheric winds during and after SPEs have also indicated some variations as a result of these atmospheric perturbations. An overview of the influence of SPEs on the polar neutral middle atmosphere will be presented in this paper.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Ozone Increase in the Antarctic Summer Stratosphere: A Dynamical Response to the Ozone Hole

Profiles of ozone concentration retrieved from the SBUV series of satellites show an increase between 1979 and 1997 in the summertime Antarctic middle stratosphere (approx. 25-10 hPa). Data over the South Pole from ozone sondes confirm the increase. A similar ozone increase is produced in a chemistry climate model that allows feedback between constituent changes and the stratospheric circulation through radiative heating. A simulation that excludes the radiative coupling between predicted ozone and the circulation does not capture this ozone increase. We show that the ozone increase in our model simulations is caused by a dynamical feedback in response to the changes in the stratospheric wind fields forced by the radiative perturbation associated with the Antarctic ozone hole.

Stolarski, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observational evidence and dynamical interpretation of the total ozone variations in the equatorial region

The total ozone amount is sensitive to the general circulation changes in the lower stratosphere due to the photochemically inactive nature of ozone there. In the equatorial region, such circulation changes arise from the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the stratospheric zonal wind and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the first half of this study we present observational results of the long-term variations in the equatorial ozone field using the 11 year Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, by paying special attention to the longitudinal structure. In the latter half we try to understand quantitatively these variations by using a simple mechanistic relationship. We hypothesis that the ozone modulating processes are attributable to two dynamical effects, the advection effect and tropopause effect, owing to the strong vertical stratification of ozone existing just above the tropopause. The advection effect comes from the vertical motion which maintains the temperature structure, compensating for the radiative damping. The tropopause effect is associated with the altitude change of the tropopause. The total ozone variations in the tropics is discussed in terms of these two dynamical processes with the aid of mechanistic equations combined with the wind and sea surface temperature (SST) observations. The interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes are beyond the scope of this study. Photochemical effects are also neglected. Details of this study are given by Shiotani (1992) and Hasebe (1992).

Shiotani, Masato↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in atmospheric ozone

Examination of the relationship between tropical stratosphere zonal wind and ozone indicate a variable response in latitude with Northern Hemisphere tropics and polar regions and Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes showing the strongest response with relatively weaker response at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere tropics. In tropical regions, the west winds and ozone maxima are in phase while at higher latitudes, a more nearly out-of-phase relationship prevails. At subtropical and middle latitudes, the QBO in ozone does not appear to change phases with altitude. These features are suggestive of an interaction between the tropical zonal winds and poleward transport of horizontal eddies in conjunction with the annual poleward transport of ozone.

Oltmans, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two Versions of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

In mid-winter, winds circle the globe at speeds greater than 200 km/hr (approximately 130mph) in the middle atmosphere. This strong jet bounds the region known as the polar vortex. The presence of the Antarctic polar vortex is a key ingredient in the formation of the 'ozone hole', because the air inside the vortex is cold and isolated from lower latitudes, creating ideal conditions for large-scale chemical ozone depletion. Many atmospheric models are not able to reproduce observed winds in the middle atmosphere. Specifically, the polar vortices tend to break down too late and peak wind speeds are higher than observed. Hurwitz et al. find that the delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex is due to weaker-than-observed wave driving from the lower atmosphere during the October-November period. The delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex changes the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere, which biases the amount of chemical ozone depletion that can occur in late winter and spring. Also, the extended lifetime of the polar vortex strengthens the 'overturning' circulation cell in the middle atmosphere, changing the amount of ozone, methane and other chemical species that is transported from low to high latitudes. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the atmospheric temperature structure and resulting wind structure are expected to change. Clearly, if models cannot duplicate the observed late 20th century high-latitude winds, their ability to simulate the polar vortices in future must be poor. Understanding model weaknesses and improving the modeled polar vortices will be necessary for accurate predictions of ozone recovery in the coming century.

Hurwitz, M.M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Sensitivity studies and a simple ozone perturbation experiment with a truncated two-dimensional model of the stratosphere

The 1-1/2-D model of Holton (1986), which is actually a highly truncated two-dimensional model, describes latitudinal variations of tracer mixing ratios in terms of their projections onto second-order Legendre polynomials. The present study extends the work of Holton by including tracers with photochemical production in the stratosphere (O3 and NOy). It also includes latitudinal variations in the photochemical sources and sinks, improving slightly the calculated global mean profiles for the long-lived tracers studied by Holton and improving substantially the latitudinal behavior of ozone. Sensitivity tests of the dynamical parameters in the model are performed, showing that the response of the model to changes in vertical residual meridional winds and horizontal diffusion coefficients is similar to that of a full two-dimensional model. A simple ozone perturbation experiment shows the model's ability to reproduce large-scale latitudinal variations in total ozone column depletions as well as ozone changes in the chemically controlled upper stratosphere.

Stordal, Frode↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual Variability of Ozone and Ultraviolet Exposure

Annual zonal averages of ozone amounts from Nimbus-7/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) (1979 to 1992) are used to estimate the interannual variability of ozone and UVB (290 - 315 nm) irradiance between plus or minus 60 deg. latitude. Clear-sky interannual ozone and UVB changes are mainly caused by the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds, and can amount to plus or minus 15% at 300 nm and plus or minus 5% at 310 nm (or erythemal irradiance) at the equator and at middle latitudes. Near the equator, the interannual variability of ozone amounts and UV irradiance caused by the combination of the 2.3 year QBO and annual cycles implies that there is about a 5-year periodicity in UVB variability. At higher latitudes, the appearance of the interannual UVB maximum is predicted by the QBO, but without the regular periodicity. The 5-year periodic QBO effects on UVB irradiance are larger than the currently evaluated long-term changes caused by the decrease in ozone amounts.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivity Studies for Assimilated Ozone Profiles

An ozone data assimilation system at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) produces three-dimensional global ozone fields. They are obtained by assimilating ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line parameterized chemistry and transport model. In this talk we focus on the quality of lower stratospheric assimilated ozone profiles. Ozone in the lower stratosphere plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the lower stratosphere are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. We investigate the sensitivity of assimilated ozone profiles to changes in a variety of system inputs: TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, forecast and observations error covariance models, inclusion or omission of a parameterized chemistry model, and different versions of DAO assimilated wind fields used to drive the transport model. Comparisons of assimilated ozone fields with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS1981

Photochemical processes induced by a major warming of the upper atmosphere - Variations in mesospheric trace constituents

The temperature rise and enhanced winds during an upper atmospheric warming cause substantial changes in the high level ozone profile of the sunlit winter hemisphere. Calculations based on a photochemical model, using temperatures measured at Fort Churchill during a major warming, predict a factor of 2 variation in the ozone number density near 60 km over a time period of approximately 3 weeks. This temporal variability at a fixed location results from the planetary wave structure of the temperature field and reflects a similar longitudinal behavior at a given time. The ozone number density at fixed altitude is a maximum when the temperature is greatest at and below this level. This is due primarily to thermal expansion of the atmosphere which results in a large increase in pressure at constant altitude. However, chemical activity during a warming decreases the mesospheric ozone mixing ratio at fixed pressure. The ozone mixing ratio at constant pressure during the peak of the event studied is near 75% of its unperturbed value. The predicted variability of ozone in longitude and time demonstrates the need for hemispheric scale information on trace gas abundances, temperature, and winds in order to delineate adequately the response of upper atmospheric composition to a major perturbation.

Frederick, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Role of Lidars in Global Change Research

Recent research has solidified a view of the Earth as a global scale interactive system with complex chemical, physical, biological, and dynamical processes that link the ocean, atmosphere, land, and marine terrestrial living organisms. An important aspect of Earth System Science studies in the future is the need to observe simultaneously the physical, chemical, biological, and dynamical processes involved in highly coupled phenomena such as those mentioned. Lidars operating from the surface, aircraft, and satellites provide a powerful observational technique to study the processes and observe trends important to global change. Lidar observations have already played important roles in helping understand processes controlling stratospheric ozone and aerosols, tropospheric clouds, water vapor, ozone, gaseous pollutants, and aerosols, and winds and temperatures throughout the atmosphere. In this paper the author reviews the science of global change and highlights the potential roles for lidar in studying the Earth system.

Prinn, Ronald G.↗