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DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data associated with Quaternary Research manuscript Latest Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate reconstruction for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA

The data here are associated with Quaternary Research manuscript Latest Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate reconstruction for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA and include data associated with cosmogenic exposure and depth profile dating as well as glacier-climate numerical modeling. Reconstructing Pleistocene glaciation timing and extent is vital for understanding paleoclimate. While late Pleistocene glaciation has been studied extensively in western North American mountain ranges, the glacial history of the western Elk Range in Colorado remains understudied, particularly in the East River watershed, a site of intense scientific focus. Here we use cosmogenic nuclide exposure and depth–profile dating methods to determine the timing of glaciation in the East River watershed. We use glacier modeling to reconstruct paleoglacier extents and quantify past climate conditions. Our findings indicate that the East River glacier retreated from its maximum position approximately 17–18 ka, moving to recessional positions between 13–15 ka, before experiencing more substantial retreat to high-elevation cirques around 12.9 ka. Glacier modeling suggests that the maximum ice extents at 17–18 ka could have been sustained by temperature depressions of approximately −6.5°C compared to modern conditions, assuming consistent precipitation. Additionally, the ice position at 13–15 ka could have been supported by temperature depressions of around −4.0°C. These results offer insights into the deglaciation timeline in the East River watershed and broader western Elk Range as well as paleoclimate conditions during the late Pleistocene, which may aid future research on critical zone evolution in the East River watershed.The data files include: 1. Table 1 In situ-produced 10Be sample data (.pdf, .csv, .xlsx)2. Table 2 In situ-produced 10Be exposure age results (.pdf, .csv, .xlsx)3. S1_A CRONUS calculator input assuming no erosion (.csv)4. S1_B CRONUS calculator input assuming erosion (.csv)5. S1_C CRONUS calculator results and comparison (.csv)6. S2_A In situ-produced 10Be sample data for depth profile (.csv)7. S2_B In situ-produced 10Be depth profile model input (.csv)8. S2_C In situ-produced 10Be depth profile model results (.csv)9. S3 Monthly cloudiness, rH, and windspeed data used in glacier climate model (.csv)10. S4 Glacier climate model results (.csv)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Computer simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Latest Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate reconstruction for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA

Reconstructing Pleistocene glaciation timing and extent is vital for understanding paleoclimate. Whereas late Pleistocene glaciation has been studied extensively in western North American mountain ranges, the glacial history of the western Elk Range in Colorado remains understudied, particularly in the East River watershed, a site of intense scientific focus. Here we use cosmogenic nuclide exposure and depth–profile dating methods to determine the timing of glaciation in the East River watershed. We use glacier modeling to reconstruct paleoglacier extents and quantify past climate conditions. Our findings indicate that the East River glacier retreated from its maximum position approximately 17–18 ka, moving to recessional positions between 13 and 15 ka, before experiencing more substantial retreat to high-elevation cirques around 13 ka. Glacier modeling suggests that the maximum ice extents at 17–18 ka could have been sustained by temperature depressions of approximately −6.5°C compared to modern conditions, assuming consistent precipitation. Additionally, the ice position at 13–15 ka could have been supported by temperature depressions of around −4.0°C. These results offer insights into the deglaciation timeline in the East River watershed and broader western Elk Range as well as paleoclimate conditions during the late Pleistocene, which may aid future research on critical zone evolution in the East River watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗

NASA NTRS1999

Relating Paleoclimate Data and Past Temperature Gradients: Some Suggestive Rules

Understanding tropical sensitivity is perhaps the major concern confronting researchers, for both past and future climate change issues. Tropical data has been beset by contradictions, and many techniques applicable to the extratropics are either unavailable or fraught with uncertainty when applied at low latitudes. Paleoclimate data, if interpreted within the context of the latitudinal temperature gradient data they imply, can be used to estimate what happened to tropical temperatures in the past, and provide a first guess for what might happen in the future. The approach is made possible by the modeling result that atmospheric dynamical changes, and the climate impacts they produce, respond primarily to temperature gradient changes. Here we review some "rules" obtained from GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments with different sea surface temperature gradients and different forcing, that can be used to relate paleoclimate reconstructions to the likely temperature gradient changes they suggest.

Rind, David↗

NASA NTRS2020

Perspectives on Data Reproducibility and Replicability in Paleoclimate and Climate Science

This paper summarizes the current state of reproducibility and replicability in the fields of climate and paleoclimate science, including brief histories of their development and applications in climate science, new and recent approaches towards improvement of reproducibility and replicability, and challenges. Recommendations for addressing those challenges include: development of searchable, auto-updated, interlinked, multi-archive public paleoclimate repositories for raw and processed digital datasets; cross-center standardized code base cases, improved data storage techniques, and a focus on replicability for climate simulation storage and access; and support of the development and community awareness of findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable (FAIR) principles by funding agencies and publishers. This paper is largely based on the May 2018 presentations of a panel of researchers to the Committee on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, part of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. The commentary and recommendations made here are in alignment with those of its Consensus Study Report on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science (2019).

data repositories↗

NASA NTRS2022

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in A Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by comparing simulated δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ), known to be sensitive to parameterization schemes, with a global database of speleothem δ 18 O records covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) periods. Relative to modern interannual variability, paleoclimate simulations show greater sensitivity to parameter changes, allowing for an evaluation of model uncertainties over a broader range of climate forcing and the identification of parts of the world that are parameter sensitive. Certain simulations reproduced absolute δ 18 O p values across all time periods, along with LGM and MH δ 18 O p anomalies relative to the PI, better than the default parameterization. No single set of parameterizations worked well in all climate states, likely due to the non-stationarity of cloud feedbacks under varying boundary conditions. Future work that involves varying multiple parameter sets simultaneously with coupled ocean feedbacks will likely provide improved constraints on cloud and convective parameterizations.

cloud and convective parameterization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Clumped isotope thermometry of modern and fossil snail shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: Implications for paleoclimate and paleoelevation reconstructions

Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has been applied to fossil mollusk shells from Tibet to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoelevation of the region. However, inferred paleoelevation and climatic conditions from this proxy are inconsistent with paleontological evidence. Here, we report new clumped isotope data from both modern and fossil (5–4 Ma) freshwater mollusk shells with the results of X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of fossil shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. Although all of the fossil shells analyzed in this study appeared pristine based on visual inspection, XRD data reveal that more than half of these apparently “pristine” fossil shells contain trace amounts of calcite. Clumped isotope temperatures derived from the fossil shells display a large range of variation (>22 °C). Among the fossil shells analyzed, those containing traces of calcite have yielded temperatures that are on average ~10 °C lower than those with no detectable calcite from the same strata. These observations suggest that clumped isotope alteration can occur in aragonite shells in low-temperature environments and even in shells with no visible signs of alteration that contain only traces of calcite. The temperatures derived from fossil shells with no detectable calcite are on average 4 °C higher than those derived from modern shells, indicating that southwest Tibet was warmer 4–5 Ma than today. After accounting for temperature change due to global cooling, the difference in clumped isotope temperatures between pristine fossil shells and modern shells suggests that the paleoelevation of the southwestern Tibetan Plateau in the Pliocene was similar to its present-day elevation.

Geology↗

NASA NTRS1980

The Martian paleoclimate and enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide

Current evidence indicates that the Martian surface is abundant with water presently in the form of ice, while the atmosphere was at one time more massive with a past surface pressure of as much as 1 atm of CO2. In an attempt to understand the Martian paleoclimate, a past CO2-H2O greenhouse was modeled and global temperatures which are consistent with an earlier presence of liquid surface water are found in agreement with the extensive evidence for past fluvial erosion. An important aspect of the CO2-H2O greenhouse model is the detailed inclusion of CO2 hot bands. For a surface pressure of 1 atm of CO2, the present greenhouse model predicts a global mean surface temperature of 294 K, but if the hot bands are excluded, a surface temperature of only 250 K is achieved.

Cess, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Testing the Sun-climate Connection with Paleoclimate Data

If there is a significant sun-climate connection, it should be detectable in high-resolution paleoclimate records. Of particular interest is the last few thousand years, where we have both indices of solar variability (C-14 and Be-10) and climate variations (alpine glaciers, tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.). Although there are a few exceptions, statistical analyses of solar and climate records generally indicates a flickering relationship between the two -- sometimes it seems to be present, sometimes not. The most repeatable solar climate periods occur at approx. 120 and approx. 56 yrs, although there is also evidence for approx. 420 and approx. 200 yrs. power in some records. However, coherence between solar and climate spectra is usually low, and occurrence of solar spectra in climate records is sometimes dependent on choice of analysis program. These results suggest in general a relatively weak sun-climate link on time scales of decades to centuries. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies and with the observation that inferred climate fluctuations of 1.0 to 1.5 C on this time scale would require solar constant variations of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 percent. This change in forcing is almost an order of magnitude greater than observed changes over the last solar cycle and appears to be on the far-outer limit of acceptable changes for a Maunder Minimum-type event.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Numerical Modeling of Glaciers in Martian Paleoclimates

Numerous geologic features suggest the presence of ice flow on the surface of mars. These features include lobate debris aprons, concentric crater fill, and lineated valley fill. The lateral extent of these features can range from 100 meters to over 20 km. Previous work has demonstrated that these features could not have formed in current Martian conditions. It has long been speculated that changes in Mars orbital properties, namely its obliquity, eccentricity, and argument of perihelion, can result in dramatic changes to climate. Recent climate model studies have shown that at periods of increased obliquity north polar water ice is mobilized southward and deposited at low ad mid latitudes. Mid latitude accumulation of ice would provide the necessary conditions for rock glaciers to form. A time-marching, finite element glacier model is used to demonstrate the ability of ice and ice-rock mixtures to flow under Martian paleoclimate conditions. Input to this model is constrained by the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM).

Colaprete, A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Weathering and Sedimentation in Basaltic Terrains On Earth; Implications For the Paleoclimate of Gale Crater, Mars

In the Early Hesperian period, rivers transported detritus from igneous source terrains to a downstream lake within Gale crater, Mars, creating a stratified stack of fluviolacustrine rocks that is currently exposed along the slopes of Mount Sharp[e.g., 1-2]. Debate still exists regarding the paleo climate that supported overland flow of liquid water at Gale crater, in large part because little is known about how chemical and mineralogical paleoclimate indicators from mafic-rock dominated source-to-sink systems are translated into the rock record. Here, we present the findings from Thorpe et al., (2021), where we compiled data from basaltic terrains with varying climates on Earth in order to provide a reference frame for the conditions that may have prevailed during the formation of the sedimentary strata in Gale crater, particularly focusing on the Sheepbed and Pahrump Hills members.

M T Thorpe↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue

Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ 47 -T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ 47 -T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗