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At least 19 records

Global Premature Mortality Due to Anthropogenic Outdoor Air Pollution and the Contribution of Past Climate Change

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr (exp -1) due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

human health↗

Invited Article: SUBGLACIOR: An optical analyzer embedded in an Antarctic ice probe for exploring the past climate

This article describes the advances made in the development of a specific optical spectrometer based on the Optical Feedback-Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy technique for exploring past climate by probing the original composition of the atmosphere stored in the ice sheet of a glacier. Based on significant technological progresses and unconventional approaches, SUBGLACIOR will be a revolutionary tool for ice-core research: the optical spectrometer, directly embedded in the drilling probe, will provide in situ real-time measurements of deuterium isotopic variations (δ{sup 2}H ) and CH{sub 4} concentrations down to 3500 m of ice depth within a single Antarctic season. The instrument will provide simultaneous and real-time vertical profiles of these two key climate signatures in order to evaluate if a target site can offer ice cores as old as 1.5 million years by providing direct insight into past temperatures and climate cycles. The spectrometer has a noise equivalent absorption coefficient of 2.8 × 10{sup −10} cm{sup −1} Hz{sup −1/2}, corresponding to a detection limit of 0.2 ppbv for CH{sub 4} and a precision of 0.2‰ on the δ{sup 2}H of H{sub 2}O within 1 min acquisition time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Warm-Based Glacial Landforms and Past Climate Signals: Icelandic Eskers as Proxies for Small Sinuous Ridges on Mars

The surface of Mars exhibits plentiful geomorphic evidence for glacial processes, but the history of the cryosphere on Mars remains debated [e.g., 1, 2]. Recent hydrological modeling predicts that warm-based ice sheets on Mars may have resulted in subglacial incised channels (e.g., valley networks) and eskers [3]. Evidence on Mars for warm-based glaciation includes candidate moraines, bedrock channels, and candidate eskers [e.g., 4-6]. Eskers are sinuous ridges comprising glaciofluvial sediments deposited by meltwater flowing through tunnels at the bed of warm-based large glaciers [e.g., 7, 8]. They provide direct evidence of basal melting of ice and preserve glaciofluvial sediments. Warm-based glacial transport is primarily driven by meltwater and can chemically weather the underlying bedrock. An alternative signature of past climate on Mars may thus be the geochemical record, due to alteration by interactions with glacial meltwater, preserved in esker sediments and strata. At present, the sedimentology and stratigraphy of terrestrial eskers is poorly understood. This study will combine sedimentology, geochemistry, and geomorphology to better constrain the unique properties of eskers resulting from warm-based glaciation on Mars-like substrates by leveraging a natural laboratory in Iceland.

A. M. Rutledge↗

The Effect of Solution Chemistries and Freezing Temperatures on the Morphology of Cryogenic Opal-A (COA): Implications for Past Climates on Mars

Cryogenic opal-A (COA) is a type of hydrated amorphous silica that forms when silica-rich geothermal fluids erupt sub-aerially and are exposed to air temperatures below 0 °C. As the fluid cools and water-ice forms, the solution increases in ionic strength and reaches saturation of opal-A. This results in the precipitation of opal-A between water ice crystals. Natural COA is found embedded within frozen fluids near hydrothermal sources, and has been shown to preserve signs of biological activity. In this study, two solution chemistries (hydrochloric acid (HCl) and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)) and three freezing temperatures (-20, -80, -196 ºC) were used to synthesize COA in the lab. SEM analyses showed that COA frozen at -20 ºC in HCl solutions produced smooth silica branches similar to what was observed in previous studies. COA precipitated at lower freezing temperatures demonstrated progressively smaller particle sizes and unique morphologies such as halite dendrites within silica, desiccation cracks, and pores. COA made in H2SO4 solutions was more angular and fragmented than COA made in HCl solutions. Particle size also decreased with decreasing freezing temperature. COA textures have implications for terrestrial samples as well as future samples returned from Mars because they can provide information about past climate and fluid chemistry.

J V Hogancamp↗

Kuiper Prize Lecture - Present and past climates of the terrestrial planets

An evaluation is undertaken of the current understanding of factors shaping the current climates of Venus, Mars, and the earth, in conjunction with the ways in which these planetary climates may have been different in the past. Attention is given to modeling approaches of various levels of sophistication which both characterize current climates and elucidate prior climatic epochs; these are assessed in light of observational data in order to judge degrees of success thus far and formulate major remaining questions for future investigations. Venus is noted to offer excellent opportunities for modeling the greenhouse effect.

Pollack, James B.↗

NASA's Sentinels Monitoring Weather and Climate: Past, Present, and Future

Weatherwise is probably the most popular newstand magazine focusing on the subject of weather. It is published six times per year and includes features on weather, climate, and technology. This article (to appear in the January/February Issue) provides a comprehensive review of NASA s past, present, and future contributions in satellite remote sensing for weather and climate processes. The article spans the historical strides of the TIROS program through the scientific and technological innovation of Earth Observer-3 and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). It is one of the most thorough reviews of NASA s weather and climate satellite efforts to appear in the popular literature.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Ancient Martian aeolian sand dune deposits recorded in the stratigraphy of Valles Marineris and implications for past climates

Aeolian sediment transport, deposition, and erosion have been ongoing throughout Mars’ history. This record of widespread aeolian processes is preserved in landforms and geologic units that retain important clues about past environmental conditions including wind patterns. In this study we describe landforms within Melas Chasma, Valles Marineris, that occur in distinct groups with linear to crescentic shapes, arranged with a characteristic wavelength; some possess slope profiles analogous to modern sand dunes, yet show evidence for lithification. Based on the features’ dimensions, asymmetry, and spatial patterns relative to modern equivalents, we interpret these landforms to be two classes of aeolian bedforms: decameter-scale mega-ripples and sand dunes. The presence of superposed erosional features and depositional units indicates these landforms were cemented and likely ancient. Melas paleo-dunes are found atop Hesperian-aged layered deposits, but we estimate them to be younger, likely lithified in the Amazonian period. Although a range of degradation was observed, some paleo-dunes are >10 m tall and maintain steep lee sides (>25°), an uncommon scenario for terrestrial examples as other geologic processes lead to dune obliteration. The preserved paleo-bedform geometries are largely consistent with those of modern aeolian indicators, suggesting no major shifts in wind regime or contributing boundary conditions. Finally, we propose their appearance and context require sequential periods of dune migration, stabilization following catastrophic burial, cementation, differential erosion, exposure, and burial. The presence of wholly preserved duneforms appears to be more common on Mars compared to the Earth and may signal something important about Martian landscape evolution. Plain Language Summary Wind-driven sand dunes are common on modern Mars and the presence of certain sedimentary rock layers indicates these landforms occurred there in the past. Here, we explore features in the canyons of Valles Marineris which show characteristics frequently attributed to dunes, yet evidence for their lithification and burial is clear. Their horizontal extent, height, shape, slopes, and collective spatial patterns led to our interpretation of them as lithified dune fields. The heavily eroded appearance along with superposed elements such as craters and boulders led to the conclusion that these are relatively ancient landforms. Despite this erosion This level of preservation is rare for terrestrial sand dunes due to erosion and tectonics, thus providing an opportunity to reconstruct the various factors contributing to their history. Understanding the circumstances that led to the preservation of these ancient duneforms will yield crucial information regarding planetary sedimentary processes and the geologic history of the region.

Matthew Chojnacki↗

Fe-rich X-ray amorphous material records past climate and persistence of water on Mars

X-ray amorphous material comprises 15-73 wt.% of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater. This material is variably siliceous and iron rich but aluminum poor. The presence of volatiles is consistent with the existence of incipient weathering products. To better understand the implications of this material for past aqueous conditions on Mars, here we investigate X-ray amorphous material formation and longevity within terrestrial iron rich soils with varying ages and environmental conditions using bulk and selective dissolution methods, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy. Results indicate that in situ aqueous alteration is required to concentrate iron into clay-size fraction material. Cooler climates promote the formation and persistence of X-ray amorphous material whereas warmer climates promote the formation of crystalline secondary phases. Iron rich X-ray amorphous material formation and persistence on Mars are therefore consistent with past cool and relatively wet environments followed by long-term cold and dry conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microcraters on Mars: Evidence of past climatic variations

On Mars, we do not expect to see the full spectrum of crater sizes that we see on the Moon, because the Martian atmosphere decelerates smaller incoming meteorites. Mars climate models predict thirty-fold variations in Mars' atmospheric pressure due to large amplitude quasi-periodic variations in Mars' obliquity. More recent studies have shown that uncertainties in Mars' moment of inertia may have resulted in an underestimation of this range. In this study, we find that potential variations in the mass of the Martian atmosphere should have dramatic effects on the production rates of centimeter sized craters on the surface of Mars, and suggest that observations of the densities of Martian microcraters would provide an important validation of the astronomical theory for Martian climate change.

Vasavada, A. R.↗

Microcraters on Mars - Evidence for past climate variations

Consideration is given to a simulation of the meteor bombardment of Mars which shows that during periods of the lowest theoretical atmospheric mass, the production rates of centimeter-sized hypervelocity impact craters are increased significantly. It is inferred that limited in situ observations of microcraters visible on Martian rock faces could validate major aspects of the astronomic theory for climate change on Mars.

Vasavada, Ashwin R.↗

Thermal infrared spectroscopic observations of Mars from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO): Constraints on past climates and weathering products

Spectral observations providing evidence for the presence of volatile-bearing minerals on the surface of Mars were obtained in 1988 and 1990 from the KAO. The 1988 data suggest the presence of 1-3 weight percent (wt%) of carbonate/bicarbonate and 10-15 wt% sulfate/bisulfate associated with martian atmospheric dust. Estimates of the optical depths are approximately 0.60 and approximately 0.35 in 1988 and 1990, respectively.

Roush, Ted L.↗

Water Isotopes in Precipitation: Data/Model Comparison for Present-Day and Past Climates

Variations of HDO and H2O-18 concentrations are observed in precipitation both on a geographical and on a temporal basis. These variations, resulting from successive isotopic fractionation processes at each phase change of water during its atmospheric cycle, are well documented through the IAEA/WMO network and other sources. Isotope concentrations are, in middle and high latitudes, linearly related to the annual mean temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship to infer paleotemperatures from isotope paleodata extractable from ice cores, deep groundwater and other such sources. For this application to be valid, however, the spatial relationship must also hold in time at a given location as the location undergoes a series of climatic changes. Progress in water isotope modeling aimed at examining and evaluating this assumption has been recently reviewed with a focus on polar regions and, more specifically, on Greenland. This article was largely based on the results obtained using the isotopic version of the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. We extend this review in comparing the results of two different isotopic AGCMs (NASA/GISS and ECHAM) and in examining, with a more global perspective, the validity of the above assumption, i.e. the equivalence of the spatial and temporal isotope-temperature relationship. We also examine recent progress made in modeling the relationship between the conditions prevailing in moisture source regions for precipitation and the deuterium-excess of that precipitation.

Jouzel, J.↗

Investigating Atmospheric Effects on Impact Ejecta Morphology: Possible Tool for Determining Past Climate Conditions on Mars?

The combined use of impact crater morphology and mechanics provides important information on the physical conditions of both planetary atmospheres and planetary and asteroid surfaces present during crater formation, while an understanding of the rate of crater production on the surface of asteroids provides information of their surface and spin rate evolution. The research performed with support from this project improves our understanding of (1) the mechanics of impact cratering in order to gain insights on the evolution of these physical surface conditions on planets with atmospheres and asteroids, and (2) how impact flux across an asteroid surface may vary due to anisotropic distribution of impactors in the solar system. As part of this project, we have undertaken three studies. In the first study, we investigate atmospheric effects on the morphology of ejecta excavated during a cratering event in order to determine the atmospheric and target conditions from observed crater morphologies. In the second study, we use the physical and morphological consequences of oblique impacts on an asteroid to understand how the asteroid Mathilde (recently imaged by the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous - NEAR- spacecraft) could have survived the formation of five giant craters. In a third study, we use a Monte Carlo method to calculate the impact flux on an asteroid given a distribution of impactors on elliptical orbits. In the following section, we present the result obtained from all three studies.

Appleby, John F.↗

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

Dynamics of the atmosphere of Mars: Review of some outstanding problems

Theoretical and modeling studies based on fragmentary data are responsible for our current level of understanding of the dynamics of Mars' atmosphere at the planetary scale. Largely because the boundary conditions and governing parameters are such that the large-scale circulation regime is similar to that or Earth, it has been possible to derive a remarkable amount of information from a relatively small number of observations. Nevertheless, the level of detail available from theoretical and modeling studies far exceeds the validation capability of existing data. Global observations from Mars Observer instruments are expected to go far to remedy this mismatch. This review will present and examine several outstanding dynamical questions, which Mars Observer measurements should help to answer. These include the following: What are the temporal and three-dimensional spatial distributions of thermal tides? What is the distribution of momentum flux divergence due to internal gravity waves? Are normal modes an important component of the general circulation? If so, how do they vary with season? Do normal modes contribute to the initiation of planetary-scale dust storms? What are the details of the global circulation response to large and rapid injections of dust? Current understanding of these problems, the potential role of Mars Observer observations for addressing them, and the implications of answers for our understanding of the present climate and past climate regimes will be discussed.

Leovy, Conway B.↗

Evolving Technologies for In-Situ Studies of Mars Ice

Icy sites on Mars continue to be of high scientific importance. These sites include the polar caps, the southern mid-latitude subsurface permafrost, and the seasonal frost. These sites have interest due to their roles in climate processes, past climates, surface and near-surface water, astrobiology, geomorphology, and other topics. As is the case for many planetary features, remote sensing, while of great value, cannot answer all questions; in-situ examination is essential, and the motivation for in-situ observations generally leads to the subsurface, which, fortunately, is accessible on Mars. It is clear in fact that a Mars polar cap subsurface mission is both scientifically compelling and practical. Recent data from orbiting platforms has provided a remarkable level of information about the Mars ice caps; we know, for example, the size, shape and annual cycle of the cap topography as well as we know that of Earth, and we have more information on stratification that we have of, for example, the ice of East Antarctica. To understand the roles that the Mars polar caps play, it is necessary to gather information on the ice cap surface, strata, composition and bed. In this talk the status of in-situ operations and observations will be summarized, and, since we have conveniently at hand another planet with polar caps, permafrost and ice, the role of testing and validation of experimental procedures on Earth will be addressed.

Carsey, F. D.↗